BEST VWAP Trading Strategy [87% Win Rate] — backtested on Indian market data | FakeTrades
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BEST VWAP Trading Strategy [87% Win Rate]

Sean Solano · watch on YouTube ↗
Analysed 06 Aug 2026, 08:02 AM IST
★★½☆☆ 2.5 / 5

Why 2.5/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)

  • A real but modest per-trade edge: +0.08R across 7,678 trades
  • Only 35% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
  • 4 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2024, 2025, 2026) — the edge is regime-dependent
  • Max drawdown -24% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
  • Most of the big total return is compounding in a rising market (beta) — the per-trade edge above is what would survive a different regime

Detected components (auto-read from transcript)

SMA/MAVWAPRSIMACDVolume

Claims it makes (quotes pulled from the transcript)

  • “this simple trading indicator has made me over $100,000 and I guarantee you it is the only indicator you will ever need to be a successful Trader and in this vi”

Verdict

Auto-backtested. Detected: MACD signal-line crossover with a 200-EMA trend filter. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 7,678 trades, win 35%, payoff 2.26, expectancy +0.08R/trade (avg +0.26%/trade).

This is a marginal edge. Reasonably consistent (56% of years positive).

Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.

See strategies that scored 4★+ →
Know someone trading this?

🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)

Tracking since 2026-08-06 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.

Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)

₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)

Return+74.6%
CAGR+7.3%
Max drawdown-24.0%
Trades845 · 274 won
₹200,000 → ₹349,227  ·  2018-07-23 → 2026-06-08
201820192020202120222023202420252026
-6%+8%+59%+16%-5%+18%-5%-10%-4%

Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.

Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)

YearTradesWin %ExpectancyAvg return / trade
201823630% -0.15R -1.21%
201977834% +0.02R -0.05%
202079240% +0.30R +1.94%
2021142938% +0.19R +0.88%
202277334% +0.03R +0.16%
2023114240% +0.29R +1.02%
2024134231% -0.03R -0.44%
202588428% -0.14R -1.07%
202630231% -0.14R -0.75%

Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)

#StockTradesWin%Avg/tradeBestTotal2026
1 ████████ 5036% +6.4% +104% +319% +40%
2 ████████ 5740% +1.9% +27% +109% +26%
3 ████████ 5233% +3.5% +71% +183% +25%
4 ████████ 3126% -0.4% +22% -11% +22%
5 ████████ 6627% +0.3% +28% +21% +20%
6 ████████ 4831% +1.7% +52% +83% +19%
7 ████████ 4633% +0.5% +27% +23% +19%
8 BANDHANBNK free peek 1010% -1.9% +19% -19% +18%
9 ████████ 4139% +2.3% +52% +96% +15%
10 ████████ 6138% +0.7% +24% +40% +15%
11 ████████ 6826% -0.2% +29% -14% +12%
12 ████████ 4749% +5.6% +44% +263% +11%
13 ████████ 5629% -1.3% +9% -71% +11%
14 ████████ 5733% +0.3% +23% +17% +10%
15 ████████ 4628% +1.7% +67% +79% +9%
16 ████████ 3845% +1.4% +26% +52% +8%
17 ████████ 5038% +1.0% +19% +51% +8%
18 ████████ 1937% -0.5% +9% -9% +8%
19 ████████ 5942% +1.1% +24% +68% +7%
20 ████████ 6542% +0.7% +20% +47% +7%
21 ████████ 2832% -1.6% +11% -44% -29%
22 ████████ 5433% -0.7% +16% -37% -23%
23 ████████ 4736% -0.6% +19% -27% -23%
24 ████████ 5133% +0.6% +39% +33% -22%
25 ████████ 7131% +0.2% +25% +12% -21%
26 ████████ 3941% -0.0% +16% -2% -19%
27 ████████ 5125% -1.8% +10% -90% -17%
28 ████████ 4637% -0.3% +21% -15% -17%
29 ████████ 5030% -0.2% +20% -11% -17%
30 ████████ 5034% +0.4% +29% +19% -15%
You can see the numbers — see the names. Unlock every stock in this breakdown and download it as Excel. The worst stock in this table returned -90% under these exact rules — one wrong pick costs many times the unlock.

Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)

IndexTradesWin%Expectancy (R/trade)Avg return/trade
NIFTY8432% +0.00R -0.22%
BANKNIFTY7937% +0.01R -0.09%
Full transcript (3078 words)
this simple trading indicator has made me over $100,000 and I guarantee you it is the only indicator you will ever need to be a successful Trader and in this video not only am I going to share the indicator with you but I'm also going to give you my custom setup and a full strategy from start to finish so that you can finally start making money as a Trader some of you guys that are Traders have charts that look like this and at the end of the day you will never be able to take a trade and successfully know exactly where the Market's going to go it's almost guaranteed you're going to fail and most of you guys are most likely being told that you need to have macd RSI the Strat Binger bands all these different indicators on your chart at the exact same time because they're supposed to help you take better positions this is completely wrong and I can show you exactly why only having one line is going to help you much more than having 15 million different indicators on your chart so stay tuned so here's the thing when you're looking at all these lines right here you're noticing that there's some that are crossing to the upside some that are crossing to the downside all these different lines that are basically telling you to do one thing and some telling you to do the other and you're not actually able to focus on the chart this is why we need to only have one indicator on our chart rather than having 15 different indicators at the same time because we can actually focus on the chart you will never be able to focus and take a position confidently so let me show you one indicator that is going to absolutely change your world all right so we're going to start with the bear chart here go over to the indicators Tab and type in something called vwap also known as volume weighted average price you're going to add this to your chart right here now what you're going to see is two green lines and a blue line with a little cloud in the middle this is what vwap looks like at the standard so essentially this indicator is very simple it is going to give you an overview of what price action looks like throughout the entire day it's very similar to a moving average where a moving average basically shows you exactly what the trend is but this indicator is much smoother and takes volume into account so when you see a massive candle like this this is actually being fully represented in this line and just to be clear this works on stocks crypto Forex it doesn't matter what Market you're Trading trading in this indicator will work for you now here's the thing guys you can use vwap by default but I do think that there is a better way to be using it and that's through the custom setup I'm about to show you so what you're going to do is head over here to the top left corner and click on the settings button right here it's going to pop up with this big old menu right there now what you want to do is disable upper band One disable lower band one and disable bands fill one this should leave you with a blue line and nothing but a blue line this is what we're going to be using for our trading we don't want anything else on the chart we just want this blue line what you're going to notice is that this chart is very very very simple and that's exactly what we need as Traders we need to be seeing the chart as simple as we possibly can and we need to be making decisions based on an understanding of price action rather than just having a ridiculous convoluted chart with 15 million different indicators this is the way to trade so now guys you have the indicator fully set up but you need to know how to actually use it don't worry I got you so to make this as simple as possible so that you guys can watch this entire video and get the entire thing down we're going to use this white line right here you are going to want to look for two things when you're getting ready to enter with vop you're going to look for a bounce and a reject or a break in a retest and this is exactly what they look like when you're coming up to reject vwap you're going to see a move up to the vwap line and it reject straight off of it okay now it's the exact opposite when you're looking for a bounce if the price comes all the way down to vwap we see an instant bounce off that line and a continuation up these are areas that we're looking to enter based on price action now on the flip side our second entry is going to be a break and retest and as you can see right here it's going to look something along the lines of this we're going to break we're going to retest the vwap line and we're going to continue going to the upside same exact thing for the downside guys we're going to come down break the line retest it and then continue to the downside these are the four things we are looking for when we get to vwap so just to give you guys an example of what this bounce is going to look like when you come up you are then going to retest vwap and take the bounce off of it now I'm going to show you how to do this later on in the video and it's going to be picture perfect and you're going to be taking these sniper entries right at this area but you just got to wait I got to show you all the other stuff first so that way you know everything and this here is your reject example you can see we come up to the vwap line and we instantly reject that line and head to the downside by the end of this video you are going to be using these things and know exactly what's going to happen and know exactly when to take a position based on them and of course guys you have the break and retest where we come through break vwap we come back up and retest it and fail to continue to the other direction all three of these setups that you're seeing right now the break and retest bounce and the reject are going to be your number one A+ setups once you are able to master these three things you will 1,000% become a better Trader and I can guarantee it all right so now you know exactly what types of setups you need to be looking for now it's time to actually Implement price action and show you how to get the absolute best setups possible and make a ridiculous amount of money with this strategy all right so overall what we're looking for is we want to be trading at this line regardless if we're rejecting bouncing breaking and retesting we want to be trading based off this line you don't want to be taking positions over here because this is not really the smartest place to take a trade you want to be taking a trade when you're coming up and retesting vwap now what we're looking for when we get to vwap is going to be something called a candle failure and essentially what that means is we want to be seeing this candle right here try and come down and show enough strength to break vwap to the downside if it were able to break this line right here this would then indicate that we're probably looking to continue to the downward Direction but if vwap is able to hold and the candle can go back above it and stay above it this will indicate that we're looking to go to the upside on this position instead and so for the break and retest it's very very simple what we're looking for is a break in vwap with volume as you can see this candle is massive so what are we thinking which which direction you guys think this is most likely going to go it's most likely going to go up right so when the price of Tesla starts to fail and come back down to the vwap area the one thing we want to look at is is this a failure to continue going lower or are we starting to move to the upside again and the way that we're going to see that is based on this right here this is called a wick the more your Wick is long on this area means that you have insane pressure to the sell side and the longer your Wick is on this area means that you have more buy pressure so what this means is that the price of Tesla came all the way down here and by the end of this candle it has made it all the way back up and is closed at this point this means that we have very very high chance to continue to the upside because we tried to break vwap and we failed it so now that we've reclaimed this vwap line right here we know that we have a chance to continue to the upside this is where you're going to take the break and retest to the upside Direction now there's two different places to enter I'm going to give you the risky entry and I'm going to give you the safe entry on this position the risky entry here guys is when we come down and break vwap and then reclaim that level again you are going to enter this position when we break above vwap and set your stop loss below the low of where we reached when we came down and tried to break to the downside then you're going to set your targets to the next highs and let that trade run from there as you guys can see this position ended up going over 400 ticks and it was about a 5 to1 Riser reward trade which is fantastic if you wanted to get a safer entry what you would do is wait for the 5- minute close to be over the the vwap line this right here will indicate that we're most likely looking to go to the upside okay so when we close above this vwap line you want to see a break in the highs to show a continuation to the upside all right when you break that right there you can set your stop loss below vwap and set your target to the exact same spot which is going to be to the highs and as you can see this position right here 100% perfect there was not a single moment when you were in draw down now here's an example of a reject with vwap you're going to notice the exact same pattern coming up we're going to come all the way down and retest this vwap line This is where we're going to start looking to take our trade but we need to pay attention to one thing what is the reaction and are we seeing a failure at this line so like I showed you guys before what does a failure look like in this position are we looking for something like this probably not because what this is going to mean right here is that you are looking for Upward pressure what we need to see here for a reject is going to be a longer Wick towards the upside when we retest vwap and as you can see right here we tried to break it we failed and then we came back down this indicates exactly what we talked about earlier a failure so you can see here long Wick at the vwap area this means that we are seeing a candle rejection and once we close below that vwap line we know that we're most likely going to continue to the downside now the question is when do you enter when do you actually get in the position very easy answer take a look at how price actions reacting after we actually reject vwap look at this candle right here this right here is a picture perfect example of what a candle failure looks like you can see small body means that we don't have a lot of volume pushing to the upside we can also see that this Wick is so long to the upside that sellers have an insane amount of pressure so what we notice here is that we have a massive amount of pressure off of this vwap line what does that indicate to you guys that we're probably going to continue to the downward Direction what you're going to be looking for is a break in lows with a stop loss over vwap and a Target down to your lows here very very simple guys all we're looking for is a continuation to the trend that we were already going in so you see here we have a massive Trend to the downside we're not going to try and predict that the stock is going to go and flip at any point in time all I'm trying to do is hop in with the trend and catch one of these moves as you can see right here 3.42 to1 risk reward on this trade alone all I did was wait for price to come back up to the vwap line and see what reaction we were getting at that level were we getting a reaction that looked like we were going to continue to the upside or are we seeing a candle failure that indicates we're going to continue to the same direction once you get that confirmation you can enter when you start to see a break in the direction that you want to go in and take that all the way down to the nearest lows the reason why this strategy is borderline perfect is because because it's all based on price action the indicator is helping us a little bit but as you can see guys we don't have 15 million indicators on our chart we're looking at one indicator and we're seeing exactly how price action is reacting at that area and as you guys can see this is not clouding our Judgment at all so here are some things to avoid when using vwap we know that we can enter on break and retest we can enter on Rejects and it's going to work perfectly every time right no here's the thing guys you have to understand how vwap works this this right here is a moving average it's going to tell you what the average volume weighted Price is Right so it's going to tell you if the price is moving smoothly it's going to tell you if the price is moving in a strong Trend or in this case it's going to tell you that the price is moving in a flat line and what that means guys is that there's probably not a lot of entries to be found in this price action when vwap is a flat line like this it means that there's not a lot of volume not a lot of strength in any direction so while there are some setups you can see there's one right there where we bounce to the upside you can see that we have a reject in the beginning of the day other than that there are no setups here so you want to be avoiding the days where vwap is just a flat line another thing you really want to avoid when trading with vwob is if you are above this line you should not be taking positions to the downside and if you are below this line you should not be taking positions to the upside and the reason why guys is that this line right here is giving you an overall direction of where the trend is going and there is a saying that goes the trend is your friend and when you're trading with vwap this gives you the trend all you have to do is make sure that you're on the right side of it so that you're not getting caught in areas like this trying to go to the upside when vwap is very clearly telling you and you just want to trade with the trend at the end of the day guys you're not going to be able to take every single break and retest you see on vwap you have to make sure that you are following price action no matter what because that's the most important thing in your trading indicators are great but you need to have price action alongside with it just like my student here who had made almost $4,000 in two days with this strategy he did not try and take every single break on vwap what he looked for was a perfect reaction a perfect candle failure that set him up for a move to One Direction for example something like this where you're seeing a massive move here and a perfect candle setup showing you failure showing you signs of continuation and you're able to take this all the way up you need to be paying attention to price action I cannot stress this enough vwap was a great indicator and the strategy I just showed you can make you a ton of money but at the end of the day price action will always be king that's why I made this video right here going over a 100% price action only zero indicator strategy this thing has made me so much money so if you want to watch that click the video on the screen now later

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