I've Traded This One 'Box' Strategy Every Day For 10 Years (Stupid Simple) — backtested on Indian market data | FakeTrades
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I've Traded This One 'Box' Strategy Every Day For 10 Years (Stupid Simple)

Straight Kim · watch on YouTube ↗
Analysed 28 Sep 2026, 04:45 PM IST
★½☆☆☆ 1.5 / 5
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Heads up: this strategy was originally created for the US stock market. We applied the exact same logic to Indian stocks & indices and the backtest completed successfully — every result below is on Indian market data.

Why 1.5/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)

  • ✕ Roughly ZERO per-trade edge (+0.01R) — real costs eat whatever is there
  • ✕ Only 35% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
  • ✕ 5 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2019, 2022, 2025) — the edge is regime-dependent
  • ✕ Max drawdown -84% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way

Detected components (auto-read from transcript)

FuturesIntraday RSIMACDVolume

Verdict

Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: US market opening-range box (ORB) breakout strategy: draw a box on the 1-hour US open candle (high/low), then trade 5-min pullbacks to support/resistance within the box and breakouts with retest pullb Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 46,731 trades, win 35%, payoff 1.86, expectancy +0.01R/trade (avg -0.18%/trade).

This is essentially breakeven. Regime-dependent — positive in only 33% of years.

Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.

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Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)

₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)

Return-82.6%
CAGR-19.8%
Max drawdown-84.0%
Trades1514 · 398 won
₹200,000 → ₹34,795  ·  2018-07-09 → 2026-06-08
201820192020202120222023202420252026
-13%-36%-14%+22%-21%-7%-11%-28%-37%

Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.

Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)

YearTradesWin %ExpectancyAvg return / trade
2018259731% -0.08R -0.74%
2019525634% -0.06R -0.56%
2020576140% +0.14R +0.76%
2021584937% +0.08R +0.22%
2022596634% -0.04R -0.53%
2023622038% +0.07R +0.06%
2024609935% -0.00R -0.22%
2025618334% -0.06R -0.57%
2026280029% -0.10R -0.63%

Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)

#StockTradesWin%Avg/tradeBestTotal2026
1 ████████ 9831% +0.3% +36% +26% +143%
2 ████████ 30244% +2.4% +66% +718% +127%
3 ████████ 29130% -0.1% +41% -36% +118%
4 ████████ 25040% +2.6% +78% +651% +109%
5 ████████ 29735% +0.3% +28% +91% +59%
6 ████████ 24637% -0.1% +29% -13% +55%
7 ████████ 32636% +0.5% +26% +176% +46%
8 DEEPAKNTR free peek 28833% +0.3% +47% +86% +46%
9 ████████ 28542% +3.4% +178% +962% +41%
10 ████████ 26043% +5.0% +119% +1299% +40%
11 ████████ 27034% +1.0% +81% +269% +36%
12 ████████ 31634% -0.4% +19% -135% +33%
13 ████████ 32536% +0.4% +31% +123% +27%
14 ████████ 32535% -0.3% +25% -100% +26%
15 ████████ 28636% +0.0% +27% +6% +25%
16 ████████ 30636% +0.3% +35% +96% +24%
17 ████████ 31835% +0.2% +49% +52% +17%
18 ████████ 29229% -0.7% +16% -198% +17%
19 ████████ 30436% -0.4% +19% -120% +16%
20 ████████ 31238% +0.5% +34% +158% +14%
21 ████████ 32134% -0.5% +40% -157% -53%
22 ████████ 30227% -0.8% +19% -235% -52%
23 ████████ 28340% +1.4% +55% +406% -48%
24 ████████ 30027% -0.8% +12% -248% -47%
25 ████████ 33535% -0.0% +22% -1% -47%
26 ████████ 23327% -0.7% +19% -155% -45%
27 ████████ 30738% -0.1% +25% -18% -44%
28 ████████ 31833% -0.3% +36% -85% -43%
29 ████████ 31926% -0.7% +13% -211% -42%
30 ████████ 32834% -0.2% +25% -51% -42%
You can see the numbers — see the names. Unlock every stock in this breakdown and download it as Excel. The worst stock in this table returned -248% under these exact rules — one wrong pick costs many times the unlock.

Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)

IndexTradesWin%Expectancy (R/trade)Avg return/trade
NIFTY48334% -0.08R -0.47%
BANKNIFTY46236% +0.00R -0.27%
Full transcript (2815 words)
I will trade the US market for over 10 years. And there's one thing I know for sure. In the market, it's not complex strategies that survive. It's strategy with clear rules. Most people trade range like this. They draw a simple box top and bottom and jump in here and here. And what happens? You just keep getting stopped out. That's not a skill issue. Your criteria are wrong. What I'm about to show you today is confidently different from the usual box range trading [music] everyone uses. It's a box trading strategy built around the specific pin moments when volume explodes and the logic almost stupidly simple with just this one. [music] This moment the market opens you will instantly know is this a buy or do I stay the hair away from this? The more some people trade, the more money they actually lose. Sounds strange. They study more, but somehow their results got worse. Most of these people do the exact same thing. They start staking complicated indicators on their charts one by one. RSI, MACD, Ballinger bands, then another indicators, trend lines, support resistance, formulas, settings, complex concept. on top of that. At that point, the chart is a mess. You can't even tell what you are looking at anymore. And that's not even the end of the problem. There's a clear pattern here. Everything is too complex. Not one standard, but way too many. Every situation changes the entry. Targets change, stops change. So, every time you try to enter, your brain just explodes. The strategy I'm about to show you is a complete opposite of that. It's extremely basic, really closely simple, no indicators, no complex interpretation. And yet, with this exact strategy, I'm closing over $100,000 in profit per day. In today's video, I'll break down three things. how to use this strategy, why it works this way, and my real trades step by step. Watch this video till the end and you will understand why in trading it's not complex strategies, but simple ones that survive the wrongest. No matter which market you trade, it honestly doesn't matter that much. Stocks, futures, NASDAQ, or any other asset. What I'm talking about today isn't price, it's time. The time when money moves stays almost the same no matter the market. Including futures, the NASDAQ trains about 23 hours a day. Within that you've got the Asian s, European session and US session. Today we are going to focus specifically on the US market. This time window is when the largest wave of orders hits the market at our once during the day. So when you start trading the very first step is that simple. Open the one hour chart and draw a box around the single candle where the US market opens and closes. You take the high and the row of the dead candle just those two and wrap them into a box. So on this chart, the box you are seeing capture the price action 30 minutes before and after the US market opens are bundled into one clean range. That's where the obvious question comes up. [clears throat] Why draw the box specifically on the US open candle? Because this is the moment when the most volume and the highest volatility is flowed at once. Most institution around the world build their positions right in this window. Let me give you an example. Say during the first hour of the US session, price drops all the way to the bottom of the box, then gets pushed back up to the top of the box. To move a price like that takes astronomical amounts of money. That means this J is where massive buying and selling pressure collided head on. When you look at it due to this box, the top of the box marks the price rear where selling pressure was strongest in that window. The bottom of the box marks where aggressive buying actually step in. And there's one more key concept here. The middle line of the box, the 50% rebel. This price is where buyers and sellers vote the hardest and stay balanced is the two center of power. That's why the market reaction around this structure. If price horizont below the midrise, sellers had the edge. The back structure is simple. Top is strong resistance. bottom is solid support and the middle is the decision line that reflects direction. All three are formed within that single one hour US opening candle. Let me show you how this works in real trading. This strategy is most effective after the US 1 hour candle closes and during the first two hours that follow. Let's draw the US open box on this chart. Now extend it forward. From there you drop down to lower time frames and look for precise entries inside this J. When you drop down to the 5minut chart you receive the US opening candle close bullish which means price is currently holding above the middle line about 20 minutes after the opening candle close. You can see a dodgy forming right at the top of the box. So what do we do here? Sell, right? Let's see what happened next. Price pushed back again. But that doesn't mean the trend fully flipped bearish. It simply hit the strongest resistance in that John and react. Breaking the top of this box takes serious buying power. Why? Because even when the US session open when the most money rushed in, this rebel st didn't break. Most of beginners panic here and think the trend just play. So they cut the trade. But watch what happens when price comes back down toward the midline. You see long lower wigs forming as price pushes back up and just like that it rebounds all the way to the top of the box again. Let's look at another chart. Remember what's the very first thing you do? You find the US opening candle. Then connect it high and low to build the box. Since we are trading inside this structure, stretch the box forward as far as possible. Now drop down to the five minute chart. You will see price push up toward the midright. Then get rejecting a wick and rolling back down. And from there, price drops again all the way back down to the bottom of the box. What happens next? Price finds support at the bottom of the box, pushes back up, then gets reject at the middle line and rolls over again. It works the same on any market. I showed you NASDAQ here, but gold Bitcoin forex pairs the behavior is exactly the same. Charts are just the raw results of real orders. Human psychology and behavior playing out in real time. That's why this works no matter which market you trade. Let's look at this chart. Same process. Draw the box on the US opening candle. Now drop down to the five minute chart. You will see price is currently holding above the middle line. price breaks below the midline, then prints a wrong lower wig light at the bottom of the box. That's your signal. This is where you can stab into a wrong position. What happens next? Price pushes up to the midline, gets reject, and drops. Then down at the bottom of the box, you start seeing multiple candles with wrong lower wicks staking up. That's support forming and from there price ripples back up and this pattern just keeps repeating. Now then you understand the US opening candle box. This chart suddenly makes sense. You can anticipate these moves. But let me ask you this. What if we erase the box? How does it ruin now? Do you honestly know where you are supposed to trade? We buy when we see wrong lower wigs forming at the bottom of the box. But other traders all they see is a strong downside momentum. So they jumping short or because one thing is missing that box. So should you short it here without the box price looks like it for forever. That's how people end up changing sales. And I'll be clear, trading by changing price is something I never recommend. Until re power shows up strong enough buyers or sellers to break this box, price will kept rotating inside the range. That's where we trade defined range clear reactions. Once you understand this, trading gets a whole lot easier. Now let's flip the perspective. What happens if this box gets broken? I told you if a reversal candle forms and closes at the top of the box, you look for a trade. But this time price pushes straight through the box. So what do you do in that case? A breakout like this means one thing. Huge buy or selling pressure just after all the earlier US session rigidity. Should you chase it and jump in? Absolutely not. I just told you that's not the move. The high probability entry comes when price pulls back to the box. That's where your trade is safely. Let's look at this chart. Draw the box. The US opening candle and extended forward. Now drop down to the five minute chart. At first price gets reject at the top of the box. Then on the next move it breaks clean through the upper boundary. That's not where you enter. You wait for the pullback. Then price pulls back right to the top of the box. It closes with the wrong lower wick. That's your signal. That's where you enter. Why do we enter here? Because breaking the top of this box means price just crushed a major resistance rebel. This isn't random. It's a key price J built by US session volume. And at the exact level buyers completely overhe sellers. So when price comes back to that level the os are high that the winning buyers will define it again. What if it doesn't pull back and just keeps ripping higher radical miss it on purpose. Like I said earlier as a beginner avoid chasing entries at our cost. Let's look at this chart. Draw the box around the first hour of the US session. Then extend it forward. This time price breaks below the bottom of the box. A clean break. Then it comes back up and retest the box bottom that pull back. That's your short entry. This box strategy is so effective that you mark the first hour US open candle then drop down to lower time frames one minute five minute and you will keep getting entries they don't run out take a look at this day on the five minute chart notice how many times price keeps coming back to the box and just to be clear all of this happened within a single day draw the box on the US opening candle Then drop down to the five minute chart right after that opening candle closes. You can see price getting supported at the bottom of the box and pushing up. Then it raries to the top of the box gets reject and after that it breaks through the top again and only after the breakout price pulls back to the top of the box prints a dodgey then continue higher. Just to train the reaction around this box gives you more than enough opportunities to full solid profits all day long. For those who still don't fully get this, let me show you exactly how to apply it in le trading step by step. We are going to trade guard stocks, commodities, crypto, it all works the same. Repeat this exact process and you will naturally start repeating profitable trades. Let's start from right here. The US opening candle has just closed. Now I'm drawing the box on that complete US hourly candle. Now let's drop down to the five minute chart and look at the current price. In this situation, what position should we take? Nothing. There is nothing to do. Price is above the midline, but it hasn't touched the top and it hasn't retested the midline either. If price closes with a candle showing the rally start at the top of the box, I will take a short position. But if it breaks through the top and closes above, I will wait and take a wrong entry. When it pulls back to the top of the box, let's watch and see. All right, the opening candle broke above the top and close. As I explained earlier, I'm not thinking about shorting now, but I'm also not chasing a wrong entry immediately. I wait until this candle pulls back to the top of the box and shows signs of rejection. Price has now fled back to the top of the box. As I said earlier, this is where I take a wrong entry. Once the candle closes at the back stop, I enter. Let me mark my entry on trading view. I went in at 4337. Now rest use the opening candle box to set stam loss and take profit levels. For the take profit, I basically target a move equal to the height of the box. That's my minimum target. If the trend is strong an ongoing uptrend I extend the target to one time two times even three times the box height I say risk reward based on one box two boxes one to one one to two here yesterday's US high align with the top of the second box so I send my take profit at the second box top the top of the second box is 4374. I will set my take profit there on this chart. The first dot line is my entry. The second line is my initial target. The third line is the final target I'm actually aiming for. Stop loss will be triggered if price hits the bottom of the US opening candle box. Vertically the take profit is 4374 and the stop loss is 4320. The key point here I entered exactly according to the rules I set. Even if price drops back below the bottom of the opening candle box and triggers my stop loss. That's perfectly fine because I'm simply trading by the rules. If it hits the trophy with a one 122 risk reward, that's 37 points or roughly $3,700 in profit. Price has now reached the first target. Current position is showing about $15044 in profit. Here's the point I really want to emphasize. If I were a trader who rocks in profit quickly, I could close the position here or I could take half off and hold the rest. But my target is the top of the second box. So I will continue holding. Price is pausing a bin right now. There are still about 2 hours until the US session closes. I've already closed the position on my other accounts. The position I'm showing now, I'll continue to hold. Since I've reduced the size, I will take it overnight and see how it plays out. All right, the Asian session has started and three hours have passed. Price has now done exactly what I was targeting. It reached the top of the second box. Yesterday, price ringered around the middle line of the second box. Then at Friday's US close, it folded back to the top of the opening candle box. On Monday during the Asian session, it found support at the top of the first box and push it higher. If this price action had happened earlier Friday in the US session, I would have added my position. But since this was an overnight trade and I wasn't watching during the Asian session, I did not scale in. I took $3627 in profit from this single trade. That's the power of the US opening candle box in action. By now, you will get the full picture. To summarize, draw a box on the US opening candle. Of course, you don't trade during the first hour. You have to wait the candle to close to draw the box. Then, if price reaches the top of the box and a store candle forms, you short. If it drops to the bottom of the box, think wrong. And if price breaks through the box, do not enter immediately. Wave for at least one pullback. Then enter in the direction of the move at the top of the box. Take this box theory and try it in your own trading. Then drop a comment with your research. I want to see how it works for you. Once we hit 2026 comments, I will re part two with an even more advanced strategy. I will analyze a full year of opening candle boxes and share it. Thanks everyone.

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