Vijay Thakare Uses This SETUP For Intraday Trading | Ft. Vijay Thakare
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Verdict
Real option-buying backtest. Decoded entry: an EMA crossover on NIFTY 10-min bars → buy the ATM weekly CE (long) / PE (short), stop 30% / target 60% of premium, square-off by 15:15. Priced on real 1-minute NIFTY option premiums (GFDL, 2015–2026 — every tick of theta, IV crush and gamma is inside these prices), real charges and spread.
1,804 trades on ₹1L: net -28.0% over 12 years (-2.3%/yr, roughly breaks even), win 41%, payoff 1.42 (avg win ₹2,411 / avg loss ₹-1,703), max drawdown -103%, worst trade ₹-10,353. 2015: ₹+5,255. 2016: ₹+9,679. 2017: ₹-4,855. 2018: ₹+3,037. 2019: ₹-19,900. 2020: ₹+5,546. 2021: ₹+38,150. 2022: ₹-11,504. 2023: ₹+7,436. 2024: ₹+3,544. 2025: ₹-64,939. 2026: ₹+566.
Option buying is convex — low win-rates are normal; the question is whether winners outrun the premium bleed. Backtested on 12 years of minute-level premium data (2015–2026; monthly contracts before 2019 — weeklies didn't exist; constant 65-unit lot); entries tested intraday as taught. Flagged for human review.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, on real NIFTY option premiums — 1 lot, ₹1L)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Net P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 74 | 49% | ₹+5,255 |
| 2016 | 108 | 46% | ₹+9,679 |
| 2017 | 141 | 35% | ₹-4,855 |
| 2018 | 137 | 44% | ₹+3,037 |
| 2019 | 142 | 34% | ₹-19,900 |
| 2020 | 153 | 37% | ₹+5,546 |
| 2021 | 209 | 47% | ₹+38,150 |
| 2022 | 182 | 44% | ₹-11,504 |
| 2023 | 171 | 41% | ₹+7,436 |
| 2024 | 145 | 38% | ₹+3,544 |
| 2025 | 236 | 37% | ₹-64,939 |
| 2026 | 106 | 45% | ₹+566 |
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