Untitled (_ru5Z-DJkCA)

EP is a basic setup that is formed out of FOMO. Okay? So your feedback is going to be very immediate by 94510 more or less. You know whether your trade has become risk-free or whether you have gotten stopped out. It is so fast. Correct? So if my management technique is right, of taking the stop loss up very fast, it works best in EP. It may work on VCPs, but it works much better as a concept on EPs. Okay? There is no benefit to be gained from R Volume. R Volume is absolute rubbish. And I guarantee you, what do people show? People show, "Look, this is a successful chart." It's a cherry-picked example. They'll show you the chart where the upside wave is moving. Show you the chart where the head and shoulders are moving. I tell you to study the opposite. Remove all failed stocks from failed EPs. Don't bring successful EPs. Get all the failed EPs. Look at the previous 510 minutes of volume in those failed EPs. Then you'll see each one, and every failed EP that had moved up always had volume before failing. So what did you get? So when we're looking at neglect, even when we read that, that was also an error that we made at the start, that when we look at the US market, the basic premise was like, QoQ or YOY should go up 30%, should be neglected. I think both of the contexts we've learned from experience later don't apply to the Indian markets. Okay? In Indian markets, since the tracked universe is a lot smaller, the perception and expectation of earnings are a lot more dominant than what the actual reported earnings are. What often happens is that your first earnings generate such reactions, and this is often a very good reference point for your second EP. Okay. So at that point it is no way possible that you are going to take a perfect decision if Monday okay bandhan gaps up goes up a lot I am going to be proven like an idiot okay and that is my let go the only choice I am taking is how big of an idiot am I choosing to be but I will always be an idiot in one case and the other excellent Anurag really good actually it also addresses the psychological part of the trading also boliyega mere ko good morning everyone and thank you for joining the AP Round Table we are glad to have Chirag Kedia ji and Anurag Krishnan ji with us three participants for today's discussion the idea of ​​this session is not just to discuss trades but to understand the thought process execution risk management and practical realities behind EP trading in a very collaborative and healthy learning In many ways, EP is a framework of preparation, observation, and execution. While the setup looks simple, it requires consistency and discipline in stock selection, position sizing, and trade management. The purpose of today's roundtable is to openly discuss exchange perspectives, practical experiences, and knowledge, which may not always be visible in static examples or historical charts. So, let me welcome Chirag and Anurag to start this meeting with their perspective on EP, then we can take questions one by one. Thank you. First of all, thank you Aishwarya for having me and Anurag. It is a pleasure to do a session with you and your group. We have a lot of people, we already know them. Mohit is one of my best students, and I also know a lot of people, including Rakesh and Himanshi. So there are a lot of familiar people we used to talk to day in and day out. So good to have you all here and looking forward to a very, I hope this will be a very value-adding session for you guys . Right? So over to you Anurag. K bhi aap nahi chalo thanks a lot guys. So I think in this EP season, I know our groups are also quite very active and this is primarily a big harvest season for me too. Okay. So EP is a topic where I think we can just wake up in the middle of the night and we can start speaking. That's what it has become to me right now. It has become one of my bread and butter setups in the last three or four years. Okay? It's a topic probably where I have also generated a lot of returns by design put in a lot of effort also in and I will tell you why when you get into the Indian markets right when you start scaling up okay the bigger problem that you face in the Indian markets is not many times the setups ah it's not many times the what do you see the opportunities and charts and values ​​that you find okay it is the liquidity ep you get the biggest What does that give you an advantage? It's liquidity. Okay? Even an average of a liquid stock on an EP day is a very tradable one. Okay? So the moment you start scaling up, right? EP becomes a very strong arrow in your quad. Then what happens in the second? You'll actually see, right? When we're momentum traders. Ah, what we primarily need is momentum. Okay? But what we're often doing is becoming increasingly important, especially when I've been interacting with traders a lot more over the last year. I've realized that we look for entries based on more than momentum. Okay, we'd rather prefer a very good entry in an average momentum stock than having an average entry in a very good momentum stock. Okay, so what EP does is EP actually breaks down every principle of structure that you want in your charts to an extent. Okay, it is very, very deliberately impossible to code. Okay? It deliberately impossible to fit into trend lines and patterns. And that 's the actual essence of it. Okay? You're a lot of people. I think EP is one of its many names. You say "Peets." So, it's probably one of the most researched topics in the trading world. Because it is also one of the biggest value drivers that you see on a chart. Okay? But I don't think that has ever been a very strongly coded and an algo system which has been very profitable on this on a scale and that is where the edge is for all of us. Okay, so you would look at any earnings season, right, which is roughly what two to 120 to 150 days, any time in a year, and you would scan any time during this period, your top momentum stocks will always compare to the earnings winners, okay, and some news-based winners, and some theme-based winners, one yes. So what you would end up doing by EPS is you are in an advertently going to stocks which are going to be the top winds, okay ? If you look at the last 10-15 days, the market was kind of cooling off after a very euphoric month of April. Most of the winners you'll see here will either be follow-through earnings, or all for the next 20 days will actually be moves that originate out of earnings. Okay? Also, what happens, right? When you do the pyramiding and you actually go to capital allocation, this is exactly where the liquidity is flowing. Okay? When you're on day zero, right? When the EP, say, if you're tracking post market results and at 9:15, that's when you're putting in the order. Okay? This is the earliest point where you're in sync with the institution. Okay? You're not waiting for a stage two. You're not waiting for a flag or a volatility contraction pattern to an NCO. Okay? This is the point where you and the institution are putting the order at the same time. Okay? So instead of waiting for the flag in itself, you're literally getting at the bottom of the pole. So, when your alpha is right, you also get multiple pyramiding opportunities. This is where EP is probably one of the best setups in terms of risk-reward in India. And in India, majorly because of the depth of the universe, we have you make money predominantly through two ways. Okay? You have a very big move, a big size, in a big move. And you end up taking so many small moves that it compounds into a big move. And EP in both cases actually gives you the option to do that. Okay? So what will you do today? Ah, I think basics, I'm assuming most of you would have seen. Okay? Ah, but keep your questions as practical as possible. Be as brutal and probably upfront with your questions, also, because that is how we have also been with ourselves. So, please don't hesitate if there are any questions within the next few hours on anything on EP. Okay? Even if we don't have an answer, I hope we don't have answers to all the questions, because we are also looking for more questions to answer one. And also, I think just before the session started, right, I think me, Chirag and Ishwari ji were also just discussing that if we ask the same question maybe three times, so probably we will have different answers for all three, and all the answers may also be right to our next, okay, so that is why the context that we are coming out from, okay, anyway, Chirag, you are going to add in, yes, then we will start, I will add one thing, I think that like we were discussing this thing with Ishwari ji, well, there is a lot of discussion around what is a setup, what is a strategy, right, so today morning I was discussing with a USB trader, as well, he had a good portfolio. He was making Quite good, their returns were a few million dollars. So, as we discuss it with them, the same thing happens: this is the time of the information revolution. At every corner, information is pouring in from everywhere. The point is, what results are you getting from that information? Is it converting into wisdom ? So, again and again, I see we've done a very massive webinar on EP, right? But the challenge that comes up is it's not solving the questions. If it's not solving the questions, what's the reason? Right? How will that translate into your success? I believe that wisdom is something which is varied, and wisdom is not about accumulation of information, but about the elimination of unnecessary information, that I believe. So, if I ask you all one question before we start, right? I will ask one simple question. If I am describing an EP in three words, right, in three words or in three short sentences, sentences should not have two and should not have more than three words, then can you describe an EP? You guys have spent time with us. Spent time in the EP group. There are so many discussions. Many of you must have seen us, must have watched our webinars . Can you describe an EP in three lines, what is the setup of an EP? If you don't do that, then you don't have a mental clarity, right? If you are able to do that, then you will be able to understand what you are doing. You can put it in the channel if you want to unmute. Mehta has put character change in behavior bust with high volatility bust with high volatility ok anybody else turn around around hi thanks and I don't know DJ phone drift due to event new lotch ok deep moving liquid stock surprising the market participants momentum change in character major liquidity sudden move some news quite a good number of response hum hum so good response. Now let me ask you one thing what is the setup that you are trading? Can you describe it to me in three lines. You have told me the reason behind it, what is the reason behind it? Underline reasons what basically is your setup? What are you trading? What do you want to see? Tell me three key points that you want to see? Three key points in two or more than three words. VCP Resumption SV Yadav Strength through Gab Volume Catalyst and Price Behavior Nice Good Good Responses May Be Ignored Okay yes Chirag ji so I will say I will add a few more things right most of the answers you gave were vague answers it wasn't brutally honest answers because resumption of demand is one thing how can you put it into a quantified area what exactly you are looking at people I will describe it in three words point number one you look for a catalyst right news earnings whatever the catalyst second thing neglected that is the second point third thing is gap and something that can tell you that the catalyst is actually going upward. Okay? What is the difference between the three? I will tell you. And that creates an EP setup is made up of these three things . Right? What is the difference between these three aspects? A catalyst can come into a stock, but it may not translate into an uptrend. It can be a level to create a bias. Why is it there? I will come back. Some answers are good, but I will describe them. Okay? The first point is that catalyst news or earnings can give you a bias that the stock may go up. There is no guarantee that the stock will go up, right? Because there are other elements as well which actually hold a lot of offense. Take Netv, for example, last quarter. Right, it was a perfect five- star setup for an up trade. Everything was there. Right, the second point is what's neglected. Right, neglected is something: why your surprise will work, why your catalyst can result in an up move, and something like that. Right, what happens is price is a discounting mechanism. The first book I read on technical analysis was "Technical Analysis of the Fundamental Financial Markets" by John James Murphy. Right? So, it describes one thing: there are three basic principles of how technical analysis works. And I still remember that, and I feel that's the foundation. If you ask me what three things I would take from that book, these are the three things I would take away. First, price is a discounting mechanism. Price discounts everything. Right? The second thing was that history repeats itself, based on which you try to memorize patterns. Memorization is not important, but the point is that history repeats itself. I'll add one more news item: history repeats itself, but each time with its own uniqueness. That's the second part . And the third part is the price movement trend. Right? And a basic principle of a train is that it continues to move in a particular direction until something else comes along that can change its situation, according to Newton's Law of Motion. Right? Now, how do we correlate this here ? Right? Let's start with point number one. Point number one is that price discounts everything. Every good and bad news is discounted in price. The moment it comes. Like you just saw in the Iran war, beyond a point the market stopped responding to the negative news. So what happened? Right? It's not that price is a very important context here. I'd like to add a concept called participation discounting. Right? Read about it in Jason Shapero's chapter on Unknown Market Wizard. Right? He describes this term, participation discounting. It means that when you say price is discounting something, price isn't something that can discount anything. Right? So what exactly is a discount? Price is how many sellers became interested in selling due to some reason, right? Or buyers became interested in buying due to some reason . It's not the value that gets factored into the price. It's the participation that gets factored into the price. A catalyst came along, and I 'm buying because of that. I'm very bullish, but I only have ₹100,000. So, I'm so bullish that even if I had 5 crores, I would have invested. But I have 5 lakhs. I can only invest 5 lakhs. Right? So, the upper ceiling of my bullishness is reached at 5 lakhs. So, news is factored in when everyone invests all their money, so that's the Christ in. Right? So, what happens here is why do we look for neglect? Because whenever news comes in the market or earnings that are expected, they are automatically priced in. Right? So, the first factor while the driving force is the news and the catalyst that you look for. The second aspect, which is what happens, is that it is neglected and hadn't been priced in that news or something. Right? Whatever your driver is, it shouldn't be priced in. So, the most important thing that makes an EP, and EP, is the neglected factor, right? Whether it's neglected or not. And the next point is the resumption of demand that follows. So, you look at three things in a setup. What's the reason for your move? What could be the reasons? It can be important. It is the cause, but I'll say that it's the least important factor when you're trading an EP. Right? Because of the other two factors, you can trade better instead of focusing solely on the reason why the price is moving. Right? The second point is the neglected element, and the third point is if the price isn't moving. Are you seeing a gap, or is the price movement suggesting a change in behavior? So, I'd like to describe EP using these three rules. Anurag, if you want to add anything, no, no, we'll go further. I think what will be taken, think it is better through some question and that actually I think may be my question or please ask you the price discount everything am I correct hum or news is there price factor in that news and either inflate or deflate because of that news hum ok hum in certain cases then the stock the news has come down like earnings news has come down but stock does not react well and stays as it is there is a delay in factoring in that news after two days or a week and so that is my question ok ok ok so that is a very interesting question and a very good question first of all what happens is that two things matter a lot here I have seen delay generally less in two-three cases when your stock is very beaten down then there is no delay, right? Another thing I've noticed is that stocks that are in high demand, like Avanti Feed, were a setup that was in the news a few days ago. If you look back a few days ago, Netv was a setup that was in the news. Right? EPs don't work very well in all of these. Even if you look at them and structure them, they appear neglected. Right? That's one learning I had about them. Meaning, they should be such stocks. Neglected doesn't just mean that the price is consolidating. They should be stocks that no one is really watching. That's another factor that I noticed. Now, you asked the question , why do reactions come after two or three days? I can tell you two probable reasons for this. One is that if the stock is already popular and in the news, I believe investors don't get a better entry into it. In that case, they prefer Day One entry. Day One entry is very emotionally driven. Everyone makes a FOMO-driven entry. I won't say it doesn't work, right? But this concept of delayed EP has come up when we did research on EP in 2022. This was something that we focused on and we saw in our research. As well, one major reason for this is that the buying that happens later is mostly informed buying, it is buying by informed participants because emotional participants will abandon it on day one. So my personal belief is there are two three reasons, first may be, one reason for this could be that informed buyers are waiting a bit . They are letting the initial emotional response fizzle out and are not committing to the price on day one because they feel that they will not get the quantity they want on day one at a fair price. So they will wait, let the emotional response fizzle out and then they will place themselves into the stock. That's why I believe there's a delayed reaction in EVMs. We got it. Also, what happens, isn't it? Ishwar ji, not all the news are equal? ​​Okay, some participants take some decision to act. Now, that decision may happen in delay of two or three reasons. Okay, either if it's an overextended company, I know everything about that company. I anticipated the results, but I need some of the other management direction and confirmation coming from it. Okay, as you'll see in the last few quarters, for example, two quarters back, it had an EP that didn't move for a while, and then suddenly the management comes out with the earnings direction, and it starts moving in. Okay? And let me take a couple of examples. Okay, will you take a bar chart? Let's take the one for 2023. Yes. I think that was the Feb ep if I river purse this is a very typical case of what you were saying shu ji yes look at this now see the Feb's big gap up which was there ah ah yes this one this one gap up see see this was a big gap up okay now it had slide followed through over the next three four days but it majorly did not do anything till the next result correct you are there no your camera is probably off yes actually yes I am here good no good no problem ah okay now see this here it was a big gap up okay it actually did nothing okay here it was if you remember during the Feb and March of 23 even the market was not very good one that. So, at times, the market may create pressure for a liquidity flow if the earnings, or whatever the underlying catalyst, is not strong enough to overcome that. Okay? One. So, many times, it may not be strong enough, and you need a market push and a sentiment push many times to create an upside. Okay? What happens many times? A deal to an extent, weather, institute also takes some time to decide. Like, even in networks, if you go to an EP with an initial IPO, it is not necessary that everyone is looking at results at midnight and deciding to buy at 9 o'clock in the morning. There will be undertracking and overtracking across all companies, and that's why there's also a delay (DPs) at times, and other pullbacks and EPs are also formed because the decision isn't like the results came out at 12:00 PM and the Bud order came in at 9:00 AM. It's not always like that. There are still humans working on an analyst-level team and an investment committee of prospects who are making some decisions. One and one, what happens? God, win see an EP. If it is actually very strong, right? It is not only going to create one bust. Okay, now let's take this chart for example. You see the Feb EP. That was the first time it actually had a very good result. If I remember it that time, okay, I was tracking this EP. Let's zoom out a bit. Should I zoom out here? No, I think we are still on the same. Is the screen not refreshing? Yes, I think so, I don't know why. But I think it's slightly better. Anyway, I think we can get the context from here. Now see this. This is not working, I think it will get back. Is anyone else having problem with the screen or are you seeing it? I can see it. There is no problem. No, I can't see it. It's just refreshing, I think, with a lag. Or refreshing is with a lag. Okay. Okay. Yes, okay. I have to give it now. Or this is okay. Now you see this is majorly into a very deep consolidation and actually came out in Feb. Okay, and it was kind of in a down trend over the last quarters as well. Okay, now for an actual EP to even transpire, right, this is how it would actually look like now in Feb. Whatever perception of Feb changed out of the result, right, now that will be tested when that will again be tested in the March result, which they came out somewhere in May. Okay, now that may is coming with what context it is already coming with a context of what came out in the March Feb result. Wow, so it creates an up move. Okay? Want to go a little further from May? Okay. Let's take the next result. ah somewhere and to August. Okay? From May to August, ah or. From May to August, what it's gone up from nearly about 1400 types to about 2000 types. Okay? So from another about 45 what percent where it has gone up. Right now when it's August or June the result is still 2000 right? Sorry 1700 it look at the next. Okay? 1700 suppose it has gone up by what? 300 points. So roughly about 22 percent. Okay? Now that it has gone up, and when the June results are coming, they are again building up upon the context of that. Correct, right now, when we are talking even about neglect, right now, most of the people may not consider neglect in August, and when it went beyond that, they may not consider neglect in November. But neglect is not only a stock which has a 52-week close and is in a base and is trading downward. Now, when we saw the Indian markets, it actually takes a look at the context of value. Right? So, when the August results are coming, right? We are considering whether what we wrote in the June results is consistent with that? Is it overperforming and has it broken down from what we were previously thinking? Correct. Then we will see in the next results in November. Again, is that thesis that we said in August being tested or not? Right? Its test of fire at every quarter will keep on happening not with the result which came on a YoY level but on a QoQ level because that is what they are looking at every result. So when looking at the November result, right, they already have a positive context of three results - a Feb result, May result and an August result. So, a November result is a look at the context that even though I have thought about so much in the first three results, okay? Is the company performance still going to happen? So here, that Judio story was going on. That was a very massive stone expansion which was going on. The margin growth and volume growth was very good. Okay? So when I am looking at November, what am I looking at it? I am only looking at whether what was said in Feb and May has it been delivered? Is it on track, and whether when I'm actually making my earnings projection for the next few quarters, am I still on track with it or not? The moment that is confirmed. Right? You will then start seeing that the delay in reactions will drastically reduce. Right? So right now, if your reaction in Feb was, you don't see a delay in August. You don't see a delay in November. Correct? Because it has already entered a decision-making loop. Right? And now there is going to be a continuous, what should I say? test of that result on a good or a bad skill. And then the result starts getting a lot more immediate in nature. One. Right? Let's go a little further. Let's see move. Right? Now see this. That was just back in Feb. From Feb onwards, actually, if you see the ascent of increase, it has also increased. Okay? So, at this point, there was never any neglect, right? But does that mean Feb was not an earnings reaction? It obviously was. So, when we are looking at neglect, we also read that it was also an error that we made at the beginning that when we look at the US market, the basic role was like, QoQ or YOY should go up by 30%, should be neglected. I think both of the contexts, we learned by experience. This does not apply to the Indian markets. Okay, in Indian markets, since the tracked universe is a lot smaller, the perception and expectation of earnings are a lot more dominant than the actual reported earnings. Okay? And what happens is, since the universe is also kind of limited or the type of catalyst that we have, okay? In India, we are not as wide as what we have in the US markets. Okay? More earnings beats will come or regulatory policies will come. Some new product will come. But even when it comes, it is not as revolutionary, especially in tech, biotech, and pharma. Okay? So when this comes, we're looking at that with in this limited universe, I'm still getting new positive reinforcements with this stock. And so if you look at Facebook, you see from Facebook to May, it has again gone up. Okay, so back to that thesis, it gets tested. From May to May, it again keeps going up. If you see this, it is a very common characteristic in most of the persistent momentum stocks that you see anything which has come out from an EP and is getting tested over quarter after quarter. Okay? It's going to have something which is going to be a lot more, ah, what will be ending up giving you a lot more of pyramiding opportunities. You will be able to create a big move in a big, a big size, in a big move, and these are the best opportunities that you get in the Indian markets. Okay? So let's go a little further, Chirag. We see this. Now it keeps going, right? Keeps going. The red line, I think, Chirag, is the 50 DMI. Okay, so it ended up at what's nearly about 8400. Correct, I think it started at 1400 in 23. Correct, so it is seven times. So, Ishwar ji, now think when an EP even came in Feb, right, Feb of 23. You are right now at October of 24. When the top was made, okay, with in this one and a half years, it is no way possible that anyone would have thought of the stock at 7x. There's no chance that you used to put in your projection. Correct. So, what an earnings beat also does, right? And an earnings EP does, it creates momentum for a particular quarter. It will again be tested at the next result. Unless that result is so good that you're expecting it to carry forward into future quarters as well. But very rarely do such results come out. Okay? Okay? Unless, this happens only when there's some significant structural change. But right now, the trend is a retail company. The basic growth driver is going to be store expansion, how much volume growth is happening, and how much underlying margin is coming. There are only three or four growth factors beyond the point. Okay? In this. So, at each factor, each quarterly result, I'm going to look at this one. And do you know when your delay DP comes? When it's a narrative-based move. Okay? And an earnings-based move is much shorter to analyze and quick to react upon whenever there's a change in regulatory policy. Okay? Right now, I'll take EV. Some fame subsidy policy has changed. Okay? I'll take defense. There is a new defense budget allocation which comes. Okay? I put in the armor scheme. I put in the railways. I increased my defense budget. Okay? Now with that, the good part of it is it many times does not react as strong at the start. Okay, EP, and an earnings limitation is it still has a quantification figure. Right, you can still put it on an Excel that brother, X to Y will go, I can put out an X ratio, so mere ko itna paisa dalan hai karke for an analyst, but for a which is a theme based on a story based DP, right, the upside is based on your human imagination, you don't know how much a company is going to get out of a defense budget. So you will take both a pessimistic and an optimistic view, and the price can vary between both. In this case, delays can happen, but when the upside comes in, it will be much more proponent than what even an earnings GP will be creative. Okay? So, if you look at the previous two-three years, like the defense theme, the PSU themes that kept going on. What was the underlying factor? There was a government factor of regulations, a policy change , and a budget allocation that was going to increase. You could almost never really quantify how much impact this will have on which company. That takes some time to come in, but when it starts coming in, it will get you a very sustained buy because now that is coming more of a structured buying mechanism. It is not coming like an EP that came in three days, so I am expecting a follow-through for a more Sustained Go. Okay? Now the trend is obviously a much more cherry picked example you don't get so many good stocks continuously sustaining on an EP but if you see an earnings CEP will not have so much of a delay unless it is very undertracked and overtracked okay a news based EP may have slight delay but when it actually goes up it goes up a lot I would like to add one point in fact fantastic question I was hoping I will get a new question this is the first question and you thank you I am sorry Chirag ji first you complete it then I will ask I will ask just one point here that many times what happens is that these first your earnings aake iss waise ke reactions banaye na this many times is a very good context for the second EP right after the first earnings many times the second earnings is going to be far better you build on that so I believe that that one context is something that I have or let's take just one example. Let's take aggregate for example yes or a little yes now if I took the previous few earnings right let's say start from Feb 25 this was an earnings here yes you see that there a reaction started it fizzled out field correct the next one also had a slight gap up fizzled out out fiddled. Okay? Now when actually your next earnings also came, that was July one. If when I actually went to the earnings I sort in the morning, it was just an ordinary one. It was nothing which was extraordinary to create a reaction. This was when the entry or execution was taken. This was purely on action. The follow through is actually what strengthens the conviction. But what actually set up the context for this EP was to a large extent why the previous one failed. If those previous two failures had not happened, right, probably on the technical point of view, this EP would still have failed okay , fine, I got your point. Actually, I said, I have a follow-up question, which was there in the previous chart? Suppose I have taken a position on the EP setup, okay, and after that, it had a move of around 20%, then it went into a consolidation of around 20-30 days, and during that time, there are many other EPs which are coming, and my margin is exhausted, I am completely in a dilemma and kind of mental, because what I boat is not moving, and neither is going up, neither is going down, and I have a limited resource, okay, so how do I handle this, first psychologically, second capital wise, let's say, good. You have asked a perinatal question , brother, how do I hold both the laddus in my hand? I'll keep it and the third one is how do I keep eating it ? Yes, that's the same thing, right? So, let's take this Trent one, Ishwari ji. Okay, let's take another example. Let's take a B Soft, my favorite. We often joke in our sessions that if there should be a bookmark option in the chart, where we can bookmark the chart name along with the date, then Anurag 's stock would be the most bookmarked stock, just like it was for me. Okay? Now look, yes, now see the gap up which happened, Ishwari ji. Okay? It's a gap up, had a small pullback. Okay? After that, if you see the next month's action, right? It's slow if I take it till somewhere in the middle of July. Since then, it's been moving slowly . It's not doing something which is very extraordinary. If you go day to day , you will just get board by it one. Okay? And this was also a period where everything else was moving up. I was completely exhausted on margin, but I kept it . Okay? Now to things that will help you. You could never have known this stock was at what? Around 300, something around that point. It went up a near 3x from this. There's no way at 300, that you could have known that it will go at 3x . There's no chance it will go at 3x. Okay, what you're trying to do is you're trying to judge a future outcome which was on a sideline. Buyers' today's trend, even when it was stagnating at 2000. I had no idea that if I had known at ₹800, I would have sold my entire portfolio and gone on vacation for a year and a half. Okay ? I could have no way that I could have done it. Okay? Now what do you do in this case? You do two things. One thing is you align your objective with what you want out of trading at that particular moment. Okay? Since the outcome is very uncertain and you don't know what you're going to do, see where you're particularly standing at that point in your trading life. Okay? Are you in need for a lot more churn and regular profits? One. Okay? If that's the one, obviously you'll go into a lot more. Absolute momentum stocks then go into such stocks. Hoping for a persistent momentum is very valid because we have seen the winner charts, there are 99 other charts which were in consolidation and sank. Okay, what will create the bias out of you is a chart like Trent and B Soft. I will show you other 10 stocks where I was staying for a persistent momentum. No one has reached anywhere yet. For example, last week I had a big position in Bandhan Bank. Okay, I mean, it was quite big. It was nearly 80% of the size. Because of Bandhan, my margin was exhausted and I had to take a call that I am not able to buy all the EP stocks. I am not getting time to pyramid. Let me trim a bit of Bandhan. Okay? So that at least I get an opportunity to get into other stocks. Like yesterday, Thermax went up. I wanted to pyramid in Thermax. I didn't have the margin. So I was forced to trim my position by one-third. Okay? Okay, only for an opportunity cost is that, is that a perfect decision? It will never be, it was a practical decision, of course. Yes, one- second. What are you thinking, Ishwari ji, are you thinking that if I exit here, say at 340, does it mean that I will never get an opportunity until the next 3x for this stock? If it is a momentum stock, right? To start with, we are looking for the right entry. We are not looking for the right momentum. If you have a persistent stock every week, it is going to come up in your scan. Okay? If you are even scanning half decently enough, someone or something is going to keep coming up in your scan somewhere . Okay? So, even if you sold it at 340, say, we're not value-dependent. It's not like you have the ego of a value investor, saying if you sold it at 350, you won't buy it at 450. We can buy it again. You're still with a stop-loss. You still have downside protection. Okay? So at that point it is no way possible that you are going to take a perfect decision if Monday okay bandhan gaps up goes up a lot I am going to be proven like an idiot okay and that is my let go the only choice I am taking is how big of an idiot am I choosing to be but I will always be an idiot in one case and the other excellent Anurag really good actually it also addresses the psychological part of the trading also yes what we are trying to do when we are looking at the rules or you know what it is like a good answer we are thinking of this like a science ki hum log ne ek text book ban diya or rule bana diya right it will be 100% right in 100% of the context it will never be the only effectiveness of a rule is if it will always be wrong how less of a wrong can it be and that You will only be able to judge in hindsight, never in real time. If Bandar had known if it would move in three days, I would have missed a couple of pyramids because of my size, and that I could have been very easily telling myself that brother, I should not have taken size here, after three days. Okay, so when I actually do my feedback reviews in my journal, what will be my insight is that this is not why I did not take size in Bandhan, okay, it will actually be a learning for the latter. Could I have identified a slowdown in the momentum in the last four days and prioritized my capital somewhere else? It could have been very well possible that yesterday I exited at 12:30 and ran away at 1:00. I got a pyramid of Thermax, and the size left in it is very much possible. Okay, but that is the let's go that I am dealing with an imperfect market with imperfect decisions. I got your point, and that's what makes trading very hard. If I may add a point to that, in fact, if you look at trading, we often make a lot of blunders, but we're still doing very well because trading is very forgiving. But what happens is that it simultaneously contradicts itself in the sense that it's very hard because we're in a probability-based game and we want to be right all the time. Right? So no one knows what happens next in a stock. You just act on probabilities, and there's no meaning to what should be called a template answer. If I have size and it's not working, what should I do? It's the decision that the person takes; it's not a strategy-based decision. Right? So that's why I'll say that it's the person who has the edge. It's not the strategies that have the edge. Right? Because all these decisions are made by humans. Got your point? Chirag ji and Anurag ji, what's the irony in the market? And the irony is, in my view, the stock you hold doesn't move. What you don't hold it really goes up, that is, what you sell, it goes up after you sell and what you hold it stay where it is, so you think that Ishwari ji, because that is what creates a lot more of memory, yes, true, correct, because you are more emotionally hurt by it, if that was actually true, right, I can easily take an anti-code on you and be a lot more profitable, the problem is even the inconsistency is random, no, but the failures are also random, that is the problem, so what actually ends up creating a memory are the negative outcomes, not the positive ones, I would say why I keep coming back to you, Ishwari ji, okay, because I sold it halfway and it went up 2x from that point, okay, so every day I will go through that chart once, I will exactly tell you why I remember that start so much because That was actually a very big emotional lesson for me, beyond the point. Okay? You see, this consolidation you're talking about, right? I sold off roughly around the July consolidation. Okay? My margin was starting to run out. June and July were going very well, and I was like, brother, I'm sitting here with my size. This isn't working. Everything else is working. I'm the only idiot, what can I do? Okay? So I sold off. Okay? Now from there when it went up another 2x you know what every week also and every two to three days even two I have no position in that stock I used to keep on checking that chart hoping that it will fall up okay and I will be validated at some point and the other okay so what was my holding period you know it was not only from May to July it was not for the three months I was indirectly also holding it in the mindset for the next six months when it was rising up and this is a very common instant correct because Ishwari ji I am not trading the stock at all from July onwards till it actually made a top I was trading my ego okay that brother it will come down would be proven right and my rule should somehow survive that brother it was correct and selling on a consolidation god okay ultimately it proved that even the traders are humus or or We are more human. The number of keyboards I have broken. I have lost count. Beyond the point, it happens every day. Yesterday there was an NRB Barings. Every morning it was 9:15. Right, Ishwari ji, I will tell you if you are trading the opening ranges. Okay, and this will be the problem. I think most of the traders also have. They think they have a focus list. Why the pressure also starts. Okay, you make a focus list of say 10, 15, 20 stocks. How much ever do you have? Okay? You will try and track it over the first half of an hour, 45 minutes, one hour. Okay? If that moves, you got an entry, you are good. Okay? If none of those stocks move, right, most of the traders will keep focusing on their list. Okay? And don't see what the market is going on at all. The market must be moving on something else. Something else must be moving on. Okay? But you'll be stuck to that list of 1520 stocks, and he'll say, "My list isn't working. The market is done for me." Okay. So what starts happening is we take out a bucket from the ocean and think we hold the ocean in that bucket. That's not how it is. The focus list actually should come in from what the market is giving us, and rather, we end up scanning the market, and that becomes our focus list. Correct. So, what's the point here, sorry, what other fact? Yes, I will come to it. I'm on my channel. Okay? So every 9:15 right, you're going to feel like an idiot because there will be five to six gap-ups. In the first five minutes, you won't be able to take all five or six. Maximum two or three will come. And if those two to three work, you're kind of lucky. And you mean the kind of luck that means you get a lot of kills at some point. But it's always going to happen that the two or three you took go bust, and the other two or three go. No way can we ever avoid that. The only thing is, can we find out more opportunities at 9:30 onwards? Just because I've missed the five, ten, and fifteen minutes. That doesn't mean I missed the next six hours too. You know, I keep tracking all the stocks on my list. Even some EPs work in the first minutes of the EP trades. They start even lower than the previous close. And from there after some consolidation they ran ok we did study in the last quarter in our deep die and I learnt that some sticks which does not give gap up but still at the end of the day they hit upper circuit or ok I do keep tracking those sticks also the whole day during the EP day and try to Take position we we correct ah so can we go in more flow what question we like from the beginning what we should do first and then go one by one and we can spend every 15 minutes for maybe three minutes for one question and then we move to another question so we can cover a lot of ground does it sound okay we keep it and or anyone you so the first category which I am going to talk about is collection of stock names and their shortlisting this is the first activity what we do during the EPE trade okay the first question is that out of the large number of stocks we results from the previous day how do we reduce them to a manageable and meaningful watch list okay so first thing yes first thing that we do is that in this you basically what we do in 9 and 8 there are two three things that we do in EPE is rather very Easy to manage right until there are some days or when there are a lot of results, simply I sort it here at 98, okay, and from this I select the top stocks, usually up to 3%, okay, sometimes if there are less stocks, then I can go a little lower if the market is opening negative. So even a 2% is equivalent to 3% in a good day, in a negative market 2% is equivalent to 3% in a good day. And sometimes when there are more, then we can even go a little higher. But generally 3% is the room. Now what I will do is that here I will add all selected to Chirag ji's my watch list. Chirag ji, prior to doing that, do you filter your stock by market capital and something like you will trade only in that, that's all done, isn't it, the total universe, that's all done in it, so I don't take stocks less than 1000 crores, I don't take stocks within 5% of the market, and I don't take stocks above 2 lakh crores, yes , okay, so this filter and at least 5 crore turnover, which I'm thinking of increasing to 10, because anyway you trade, it's always 60, 70, 80 crores. So I can at least do 10. So I think that's an additional change that I'm thinking up. Okay? So I 'll add all of these here to the portfolio. Okay? Then I'll go to this portfolio part all. Okay? And then I'll start looking at the stocks. Okay? Now there's a challenge here, which I'll explain. Okay? Like now it's proven . Right? It's gapping up. Right? Now you're seeing that there are no earnings. Behind you're seeing that it had already run up. Right? You're seeing earnings coming in here ; whether there's a marking or not doesn't make a major difference. The point is that it's a start of momentum, and it isn't a start of momentum. So it's not a start of momentum. At this point. At this point, it was a start of momentum. Right? So it's gone. Right? Now look at Vijay. Right? You 're looking at Vijay, so go back a little and see that this looks good as a trade. So I told you three things: right, there's a reason for the stock to gap up; there's news, earnings, or something. The second part is neglect. So, in the six minutes that you get from 9:08 to 9:15, that's the period when you shortlist your stocks. Out of 510 stocks, 15 stocks appear here, you shortlist them and then pick out the high-potential candidates. Okay? Is this a high-potential candidate ? I'll say no, it's not a high-potential candidate, not something that's very lucrative. I'll remove this one. I don't even think this one is looking good at this point. Because the second day was fine for a day two entry, but not for day one. Okay? Now, what's the challenge here? I've shown you this using the gap-up method, because it's already the end of the day. Right? What happens? A better option is to go here . What happens is that you already have some stocks in your portfolio that you've already selected . Okay? So, adding them a second time doesn't add them separately. So what is a better option? Go to Total Universe here. Sort it at 9:08. Like this, right? If you sort at 9:08, it will show you the gaps sorted from high to low. Right? Are you getting my point? There in the portfolio, because you have already added stocks for tracking, they won't be added again. There is a possibility of missing the stock to some extent. But here, if you do Total Inverse, you will see the gap ups very easily, like these gap ups in Thermax. Now see why should you choose Thermax? Is Thermax a neglected stock? It was completely neglected till here, no doubt about it. Right? From here, you saw an expansion, which you might say is not so neglected, but at least you have a 15-day kind of consolidation before the move started. Right, that's not how it happens. A downward declining stock doesn't perform well when it expands slightly, creating a small base or an overall base, something like that. That works better as an EPA in that case. So this is a very good example to trade as an EPA, right? This one. Now, Sunrise has had a good run. But the challenge is that this is a slightly run-down stock. There isn't a huge consolidation in it. So, you might be a little doubtful whether I should buy it or not. Right? So, it remains like this. Now, Samma, this is good. Why is this good? Because again, the same thing applies: consolidation, move, and then consolidation, and then the move starts. So, gradually, what happens is that, as Pradeep Pandey says, if you keep on trading for two to three quarters, you can even trade gap days. So, whether there is an EP or not doesn't matter much to you; you can trade gap days as well. Gradually, it becomes a part of procedural memory: what you want to look at, and 7 minutes is enough to sort the stock. I don't even look at the earnings now. I generally trade them as gap days, and I get good trades out of that. Okay? You don't even look at earnings , right? There's no need to look at earnings. Trade on price action. I just want you to confirm that. You can trade on price action. In fact, I trade gaps day in and day out. There's no need to trade only during earnings season. So there are news-based DPS. Right, so what's one option? Once you've tried gap trading, it's the most time-efficient thing to trade. It's time-efficient because you don't have to do anything. First, you have to come to the terminal at 9:08. Shortlist it. See where the gap is occurring. Sort them out. Look at that. You get some very good trades from it, many times. Okay? Last year, there were some good trades. I mean, even before last year, there was Map My India. There were very good trades. Like, I caught all these very good trades. This total went up to 167. There's no such EP within two days. There 's no earnings. Right, just the context you see, the context you see, the order the stock moves. So, even for swing trading, gaps are a very good way to swing trade if you want to swing trade even when you're not in earnings season. That's the benefit there. Just understand that if you take an hour out of your day, you'll do very well in trading. If you develop the habit and if you're training yourself for EP, then this is a very good year. Don't just wait for earnings season. Trade gaps throughout the year and keep trading gaps within them. Your hand-eye coordination will develop automatically. What do I need? I need a force behind me that can push the price up. Whether that force is earnings or news. What difference does it make to me? So, you're talking about non-EP gaps, so do you also include R volume to add extra R volume? That 's a very nonsensical concept. Just look at what happens in your first minute when you're trading very fast in the morning. You need to reduce your data points. What should we try to do? Ibsorption and reduction are a part of learning. Right? So, if you don't iborate something, you can't reduce it. Are you getting my point? First, whatever you 're doing, expand it as much as you can. Then, start cutting it down layer by layer. Start shrinking it . To make it executable. Okay? Back then, when I was a very junior trader, a very novice, I used to keep everything accurate. Accurate quantity: slippage shouldn't exceed one hour. I'll feel bad, everything should be accurate. Okay? Today's order punching is such that you mentally calculate whether your 9,800 shares aren't coming. Whether they're coming or not, you simply place the order at 10,000. Right? You place the order at 5,000 . So, you don't have that much time, that much luxury, to execute the exact number. The number doesn't matter until the time you're getting the effect that is. Required. You can be imperfect and you can make an equal amount of money after that. So here, time optimization is far more important than the confirmation that your wall may give. But I will say that your wall is an absolute bullshit concept. There is no benefit from it. Right? That's why it should be abandoned. You will not get any confirmation. It will definitely waste your time. That much is certain, and you will not get any response in the first two-three minutes. It is going to be a very fake kind of a figure. The follow-to volumes are actually going to come a lot later. Okay? So, take out all the field DPs and see. Take out all the field lipi and see . If you see the volume bars, you can check the volume bars. If the volume bars are like ours, then we can trade for 15 minutes. And if the volume in my first 15 minutes is high, then I can consider it. Okay, good Navneet, it won't make any difference. So I will tell you what your volume is. It's not only the volume, it has to be reflected in the price. Volume is also always going to be a secondary aspect to your price. Okay? Even a failed EP right now is going to have a high volume in the first five to 10 minutes. Okay? When will yours come right? Volume. I can't, in fact, hide the volume from all these charts I was scrolling through right now. Okay? I don't think you'll find a very different decision-making in yours. I'll add one more point, right? There is a webinar that I had done on my own channel, which was a personal channel, there was a webinar on volume. I went to watch that webinar. So what happened was that in that webinar, I saw a concept in the Indian market that whenever the price goes up, you will always have volume. If the price goes down, you will always have less volume. Volume has no contribution in the interpretation of any kind. It is an absolute rubbish until the time, until the time it does not give you a contra inside. Right, what is a contraside? Right, high volume selling is coming, right, but that high volume selling is fake selling in most cases. We have to see that high volume means low volume selling is not less negative. Right, now what happens is that in some places you use volume for weightage. At some places you see that the price is going up but there is no volume at all. Then that is a case where you can use it a little as a contraside. Otherwise, there is Absolutely no use of you can say volume. One good question, what do you use? Just actually filter the liquidity. And that is not related to volume. One also Dinesh, I think I have an interesting question that will it be when the institution center will it not be reflected by heavy volumes? What happens, how heavy is it Dinesh? Okay? Because in the first 15 minutes you are anyway going to cross for sure your average daily turnover volume. If you are talking heavy volumes, what are you thinking? You are thinking what was the last 20 day average volume or what was the last 50 day average volume and how much more should it be? Okay? On any failed DP it is going to be higher than your average. And even on successful DP it is going to be higher than your average. Okay? If in all result does your volumes are going to be higher than average then is it really material of how higher it is it may be 10X higher it may be 15X higher and 20X higher will it add on to your decision making it is like that was a quote by Damodaran if everybody has AI no then no one has AI so if every earnings post day is going to have a higher volume okay then how will you buffer your decision making based on volume will you choose which one is 4X higher which one is that is better than a 2X higher volume that won't work no and one more point I will add here that when you want to buy with the institution you want to buy in the first minute first 5 minutes right here when you are waiting for confirmation from the volume you are waiting for the volume to come then you will buy right? So you are basically buying late if you see. Now the best teepees will get that much volume and they will also go up because the volume is coming and the price has not increased. That is a far more dangerous thing to have , right? Transactions are happening but the price has not increased. That is a dangerous thing to have, right? Now the point is you want the price to increase when the volume comes, then where will you buy? If you keep waiting for confirmation , you will end up buying late. You will end up buying expensive and you will And up buying away from the cost. Right? So don't do that. It doesn't add any value. Even the concept of 9 million volume, coined by Wande, is wrong. Just go and buy any ₹20 stock . Right? Any penny stock trades at very heavy volume. Right? How can you buy 9 million statically? That's the first question anyone should ask. Turnover is correct. You can look at turnover increases. You can look at relative volume. Everything can still work if you want to. But that 9 million volume figure, 9 million volume figure, used to be a stock worth 9 million . GMR Infra and GVK Infra were ₹8 or ₹10 companies. Right? I 'm talking about 2014. I'm not even talking about today. Their volume used to be 20-30 million daily. Right? So now you'll say there 's over 9 million volume. Right? And you'll say there 's no volume in MRF. Right? No other stock has any volume. The way this concept was presented, it's not about volume. Right? And what happens in the US is that they have a lot of pre-open trading. You can also look at the market afterward. India doesn't have all of that. Don't just import concepts from there and paste them here . The concepts will work, but the process won't work. Right? There's no benefit to be gained from R volume. R volume is absolute rubbish. And I guarantee you. What do people show? People say, look, this is a successful chart. It's a cherry-picked example. They'll show you a chart of where the volt wave is moving . They'll show you a chart of where the head and shoulders are moving . I tell you to study the opposite. Find all the failed stocks that are failed EPs. Don't bring a successful EP. Get all the failed EPs. Look at the volume of the first 510 minutes of those failed EPs. Then you'll see each one, and every failed EP that had moved up always had volume before failing. So what got you there? Every field breakout will always happen right. There is no edge in looking at volume figures, some chats, or your delivery percentage. These are not decision points you contain at 9:20 in the morning. Take in the real-time market. Don't add on factors which are not going to help your decision-making in real time. I never look at delivery percentage, whether it's at the end of the day or during the day, because what happens is the number of decision points you add is not what you fear with procedural money. What are your fears? First, you fear that a failed trade will occur. Will looking at delivery percentage reduce those failed trades? Do you have any quantified data to show that looking at delivery percentage will reduce your number of failed trades? I believe no one has such data. This is all made up, like a black cat crossing your path means bad luck. This is the kind of superstition that permeates all of technical analysis. You need to get rid of all the unnecessary supportive decision points. Just focus on what you see and what is in front of you on the chart, that is only what is real. Everything else is fake. Train your eye on that. You will be able to execute orders, and that is what matters. Nothing else matters. Trading is a very unforgiving business. You can make a lot of blunders, and you need one trade to recover. Right? So, even if you fail 50 times, you just need five to ten trades to recover everything. Don't worry about failure. Think of trading like a coin toss. If technical analysis contributes something, then tell me why do all the good technical analysts have a 30% or 40% success rate ? Because even if you flip a coin, you'll still have a 50% win rate. Right? Ghulam Magi is making money with a 30% win rate. Why should he be? He either shouldn't be making money. If he's a bad technical analyst, or if he's a good technical analyst making money through technical analysis, his success rate should be at least 70%. Then you'll say that technical analysis and charts are contributing something to his success. Neither of these things are valid. The point is making money on RR. There is only one edge in the market, and that is called RR. You can make absolutely anything other than that. You can be a bad trader, take random entries and exits, but if your RR is positive, you will end up with that. That is the one thing that matters not. So, don't be afraid of failure. Failure is part and parcel of business. Everyone feels their best trades. You can see that it is just how it is. Just focus on RR. Trading is very part and parcel. You can make a lot of mistakes and recover everything. Okay. Thank you. To take away, don't be afraid of risk. And it's important to debunk the myth that without debunking the myth, you can't grow. So, thank you for debunking it. Don't be afraid of risk. No, don't be afraid of failure. Right, I would like to add, there's a difference between the two. Right, failure. We put a lot of emphasis on, 'I finally took a trade, so how can the trade stop me out?' And how can I prevent it from stopping me out? Okay? So, it will stop you out. You have to be God to not get stopped out. Every trader places their stops during bad periods . They go into drawdown. I do too. Anurag does too. And every real trader in this world goes through drawdowns. There's nothing. Every trader fails. There's nothing to be ashamed of. You'll say a cricketer is batting. Right? He'll score a century every time. It's possible. There are so many cricketers in this world. Name me a single cricketer who has never scored a duck. Right? You can have good form. You can have bad form. Virat Kohli was out of form for five years. So does that make him any worse? So every trader goes through drawdowns, every trader goes through frustration. That's how real trading is. It's not easy, despite the fact that trading is a very demanding business. But if you have an ego and you believe that studying will completely contain your trading failure rate, there must be something you're missing. There must be some signal that will help you prevent failure. It doesn't happen. Focus on execution efficiency. Focus on fast execution. Optimize your trading. Instead of looking for that ghost, I mean, watching to see if any signals will emerge from it that will tell you that this will keep your success rate going. It's more about punching orders than avoiding them. Okay right. Chirag ji, I have a small follow-up question. Just a small follow-up question. How fast is fast? How fast is fast? Now that is an interesting question, right, because the only point I can tell you here is that I don't know how fast is fast. Right, I will just say that if I am taking time in quantity calculation and I can eliminate that through mental calculation, then I can be a bit faster. Right, there is no measure of how fast is fast, but if I feel that there is an unnecessary step which is not bringing a lot of difference to my training, I can eliminate that and attempt to be a bit faster in my execution. It is not that I should let me refresh this question in a different dimension, for example, the cases if I see most of the EP traders look for a 1 minute breakout minimum, okay, so my question is why not a 30 seconds breakout , okay, I agree, yes, yes, yes, please, please, so I will tell you Ishwari ji, why? Do I go into a lower time frame on EP? Okay, there's only one particular reason. If you go on a higher time frame, right? Take a five-minute, 15-minute, take a 30-minute. Okay, your data points in the first few minutes of an EP are going to be very high. The transaction volumes are higher. The ticks are higher. Okay, it doesn't make sense to go on a 1-minute time frame on a random stock at noon. Okay? Why are you going into the first initial minutes on EP? Because it's very volatile. Correct. The moment you start coming, yes, sorry, what am I saying? I'm not saying 30 minutes. I'm saying 30 seconds. Yes, yes, I'm coming. I'm coming. Yes, yes. 30 seconds, guys. Okay. Now, why do I take in 1 minute, 30 seconds? You can take in 30 seconds. You take 5 seconds. Take one tick-level data. That's not really relevant. What you're using is, do you know why you're using a time frame? You're just trying to get as precise an entry as possible. That's it. Okay? Why do you use daily ? Why do you use weekly? Okay? If you see a trend on the daily , it's going to appear on the weekly as well. If you see it on intraday, it 's going to appear on the daily. It's going to appear on the hourly. Some of the other time frames, at the lower levels, are you going to find your ah character of a breakout, a pullback, and a breakdown first. Okay? The higher a time frame you go, you're just waiting for a more confirmation that it has sustained. That's it. Correct? And if I go in for a 5 minute and a 15 minutes and 10 minutes which I normally use. Okay? I may lose out on a lot of initial movement that is happening in the first five minutes. Why? Because the tick levels that are coming in the initial parts are very high. Okay? It is very easy to use if you actually go, right? Right now, like I think KT or TradingView also started giving on second level data. Go there if it makes you comfortable. Okay? So there are so many pro des traders who are not even who are actually going on seconds. Okay, the only objective is to get the precision of an entry that's possible. Okay, what's the con of it? You would think that the lower the time frame I go, the more valid the noise level data will be. Okay, because if even two or three such nonsense entries are entered like a fool, that is going to spoil my chart. Okay, that can happen even on a one-minute chart. That can happen on a 5-minute chart. If that noise level is a bit higher, I will say that noise level on a 15-minute chart. Also, the first five are 1-minute. Purely because frankly, I can go lower. I can go higher. When we started backtesting, the procedural memory for me got developed at 1-minute. So, when we started, 9:16 what's happening? 9:17 what's happening? 18 1920 we started making each minute-level buffering calculations. Could we have done it in 30 seconds? Yes. Could we have done it in 5 seconds of play? We just chose a one minute where a procedural memory is god developed but very valid that you can take 30 seconds also if it is suiting you one many probable status actually do that many algos don't use a minute level chart they use a tick level chart ok ok very comprehensive it I think was a very good question and one which was of just a second I missed that one good question I thought I will take sorry I think I missed it somewhere in the chat sorry Vishwa ji take it I think I missed it time in the yes I think Nakul has a question yes also or how or your question on how fast is fast correct now for some people right even a 15 second 15 minute chart can be fast for some even a many people I remember what I say brother I don't even see it daily. I see it weekly . Okay? Some Twitter experts post monthly chart breakdowns . Okay? Monthly or this, so if you look at last year's breakdowns, they were posted quarterly, and multi-year breakouts were also posted. So, I mean, we're not as quick as that. But what about Ishwari? The only point is, right? How fast is fast doesn't depend on the chart at all. It purely depends on your hand-eye coordination. Okay? And how fast are you able to place your orders if you're doing it manually? Okay? If you go to a broker, normally there 'll be a 20-30 year old guy sitting there, trading on a Bolt trader. Okay? If you go to a broker in the 90s or 20 years ago, when trading was a lot more manual and done in broker offices, okay? You would have a broker office. There must be five or six bolt operators sitting there. There must be 20 people standing behind him shouting orders. Okay? So that 25-year-old guy has to not only type orders correctly in the right account, but also needs to identify whose voice is speaking. If Chirag dictates the order and adds it to my account, I'm going to abuse him. 100%. So what is it? How fast is purely dependent on the very stupid thing of being a typist. Okay? So right now, as I'm trading EP, I can never do it on a mobile phone. I can't even manage to enter orders. Okay? It's getting a little interrupted. Is it just me or someone else? Yes, you are the one who is hearing Ishwari's voice, Nakul. Okay, okay. Okay, it's clear. I'll continue then. Okay. So, right now, it's like EPIM, right? I can't trade it on a mobile. I need my laptop screen. I need my second screen. I need it in a particular tiled manner for me to execute fast. Woh thoda bhi upar uchhar ho jaata hai na. It's like a batsman finding out that his bat weight has gone up by 20 grams. So he will shave up that part of it. Okay? Right now, I play squash, I take the racket from 125 grams to 140 grams. Okay? My swing quality completely changes. So what it happens, right? This is a very pure, stupid, rudimentary work which will come out of practice. People over emphasize this a lot. Do it for two to three quarters. I think it becomes very easy. Kartik, keep talking about it on the group, right? He used to trade so maybe there is an issue Hello Ishwari ji is probably facing some issue ok Chirag ji can you hear me yes yes I can hear you I think there was some internet issue in your audio. Yes your screen was freezing in between. ok fine. ok. shall I continue Anurag ji I think everyone can hear you. Maybe there is an issue with my internet. So please continue. ok. ok. so what I was saying was the execution speed which is na this is purely not a theoretical concept. Set in front of a screen. Get it done. Do a few quarters it will be very easy. ok? Ah, like Kartik, I was giving an example, he was very positional, I mean, I used to tease him like a rule, Naaz, bhi yahi pe break hogi, only after that you will place orders while sleeping, right now I think he takes about 20-30 trades in a day, eight times, it is only about practice, so one of the early exercises that we ask the prop traders to do, right, when we used to come to this, we used to tell them procedurally, put alphabets Z, X, V, and at A, okay, and put reverse alphabets and type it, and then we used to time them, okay, when the first one used to enter, you will not even remember what the reverse alphabets are, okay, after Z, X, I mean, you have to think one by one, which alphabet comes, and all the time you are at somewhere in between M, and you won't even remember what the next alphabet was. So, the first thing people used to do in the first 10 times was just memorize the alphabet. Right? How does that sound in reverse? After that, typing speed came. After that, efficiency came. So, the only thing that took it was manual practice. Unfortunately, this is a craft, and it gets solved very easily. I don't think I'm a very fast typist. I'm still a dinosaur in many of my startup rooms, but I'm still comfortable in most of the EP execution which are there. In fact, I would say, from what you're saying, typing still, I can see that in many places. This first task has been given to all the newcomers. Yes, it's a very procedural task. Right? I mean, at the expert level , we call very common problems expert level . It's not in fact, if you want, people can go on to the EP webinar that we've also done. In that, we've also done some live trade simulations. One of it was last day when I think we had more than 100+ results. Right? How did we time those 100+ results, minute by minute? You'll see it was very smooth. Obviously, you'll miss trades. You can't take all the trades all the time. But it's reasonable enough to execute them smoothly. I'm also developing hand-eye coordination. An easy exercise is to not give a full account. Choose an account that won't impact your life. Right? Like 100,000, 500,000, 200,000, whatever is comfortable for you, 100,000. Right? And take a lot of EP trades. Keep buying whatever you get. Don't worry about whether you make money or lose money. Right? Just take it. We sometimes do this in the trade tab too. When someone comes in and is very fair in their execution, we tell them to take a short trade in the next month. Okay? Reduce your account size. Start punching orders and do a lot of orders. Right? Now, what does this do? When he keeps on taking trades, taking trades, taking trades, what happens? Hand-eye coordination automatically improves, and execution improves. And the fear of losing money goes away. Okay, okay, point taken, point taken, right. So let's move on to another question. Does factor theme strength play a role here? What I mean by that is that suppose a theme is working in a particular EP season. So, at the later part of the EP season, do you consciously try to trade in those themes? And the sector is working during that EP season, where the EP trades of the three other sectors are working, and you stay open and go by the same process? What you do maintain? Yes, I do maintain a bias. Your bias comes obviously, because subconsciously, you're also tracking those stocks even before the results. So, yes, there is a bias, but it will trump a mean if I see a better one and I completely go all in on an EP. It may not necessarily always happen. What happens often is that if it is already trending right, it is already priced in by the time a result comes. So, yes, that logically makes sense. Yes, the result will be there only, but this is very rare to an extent. In fact, the country happens, what many? Yes sir, no no, please go, in fact, the country what happens is especially in the commoditized sectors like cement and dairy and sugar or something. Okay? Where something unexpected has come in a leader. Okay? So from it, if I take this. I will take dairy. Okay? Something like da Dala and Hutson and something does you will start seeing that effect on the other sectors, other companies in that sector also on the same day. Okay? So if I am seeing a good result in Daudladari, I will start looking at Parag Milk. I will start looking at Hutson to see if the same factors are getting replicated there. Same things will start happening in sugar also in fact a country happens a lot better okay where you actually see a sectoral move happening because of an onyx yes yes yes that's true I will add one point in this I will add one point in this that if you have a running team right then it will not be neglected in most of the cases right so a very good concept by Pradeep Pandey is of plastics. He looks for themes, what he does is that he focuses more on two-three themes like technology, biotechnology. Now like Simro in cement. Okay? EP has come in it. Now you will say that my point is wrong because EP has come in Simro. But what is the point? If you get an EP network it is a far better than having an EP in a cement company. Because any increase in a cement company will mostly be due to an increase in factory capacity, resulting in an increase in earnings. It may be a temporary reason. However, with technology, you have a better chance of getting a better move. Comparatively, yes, the probability of that happening is a little higher. So, I consider this a difference. What's the other one? A very good idea is, like when you had your Mazdak run. Right? When Madak had exhausted itself and after that when it started running again, around April etc., in April, its result was on May I think 5th of June, your result for May June will probably be the result for May, so what happened at that time was that the earnings of Kochi were very bad and the earnings of Madak were very good, the earnings of Madak came after Kochi, so it was a sector that was in momentum, may be due to some reasons things were not played out in the prior quarter or the run had become too much, then it will be corrected. But at a later stage when the EP comes again, then that sector revives again. So that kind of situation, let's see. I think some net issue of Ishwari ji came up. Sorry I got disconnected sir ok got disconnected some problem ok so yes we will take the next one Ishwar ji there are many will go as per your flow if you missed something then you will do it separately hello Nakul yes Nakul hi ok guys can you hear me yes ok great so Anurag the question probably you were looking for which you wanted to answer is could be this semo ka day two entry exit or there was another question which said like what other factor should we check when there is significant ep before entry drink I have another question just I thought I will brush up on this if you wanted to answer any of these. ok fine. let's take the sample one only. let's take the chart only. just share the chart once any one. ok. and if you want centro or one after day one then let's pause. I will tell you my real time thinking about that point Nakul oh great okay now this was a very clean UP okay is then it hit an upper circuit okay now see the context of it it was a kind of on an upmove any before the result itself okay it has moved what about roughly about 20 30% odd before the results correct now what happens is when when you have a very strong upmove right from even two this may not be in a very strong upmove but what has happened is because of the upper circuit there will be a very immediate over extension correct that was my risk in this and this ofon happens so what happens is what are the two alternatives you have either you wait for a pullback what most of the traders actually end up doing okay but if you have a size on it you ideally don Want to mean do a lot in this means you don't want to wait for time na itna itna bada size leke kyun inefficient rehna? Okay? Right now In this case, look, now it is an upper circuit. Now, what are the two or three scenarios that can happen over the day? Okay? One is if it gaps up and goes higher. Correct. The overextended is getting even more extended. Yes, one. Okay? What is the second scenario? The gap goes up. Okay? Then a breakdown occurs. Okay? That means what? The gap up is not sustaining. So, most likely, I will end up with a negative red bar. I don't know how deep, but probably a red bar during the day. My general thesis may be this. If it actually gaps up, okay? The second scenario is that suppose it opens flat, then I will actually not have a decision-making point. I will just have to see how the follow-through is during the day. Correct from here, if it gaps down, that is the most bearish scenario after an upper circuit. So, it will either go down or hit a reverse. If it goes down, most likely I may get into a sell point, but I may want to buy back. So, what I actually do is many times I buy or sell it partially. Okay? This is still a magnitude trade for me. I am not changing my objective in anyway, but this is something which we call trading around a core position. You maintain a core position and then trade around it. Okay? So your trade core position may be 50% of your position, 2/3 of your position, whatever it is. Okay? Now let's do one thing. A 5 minute pay or a 1 minute pay can we just ah bar by bar replay come in or you are there okay just do this with me okay now see it has gapped up it's given your strong bath yes okay this is the next day we are playing it on now one minute here okay this it has given your strong bath extension is already yes one minute let's just set it one second we both these 1 minute is up shit hum or okay good yes so the right hand side is 1 minute the left hand side is daily correct yes okay yes chill let's take it further okay nothing much yet now see it is breaking down okay now you have got kind of a confirmation that it is not following through with your initial gap up okay? Now now my bears came out that if it breaks down kind of I was at that time predicting that it will go down. Okay? And I may at times want to buy this position back. Okay? But there's a flaw, right Nakul? Why we often lose a position is if you would want a perfect entry on the buyback. Okay? If you're thinking that the price will come down completely, your 10 DMA will catch up, the flag will start forming, you'll get a tight bar, after that you 'll go for an entry. What you have done is you have concentrated your entry timing to find a precise moment. Correct that. If you miss that from 10 minutes and a 30 minutes, you have lost out on your whole position. That is what I'm trying to eliminate. Since it's a magnitude trade for me, it's a positional trade for me. Okay, so what I 'm doing right now is suppose I sold somewhere here. You can see an evident breakdown, right? Yeah. Okay, there 's an evident breakdown. So now think of it like a short trade. Okay? Which I 'm going to trail very fast. I'm not going to lose my core position. Okay? Suppose I'm here, I think 837 types, I think where my cell was, put it for a minute. 832 and something you remember, 835, yes, something like that. Yeah. It was a cell of 837. Okay ? It was a cell of 837.5 on this one. Okay? I can see a very easy breakdown here, so I mean, no rocket lines in this. Okay, let's go a little further. Okay , now see, now this is breaking down. Yes, okay, now shorts. Right now, when I'm doing this, if you see this is still a strong stock, this is only expected right now to be a temporary pullback. Okay, so what I'm doing right now is the moment it comes down, okay, I'm not trying to make a big profit out of it. I'm just trying to cover my butt so that if it falls too low, right, I'm able to average my costs better. Okay? So, right now, as soon as it came down, right , I've got my buy order back at 836, 837 types. Okay? So, even if it comes up, I'm okay to get caught out. This is not a profit-making position for me. This is just a hedge position for me to an extent. Okay? Ah, you should come once in 5 minutes. Let's go a little further. Anurag, one question. The moment you punched in the sell order at 835 and 837, the same moment did you place a buyback order at a higher level, meaning did you have a stop loss for that? Yes, it was. So roughly about ₹34, okay, okay, it was there. Because I can't The risk is that it will immediately go up. Yes. So what am I taking at that time? I'm taking a risk that it's going to go three or four. There's never going to be a zero trade risk in this case. Okay? What am I doing at this time? I'm thinking that my risk to profit is a lot more than my risk to capital. Okay? If it goes up at this time, like Nakul, take from my entry, I think it was around 740, okay? So if I take it to 837, it's roughly what about 12.5% ​​up. 12.5% ​​up. Okay? So that's roughly if I had a stop loss of 1.5%, how much is that? Roughly about 8 and a half hours okay if it comes back down my profit risk is right now about six to see are easy yes so as you go higher into profit your risk to profit is always going to be much higher so if you were saying in the beginning na 737 pay you would never have taken a 7 hour 8 hour trade risk but you are right now taking a trade risk on profit yes okay so I am just trying to cover that good it okay right now it went down let's go a little further nothing right I am not profit booked I could have okay I could have saved something but I did not at that time for some reason okay so now let's go a little further friend I mean now you see some small consolidations coming in okay now this is kind of basing okay I was very rudimentary here brother I did not want to be on the screen my workout Starting out, I just put in a buy order at 8:35 and left, that's it. That's 832 and left. That's all the trade was about. Okay? If this goes down, what would happen, worst case scenario? My probability was, suppose it goes down from here, suppose it would be 800 or 780. I would probably have to come back the next morning myself to ease out my execution total. I'm not looking for the perfect entry. And that's the actual edge in this kind of management where you're not optimizing for perfection. You're optimizing for and working around a coal position or something very clear. So, this was one of those aha moments during a discussion with Anurag last year. I was having this problem because when I sold when it went up, it became very difficult to buy it again. So, usually, what used to happen was that the trade would come another tight bar, it would be a little more perfect. Then you got an entry. In that cycle, the stock would go on to be perfect, sometimes it would be perfect, or then you would get stopped out. So, this was one of those aha moments where you can sell and buy imperfect. So, I think there's optimization where perfection isn't paying off. But it's more about getting things done. That's what matters at that point. Okay, Nakul. This happens a lot. It's in EPs, where it's going to get temporarily extended. That's also a characteristic of an EP. Right? But I was afraid it would go down after the basing started . I didn't track the basing from the 10th to the 11th onwards. I just put an order and I was oscry. So someone had also asked how you do it with a working professional. I'm a working professional, and this is one of the best setups you can take. So we call it ROI (return on time invested), which is a lot more than ROI. What is your execution in EP? You can do it over there; there are many opportunities, but a lot of EP because of its character gets regulated in the first five to 15 minutes. So, if you are able to do that, will you still be 80% and nearly as effective as a full-time trader? Or , okay, great. Thanks Anurag and Chirag for this. I have a separate question which is regarding how do you manage trade in terms of EP? Ah Chirag had answered this over tweet. I remember when you buy EP trade it moves in your favor typically at one hour lets have 1.5% risk when when it moves one hour in your favor you move the SL to cost and cost plus does this happen like do you do this mechanically in all cases or is there a some sort of element where you can take a judgmental call one and secondly does you do this also for non EP trade let since you have traditional VCP a kind of a play positional play you are doing it is not necessarily a gap up EP do you also do trade management similar way both Chirag and Anurag for both of you this question is ok Chirag you can do it ok also people are asking we are at 12:40 Ishwari ji till when do we continue this session if not we will have additional questions later Also just asking to go into that depth, I think this Chirag ji, for how long we did this Not with Zoom, there was no issue with Zoom. The rest is that we had decided on one thing. We can decide based on how the situation is going and nothing else. So you tell me, you and Anurag tell me. We can do one thing. Let's take it to say about 110 115 Dada, I think so many questions, I don't think we will be able to cover in the next one. Yes, yes , what we can do is we can take them separately, we will answer them in the group, messages, and whatever, and we can keep a follow-up session. Also, I think both of them are fine for me. Yes, yes, okay, okay. Yes, Nakul, your questions were about when does the stop-loss breakeven pick up? Right, that is the first question that you ask. So, generally, what happens is that when you are trading with size, you don't want to give up a lot of time. This is generally a question. What happens is, do you want to let go? Do you want to let go of opportunity? And do you want to see what happens? If you optimize anything, something or the other will hit for it. Right now, identify a very big part of trading is to identify the devil you want to be with. You have to find the devil. Which devil do you want? You want that devil. Okay, now what is the point? If you look for opportunity. If you try to save, and you say, "I don't set my stop-loss break-even point, there 's a risk of getting stopped out," right? But you have this benefit. So, we do two things. One , we use data optimization. We use data to decide a level. Right? I'll get to that. But generally, I believe that if I stop out after trailing for one hour, I'll always get another trade . I'm always fully invested. So, I won't have the problem that once a trade is lost, it's gone. I can't do much about that. Now, let me tell you one use of data. Okay? We do this a lot within the trade line. So, one thing you should do is find an extreme. When will you set your stop-loss break-even point ? You'll do it at 3R. Or you can make it wider than that. Think about it completely wildly. You won't do it. After 3R, there's no limit to what you can do. What's the least you can do? We won't trade less than one hour. Right? The range is fixed. So now there's a concept in chess called the Law of Elimination. Okay? When you think about it now, you think it's a very difficult job. But now, what will we do? We eliminate everything beyond the 3Rs. We don't have information. We don't have information below one hour. Eliminate it. Okay? You pick a level. Trim your next 20 trades, 50 trades, in one hour to break even, or get data on past trades. Okay? Work both ways. Now, look at the data you extracted: you did one hour and you stopped out at one hour. How many trades did you take at break even? Because you traded your stop loss to break even, and it came back to your cost. Okay? Get all the data. See, how many trades would you have saved if you had used 2R instead of 1.5? How many trades would you have saved if you had used 2R instead of 1.5? How many trades would you have saved if you had used 2.5? And how many trades would you have saved if you had used 3R? Right? If 90% of your trades are just as successful using 1R, and only a few trades would have been saved if you had used 2R, then this means that using 1R allows you to protect your risk very quickly. Right? So, what happens in many places? For example, with a 1.5% stop loss, I have stopped applying the stop loss on the chart. My calculation is like this: If the price is ₹6, then place a stop loss ₹10 below it. Okay? If there is a stock worth ₹700 , place a stop loss ₹10 below it. If there is a stock worth ₹600, place a stop loss ₹10 below it . How fast can you speed up execution? Place a ₹10 stop loss. What's the benefit? Right? You have to risk ₹10,000. Divide it by 10. You get 1000 shares to buy. Easy. Very easy. So, you gain a lot of speed in execution with this kind of calculation. Right? It's worth ₹3. The stock is worth ₹300. Place a ₹45 DP stop loss. Very easy. Right? Now what about here? Do a data analysis here and see if you're taking 1.5%. If you're taking 1.5%, how many stocks are settling for you? Right? Could you have improved it? If you find out that 90% of the trades are still coming there, then you're fine to do that. Now, the point is , the moment you delink your stop loss from a chart structure, you'll see it go below the swing low or the day low. Right? A lot of new entry opportunities. Come into force. Right? Why can't most people who teach anything ever think of a day-two entry? One reason is that they always want to place their stop-loss at an anchor point on the chart. Right? Now, once you eliminate this forced concept, you'll see that your creativity will come to you with a lot of ideas. In the same way, you should use data in many places. When to trail to breakeven? Using data is a very useful thing because wherever you encounter a mental barrier, always quantify it. Fairly quantify it. If you encounter a mental barrier, quantify it. One hour, if you feel it's too early, tell me how early it is. Show me on the data how early it is. That's the key point. The moment you figure out the data, you'll get the answer to that question. Right? Another thing is where we'll do this. The second point is where you asked whether we can base our judgment on something. Right? Should I switch somewhere? Sometimes I set my stop loss a little faster, at breakeven. If I don't feel like making money, I generally delay it very little. So this is my adjustment, right ? I've made myself comfortable with this devil: I want size, right? I want speed. I want size, and I'll trail my stop loss to breakeven quite fast. If my trade is going for that, let it go. No problem. I'm very precise in buying. I don't need to talk about it. Right? Good. So I will take you more binary options Nakul if you see data that shows 80% of the earnings gap ups are going to fail. Okay, that means at least when we found out, I think this data hasn't changed a lot in the last three years, but 80% of the gap ups fail. Okay, so I'm inherently a lot more risk conservative as a person. Okay, so if I want to increase my risk appetite in trading, right, then I need to have some execution set, meaning techniques where it is allowing me to take more risk. Okay? So let me take it like I've written something about a win rate hack. Okay? I don't like a 30%-40% win rate strategy. It creates a negative loop in my mind. I would rather have a 70-80% kind of a win strategy. Okay? And what do I need to do for that? I need to do two things. One, I need to keep a very tight initial stop loss. Second, I need to raise my stop loss as fast as possible to cost plus. Okay, if I am able to do these two things, I should be able to hack my win rate. Okay, the bottom line is, I may be shaken out a lot more. Okay, so your question is, does this only happen in EP? EP is a basic setup which is formed out of FOMO. Okay, so your feedback is, okay, that is going to be very immediate. By 94510, more or less, you know whether your trade has become risk-free and whether you have gotten stopped out, it is so fast. Correct, so if my management technique is right, of taking the stop loss up very fast, it works the best in EP, it may work on VCPs, but it works the much better of a concept on EPs. Okay, so a one-hour trade, correct, is a worst-case possible outcome for me, a breakeven trade is also many. Times a win because if it is breaking even, the proportion of it taking me out and then going up has been lower. Okay? I will take a couple of cases. Well, we can take a couple of charts. I think that is a good question. There were a lot of similar questions as well. We can take on the management also. Yes. Anurag ji, while you look at the charts, I want to ask you one thing. When you take an AP trade, do you put a stop loss at the same time or do you do it later ? Yes, okay. Let me take that as well. Which one, let's take yesterday's only. Let's just take thanks. So let's take a good case scenario and the bad case scenario. Okay, when I say buy, do I put a stop loss at the same time as punching the buy order or later ? Or will I take it? I will take it with the execution minute by minute. Okay, I exactly probably run through my thought process as well. Okay, this was also a question from someone, whether we look at the previous pattern. Right now, a very typical flag is visible here. Okay, one question, are the participants who are there before the results? And the participants who are there after the results. Are they even if they are the same? Are they going to put up with the same mindset? No, right? There is a new information which has come. There is a new urgency which Has come. So everything right now, this flag that has come up, it has now become irrelevant. Yes, it looks good. It may probably think that a base breakout is happening, it is happening here, all of it. But every decision-making point of what people are taking here is probably has come out with a new confirmation and a newness to it. So the character of the buying that is happening today and the character of buying that was happening in the flag is very different. Okay? So let's say this is not a pattern base setup. This is an actually money-making setup. Okay? Let's go ahead. Come on. Let's play it for 1 minute. I will also tell you how slow it is. Yes. Now see Nakul look this is at 1 minute right now this is a negative bar kind of it has gapped up and it has slightly given negative okay this is your best possible scenario to have I will tell you why the gap up has happened okay and right now if I take 1 minute, na how much was it around 4400 correct now what does the buyer have to do in the second minute okay he has to take out the 1 minute and he has to put orders which will now increase the price by what? Roughly about ₹100 more. So gap up has happened which is my initial validation of demand. Now for a red bar now to be taken out that has to be a reservation of demand. What initially a lot of people were posting. If it happens at the first minute and it does itself then I even need to wait for the 5 minutes to be done. I don't need to write. I already got my confirmation. Correct. Ye Ishwari ji you can get in on 30 seconds also if you want. The time frame is in the material. No be on the point. Okay? Now here it was around 4400. So immediately what I put it was roughly a bit around 4380 770. Correct it takes out and it goes. Okay? Chirag go ahead. Let's play miley. So you put the big in advance. Yes. So if you're going to enter at 9:16 or 9:17, right? You expect it will take you about 15 to 30 seconds to enter. Okay? So take in that buffer time if you are putting at 96 you can't start putting at 916 you will miss it, by the time you go to type it will run away correct so what this order actually helps you know this has now given you a minute or two to easily put your orders at lager okay what are the toughest entries do you know if immediately like this five to six minutes continuously back to back green bars come no those are the most difficult to take correct absolutely I will miss a lot of orders also or while you put the order in advance do you put the stop loss also no no no no no no no no it is only after fill because the moment you put in your stop loss also your double margin will get utilized according to the broker you can't put in a sell order till you have an valid buy order on it this thing Zerodha It is different in. Well, is it different? Yes in Zerodha you get an option where if you want to keep a flat stop loss say 1% or 1.5% just put the percentage and you can punch the order they will not place the order until you are filled if this is the best then great I don't have it in ICICI than good so if it is like that then put it a flat stop loss my stop losses are whatever the least and maximum 1.5 to 2% if it is that I would directly go to 1.5 to 2% now you will find your stop loss or okay and there are also some questions about stop loss I will come to that also okay let's take it one by one now you got trigger Nakul okay here is the stop loss okay now if you see every time whenever there is an EP right your first after 1 minute it is always going to be a wide range path okay the moment you start taking an ADOL of a stop loss You are now going to go easily 4, 5, 6% up, which will completely destroy the math. Okay, right now I'm holding the upside from here. If the thesis of FOMO in an EPS is valid, right? Do I really need to wait for the whole LOD to be taken out to actually identify your value? Confirm a squad. No, I don't. So, ideally, what I want to look for is, suppose a pullback comes from here. Okay, if it is a deep pullback, it should not be as deep as the LOD. Okay, so if one were to simply place an ideal buy point, it would also be an ankle point. Let me take the breakout buy low for example, okay? A valid ankle point to place a stop loss. So, even if I kept a 1.52% stop loss, my breakout low is what? Roughly about 30% or 40%. Okay? Which should be roughly what? About 8 to 1% of my stop loss. Yes. Okay? So even if I've taken a 1.5 to 2% stop loss, I don't need to wait for the full one hour to actually stop me here. One. Okay? A second LOD if you put it in, and the math completely goes for the toss. If you see most of your best EPs are never going to come down much below your cost anyway. So that MA concept, your winners are you, immediate winners. What was Danger? Winning races, winning horses never come back to the gate. Those are the most applicable to an EP because if it is going to go up, it is going to go up immediately. Yes. Correct. Let's go a little further. Let's go. Okay? Now see this is a pullback now if this fails the stop out chance is very high yes okay let 's now this break this is an intraday flag very good yes this was the pyramid which I missed okay and those who do 5 minute buy they will buy this or okay now this worked right okay you also had 1 minute five right now from here it got squared okay Nakul this is a very bad square then if at all it happens yes. Okay? So if I also take the breakout bar that is a good enough level to keep if you are even more conservative like how I normally am I will keep it at cost one. Okay? Now if you see this one which is the breakout bar which came 925 go yes. Okay, why am I strengthening it here a lot more? This breakout bar is even stronger actually if you see the gap up, okay, and the bud where my trigger was. This buyer is actually putting in more money at a higher price. Yes, correct. Okay? Have you seen in the last 10 minutes where we look at the right, we did not look at volume. We did not look at R1. Okay? None of it actually affected our decision-making in any case. Okay? It just moved up from here and got spotted, right? What does that mean? Whatever initial buying momentum there was, it is starting to weaken. Yes, correct? That in itself invalidates the whole EP theory. Yes, okay, this is the best case scenario where your MA is zero. Okay, let's take another scenario when you will take a full one or two. Which one was one and hey, let's take India, for example, Nipon. Let's take it on the 28th of April. Same in that too, if we play intraday. Yes again, yes, or see. This is okay, typical negative bar. Nakul, okay, this even two, it looks green, it is negative. Okay, same kind of unwanted, put it here. Okay, I go in. Okay? Get stuck. Yes. Okay. It's here. Now here, as soon as I place a stop loss, let's say I put it a little 102 1/2% flat here, for example. Okay? ₹15 and go a little further. Let's immediately squat? Yes, done. Okay. I could just do it when it goes down to squat. Did I really get a chance to protect my butt anywhere? No. There wasn't a chance, right? So, what would happen? This is your worst-case scenario where it would immediately break even and take out your full stop-loss. This should only be your minus one-hour scenarios. Otherwise, in 80% of the cases, right? You'll have some of the other chances where your initial bust is so high that you're going to have a chance to raise your stop-loss and not go to minus one-hour. You're taking a partial loss. Yes. Okay? Ah, if you go on my profile, there's a ah, winner hack one that one of our students had actually compiled my whole EP trades and seen. So, if you see where my a lot of edge also lies, no one is in break-even trades. So, if I split my 100 EP trades, right? From about 30 to 40, I think about 15 and 10 would be loss-making trades. Okay? And out of those 30 to 40, I think hardly about 15 and 10 would be like minus one. Most of the trades would be less than 5. Okay, a lot of trades, from about 40 to 50% of the trades would be breakeven trades and close to breakeven trades. Okay? That 10 to 15%, which really go big, will end up having a double-digit impact. So that's a double-digit impact every season, right ? If you get three or four, or even two or four, you're up by about 20% plus every quarter, that's what I'm targeting. So the reliance in this game is to keep on playing that from 30 to 40 trades of EPs that you get every year. You will end up with anywhere between three and six trades at the end of the season, which will end up making your year. Or Anurag, one question on this one. See the third bar you and ah got entry. It is a very strong big bar. Would you not move your SL similar to what we discussed? I could have done it hypothetically yes but I did not notice that at that time I was looking at other stocks, so I did not pay attention, so I took a full minus one, but hypothetically yes the sign would have been on the side, but I took a minus full one hour, so I took this exam, this question is also coming because it came down, if after the third time it would have gone up from here, then you would have asked that if it came down then what was the reason for paying the stop cost so early? No no this is real time diamond limit that's why ask the better to do one approach only that how we look at previous example that we move it to the breakout bar low little below that may be just to give if breakout decision was very imperfect absolutely it seems but they are very real time very imperfect and it but I don't want to be perfect beyond the point that bhai woh unnecessary optimization ho jaaye I I want to keep my execution and clarity of mind as the priority rather than become an ana ana ana ana ana ana ana ana analyst understand okay very clear on this thank you very much both of you very useful this is now makes helps make peace with selecting the devil okay I think we have a hard stop on 15th because I think there is some work ahead so then we will connect with whatever else Question we will get right if there is one question then we can take so we are around one one we can take one more question I suppose or we can take if anyone has a question from the chat then we can take that which is the document we can take that later as well as okay so if there is a question on lock I think okay but what are you thinking you entered lock first minute high of the first huge green berth ah okay we will have to look at the chart. You want to take lock then do it because that too I actually stopped out. I came out at break even. The second half was that run. Okay we have to take it. Yes okay. Let's take it. Let's take that. Yes. I think it is done. This day yes yes this day we stopped out. Just take a one-minute picture. I think Shrestha was the only stock that was also in the radar that day. I don't think there were many stocks on the radar that day. And I think it starts with the first minute being strong, so where should I buy? So, yes, what actually happened here, Shrestha? I will tell you, I remember this now, in the second minute, when I was looking for an entry, you will still kind of be rudimentary in this case, where you are looking for a tight bar and a negative bar. Okay? This second-minute bar that you are actually seeing, I saw it in about 10-15 seconds. This was, I think, one of only one or two stocks, and probably one of the primary stocks on the radar. At 9:15, I had actually seen this as a red bar in the first 30 seconds. Actually, if you look at it for 15 seconds, you might see a different pattern. Okay? So, after these two or minutes, when it went from the bottom to the top, I actually saw it as a red bar, and I placed an entry above it. This looks a lot better in hindsight and shows me, as an expert, that it wasn't a normal entry where I saw a red bar and placed an entry about it. So, if God had said to put it on a lower time frame, probably you would see an admit, but it was a normal flag, kind of an entry, only which I had taken. Yes, Chirag, there is a question for you above the wall. If you don't look, what will you see in life? What was the right approach? What happens mainly? Two or three things happen. First, you chose based on the context. And one thing that happens, just as Anurag said right now, is that the red bar, which appears, actually has no meaning. It simply provides an anchor point to gauge the demand, and nothing else. So, we mostly look at the opening action to see where we can place a trade. It's pure price. We don't need to look at any other data factors. We look at the price and see where we'll get a safe entry. Safer, in other words, means that any kind of confirmation is safe. If you find an anchor point where you can place an order, that's all you see. If you have a bias, or if you have momentum in your favor, you just look for something to place an order, nothing else. From 9:15 to 9:08, the more confirmation points we find, the more difficulty there will be. Okay, let's take one last one. I think Vivek had one. Vivek, you want to unmute. You want to ask. It's quite long for this if you are there. Okay, I will read it out. Then, how to manage positions effectively when one is already deployed in the middle of an EP season and even better earnings start coming. What questions to ask yourself before we trim and exit running positions to accommodate trade for better opportunities? Can we be mechanical about this in any way? And is it going to be discretionary? Always, Ishwari ji, please give two of your laddus to Vivek as well, which is in your hand. I think he also wants to eat the two and have it one in the mount. Also, Vivek, you can't, so that has been done, and I hope you have this problem. So, that we also have this problem today, like I am already deployed, right, I was, I don't know. If you're there at the time, I'm a bit off from the positions I took yesterday, so then next week whatever positions come in, I'll have a bit of margin left for it. But this will always kind of be an extended partial rule, partial discretionary. If at all there was a way to be perfect, please tell me. But no way can you get all the parts completely correct. There's the opposite of what we're talking about. For example, a new EP trader is racking up losses. But he just took a trade and made a good profit, enough to cover his past losses. He stopped. Now, he'll have a lot of doubts, thinking, "Brother, should I cut this? At least I 'll have my past profits. Who knows, it might fall or let it run." What would your advice be? Okay. Again your previous question is same Aishwarya ji, are you playing the trade and are you playing your PnL? In the whole question you never mentioned about the trade? You mentioned about the PnL effect of the trade? Yes PnL correct, right? So then what are you trading? Are you trading your well being or are you trading the trade in front of you? Well being. So then choose if you are well being at that point if you think it is going to affect your overall decision making overall many it is a practical way. So just now like someone asked na I trimmed of Bandhan yesterday I may be very well proven an idiot on Monday morning if it goes up because a structure is not broken it looks like a good enough flag and many of the people may actually want to pyramid there. I took a call, "Brother, I'm not feeling well." Let me prioritize there. I may prove I get to your point. Let me rephrase it that way: What would you have done? For example, your five trades have not worked out and all hit stop losses. Now you're sitting with a 10% profit and a 10% stop loss. Okay? And now your 11th trade came to a halt. What would you do? Because I want to read how a trader like you reads this situation. I'll give you an answer. Right? Stop looking for the perfect answer in this world . Be at peace with imperfection. Do whatever you want. This morning, I was talking to a trader. He was a very good trader in the US market with a multi-million dollar account. And he blew out one of his accounts by a million. Okay ? And he had reached 50,000 dollars. And what happened now? He just had a trade of 1 million that went to 2 million. He was trading at over 2 million dollars. Okay? So I asked him how do you trail? Because I showed him all his PNL. There were some spikes in it. I asked how these spikes come back down. So what are you doing to make this happen ? He was also looking for guidance, and he was referring to futures. But during the call, he showed me the PNL and other things. I asked him what happens here? The spike doesn't flatten after the spike. That spike goes down. So now he's back up about 75%, and his PNL is around 1.23. Around 1.23 million, he was above 2 million. So I asked him how do you trail now? To make sure it doesn't spike back down. So he told me that I placed stop losses in these tiered ways. My objective is one: I don't want to go below 2 million. Okay. Right? Now the point is one thing, right? He is also trading well in... Right, the point is that as traders, we think, don't we, we want to be very strict on ourselves? Right, you want to be very strict on ourselves, be fine with imperfections in life. If you call me learning, I have... I learnt this thing that you are a human, you are not a machine, emotions make a difference to you, you want to trade the chart that is in front of you, not your well being, but it is perfectly fine to trade well being as well. There is one trade in life, you can take 10,000 trades, it does not make any difference. Do not put so much emphasis on every decision that you should be, meaning you are becoming God. Do not put so much emphasis on that thing. Accept the floss, the weaknesses that you have, make peace with that. I made peace with all my floss. Anurag made peace with all his floss. And that is why we are able to survive in treatment. That is more important. Interesting, very interesting answer Chirag ji, Anurag ji, still my opinion to you, it still remains and I would like to see how you would deal with this. So drawdown is a feature in your trading, not a bug. Okay, if you give the examples that you are giving right or column or something, that they are going to get into a drawdown, then we had given a video about Zeng, just check it, if you see, I will tell you what was very important I opened to me in that session . Okay? Actually, whatever we put in the session, I think that was only 20 to 30% of what we actually learned because we went through all the newspapers in depth by watching each trade. Okay? What was in our mind, at least in my mind, was that the 99 market was a stupid market. I mean, if even a monkey can make money anywhere, he will become a millionaire. Okay? Only when we looked at the news of it. Didn't I realize that everyone was okay? He is doubtful about the market. Like last year, indices were at an all-time high. The breath is absolutely the worst. He compares the breath again to 1929. Okay? That, I don't know, has become an ankle point. 1929 has to come in every pullback. Not a point. Correct? Still, he was very aggressive on risk. Okay? I will tell you why. It came down to his objective of why he wants to trade. For his objective was not success or failure. I mean, his actual failure was mediocre. If you are most of the people who are with a small account, right, suppose I consider a portfolio of Rs 50 lakh and below as a small account, suppose you are with a portfolio of Rs 10-15 lakh. Okay? In a bull market, if you end up with 20% to 30% of a return, that is a much bigger failure than a drawdown. Because you have never risked so much, and you have wasted so much of your time and effort that you have meant gone into a middle class in your life. Beyond the point, it is not going to have any impact. This is not a career where you are going to see 10% to 20% increments every year. And in 15 years of your career, you will probably be a lot more comfortable. It is not that kind of a career. It is a high-risk, high-reward career. There will be points of sprints, there will be points of marathons. In this case, what there conviction was, I am going to get into a drawdown, but the actual skill was how to get out of a drawdown. If you keep cutting every 10%, isn't it, Ishwari ji, you're only optimizing for your drawdowns ? You 're not optimizing for your upside beyond that point. I'll tell you how it works. I did the same. Right? You'll reach a point where you'll see decent performance. You won't be very down because you're maintaining a stop loss. Right? You're never going to blow out. I never got blown out, and that wasn't my flaw, but because I never took so much risk at the start that I've ever ventured into a deep drawdown. But my problem was I never captured so much of the upside either. Right? So, I was stuck in that median zone for many years, where I was neither going very high nor going very low. I had to increase my portfolio volatility to increase my return percentage. So, when portfolio volatility goes down, that in itself will give you confidence once you've recovered it a couple of times. Okay? Twice you'll think, "Brother, I'm cutting you off. I want to play my own game." Okay? You'll go through a feedback loop. You'll get irritated. Okay? The market went up x%. I only did x/ 2%. Okay? Even after all this risk management yesterday, I didn't make any money. Okay? The second time you'll feel probably more frustrated. That's where a lot more people either quit trading and go a lot deeper into it and actually start understanding the risk they're taking. The problem for most traders isn't risk management. They're trying to manage risk without even taking any risk. Okay? So it is going to happen that you will go into a drawdown. It is a feature. It is He's going to be inevitable at his trading. You may criticize him for coming down from 100 million to 40-50 million today. But most people would give their four kidneys together, or even their families, to get their 40 million. Let's get to a level first: until then, a drawdown is a feature, it's not a bug. Got your point? Just a small follow-up question. Just yes, no, probability does Kogi trade so often on that day? Like what we suggest here, Kogi trade so often? What I'm saying is, does he take that many trades during the course of that day, two, three days? I think he used to take a lot of trades. As far as I remember, he probably took 1,200 trades in a year. I did a lot of trading in 2020. In fact we have looked at their open positions, don't even look at Ishwari ji, what number of trades do you look at from the point of open risk that they are taking, most of the times that open risk was in double digits. If I go to 2020 and 21's streams now cola maggi then most of the people have not seen you will see 202 open positions. Double digit open risk or ok ok fine or now you simply add what was your initial stop loss risk, what was your capital risk, add in your profit risk no where it is not possible that he would not have it in double digits otherwise how will you get so much leverage ok if your open risk is only from two to three hours how much will you earn in a day beyond the point it is not going to go to 30 hours no ok got your point I got my answer also or your scaling up will only happen Ishwari ji when you are risking large unrealized profits for higher realized profits ok so manage like a day trader but hold it like a positional trader kind of so save your capital risk but take very large profit risk if you want that is the only way beyond the point you can scale up ok got my answer Thank you, okay, and yes, Chirag ji, are you saying something? No, no, I think if we can wrap it up now, that will be good, I think. Okay, let's wrap it up. First of all, thanks a lot, Chirag ji. Anurag ji. I must say I have learned a lot. And I am sure all the participants will echo my thoughts and express gratitude to you. And Chirag ji. And if this opportunity strikes again, we will have some similar meeting in the near future. Thanks. Or definitely. Thank you so much for getting us together. I mean, I regret that I could not take all the questions today because of the positive time. We will try and take up as much as possible later. Or thank you. Have a good day. Bye. Let's take care again. Have a good day. Or bye.