What's the Secret to Riding Big Trends with Pro Option Buyers?
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Verdict
Real option-buying backtest. Decoded entry: price crossing its EMA on NIFTY 10-min bars → buy the ATM weekly CE (long) / PE (short), stop 30% / target 60% of premium, square-off by 15:15. Priced on real 1-minute NIFTY option premiums (GFDL, 2015–2026 — every tick of theta, IV crush and gamma is inside these prices), real charges and spread.
9,555 trades on ₹1L: net -739.2% over 12 years (-61.6%/yr, loses money), win 40%, payoff 1.39 (avg win ₹2,207 / avg loss ₹-1,592), max drawdown -857%, worst trade ₹-11,518. 2015: ₹-59,704. 2016: ₹-66,193. 2017: ₹-68,744. 2018: ₹-26,988. 2019: ₹-80,388. 2020: ₹-56,098. 2021: ₹-36,831. 2022: ₹-148,784. 2023: ₹-96,545. 2024: ₹-110,292. 2025: ₹-46,932. 2026: ₹+58,325.
Option buying is convex — low win-rates are normal; the question is whether winners outrun the premium bleed. Backtested on 12 years of minute-level premium data (2015–2026; monthly contracts before 2019 — weeklies didn't exist; constant 65-unit lot); entries tested intraday as taught. Flagged for human review.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, on real NIFTY option premiums — 1 lot, ₹1L)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Net P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 374 | 39% | ₹-59,704 |
| 2016 | 656 | 41% | ₹-66,193 |
| 2017 | 762 | 40% | ₹-68,744 |
| 2018 | 680 | 42% | ₹-26,988 |
| 2019 | 760 | 37% | ₹-80,388 |
| 2020 | 773 | 40% | ₹-56,098 |
| 2021 | 1184 | 41% | ₹-36,831 |
| 2022 | 924 | 40% | ₹-148,784 |
| 2023 | 924 | 37% | ₹-96,545 |
| 2024 | 840 | 39% | ₹-110,292 |
| 2025 | 1182 | 41% | ₹-46,932 |
| 2026 | 496 | 43% | ₹+58,325 |
Full transcript (9507 words)
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