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okay folks welcome to lesson eight uh one shot one kill trading model for the short term Trading module for ICT mentorship this is the last of March's content okay one shot one kill setups what does it require to do these efficiently and successfully well first you have to know all the macro conditions and all the January content lessons you have to be proficient with understanding the if the data ranges looking back at the last 20 40 and 60 trading days looking for PD array Matrix Concepts applied to both time and price you need the understanding of position trading logical Concepts you need to understand the swing trading module Concepts the short-term trading tutorials on the ICT website the power 3 concept applied to weekly candles or ranges and I'll talk about that in a few moments the intraday Concepts from ICT day trading modules day of week concept looking for the high or low to form on Monday through Wednesday with a 76 odds of it happening using fibs for targeting and understanding the correct price points time of day or ICT kill zones for entries on one shot one kill setups and you need to know the seasonal change that may impact or frame directional setups and lastly you need to understand the CRT or commitment of Traders analysis and Commercial hedging programs now I said when we started this mentorship that this was intended to fill in the gaps that I purposely left in all my free tutorials now if you've gone through the mentorship so far and you've not really studied all of my free tutorials that are on my website now's where you're going to feel that sting of having never done it it was intended and I've told you before the prerequisite is to know those free tutorials everything that I'm going to show you in this module is really just a quick fill in the gaps and then you'll understand how it is I do one shot one kill the gaps that remain for this month are filled in with the intraday Concepts for day trading and it just basically helps you get more precise do you need it not necessarily well you want it most likely so if you've gone this far and you really want to know all the intricate details about how I finally narrowed down very tight small risk high yield setups like you've seen now lined and mapped out this week with the euro dollar yeah you need the intraday Concepts to get that precise but you don't need it to do one shot one kill because you don't need here's other things that uh help you get close to but not that precise that's already been showed in the content for this month and the previous months now as it relates to the cot analysis and Commercial hedging programs obviously everyone's aware of the commitment trades report where they plot the net Trader's position of each commercial and small Speculator and large Trader and Larry Williams was the first one to do real good work on that back in the 70s with his book uh how I made a million dollars during Commodities last year but in my own study I believe I've taken it to another level no one else does what I do with the CO2 data and I'm going to show you again this module and it's teaching how it is that I uh incorporate that information now when we get to the commodity section later on this year when I'm teaching the Commodities I'll actually show you how to go in and construct the commercial hedgers program and how to look for a high probability setups using the information but I'm going to give you one set up in here for the euro dollar that was just like a no-brainer so you'll see why this week was just pretty much no problem at all knowing that it was going to come down like it did all right so the one shot one killed trade procedure okay this is kind of like a back of a matchbook idea just real quick short and what I mean by that is you should already know a majority of what I'm going to refer to here procedurally so this is the reason why you need to have a mentorship this is the reason why you have to have a modular approach to learning because there's such a vast amount of information that you need to be aware of you just simply can't make a video and here it is here's how you trade for those that have gone through all of my free tutorials and this far in the mentorship you can now think about how much information you now have now you probably flounder for a little while wondering you know do I have too much information do I have analysis paralysis and it's simply because you haven't had a procedural way of using all the information so we've gone through a lot of content between the free tutorials since 2010 all the way to now now through 2016-2017 Circa you are now learning all of the procedural things that fills in the gaps and by the time you end this mentorship you'll know everything there is to know about ICT Concepts and how to apply it but the first thing we do when we look at our market and we're going to use euro dollar as our example we're going to determine the current or potential next quarterly shift remember that we talked about that in January we're going to identify the higher time frame PD arrays in the ipta data ranges again that's content from January we're going to refer to the interest rate differentials and Market profile of the rates in other words our interest rates or treasuries or the the Bund are those markets trending or are they stuck in a consolidation if they're trending then you're going to get movement permitted in the euro dollar if they're Consolidated and tight it's going to be very hard for the market to move around we're going to be scouting seasonals throughout the calendar year that offer High odds of a move going higher or lower based on the seasonal tenancy respectively we're going to use swing analysis on price action on higher time frames down to the 60 Minute chart so in other words what we're doing is we're classifying all the price swings we're looking at all the fractals and we went over how larger Trends have smaller swings that break into smaller swings that break into smaller swings first an Impulse swing then an expansion swing after the retracement so by looking at the market in a euro dollar and breaking that down we can come to the conclusion of what price swings we're going to use for projections measurements and retracements we're going to anticipate specific weekly profiles that may unfold based on our analysis if we're looking for lower prices as we're going to justify in this teaching we're going to be looking for specific Market templates if you will that allow bearish ideas so the first thing you would look for is the Monday high of the week Tuesday high of the week Wednesday reversal those types of scenarios then by identifying those respective templates for the week we're going to be looking at the market maker manipulation templates to have the respective profile characteristics then you determine where the premium and discount ranges are in price action and you're going to wait for volatility to Signal a high odds of a large range being created in other words when range expansion should ensue small ranges we got large ranges if the Market's in big ranges we know there's going to be a high probability for the market to go quiet we want to be getting in the market as quiet so that we can expand and get larger ranges and big volatility we're going to refer to cot which is commitment of Traders in the commercials versus the large Traders and open interest to confirm smart money action we look to frame a low resistance liquidity run with opposing PD arrays or for bearish we're looking to sell short at a premium PDA and then we're going to be looking at a discount PDA to pair it up with we're going to use fibs converging with opposing PD arrays and blending it with time and price in other words what I'm looking for is the Fibonacci level that overlaps with a logical discount PD array and we'll be confirming our trade setups with inter-market analysis all right so we're looking at our one shot one kill set up on a euro dollar now this was provided to you this week the time of this recording the last week of March 2017. I outlined through Twitter and tweets the basis of expecting a high the form in the euro dollar around the 109 08 level that was the level I called and the actual high was 109.09 on the Forex ltd's platform I projected a low of the week at 106.50 that could have rolled over into Monday but throughout the week I gave a 1-0 6.95 low objective and then ultimately at the very last minute of the day on Friday's close uh they pushed the euro dollar down to 106.55 now our objective is 106.50 if that's what we're looking for we add five Pips To That that would have been uh your objective used in your own platform some Trump traders in my own live feeds I got down to 106.497 I'll leave it up to you to determine what you know what your data provider allowed for the low of the week for euro dollar but uh for the Forex LTD it didn't make it down to 106.50 but I'm suspecting it's probably going to open up lower on Sunday that's coming this weekend and then obviously uh you know that would fulfill the whole projected uh swing but we're gonna go into great detail about all this amount apart from what's already been shared in this chart here I'm not going to rehash what was already talked about in this week's teachings in the videos and and commentary because that is in my opinion a gold mine and you need to go through those notes as well but what framed this whole move and how I knew that the high could most likely be formed on Monday and we would look for a low 106.50 we're going to go into details about that now okay so the first thing we're looking for is we're expecting either uh up move or a down move so how do we start doing that well we go to our seasonal tenancy okay if you're a sports fan you'd like to go and watch a specific sports team like the baseball season or football season you can actually track when those teams play and what days and the calendar days and all that and you know when they're going to play they have a they have a schedule they have to keep well the markets almost have like a built-in generic schedule as well and and is followed or tracked by way of using a seasonal tendency now I shared these seasonal Tendencies with you so far in the mentorship and what we do is we look for times where the market has a real clear indication in both the long term and short-term basically the blue and the red lines they have to agree with a directional bias and when they move in the same direction red and blue if they move in concert with one another we have a really strong tendency to see that market generally move in that same direction what we're going to focus on here is the month of March as you can see it initially starts off with a rally up into the middle of March and then it declines to the last week of March going into the first week of April so our tendency is to see the euro dollar going lower so we have a strong seasonal tendency for bearish prices for euro dollar now we're going to go over to the commitment of Traders hedging program now you're not going to find this on the internet there's nothing talked about it's not in books I swear to the Lord Almighty there's nothing out there like what I'm showing you here okay what I do is I use the information from the community Traders report and I make a new way of uh creating a zero-sum line so what I do is I look at the last year okay and I get the highest high and the lowest low of their commercial activity in other words I'm only tracking commercials and I'll show you how to create all this and make it for yourself it's um a complete bull in our group have emailed me asking for this specific indicator there is no indicator okay what I actually do is I actually create this with paint okay I grab the information and then I actually by hand create it and I know what you're thinking well I track 39 markets Michael there's no way I'm going to keep up with that well that's your fault you should be tracking 39 markets but when I focus on the two pairs that I like which is Euro and cable it takes literally seconds for me to do this and it's not a big deal but if you're going to be that hard up about it I'm sure some of you that are in our group um are capable of programming something I'm certain of it but uh once you learn how to do that when we do go into our commodity teaching I'll leave it up to you uh you smart whippersnappers to throw something together maybe for mt4 platforms it can uh you know provide us a real quick easy way of doing it and then you can go back to trading you know um team number of pairs with the information but what I do is I look at the hedging program that is illustrated by looking at the last calendar year so I rollback data for 12 months and I look at the highest high and the lowest low in their net positions of the commercials only I'm not looking at the large Traders or the small spec I don't really care what the small specs are doing but when we track commitment to Traders report data or cot data every week this uh cftc commodity Futures Trading commission requires traders that trade at a reportable level to report whether they're buying or selling and the net positions that are held because commercial Traders are like Banks and large institutions and manufacturers of goods or commodities there are groups that produce their commercial level and there are groups that are consuming or um resellers okay so there are users and creators of the commodity on a commercial level and based on that there's always going to be buying and selling on a commercial basis the net positions okay are the collective whole of all their total buys and all their total sales and what are they more net long or net short as a basis and what I do is I take that information that comes by way of the cftc and I plot this graph here by simply using a website and the information and just basically throwing in some lipstick and it helps me visually see what the commercials are doing in terms of hedging as you can see at the time of this week the commercials which is tracked by this line as it's below the zero line okay it's going to be marked red that's going to be bearish when it's above the zero line they're net long that would be bullish okay and back below the zero line which would be represented between 100 and K and 50k okay that that line I have drawn in there that blue line that represents the new zero line that would otherwise be viewed like a regular commitment shares report you don't need to see that as I'm going to teach later on but I've shown this in uh real quick short sessions throughout my time teaching but I'm going to give you the details about how to use it in great detail about how I break it down there's actual seasonal Tendencies to their hedging programs that you'll actually look at too and there's seasonal tendencies that go along with open interest declines as well and that's really neat information you need to know that to do Mega trades Mega trades are like huge big moves that take place every year there's like two or three of them that really explode you want to be focusing on markets that give you those types of conditions but I'm digressing so let me get back to a discussion with the euro dollar at the time of this week the euro dollar was making a higher high than that of in January but look at the commercials they were hedging against those rallies and they really went that short selling aggressively in the rally above the January High and the December high of 2016. so as we made a higher high in the euro the commercials are actually selling aggressively in that rally so what are we seeing here a seasonal tendency that's highly probable for lower Euro prices at the same time commercials are looking to sell short or they want to exceed prices going lower why because they're hedging against that rally they're selling into that rally why would they want to do that I don't know they're Banks they do it all the time but logically over a period of time looking at it you'll see that they kind of put the brakes on a market rally by selling aggressively into it and that caps the market as you've seen here this week so we had a blending of two things commercial Short Selling now if you look at a regular commitment Traders report you're not going to see that you're going to see them net long that's what screws everybody up even Larry Williams because they're looking at information because they're looking at Price through cot data from an archaic caveman approach now I'm not saying it can't be used efficiently and effectively in certain conditions like it's traditionally taught through Larry Williams and everybody else is used now but if it was just that easy everybody was making money right so why is it that commercials aren't on the first of everyone's list because nobody knows how to use it but you're learning how to do it now because you're in the click you're in the mentorship that teaches you everything about smart money so what we do is we use this graph okay that you're going to learn about in the commodity section of this teachings that's later on in the months I think it's in June but I'll teach you how to use the hedging program and actually look for seasonal Tendencies for when they would really be buying or selling certain times of the year and also their seasonal Tendencies of open interest but open interest is not that important here because we have two things Blended together and you really only need two things to couple for smart money you have the seasonal tendency just in other words there's a seasonal influence that usually see zero dollar and I don't know what it is I don't need to know seasonally historically euro dollar drops down in the second half of March going into April okay so we're looking for that seasonal tendency to take place not by itself but we're looking for technicals to support that idea well we can see here the commercials were heavily net selling into that rally we've seen last week leading into Monday's rally initially for this week and the euro dollar and then it topped and tanked going lower you can see right here that new high or high has been met with heavy net selling by the commercial Traders this is smart money shorting so now how do we go in and justify these ideas just because we have a chart that looks like it indicates that commercials are selling and we look at a seasonal tenants just because season Tendencies are suggesting higher or lower price it does not mean that it's going to happen there has to be something lining up technically to get in sync with the markets and seasonal tendency so it's not a seasonal tendency be all end-all it has to happen no seasonal tendency illustrates a probable condition or a probable outcome for the market Direction but without technicals aligning with that in a market environment that supports that idea the seasonal tendency will get you in trouble so we're looking at the dollar Index here we're going to frame out the market conditions from a macro standpoint and we're going to look at the next quarterly shift and we're going to look at how the markets should be moving and we're seeing here on a weekly chart for the dollar Index we have an old high and now this is whereas price is trading down to it for this uh this week we've traded down into an old weekly High which makes this a discount PD array and we move down into a daily time frame and we can actually see another level that is a old mitigation block and it comes in at 98.92 now if you look at that level you would obviously suspect that it's going to go to what we round up so it'd be 98.95 you can go to 98.90 if you want to because it's only like two Pips but generally the rules are we round up to the nearest five or zero level and then breaking it down into a hourly chart dollar Index we can see that this is again illustrating the potential weekly range and we're looking for price to reach up from this discount level we saw on the weekly chart we're looking for premium PDF PD arrays so we go through our Market looking at where liquidity pools are bearish order blocks fair value gaps mitigation blocks Breakers old highs and old lows that act as resistance as you can see here we have a few noted each one of these were draws on price and you can see they are all traded to with no problem with the exception of the fair value Gap I suspect next week maybe even on Sunday we'll probably see a gap up on Sunday's trading that remains to be seen but it certainly looks like it wants to do that and if it doesn't Gap up we'll look for it to expand through Sunday into Monday into that fair value Gap okay and getting a better look at the dollar Index this is an hourly chart what I have here is I have the equilibrium price point identified so anything above the equilibrium price point is going to be a premium and anything below it is going to be a discount so now what we're doing is we added the PD array Matrix in the form of our premium and discount ranges so now we can see graphically thinking like an algorithmic Trader so we're getting in sync with the algorithm ifta is going to pull and draw a price up to these levels logically to allow the bank traders to to put on trades or manage their in-house book so looking at what's going on in this chart we can see clearly that the market has been drawn back up to equilibrium so you're always going to look for discounts at least try to pull to equilibrium then it has to determine if it wants to go into premium or it could go back down deeper into a discount you never know that for sure but you need to blend time and price with the ifta data ranges looking back over the last 20 40 and 60 days also adding the PD array Matrix as we have here and we have all of the PD arrays noted that would be needed for this idea now we're going to look at the Euro pound because we have to have inter-market analysis supported as well so we've seen the dollar Index poised to go higher it's trading off of weekly discount PD array and we have all the premium PD arrays above us noted in the previous chart that would be drawing price higher so if we're looking for weak euro dollar prices we need to see if the Euro pound would support that idea as well and you can see obviously the European has tanked it went down to a very clear logical bullish order block on a four hour basis a series of downed candles sets the tone for that bullish order block so that is a discount PD array it trades right down to it at Friday's close but all throughout the week we saw the Euro pound be aggressively sold off so that's going to be week for euro dollar and strong for pound dollar okay so we're looking at the euro dollar now and we can see here the Monday we opened up with a gap well actually it's Sunday we opened up the Gap and traded higher throughout Monday and we traded up into the weekly bearish order block for the euro dollar and I'll leave you to look at your weekly bearish order block on your own platform but this is the only level that was missing from this week's discussion because I want to be able to have some meat for this teaching but uh weekly bearish order block was traded into on Monday and the question is how far into the weekly order block would you expect it to trade into Michael well we're going to that in in the last slide for this teaching but we're going to assume that you have studied the weekly templates that expect specific trading characteristics you know what days make a specific higher low of the week you know how the markets trade you know relative to the respective templates and then what manipulation do we expect by the market makers with that specific template well since I elected to use the bearish idea that euro dollar is going to go lower because the dollar Index was bullish okay or should have been bullish trading off of its weekly discount PD array couple that with we have seasonal tendency for euro dollar to decline we had commercials supporting lower prices with heavy selling into the rally we have the condition for lower expectation in pricing on your dollar that means we're going to be expecting either Monday Tuesday or Wednesday to be the high of the week so you always obviously start with the first day of the week which is going to be the Monday okay so price opens up on Sunday gaps up and it starts trading immediately right up on Monday so right away we have to assume that Monday is going to be the high of the week so what we do is we go through the procedures of potentially picking the high of the week now we don't try to go in here and and time that Weekly High we don't try to do that now you can over time do that yourself but initially you don't you want to teach yourself to trust these Concepts okay because it can go up on Tuesday and make a higher high that's why you have to give it a little bit of leeway now you can sell us a very small portion on Monday and then if Tuesday fails to make a higher high at least you have a small piece on the higher level but if it does go higher on Tuesday for Wednesday at least you're not going to be at a full position underwater as it makes a higher high on those later days in the week what we do is on the Monday we look for price to trade up and then have a retracement intraday so you can see the London session had a retracement and then an expansion all through New York what I did was I measured the swing using the Fib from the high formed in London down to the retracement low prior to the New York session rally and what I did was I measured That Swing intraday and it gave me the 109.09 level so I do is I used one pit below that and called it 109.08 because generally I'm usually one pip off and in this case I was one pip off still one pip short because I thought I was making a compensation for it but it actually went right to the level of 109.09 at least on Forex ltd's platform so by doing that what we end up doing is we can see a way of projecting the weekly High using the intraday stuff that we'll actually teach in April and you'll be able to combine a lot of other things with time of day and specific uh measurements that I use to to more or less nail down the power three or dare I say it weekly Judas swing so the initial rally here we saw on Monday was a false rally all that was was Heavy selling the engineered price higher built in a premium so they can sell it to the smart or lower intelligent crowd obviously the lower intelligent crowd smart money sells it to lesser informed money and that's what we saw on Monday so it takes us to the euro dollar we're in the four hour chart you can see the PD array in the discount Zone you can see that liquidity void that we identified here and at 106.50 level so using the 10650 level as our Baseline drawing up from that point and our projected high of the week at 109.08 which is what I called that's our range and then we can divide that in half get an equilibrium price point and having that we can now have a premium and discount PD array Matrix then you start breaking down your markets PD array for premium and discount we know that we have a liquidity void in the lower end of the discount range so that's what we're aiming for that's what we are aiming for we came out of a premium Market at 109.08 and as the market traded lower each one of the respective PD arrays gaps liquidity pools old highs to sell into bearish order blocks all those things as the market slid lower they were all contributing factors as we mentioned throughout the analysis this week through tweets and in video production and on the daily chart indexes blending all these things together all these things that I taught conceptually the way you get to the results that you saw this week is you have to use them you have to practice with them there's not going to be a clear cut this is how you do it every single time there's going to be potential decisions that you're gonna have to make you might think that it's going to be the high of the week on Monday and you sell short and then Tuesday in London or New York it runs up here and blows that high out are you going to stick with the idea and expect lower prices still or are you going to be whipsauled and thinking okay I was wrong and they go long that's going to be a demon for you to wrestle with so you have to come to a conclusion of what you want to do for the week and come hell or high water stick to that until it no longer makes sense and that happens mid week and you learned in the previous lesson that there's many times a weekly reversal so you always have a potential to mess it up this is what makes it difficult but it's so easy to do how's that for an oxymoron the point is is in this teaching we have a way of looking at Price blending Concepts together using experience obviously okay but over time seeing it studying in hindsight you can look at 10 15 20 years worth of data and get to these outcomes okay through study and build yourself a a library mentally with past experiences using the information you don't need to have every little thing down to an hourly chart you don't need that you can see the outcome based on a daily chart you can see it so I'm going to counsel you to use this as an example of how we can take the information blend it together and then come up with the nearest thing to Perfection you're going to ever see in market analysis being one pip off from the high of the week and only five Pips off the low of the week but in most platforms 106.50 was hit with real-time data not demo and the high of the week was uh you know it was called and the lower leak was called so I'll leave it up to you to determine whether or not this is something that leads you to more proficiency as a Trader or does it create new barriers for your learning I think that if you go through the concepts and especially when you finish the mentorship you want to go back through all the lessons again listen to all that boring stuff I talked about in January go back through all the lessons in September October November and December and use all that information I helped pull all the free tutorials together back then some of you were complaining about that now you're seeing the fruits of having done that and if you haven't watched the free tutorials more than one time at the end of this mentorship you want to do that all over again okay so that way it kind of completes your whole learning and by then you have everything you ever need to know you'll know procedurally what you need to do and yes it requires a lot of work it's going to require you to think it's going to require you to come to the decision and it's not going to be black and white it's not going to be this or that initially but when we get to August there's a specific procedure that you go through from the top down okay and it leads you to specific decision points that tells you okay right now I think this is what I should be doing regardless of what discipline or Trader you're going to be it starts from the higher time frame position Traders mindset as you would do with one shot one kill and you reduce it down and you reduce it down to swing trading and you reduce it down to short-term trading you need to reduce it down to day trading so you can get that real low risk real tight precision and if you really want to get insane about it you can use the scalping ideas and get insane with 10 pip stops but it's not necessary you don't need that but the point is it's there it's made available to you so the police has been insightful to you and it helps fill in the gaps with the short-term trading that I taught in my free tutorials and it gives you all the elements to how I trade ICT one shot one kill