What are spreads in option trading? How to trade them
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Verdict
Real option-buying backtest. Decoded entry: an EMA crossover on NIFTY 10-min bars → buy the ATM weekly CE (long) / PE (short), stop 50% / target 60% of premium, square-off by 15:15. Priced on real 1-minute NIFTY option premiums (GFDL, 2015–2026 — every tick of theta, IV crush and gamma is inside these prices), real charges and spread.
1,103 trades on ₹1L: net +68.9% over 12 years (+5.7%/yr, is modestly positive), win 46%, payoff 1.25 (avg win ₹2,517 / avg loss ₹-2,010), max drawdown -88%, worst trade ₹-11,127. 2015: ₹-1,312. 2016: ₹+3,813. 2017: ₹-5,984. 2018: ₹+1,530. 2019: ₹-10,654. 2020: ₹-8,561. 2021: ₹-8,930. 2022: ₹-8,032. 2023: ₹+21,385. 2024: ₹+64,557. 2025: ₹+59,898. 2026: ₹-38,854.
Option buying is convex — low win-rates are normal; the question is whether winners outrun the premium bleed. Backtested on 12 years of minute-level premium data (2015–2026; monthly contracts before 2019 — weeklies didn't exist; constant 65-unit lot); entries tested intraday as taught. Flagged for human review.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, on real NIFTY option premiums — 1 lot, ₹1L)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Net P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 51 | 43% | ₹-1,312 |
| 2016 | 66 | 47% | ₹+3,813 |
| 2017 | 85 | 49% | ₹-5,984 |
| 2018 | 78 | 49% | ₹+1,530 |
| 2019 | 91 | 41% | ₹-10,654 |
| 2020 | 101 | 40% | ₹-8,561 |
| 2021 | 146 | 45% | ₹-8,930 |
| 2022 | 102 | 50% | ₹-8,032 |
| 2023 | 99 | 52% | ₹+21,385 |
| 2024 | 91 | 46% | ₹+64,557 |
| 2025 | 129 | 50% | ₹+59,898 |
| 2026 | 64 | 31% | ₹-38,854 |
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