Why 1.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✕ Net -227.9% on capital over the tested window (2015-01-09 → 2026-06-08, 554 trades)
- ✕ Wins 48% of the time — but the average loss (₹3,444) is 1.2× the average win (₹2,872). Classic short-premium shape: many small wins, rare big hits
- ✕ Worst single trade ₹-13,566 — one bad move erases ~5 average wins
- ✕ Max drawdown -233% along the way — deep for a 'low-risk' pitch
- ✕ Short sample (554 trades over 12 months) with no true market crash in the window — the tail event that hurts option sellers most is untested
Verdict
Real option backtest. Reconstructed on actual NIFTY option premiums (2015-01-09 → 2026-06-08, 554 weekly trades) — legs: buy 1x CE-150 + sell 2x CE-100 + buy 1x PE+150 + sell 2x PE+100 + buy 1x CE-200 + buy 1x PE+200, with real multi-leg costs.
Net -227.9% on ₹1L (-20.0%/yr over 11.4 years) (loses money), win 48%, avg win ₹2,872 / avg loss ₹-3,444 (avg loss BIGGER than avg win), max drawdown -233% (worst week ₹-13,566). High win-rate is the normal face of short options; the drawdown and the negative skew are the real risk that a short 'backtest' window hides.
Real premiums: minute-level history resampled to daily closes (2015–2026; monthly contracts before 2019 — weeklies didn't exist).
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
Month by month (real NIFTY option premiums · net P/L after costs, on ₹1,00,000)
| Month | Trades | Win % | Net P/L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 52 | 60% | ₹-7,192 |
| 2016 | 52 | 48% | ₹-50,233 |
| 2017 | 50 | 42% | ₹-25,864 |
| 2018 | 51 | 49% | ₹-18,857 |
| 2019 | 36 | 50% | ₹-10,369 |
| 2020 | 32 | 59% | ₹-5,394 |
| 2021 | 52 | 52% | ₹-16,931 |
| 2022 | 52 | 42% | ₹-20,451 |
| 2023 | 52 | 46% | ₹-40,287 |
| 2024 | 51 | 47% | ₹+13,634 |
| 2025 | 52 | 46% | ₹-18,351 |
| 2026 | 22 | 27% | ₹-27,648 |
Full transcript (3167 words)
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