VIP Scalping setup
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Why 1.5/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✕ Negative expectancy: -0.06R per trade across 7,156 trades
- ✕ Payoff 0.37 — the average winner is SMALLER than the average loser
- ✕ 7 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2019, 2020, 2022) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -83% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: Hammer candle rejection + confirmation candle pattern with 25-25-50% partial booking rule on 1-3 min scalping timeframe; core logic is mean-reversion from support/resistance rejection zones, mapped to Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 7,156 trades, win 68%, payoff 0.37, expectancy -0.06R/trade (avg -0.56%/trade).
This is a losing edge. The payoff ratio is thin. Regime-dependent — positive in only 22% of years.
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)
Tracking since 2026-07-06 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -16% | -14% | -0% | -20% | -4% | -12% | -22% | -26% | -36% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 259 | 73% | -0.03R | -0.39% |
| 2019 | 954 | 69% | -0.05R | -0.55% |
| 2020 | 858 | 69% | -0.06R | -0.73% |
| 2021 | 708 | 76% | +0.04R | +0.11% |
| 2022 | 1094 | 65% | -0.09R | -0.72% |
| 2023 | 800 | 73% | +0.01R | -0.19% |
| 2024 | 914 | 68% | -0.08R | -0.65% |
| 2025 | 1068 | 66% | -0.08R | -0.68% |
| 2026 | 501 | 59% | -0.17R | -1.09% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 42 | 64% | -0.5% | +7% | -23% | +27% |
| 2 | ████████ | 41 | 61% | -1.0% | +24% | -41% | +18% |
| 3 | ████████ | 55 | 75% | +0.8% | +7% | +43% | +14% |
| 4 | ████████ | 37 | 51% | -0.7% | +21% | -26% | +14% |
| 5 | ████████ | 32 | 84% | +0.7% | +4% | +22% | +12% |
| 6 | ████████ | 54 | 69% | -0.1% | +11% | -5% | +12% |
| 7 | ████████ | 40 | 68% | -1.2% | +5% | -47% | +12% |
| 8 | THERMAX free peek | 45 | 71% | -0.1% | +11% | -6% | +11% |
| 9 | ████████ | 39 | 56% | -1.1% | +4% | -42% | +11% |
| 10 | ████████ | 79 | 68% | +0.0% | +7% | +3% | +10% |
| 11 | ████████ | 37 | 65% | -0.7% | +5% | -26% | +9% |
| 12 | ████████ | 51 | 71% | +0.3% | +9% | +15% | +7% |
| 13 | ████████ | 54 | 70% | -0.2% | +11% | -9% | +7% |
| 14 | ████████ | 24 | 62% | -1.5% | +5% | -37% | +7% |
| 15 | ████████ | 59 | 59% | -0.8% | +9% | -50% | +7% |
| 16 | ████████ | 44 | 57% | -1.5% | +8% | -67% | +7% |
| 17 | ████████ | 60 | 67% | -0.2% | +14% | -10% | +6% |
| 18 | ████████ | 39 | 49% | -1.5% | +12% | -58% | +6% |
| 19 | ████████ | 34 | 74% | +1.0% | +12% | +33% | +5% |
| 20 | ████████ | 46 | 74% | +0.2% | +5% | +11% | +5% |
| 21 | ████████ | 49 | 69% | -0.0% | +9% | -2% | -20% |
| 22 | ████████ | 57 | 49% | -1.6% | +5% | -93% | -17% |
| 23 | ████████ | 42 | 64% | -1.4% | +6% | -58% | -17% |
| 24 | ████████ | 42 | 60% | -0.8% | +11% | -35% | -17% |
| 25 | ████████ | 67 | 64% | -0.1% | +7% | -10% | -17% |
| 26 | ████████ | 53 | 57% | -0.9% | +6% | -47% | -16% |
| 27 | ████████ | 67 | 64% | -0.7% | +5% | -49% | -15% |
| 28 | ████████ | 27 | 59% | -1.1% | +4% | -29% | -15% |
| 29 | ████████ | 66 | 67% | -0.3% | +7% | -18% | -14% |
| 30 | ████████ | 38 | 58% | -1.2% | +6% | -47% | -13% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 61 | 67% | -0.14R | -0.60% |
| BANKNIFTY | 55 | 60% | -0.10R | -0.73% |
Full transcript (5053 words)
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