The Ultimate Swing Trading Masterclass | Ft Hiren Gabani | MastersInOne | EP - 63

[Music] When I started in 2019, I directly started with options trading. It was my biggest mistake. If you want to make a system, you will have to give 2-3 years properly to the system. As long as there is momentum, I will stay. As soon as the momentum ends, I am out. This is my style. Now someone will say that after your exit, it moved 1000%. That doesn't matter to me. What matters to me is that I have to catch small swings in the market. And where is everything? On volumes. The market is seasonal. The same money is not going to be made for 12 months. Yes. So the time comes when you become aggressive. The time comes when you become defensive. The money will be over. But the opportunity will not be over. Hello friends, I am Vijay Thakkar. And I welcome you all to our new episode of 'Masters in One' podcast. Today's guest is Mr. Hiren. And Mr. Hiren is a full-time swing trader. Mr. Hiren started his swing trading journey in 2019. And in today's video, Mr. Hiren has discussed his swing trading strategy. What is this swing trading strategy? You must have heard the name of VCP(Volatility Contraction Pattern) Where you take swing trade for low risk and high reward. So he has explained this strategy completely. And do you know why I liked today's video the most? Because here Mr. Hiren has talked about this topic. When is it good to do swing trading and when is it bad? You must have noticed that sometimes the market is so good. That whatever trade you take, you get a good reward for it. But sometimes the market scenario is such that no matter how good the trade is, the result is bad. So here he has explained very well that when we should do swing trading. And when we should not do swing trading. Which setup should be taken properly? And this video may be a little big. Because here he has explained his strategy in the beginning. He has discussed different types of swing trading setups. And he has shared many examples. And in the last, he has explained how to take trade during swing trading. He has told about trade management. So these are the things in today's podcast. So I will request you to watch this podcast only if you have a good time. Otherwise, you can watch it in 1.5 speed. But one thing I can tell you with certainty. That whoever will watch today's podcast will get a proper knowledge of swing trading. In a way, you can say that this is a webinar of swing trading. Or it is going to be a master class for you. So let's go to our today's podcast. And learn from Hiren that how to take a low risk swing trading setup. How to find it? And yes, I just want to request you. If you like our today's podcast. Then do like and share. And if you are new to our channel. Then do subscribe. Welcome sir. Welcome to our podcast. Thank you Vijay Bhai for giving me this chance. No, thank you to you sir for coming. And to share your method with our audience. So sir, I will tell you how I met Hiren. We have a friend. Or you can say that he was my student earlier. Now he has become my friend. Kalpesh ji. He gave me a reference. Sir, you make a video with Hiren. So I said that okay I will make a video with Hiren. And then I tried to contact him. And that's how we talked. Yes. So sir, you tell me that how did you start your journey in the stock market? And what do you do now? And from where did all this start? See, I started in 2019 when I was in college. Then my father was doing commodity trading. So I used to see how he used to buy and sell. He didn't used to see the chart pattern. It used to happen on his intuition. That I feel that the market will do this. But he used to call the broker. That buy so many lots of this. Buy so many lots of gold. So I used to see what is the gold chart. So from there I started my trading journey. That I started seeing charts. My father does not use technicals. But I started using technicals. Then what is the chart pattern? Cup and Handle. What is Support and Resistance? Moving Averages. I learned everything from there. But I felt that when I started in 2019. So I started in option trading. Which was my biggest mistake. I had no idea about options. And I started directly. So I think in a short time I had a loss of Rs. 80,000. So after the loss of Rs. 80,000. I was in complete depression. Because I just graduated from college And I had started a job. But I did not have much confidence there. That I will do the job till the last time. That I will take ahead from here. So my father said join the family business. So in my father's company. I joined as a salary person. My 45,000 salary was set. In my father's company. What did your father do? My father has a construction business. In L&T. So there I started doing the billing process. And on the side I started learning technicals. Stock market. So after the loss of 80,000. I stopped trading for 3-5 months. Then COVID came. So in COVID everyone was sitting at home for free. My friend was doing intraday at that time. So I also started doing intraday. That intraday in cash. See I was like that I do not want to lose more money from here. So I started intraday in cash. I know that there is not much drawdown in cash. Which is in options and futures. So I was not getting any such trigger in cash. So I tried everything. Like all the strategies. I kept watching videos on YouTube all day. Best video for swing trading. Best video for intraday. Nothing was working. Then by doing this. I also stopped intraday. In 2021 when I was scrolling on Twitter. There is a trader Manas Arora. I saw his profile. He used to do trading in cash. That too swing trading. No positional, no long term. No F&O. So I found it interesting. Why did I find it interesting? Because I saw, when he buys. Either there is a big move. Or in 1-2 days there is a stop loss. Or in 5 days there is a stop loss. So I felt that. This game is about timing. How does he time? He buys the stock. The stocks moves 20-40%. Or in 2-3 days. His stop loss gets hit. So I understood. There is a potential in cash trading. If you know how to do timing. So he recommended me a book. Trade like a stock market wizard. By Mark Minervini. This is where the trading journey starts. I read that book. It is very good. There is everything. As a beginner. Or as an advanced trader whoever wants this book. There is everything. From basic. Like what is a stock market. There isn't explained support or resistance. About candlestick etc all these isn't explained in it. But there, how to become a trader is explained. How to use fundamentals. Or how to swing. Like what I said it's a game of timing. How to time the stock. How to manage risk. What to do in bad time. How to be aggressive in good time. It is a one stop solution. That book is like that. I found it interesting. I read it 3-4 times. Then I studied Manas Bhai's Trade From 2018 to 2021. His strategy has shifted. He went to tight SL. But there he used to use 8% stop loss. I studied that. From 2018 to 2021. All charts, entry and exit. I got an idea. How to move forward from here. Then I. In 2021-2022. I learned all this. In 2021. I added Rs. 22,000 in my account. I had only this much in account. My plan wasn't to make 2 crore, 1 crore or 20 lakhs from 22,000. My plan was. Let's build a skill. If I get the skill. Then there is money in the market, I'll definitely get it. I was getting a good salary. I was saving there. I thought. I will put salary money. When I get the skill. In 2021, beginner luck in starting I got a good profit for 2-3 months. I got Confidence. Then in July 2021. I did a good loss in the market. Good means, it had 5-7% drawdown. But it was too much for me, according to me. Because the book I read of Mark Minervini. It was written there. If drawdown goes above 10%. Loss will work against you. Then it takes a lot of time to recover. My 12-13 back to back SL was hit. I understood. The market will not be good every month. When the downtrend was in July 2021. I used to buy in the downtrend daily The breakout isn't working there. I also learned. When to sit out of trade. After that. Negative month came. I did not drawdown above 5% after that. I know. This is my trigger point. If this hits. I will stop trading. Okay. So after 2021, in 22, I started putting money with full force. Because I had gained confidence in the system. I used to make some mistakes there too. But I decided that I have to take 5-7% maximum drawdown and not above that of the account. Either stop trading or take a small risk. I mean reduce my size. In 2022, I made a good profit. In 2023, I made a return of 145%. And in 2024, I made a return of 68%. And in 2025, it's going well. This year too. I got all the good trades like RPower etc. But from there, my profitable journey started till here. I give all the credit to Manas Bhai and Mark Minervini. Because of the help they gave — I mean, look It's important to get the right person at the right time. Many people try for 15 years but can't stay on the same system. Because they don't get the right guidance. So Manas Bhai and Mark Minervini showed me the right guidance. After that, I worked very hard. I studied all the winners from 2013 to 2025. I made their database. How the winners move. I saw everything. After that, I started applying this. So till now, this is my profitable journey after 2022. Good. Sir, you told us that you started in 2019. Then you got a loss. Then you learned. Yes. In today's time, which method do you follow? And what is your strategy? If you can explain it to us. My strategy is simple. Swing trading. There are many strategies in the market. If you see, there are different trading styles. Scalping. Intraday. Swing trading. Positional trading. Investing. These are the methods. Now, how do I decide that I will do this? First, look at your lifestyle. If you are a working person, you don't have time to see the market. Or you have half an hour to see the market in the live market. Then you can't do scalping and intraday. You have to experience it in the live market. And you have to execute it. So I decided this. Secondly, why did I start swing trading? Because I want freedom in life. I don't want to sit at 9 o'clock and see the market till 3.30. This is not my psychology. Genuinely. So what did I do? I will make a system where my screen time is very less. I have to take very few decisions in the live market. I have to make a swing trading system. So what did I do? I started swing trading. I also did positional trading in 2021-2022. But there was a problem. There was a lot of dead time. You buy a stock with a 15% stop loss. It moves for 30-40%. After that, the stock kept consolidating for 4-5 months. I didn't even have to do this. I will buy it. I want the move in the stock. So what did I start? Swing trading. Okay. This sets with my psychology. This system sets with my lifestyle. That's why I chose it. I am not saying that the one who is doing intraday should stop trading. But if it sets with your psychology and mindset, then you can do that too. Money is in every system. But you have to stick to one thing. Okay. See, your quote. Master in one. What do people do? Suppose someone started following your style. If it goes bad for 1-2 months, then what will they do? See, it is written here. Choose one strategy. Means they choose one strategy. After that, what do they do? They start working in a good market. So what does he think? I am the God of the market. I know everything. Correct. Then what happens? Strategy starts underperforming. One time this happens. After that, it doesn't work. See, the market doesn't run in uptrend, whole year. There are consoliadation phases in between. Or corrections come in the market. So every time your strategy is not going to run the same. So what do they do here? As soon as the strategy starts underperforming, what do they do? They shift. That let's try someone else strategy. Now let's do this. What do they do? Now they start questioning their strategy. They start questioning their strategy. Then, the system that used to give good results, is not giving good results now. The one that was giving in the beginning. So what do they do? They start looking for new strategies. New strategies. Again, they didn't get it. They will keep doing the same thing. Now listen, someone has been in the market for 15-15 years. Still, there is no system. What do they do? They jump the system. In a bad time. So I also learned that until you don't know the system in and out. Like, when does it work? When will it stop working? Like, take the breakout system itself No matter how many breakouts you try in the bear market, they are not going to work. Correct. So if you go away from that, then what happens in a good time? If you want to make a system, then you have to give 2-3 years to the proper system. Correct. If you don't give 2-3 years, then you don't know when it will underperform and when it will do well. Right. So what did I do? What is style drift? It's a slow poison. Even if you do it for 15-20 years, you won't have any solution. So what is it? Master in one. If I have caught swing, then I will swing. I don't do anything else. I just swing. Where is my focus? Make good money in a good market. Bad market is coming. It's a choppy market. It's a down-trending market. Sit down, peacfully. Drawdown is happening. Don't trade. Simple. So what is it? Master in one. Then let's move on to swing trading. See, I am talking about the Indian context. The moves of the US market are very different from our market. You can't apply the same strategy here. There you see 100% moves in a day. Because there are no circuit limits there. But what happens in the context of the Indian market? Suppose a base is being made here. As soon as the stock comes out of it, I have studied the average winner till now. What did I study? They give 25-40% moves. That stock. What happens after that? It goes dead, comes in consolidation phase. What do they do? They start making the base. It took 2-3 months. 4 months. They start making the base of the stock. Correct. So what did I decide? As long as there is momentum, I will stay. As soon as the momentum ends, I am out. I don't want to get stuck in this phase. In the swing. Even if that stock moves 1000% after my exit. What is my plan? I have to catch the move of this much percentage. Sometimes I get more. How do we get it? We will discuss it later. But the movement of Indian market stocks is like this. I am talking about small, mid cap stocks. Here I am not talking about large cap. Large cap doesn't move that fast. Correct. As small, mid caps moves. So I have studied small, mid cap stocks. They move this much. After that, they will either consolidate or fold. Okay. For example, you bought RVNL as a swing trade. Now you have a lot of confidence that it will do well. This stock. You bought this stock with 30% size. Okay. Now your 4 months have been wasted in this stock. After giving one move. Now you understand. The account has a size of 30%. It is an account of 10 lakhs. You have put 3 lakhs in it. Now it stays like this for 4-5 months. Your 3 lakh, 30% account is lying like this. You know that other stocks are giving break out. But you are not able to shift this money there. So what did I decide? How long will I keep it? As long as there is momentum. As soon as the momentum ends, I am out. After that, if it gives me a chance to enter, then I will buy. Rest, I will not touch that stock. Okay. This is my style. Now someone will say that after your exit, it moved 1000%. That doesn't matter to me. What matters to me is that I have to catch small swings of the market. So what does consolidation phase mean? Dead time. The more the dead time, the less trade you will be able to do. Because your money is getting blocked. So what was my style of swing trading? I have to catch the move of 25-40%. I will stick there. After that, whatever the stock does, whether it makes a base of 1 month or 6 months, it doesn't matter to me. Okay. So what is the goal? The goal is to avoid dead time and keep on turning your edge. Means churning. That I need more number of traders in the market. Only then I will be able to make a lot of money. So what did I do here? I have to do as less dead time as possible. So I chose a moving average. That I will keep trailing with this as long as the stock is in momentum. As soon as it comes below this, we are out. We will see later how to do it. Okay. Then what? Time is money. Okay. If my account stays here for 4 months here. It is useless. According to my style. Okay. No matter how much conviction I have in the stock of railways or defense. But in between, I don't want dead time. Sometimes even a stock can take 4 months, 10 months or even a year to make a move. Correct. So in the bull market, time is money. Why? Because in a bull market, you will run out of money. Yes. But the opportunity won't end. Because if you are exiting a stock, there is a two-stock ready out there. To break out in the bull market. So what was my plan? That I have to reduce dead time. So what will I do? I will do swing trading. That I am not doing one trade in life. I am doing a lot of trades. 100 200. There is a calculator of Mark Minervini. RBF calculator. If you see this. I am also explaining to you. Why I want less dead time. Okay. For example. Here I have written dollar. Your account is of 5 lakhs. Okay. I have to put 20% size in every stock. I have fixed this. And what is my desired return? 100%. I want to earn in a year. Okay. This is fixed. Then what is the average gain? 20%. And average loss is 5%. What is my risk reward? 1:4. Okay. I am exiting here in 1:4. I am talking about the average. And my accuracy is 35%. That's it. Okay. I am talking about bull market, it is going to be more than this but I have put a condition here. Now I have to get 100% return. How many trades do I need in a year? 133 stocks. If I can take 133 trades, my system will give me then only I will be able to achieve this. Correct. So you should know that if my big amount is invested in stocks for 6 months then I won't get this trade. There is no chance of taking. There is no chance. Then I will say that I want to earn triple digit return this year. My system is such that there is a lot of dead time. Or I am getting 50 trades in a year. So I won't be able to do this triple digit return. Correct. So I believe that whatever system you use, you have to know in and out of it that what is my expectation from the market. If your expectation is to get 30% return from the market in a year then I will do 30%. How many trades do I need? 40 trades only. So if my system is giving me 40 trades then it will work. Then I will do it. But see in a bull market, you should have a goal of doing a double account. Because bull market will not be there for a lifetime. In between, there are 1-1.5 years of dead phase in the market. Correct. There are corrections. So whenever a good market is going on then what do I have to do? I have to make money with full force. So my system gives me 150-200 trades every year in a bull market. So will I be able to achieve which I did in 2023. So this is the reality of my system that I should know? Okay. So what is my goal? So we understood this. Now see timing is everything. There is nothing better than timing in the market. Whether it is a correction phase or a bull market or we talk about stocks. We should know how to time stock. How? For example, people say that there is no money in cash. There is no move. I buy it. I am explaining you why there is no move. Let's give an example of Rpower. So this is my personal trade. Now for example, I bought this stock here in euphoria. Okay. I will mark it here. Okay. Now what did this stock do? From October 2024 to May 2025. This stock was dead for almost 7-8 months. See, the one who bought here also saw big losses at this time. Then what? The it was a whole time pass. Because what did they see in this stock? They saw it going down by 35-40%. They must have panicked seeing this. A lot happened. But where did I buy? I bought this stock here. Now see, now you understand. The one who bought here also made the same money. 50%. I bought it. What did I make? I also made the same money. 60%. Both made the same money. But where is the difference? In the timing. How did they time that stock? I timed it here. In a short period of time, I exited it. By taking momentum. Sorry, I am interrupting you. But the question is that people bought there for any reason. But why did you buy here? What was the reason that you bought here? See, I have a setup. I call it EP setup. Okay. Episodic Pivot. Pradeep Bonde of US market uses this. Episodic Pivot. What happens here? Earnings comes in the stock. Or then some positive news comes. And the stock opens in gap up. After that, what do I do? Here comes the earnings of R-Power. Earnings were very good in the stock. There were positive earnings in the stock. I think this company was pivoting in the sector of renewable energy. R-Power is still doing it. Here comes the earnings. Then what do I do? I don't buy on the same day of earnings. I buy it on a delayed reaction. After earnings, even if I get the trade after 15 days. That will work. This was the closing of the stock. Here comes the earnings and it opened gap up and moves that side a bit. After that, if I get the pullback trade here. I track it. Where the pullback should be, that also matters. If it is in the down trend, then it will not work. Because the supply is too much. But if it is in the structure. For example, a structure is being made in a stock. And you are getting it here. That thing. That works very well. Because the stock has absorbed the entire supply. By making the base. Correct. So we see R-Power. It was in the structure. See. This was a structure R-Power. The stock has made the entire base. Earnings came. There was no setup till here. Now I have to wait for the pullback in the stock. Okay. It is going up. There is nothing. Now see. It is pulling back. Near 10. Okay. What are the moving averages? This is 10 EMA. This is 20. This is 50. And this is 200 EMA. Okay. See, I generally use 10, 20. Because I am a momentum trader. Okay. I will show you how the stock works near 10, 20. Okay. And why do I use 200 EMA? I have an idea whether this stock is in stage 2 or not. Which is the concept of Mark Minervini's stage 2 stock. As soon as 200 EMA starts turning from here. Either 200 EMA is in uptrend Look at it. Yes. So this is stage 2. It means the stock is in momentum. I have to catch such stock. The stock that has fallen so much. I don't buy the stock here. Thinking momentum will come. Okay. So what do I do? A base is made. Suppose it has come out from here. And the momentum has been established. I track that stock. So this setup that I told you. It was an EP setup. The stock came near 10. It is closing. It is tightening. Look. 3 day tight close. I use this too. What does this show? The activity of the buyer and seller is coming at the same price and ending. From last 3 days. Okay. So this is tight closing and low volume days. It was a perfect trigger for me. Earnings were also there. Everything was good. I bought it on this day. Okay. Now how I managed it. We will see later. Okay. I was talking about timing. I bought here. Someone bought here. Both made the same money. So this is the game of timing. Because I don't want to stay in the stock for 6-8 months. So why can't people make money? Because they buy in euphoria. Where the move has already come. Which I don't do. What is for me? After one move, there is a silent phase of the stock. If I get entry in it, then only I buy. If it has moved for 3-4 days. I don't track or buy that stock. Okay. Scanner away. Which scanner do I use? Look. 3 scanners are my main. Which I use. Monthly 20% gainer. Why do I use it now that also matters. 20% gainer means what do I have to track here? The flags that are being made in the market. Okay. Which stock has moved 20% in a month. The scanner will give me that stock. Then what? 3 monthly 30% gainer. Which base is this? Medium term basis. Like 3-6 months basis. Okay. That a move has come. After that, the stock has been consolidating like this for 3-4 months. If I want to track it, it will come here. And the last scanner is stocks within 25% range. From 52 week high range. What is this? In this stock, the supply will be very less. Because the stock is near high. So above 52 week high, do you see or? No, in its range. This stock should be in the range of 25%. So what does it show here? That the supply has already been absorbed in the stock. Downtrending stock will not be shown here. And what is the condition in all? Stock should have 200 EMA. Okay. So I will get this. What did I do? Rpower is also here. It is also there in 20% gainer. And I am also getting it in 30% gainer. Yes. So I can't always run all three scanners separately. And I have to see R power in all three scanners. So what did I do? I combined all three. If any of the three conditions are fulfilled here, then the scanner will give me the stock. Like this, I have made a combined winner. What did I do? Stock passes any of the below filter. I put all three conditions. 20% gainer, 30% gainer, and stocks within the range of 52 week high to 25%. Correct. So what did I do? If I see any of these stocks within one, then I will get it here. And see, I have kept the criteria very basic, I haven't added more here. What do people do? Tightness of 2 days should be of 2%. Okay. If I am a tightness trader, then what do people do? Tightness of 5 days will be within 5%, then only I will get the stock. Okay. The reason why I don't do this. If I want, how many stocks are visible now? 500 stocks. 500 almost. Okay. I could have brought to 100. By putting the tightness criteria. Tightness of 3 days, 4 days. Why don't I do this? Because look, let's say I get 100 stocks, which are tight. What I don't know is, what is happening in those 400 stocks? If there are breakouts, are they sustaining or not? How will I get that idea? So what do I do? I scan the whole universe, this momentum one. Correct. I will get the idea, that breakouts have failed today. How will I know that? When I will see the breakout failure stocks, if a stock has fallen 8%, then it will not come in the scanner. In the tightness scanner. Okay. So what do I do? I scan the whole universe. In the starting phase, it used to take me 3-4 hours. In 2021. Now it takes me 1 hour. Because my eyes have trained that much. Now I know where to stop. In the stock. Okay. So we talked about the scanner. And I manually add the IPOs. I have a list, a tracking list. Whatever new IPOs are coming, I manually add it in it. Okay. Assume that it has been 4 days, the IPO has come. So I manually add it in it. The stock in which 200 EMA has come Yes. The stock which has 200 EMA in it, so what I will do is I will exit it here. So it will come in your scanner. Yes, it will come in it. So here it shouldn't happen that the bull market is over and 500 stocks have come in 2-3 years of IPO. So about 30, 40, 50, whatever stocks are coming here. How many stocks? 60 stocks are coming, I have to track that IPO which is recent. Rest will come in those scanners. Correct. So we have talked about the scanners. Now let's talk about the concept, VCP. Which is one of Mark Minervini's book. What happens in this, see there is price contraction and volume contraction. This is very basic. You won't see this precisely but there is a reason behind this. That why this happens. What is the meaning of VCP here? The first rule is that the stock should be in uptrend. What is the biggest mistake people make? They buy VCP at any location. Like some stock is in downtrend. I have seen something like this here. Yes. What will they do? They will say VCP is formed here let's buy it. Mark Minervini's first criteria is up trending stock. What I have to do in that is to track VCP. Okay. Because there should be prior uptrend. This shows the buyers' urgency. That the buyers are already present. This is happening after that. Let me show you in R-Power. R-Power was an up-trending stock. Yes. See. I am not buying R-Power here in downtrend. I am buying R-Power after its uptrend is established. So what is the first rule of VCP? There should be prior uptrend. What happens after that? Selling pressure is absorbed in every contraction. How? Earlier there was a 15% fall in the stock. Then the buyer came again. Then it fell 7-8%. Then the buyer came again. Then it fell 3%. What do we see here? The fall in price is contracting in every contraction. Correct. There comes a time when the stock stops falling. What happens there? There is no supply in the stock. Simple. If there is no supply in the stock, then what will it do even a small demand will blast the stock. Simple. This is basic. You won't see these patterns precisely. Textbook patterns. But you can make your setup around this. On supply and demand. Okay. What is another concept of Mark Minervini? Dryness in volume. What should be the supply in every contraction? It should be dry. If you see this too. This the last contraction made was the volume dry here? The indicator here which is showing earnings, can you hide that indicator here for a minute. Okay. Then tell me why do you apply this? Okay. Now I can see the volume. What do we see here? There is a leg. What is happening in the right side of the base? Volume is getting dry. This is volume dryness. If the volume is increasing here, then that stock is of no use to me. Which candlestick are you looking at? This is not a normal candle. This is a bar chart. I track the closing in this. If you go to the settings here. For example. Here. HLC bars. If I want a high low closed bar, then it will look like this. Where it opens and where it closes. But what do I use? Where is the closing? To see the tightness. Where is the stock closing? So what am I using here? I switching off the High, low and close. So you can only see the closing. Yes, I can see the closing. I can see the tightness here. From 3 days, the stock is lying dead. Means you can see high, low and closing. Yes. Okay. What is happening to volume? It is getting dry. If you take any big winner. Let's take an example. This thing will be clearer to you. I bought this stock in 2022. This stock. Looking at the VCP. Okay. Let's understand this now. What is the first thing? Prior uptrend. Okay. Correct. So we saw here. There should be a prior uptrend. What is written after that? Supply dry's at every point. And we track this. For example. See, I am drawing it here and showing. How much supply came the first time? Till here. The buyer came again. In the stock. Then what happened to the supply? It came up to here. Correct. Then the buyer came again. What is happening now? Supply has become completely less. See, if I shift it here. This thing. So what do you see? Price contraction is happening. Can you see? How is the price contracting here? Correct. So what does this show? Selling is being absorbed. The second thing we drew here is that there should be contraction in volume too. If we look at this here. Look at this. What is happening to volume? Dry. This also shows that. The seller is getting less in the stock. So at one time. There will be a small demand. What will it do to the stock? It will blast. Correct. See this. So what is our game? Buy at such a location. Where the SL is tight. And the reward is high. This is the game of timing. How much? This is a 13 R trade. Within 10-12 days. In this stock. So in this. Sorry, I am asking you again. So in this your entry. Your stop loss. Target. How do you decide? Ok. I will explain to you how to do it. Now we are just looking at the pattern. Means now we are understanding the setup. About which setup you are looking at. What is the supply demand in the market. Let's understand that first. This is clear. This is the VCP concept. Correct. See one more thing. This is not a pattern. You will see vey less precisely. But this is a characteristic of the market. That you will not see a perfect pattern in the market. Correct. Which I just showed you. But according to this. You can make any setup. According to the supply and demand. Ok. Then I read a book "Wyckoff king" Let's understand the foundation of Wyckoff first. Which book was it? Sorry. Technical Analyst by Wyckoff Ok. There was a book by Richard D. Wyckoff. I read that. Here a very good thing was told. Domination. That he told like this. That the market runs on action and reaction. Ok. What do I see here? Strong action by buyers. Ok. Ok. That there is an uptrend. Means the buyers are strong here. After that how the reaction comes. That matters a lot. Ok. In my pullback setup. Today we will discuss. There is a base on this. Ok. That I have learned from this. How not to buy the stock. How to focus on the stock. I have learned from this. It seems very basic. See you read any book. You need one or two ideas from that book. Yes. Which can change your life. Ok. So what idea did I get? That I used to do something like this before. That. It is an uptrend. Now this stock fell here. And moving average is coming here. So what I used to think. Let's buy. Ok. Thinking pullback is coming. Then I saw that. Now this stock moves from here. Then it comes down. Why did it come? So what is the concept here? Action. Means this action came. Of bulls. Then how does the reaction come? Like this. So who is dominating here? Buyer is doing. Means the reaction should be small. Yes. Same thing. If you do short also. Which I do in bear market. Shorts. So what I do. This strong selling. After that. How does the buyer's action come? Reaction. Here. Means if it comes like this. Then whose domination is it? Seller. So what will I do? I will short the stock. Correct. I have a setup according to this. In shorting also. Which I trade in the starting of the bear market. 2-3 months. 4 months. Where the momentum is very fast in the selling side. So I do. Ok. So my setup. Most of my setup. Is based on this. Like Mark Minervini also said. What is needed first? Prior uptrend. After that selling should be less. So this is also showing the same thing. Correct. Same thing in both the books. That selling is being absorbed. Correct. So whose domination is it? I have to buy in that direction. Same thing in selling also. Domination is of the seller. So I have to sell the stock in its direction. Ok. We understood this. Yes. Then see here. What do people do? Telling pattern, pattern and trade anywhere. Yes. At any location. Yes. That drawing cup and handle here. I have seen. People do it here. This is the cup and handle. Traded the stock, then stock goes up and comes down. Then they say. Nothing is working. Yes. See. Cup and handle is a continuation pattern. Yes. It should be like this. Then only it works. Correct. Prior uptrend is needed in cup and handle. So if you blindly follow any setup or pattern. Then also money is not going to be made. Here. The why chances of failing is there in this stock? Because supply is huge. It's this huge. If you buy here than here there is no supply in the stock. That stock works perfectly. The placement of stock is important. Means context where it is being formed. Mark Minervini said one thing in the book Market wizard that is context. That if you use any pattern without context it will never work. Okay. Firstly you have to understand the context that where that pattern is being formed. Okay. This is also one thing. See I'm just showing you an example, I have seen many thing failing in this market. People are saying they want to understand pattern in down trending stock For example, there was a stock HLE Glascoat A strong earning reaction came it opened gap up, a flag was formed here. Okay? We were thinking this stock will perform nicely. Good volume is there, everything seems good. Correct. And as you buy the stock It went up Again SL is hit. Why this happen in stock? Because you not understanding the context. See. Yes. Where is it being formed? It is formed in the downtrend. Yes, and if the same thing is formed here, I'll show in live Here also there is a strong leg. Here also there is a flag. Can you see? Here also there is a flag. Why did it work? Because its background was positive. Yes, its previous move was up move. Correct. Look at the volume, it got dry. Means all the characteristics matched here. Yes. But you are saying that such characteristics can also match in downtrend. Yes. But we have to avoid that. Yes. Correct. That's why Mark Minervini brought this concept of stage 2 stock. That you will never come here to trade this stock. Correct. If you know what stage 2 stock is, there is a lot of detailed study of stage 2 in his book. Examples are also given there. So I will be saved from here for trading like this. Correct. People say that there is no use of books. Experience in the live market. I have taken 50-100 such SL. After that I got an idea that I have to trade this stage 2 stock. It is better if someone has 40 years of experience. He told you that don't do this trade. Then you checked that it doesn't work. So your learning was reduced by 1 year. According to the setup. Correct. That's why I read books and watch videos. Because we learn from experience. Like you buy momentum. You never buy downtrending stock. That it will move tomorrow. So your experience was that you have to trade momentum. Correct. So we stopped doing this. People buy downtrending stock because it is cheaper. Which we don't do. Here we saw that we don't have to blindly follow anything. Where pattern is being formed? Both cases are shown here. Base formation breakout in downtrend and base formation breakout in uptrend. Results of both are very different. If you put it in 100-500 stocks, you will get an idea. Here success rate is very less. Because there is supply. Let's talk about setups. What do I trade? I trade so many setups. Be it bull market or bear market. I trade big base and continuation base. Means 3-6 months of medium term basis. Then I also trade flags. What did I do before? I used to trade big base in 2021. Okay. Then I saw that momentum comes once in stock. Then I used to wait for 50. That stock will come near 50 and then I will buy. Then I got to know that the stock doesn't come near 50 and moves to the upper side. So what did I start? Now we will trade flags also. Because in momentum, like we saw HLE glascoat. Now I used to wait here that it will come near 50. Then I will trade this stock. Till then I will not touch it. So it didn't come near 50. See it moved from here. If I don't want to miss, then what should I do? I have to hold momentum also in stock. And in bull market, you will see many such stocks that move in momentum. Okay. So there I don't want time pass. So what do I do? I bought up trending stock in flag, big base. If that stock is coming out of big base, then you can run that stock till multi month also. Okay. Because if base is breaking out for 5-7 years, then that stock is not going to come down in a month. So what can you do there? You can go multi month also. We will see that also. Okay. Then there is EP which I explained to you. There are gap ups due to earnings. We will see this 1-2 examples also. Of my recent trade. Then there is pullback which I am going to explain today. There is a setup of pullback. Then there are IPOs which I told you that I track manually. And there are shakeouts. This is my setup. And I trade according to this. Outside this, I don't have any setup like reversal, buy before breakout. No setup. Intraday, no intraday, no F&O, nothing. Only swing trade in this type of setup. Simple. Okay. Outside this, I don't trade. And you will never see me doing anything. Okay. Now let's understand that today's main thing is pullback setup. You will see a lot of pullbacks in bull market. And what mistakes do people do in pullbacks? They have no idea how to buy a pullback. Or they have no idea how to buy in a stock. They see a pullback near 10-20, they buy it. Then they come to know that the stock didn't run for a month. What is better than this? You have to understand this from the study of the winner. How does a pullback happen? Look, I don't say anything without data. For example, if we see here. I have made a notion. Okay. I have a study of all the big movers of the past. Okay. For example, this is the winner of 2021. Okay. I have data. How does that stock move? Big mover. For example, if any stock moves big. Let's say a R- Power did it. Then we track how it moved. Did it make a trading location or not? What did I do? From 2013, I studied the winner of every year. Okay. After that, I decided something. Look here, it is year wise. Assume it is 2017. All the big winners of 2017 are here. So I have written everything here. What was the setup? For how many days did I hold it? Although I was not in the market in 2017. But I have an idea that the same move was happening in 2017. We will see. Pullbacks of 2017 and 2025, 2023. You will feel that the same thing is happening in the market. Okay. Because human psychology never changes. And the market runs on supply and demand. So it will never change. Mark Minervini had asked someone. Someone had asked Mark Minervini. What will you do if VCP stops working tomorrow? He said that this is the psychology of supply and demand in the market. It will never stop. Okay. It used to run in 1990. The same thing will run now in 2025 and 2050. The market works on people's emotions. Fear greed emotions. Which will never change. So VCP will never stop working. No matter how many years pass from here. Okay. But it works according to the market condition. If I say that no matter how much you try in the bear market, it does not work. In a good market, free flow works. 100% moves come in 5-7 days in the stock. Okay. So this is the study. Then I also saw that the day the stock broke out. What was the index there? It was above 10, above 20. I also decided that. Studied. So what did I see? Whoever becomes the winner. Majority of the winners. Suppose there are 50 stocks here. So when did the majority of the winners break out? When the index was above 10. So I got an idea. Where do I not have to play now? Will I play on this day? I will not do anything. It is below 10 that is green line. I will not do it on this day also. If you see, this bear market works very well. See, majority of times the index is below 10. So you are safe here. I am sitting outside. You are watching this study from outside. Okay. So I saw that the winners do something like this. They give big moves above 10. Yes. Whether it is a good market or a bad market. So what did I decide? That I was sitting outside in this whole market. The index has not gone above 10. It has gone only for 1 or 2 days. Till now. So no break out was working here. So I sat outside and got aggressive from here. From this time. I got R power here. In this, your 10 is of green color. Yes. 20 is of yellow color. Yes. This is 50. And blue is 50. And the red color is 200. Yes. Okay. So you have made a filter. That if the index goes below this, then I will not trade. Yes. And you track this small cap 100 only. Yes. See, I track small cap 100 only. Because there is a reason for this too. Whatever I have studied till now. Yes. I have done on this only. And I trade in small, mid caps. So if you put the index of mid cap, it works ideally. Most of the times. Here you will not see any difference. But if I go to Nifty. Nifty runs completely different. Okay. So I have not done any analysis on Nifty. Till now. Because I do not trade large caps. What is Nifty 50? There are only 50 stocks in the market. Yes. Means you have made one. That if this small cap 100 Index is below 10 moving average. Okay. Are you using moving average simply or exponentially? This is exponential. All moving averages are exponential. Yes. There is a reason for this too. SMA reacts very less. It reacts slow. Okay. As compared to EMA. Okay. So EMA does a little fast. So whatever I have studied till now. Complete. Till now. 12-13 years. It is a based on this. I have checked here. Whether it was below or above. Simple. Okay. There is only one index. Okay. Then. We have seen the database. So what did I tell you? That every year the same thing happens. It will happen in 2017, 2021, 2025. Same thing. We will see. Okay. Same pullback came. Same work done. Now what is a pullback? Let's understand that. What is a pullback? Our stock gives a move after that it takes a little break. Why does it take a break? Maybe it makes a base or there is a profit booking. And if the big player don't want to buy at a high price. Then what do you do? You have to accumulate it at a lower price. Then because of the profit booking there.The stock falls a little. I said a little. If it falls 70-80%. Then it is of no use. Then this pullback will not happen. Yes. Or 30. I am saying that even a 40% pullback never happens. Okay. I have studied this also that what is the depth of pullback in big winners. Okay. We will see that data also. We saw why pullback happens. People sell. Suppose any stock has moved 100% someone is feeling like let's sell the stock a bit, that it should not come down. Thinking that they sell the stock. So because of the profit booking the price corrects a bit. Okay. That I talk about big winners where this thing happens. Now let's come to the condition. Our point starts from here that is of setup. What is the first thing? Strong prior uptrend. Which we saw. We have to buy pullback in up trend and we don't have to touch downtrend stocks.. We need a prior uptrend. One thing I marked is strong, there is a difference in this also, weak or strong, let's say I open RBL bank, now you will feel this stock is in tup rend, but it is not strong. How? See whatever stock touches 10,20 again and again, again and again, means it came to 10, 20 again in 10 days, it is coming again in 5 days, what is this, it is weak for me, I don't want this. Means you are saying that in short 10, 20, yes, means the pullback it is giving, it should not be given again and again, it should go like this, like this, if there is a pullback after that, then I will buy the stock, like let's take an example, we have seen that it is touching 10, 20 again and again, now there was a stock, see it starts from 17, let's see 5-8 examples of this setup. See of 2017 this was the biggest mover, this stock was already became Rs 25 to 800. Oh this stock became Rs. 25 to Rs. 800. Yes. Now it gave us not given an entry chance, we will see, it was in stage 2, this is called a strong leg, see it is not coming again and again, it is not even coming near 10, this was the strongest leg in this stock, that where should I buy the pullback, whatever I do here, then I can expect the same movement after the breakout, same thing. Means if it is coming near 10, then it is fine. Yes, it is fine near 10, but it should not come again and again, it is coming in 5-7 days, it is giving pullback after pullback, this gives tiredness to the stock, you will not buy the RBL bank for 10-15% move in a month. What kind of move do I want? After my breakout, I want a move of 40-50-70% for a short period of time, first we need the nature of the stock, this is the nature of it, it has done this thing, it can repeat again simple. And what RBL bank has done, it is repeating the same thing again, see it is coming here again and again, so what is the first thing, it is a strong prior uptrend, not prior uptrend, it should be strong, this is the first condition of the pullback setup, we will see all the examples, then it should be in stage 2, as I told you, we will buy pullback in HLE glascoat, we will not do it here, why? Because it is not in stage 2. See I will explain the basics of stage 2. Yes, I was going to ask you the same, how will you know that it is in stage 2. If I go to do this, then it is a session of 1-2 hours of stage 2 with example, but I will explain the basics a little, what happens in stage 2, see the market or stock runs in the cycle, what happens in stage 1, it is dead phase, we call it accumulation phase in stock, the stock is lying like this, and see in stage 2, the main moving average is 200 DMA, from that I will get an idea that it has gone to stage 2 or not, what happens is, in 200 DMA for example, it is lying like this, I will make it red, 200 DMA, like this, what is the price doing, it is going up or down, upward movement is not clean in it. It is going up and down, then a time comes, the stock goes out like this, this is stage 2. Now what is the condition here, the volume that was dead here, all of a sudden how it reacts? Big moves. Now for example, let me explain in this RVNL chart, it will be more easy, to understand this, RVNL has moved in stage 2, as I am seeing, see what the stock is doing, there is no trend around 200 in this stock. And this stage 1, stage 2 you have to check this in daily time frame or weekly, monthly, it will be good on weekly, but you will get to know here, how? I am also explaining this, here there was no big volume, you see what happened here, it is coming up and down of 200, I mean what I call it stage 1 where there is no clean action in stock, then a time comes, big player is feeling that the incubation is over, now it is time to take it to stage 2, one more thing, suppose I am getting confidence here that it will go to stage 2, it is not that I will buy here and sit, because there is no guarantee of stage 1, it will end in 1 year or in 15 years, so I don't have to anticipate that it has become cheap or it will come to stage 2, there are many stocks that are dead like this, so I don't have to anticipate, so what do I do. I do trade which has already come to stage 2, I do trade on confirmation, I react, I don't anticipate, there was nothing till here, stock is dead like this, see now, now focus on the volume, how it is coming, it was all dead, all of a sudden a strong volume started to come, one more thing is the condition of stage 2, the pull back that is also coming, it should not be very steep, like stock is moving like this, it is coming back again like this, what is happening here, leg is coming, natural pull back, leg is coming, natural pull back, so this is the condition of stage 2, volume should be last, then how should the pull back be? Small, that if the pull back is wide here, if it is going back and forth, then this stock is of no use. So this stock has come in stage 2, now I didn't see any entry here, it will be fine, I don't have to come that I have to catch this stock, what I have done, it is momentum, big player has come, the volume that we saw, stage 2 has been established, after that, it was in the bear market, here, so the stock is also falling, it didn't do anything negative still, then as soon as the uptrend started in the market, from here, where did the stock come straight, near, high scale, it has come in the range of 25%, 52 week high, correct, so here was my setup, this day, in this stock, I bought this stock this day, and this strong leg has come in the stock, so what is this, already established stage 2, I am buying in this, correct, so here I have to do the same thing, even in pull back, if it is in stage 2 then only I will see, otherwise I will not even touch that stock, another thing what happens in stage 2, what was 200 DMA, till now, it was flat, see here, now see what will happen, now it will start to turn, it will be rising, look at this, this rising has started, this is also a confirmation of stage 2, so multiple confirmation has to be taken, a strong leg comes in the stock with good volume, what 200 DMA has do, it has to rise, this confirms stage 2. Now the stock has come in the trend, after that all the pull backs, whatever base is made, breakouts, base, you can do everything in the stock, so again if we go here, then it should be in stage 2, now see, I come to the third point, how should pull back happen, it is written in orderly manner, we will see what happens now, see it shouldn't be hard pull back. What does orderly mean, that if a stock is moving like this, how should its down trend happen like this, it is not like it should give me such a pull back, this is of no use, or after giving one leg, it comes down like this, I call this hard pull back, what does orderly mean? Let's see an example of Dhani itself which we just saw, what happened in this, I am showing you the chart of 2017, a strong leg came here, look at the volume, the stock has come in stage 2, now it has done a good old time break out, whatever you say, now see how this pull back happens matters, this is in stage 2 and it is a strong uptrend, both the condition are getting fulfilled. What is the third condition, pull back should be orderly, now see, it is coming down like this, do you see, it is coming down slowly, it is giving tightness in the rounding type formation, this setup was here, how is it coming, it is coming in the rounding type formation, like I call it orderly pull back, what is the volume happening, it is drying, what does this show, that the selling interest is ending, the profit book that had to be done, it is done now, this is what kind of a pull back is not needed, yes, it should not fall down very fast, some stock fell 20% in 2-3 days, they are not able to move, I will give you an example. We saw this orderly pull back, we are going to see a lot of examples, then we get entry and this stock has given a good leg, it had doubled, it had tripled, if I was in 2017, Do I really ride that much? I would have never done to this stock, what is my stance, I am a swing trader, whatever moves I get in 30-40-50%, I will take it aggressively and exit, we will see how to do it, we saw this orderly pull back, now we will see some examples of hard pull back, after that we will come to the setup, there was a Paras in hard pull back, this was live on twitter, I said that I don't think Paras will be able to move here, a strong leg came here with good volume, but how does it fall, let's understand that, in 3 days this stock has fallen almost 20%, I will not call this orderly, what people do, big winners respect 10-20, so what we could have done, it came near 10, let's buy it. So here tightness came. Here. Then what we do is, we enter here, volume is getting tight, volume is dry, you can see dryness here, what mistake people do is, they buy the stock here, as soon as you buy, entry is triggered here, what hit SL in this stock, again you try, see what is the problem of hard pullback here, the more hard pullback there is, the more selling pressure there is, and the more selling pressure there is, the more supply there is. and the more supply there is, that stock takes time to absorb it. Still, Paras was not able to move, why, there is so much supply in the stock, that's why. Then why did it move, because there is no supply there, the stock is coming very slow. Okay. I have written here in a borderly manner, that there should be a gradual and controlled pullback, which I have shown here. How much has fallen, 14% in 10 days, that stock is falling 20% in 3 days, it will not be able to move. So how should it come? It should come very slow. Or in weeks or in 15 days, it is falling 15%, that stock should fall like this, it should not fall straight. Means even if it falls 20%, it should take 30 days or more days, it should not fall in 2-3 days. In hard pullback, there is one more example, let's see this also. See, it come in view radar, because people had traded it, I had seen it on twitter, people were tracking it. Like a strong leg came, now see how it is falling, it is falling hard. Yes, it has fallen again, more percentage in less days. Now see, I blindly follow the rule of 10-20 EMA, big winners respect it, so what will I do? Here I can see a pullback, I will buy the stock here, thinking that now it will work. I have done the buy, I know it is a hard pullback, in 3 days, the stock has almost fallen by 22%. Okay. Now what will happen if I buy, now? SL, why it didn't work? Because there is a lot of selling pressure. The more the selling pressure, the more time it takes for the stock to absorb the supply. So how should the pullbacks be? They should be very clean. It was Subros, this is also a stock, I have updated it on twitter, I don't think Subros will move from here. Like this, in 3 days, the stock has fallen by 18% from high, in 3 days. So as soon as you see this volume action, you pullback near 10, you buy, see the stock is dead. It is not able to move, why it is not able to move? It takes time for the stock to absorb the supply, still it is not able to move. See, it has done a breakdown. So how should the pullback be? It should be in an orderly manner. The more the hard pullback, the more time it will take to absorb the supply. Correct. Here we saw this. Now let's move to the examples. See, before that, let's cover this thing. Now see, we have seen the orderly manner. Now it is, how much should the pullback be in the percentage range? Yes. I have also marked this that the big winners, their pullback is in the range of 12-20%. 20% goes very rare, it is very rare. Rest, in the range of 12-15%, mostly there are pullbacks in the stock. I have seen very less than this. So see, if you want to understand a setup, then you have to understand everything. Correct. If it come to stage 2, if I try a hard pullback, then it will not work. If I don't know the uptrend, how it should be, then also it will not work. How is the pullback, in what percentage range, that also will not work. So whatever I have studied till now, what have I seen? How many pullbacks are there? 12-20%. 20% is the maximum limit. I never trade on this. And that should also be slow. Then what is there? Strong stocks respect 10-20 EMA beautifully. See, I also have this data. If you see any big winner, they respect 10-20 EMA. Let's see just one example. COCHINSHIP was the biggest mover of the bull market. It gave the strongest leg. If you see this, for example, as the stock came out of the base. Here, by giving shakeout. Now you see, it comes near 10-20. What does the stock do? It bounces. Again, it comes near 10-20. What does it do again? It bounces. Again it comes. It bounces. Again it comes near 10-20. What is this stock doing? It is respecting. So where are you planning the pullback? Near 10-20. Because if there is potential in it, we have seen Dhani. Where was it? It was near 10-20. Can you see it? I know it is near 10-20. I can see it. So there is more probability here. If it is a winner, then it is a big mover. Correct. See, there is a setup. We have to work on every part. We can't do everything just by understanding one thing. So what did I do? I divided the setup into many things. What do I have to see? And every point should be there. If it is a slow mover, it is respecting 10-20. Even if it is respecting 10-20, it is of no use. We have seen this point. Then the volume should be contracted in the pullback. Because the supply is decreasing. We will get an idea. Then the entry is coming in the SLP. Now see, where do we have to do the entry? Let's understand that too. On the high of the mother candle. Now see, what does the mother candle mean? For example, this stock is in the uptrend. Now it is giving a pullback. And it is showing tightness near 10-20. And I have to make a candle here. Like this, inside bar. Inside the bar means another bar inside the bar I call this inside bar. Now what is the mother candle of this? So what will I plan here? This is my entry price. And see, you can do my system full time. Sorry. What is my system? I don't want to do that thing full time. What will I do? I have seen this scanning. That inside bar has been made. Stock is ready to move now. So what did I see? It is ready. What will I do now? I will put a trigger on it. Order. Which I have to buy now. Now let's talk about stop loss. Where to put stop loss? That is fix. Previous day low. Okay. What does it mean? I am buying here. This day. That stock. Previous day low means recent low. Correct. This is my fixed. Now here also there is a thing. If I wanted, I could have taken swing low, stop loss. If I wanted, I could have taken same day low. And if I wanted, I could have taken previous day low. Then what did I do? Again I studied past winner. So I marked one thing. Past winners don't break previous day low. Most of the times. Okay. So I decided that if I am giving 8% SL here. So big. Then I will give 4% SL best. I know if it breaks. If it doesn't work here. Then they break swing low. Most of the times. Okay. So I don't have to give so much room to it. See, the bigger SL will be there. My size will be less. Which I don't have to do. Okay. For example, what I am saying. See, I have decided that, what I 'm saying the bigger the SL, the smaller the size. I have a calculator. Okay. This is your position size calculator. Yes. See now. For example, I have an account of 10 lakhs. And I am taking a risk of 10,000. Okay. I have a risk of 1% of the account. I am buying here at 100. And my SL is 96 in the starting. Means 4%. Okay. So how much does it go? Allocation of 25%. I got 2.5 lakhs. My allocation is that much here. Hmm. Now I go here with 15% SL Or keep 10%. I kept swing low as SL So my swing low is at 10%. So I kept 90 here. So how much allocation came? 10,000. Means only 10%. Allocation of 10 lakhs. Of 1 lakh, right? Yes. So what did I do here? I have not changed anything in risk. I am doing 10,000 there also. I am going to do 10,000 here also. Where did the change come? On sizing. Hmm. Here my big size came. My risk is same. My size is big. So what will happen? If that stock went 20-30%. Then it will be 8-10% of my account. Like this. In that stock. Which I want. As a swing trader. So what did I do? I studied fast winner. I saw this thing. Whichever has done big move. Whichever stock. Hmm. That stock has gone up without breaking previous day low. So I decided that Where will I keep SL? PDL. Previous day low. Fixed. Okay. Here 3% is coming. Or 5% is coming. Maximum limit of stop loss is 5%. Okay. I don't go above this. Never. If 5% is coming. Then what will I do? I will ignore this. My sizing will come less. There is no meaning of this. Okay. So we have discussed. Where to do entry? On high of the mother bar. And where to keep SL? Previous day low. Yes. Okay. So now our system is made. Correct. Entry. They know. SL we know. What we have to see in the stock? We know that too. Now how to manage. Before that. We will come to other examples. We have discussed this too, Dhani. Now we do. Whatever big movers were made. BEPL of that year 2017, We will see 2-2 examples of 2017 Okay. BEPL was the biggest over of that time of 2017 It became Rs. 120 from 13. Okay this stock, let's understand this stock. Now you tell me when time of entry comes I will try to understand this mother candle. Okay. Let's go. Now this is a move. This is a strong move. Right. And now this is your base So there is a Doji candle here In the third last is the mother candle Yes. Actually I am talking about the one in front of it Yes this? Yes, this one. Should we consider this as a mother candle Yes. Or the one in front of it See, we have to do this one. Let's understand this, there was no tightness in the stock I know how much this stock has fallen from high. I have an idea It has fallen only 11% which is coming in its range Correct. We saw the pullback happens in the range of 12-20% And it is coming. Now what happened here There is an inside bar in this stock Now you will also have a question that it is not perfect here It has gone down a little If I had put the condition in the scanner of inside the bar I would have missed this day. Why? Because the computer does not know that this stock has gone down a little and come back That is why I do not put the correct rules Inside bar or range of 2-3% Now here is the entire price action of this day The stock is pulling back near 10-20 EMA. What are the rules? Strong uptrend Stage 2 stock? It has already. It is an uptrending stock Let's go rule wise. Whatever condition we have put Strong prior uptrend is there? Yes. How stock moves? Strongly. How much has it moved? 50% Then what is the second condition that it should be in stage 2. Okay. It is already in stage 2 Momentum is established in the stock. Then what is the third rule? Pullback should be in an orderly manner So what is the scene? Is it moving straight down? No, it is taking time and coming slowly. In how many days did it come almost? From 10th October It took 15 days to correct 10% Then this pullback is also ideal. Pullback is in the range of 12-20% Yes, it has a 11% fall. We saw that also. Then what does the strong stock does? It respects 20. This is also doing? Yes. It is becoming tight coming close to 10-20. All the rules are being fulfilled. Then the volume is also getting dry Yes, the volume is also getting dry So the criteria of 5 star setup is being fulfilled. Now we have to decide entry and stop loss I have already got the inside bar in the stock. Here. I have already got the tightness, the volume is dry What I will do now I will place the order here of buying. And previous day low is our stop loss. How much is it coming. Let's mark it. It is coming around 4.5%. It's ideal, I said it does not go above 5% All the criteria are matching as a swing trade. We can take this. See. I have a question This stock went from Rs 59.60 to almost Rs 77 Where will you exit We will see that too. Now we are just understanding where the entry is We are not understanding all this now. Then I will show you with an example Okay. I trail or what I do to the stock. Which I showed you. What do big winners do to 10, 20 EMA. It respects it. See here also it did. Again here it is doing. Again. Then it came down and again it's doing I have seen this repeatable process again and again. If you buy up trending stocks in VCPs Like here VCP was being formed around 10, 20. Yes. This stock makes huge money. We have to hold only this much momentum of between. There will not be 1-2 stocks in bull market There are thousands of stocks which moves like this. Okay. Where is my money As long as there is momentum, I will keep it. Momentum out, we are out. We will see how to manage this stock. We have seen 2 stocks of 2017 Lets move ahead let's start from 2022 in the bull market. There was a bear market in 2022, let's see if move was coming in that. Let's see 2 more examples of 2022. I bought UCO BANK When PSU's rally was going on. In October-November of 2022. It was very strong. Look at this. Now this is a down trending stock What is 200 DMA doing. It's moving up and down. I can't see any traction Then see from here. All of a sudden, such big volume started coming What did you 200 DMA started doing? Started moving upside. Now see, it was almost 37% leg. It is a strong leg? Yes. It is not coming near 10, 20 again and again. It moved very fast What do I want now How it is coming here. How is it looking to you? Meaning how is it coming? It's coming down slowly. Look at the volume contraction If I had kept the inside bar It would not have come in my scanner It has gone up a little and came down. I know that the rounding type formation has happened The price has been contracted, volume contraction also took place The stock is getting tight in the rounding type formation coming around 10,20. I can see it here But if I had put the condition of inside bar Maybe the stock would not have come. That's why I don't add that. This is entry day. Simple Pullback trade. All the condition. Let's the fall too. Let's see 10% It is coming in its range It is not giving fast down leg. It is coming very slow. Look at this stock Simple SL small, big profit, simple. How much was SL here. If we mark it is around 3%. Profit is around 40%. Within 3 days This is the game of timing. If I bought here in this day. I don't have to pass time this 2 years. From where the momentum has started from there I'll see it. Look, there was one more setup If it is in stage 2 look at it, the strong candle See, this is a flag setup again. Selling came here. Let's understand this. Strong big leg came here After that selling comes in the stock. Then, how is it coming? Slowly Look at it now, what has happened Again it this stock had become tight. Price contraction Mother candle is formed. Simple. Volume contraction has taken place. How much is the pullback If I mark it from here Still it is 13%. Which is in our range. Look at this I understood your entry Again we saw UCO Bank, Suzlon. Management we will see later. Now we will see what are the rules I am not covering it now otherwise we will completely get confused. Let's look at this Suzlon. Look at 200 EMA. It never came to this volume. What it shows That a big player is buying the stock. Everything is at the volume Look if you see at the defence rally, Cochinship, Mazdock whichever big stocks gave the move Or look at the PSU rally What was one thing common there? Sky scrapper volume. Simple Which shows that big player are buying the stock. Simple. There was setup in the between or not? Because I can't buy the stock in between There is no entry location. I don't buy stock randomly Then see. How is it coming Slowly What has happened. Again inside bar is there it has gone up a bit. Look, if you see here. Correct Like how is the stock coming. Look at the volume Again this stock How much it has fallen, let's see Around 16% Again it is coming in its range, pullback etc whatever we studied like strong buying force, Low volume pullback everything is here. How much is the SL Around 4.5% Again same thing Which one did you calculate as SL. Look what I'll do now, inside bar has gone up a bit and come back What will I do, I will mark my entry here. And SL here. I understood Okay. See now what happens here. As the stock comes down people get scared and exit form the stock saying it didn't move. This is very normal. Sometimes stocks couldn't move the same day. It takes time to move. Which it did here. It came down one day, what will people do, they exit the stock out of fear. We don't have to do this. It is a bull market, see why I'm taking such a big SL I have to give time to the stock. If it doesn't move 1-2 days, it will work for me. Yes. You have set your SL. What people do, they squat and exit. I call this a squat If it comes back after breakout below the breakout line. I call this the stock squat. People exited out of fear from here. Here that phase come why did I exit. Again strong leg has come Our work is done in the stock. Correct. You will see this a lot in the bull market We saw of 2022, let's see the last example now After that we will go to trade management Now we saw the winners of 2023 Let's see of 2024 Which I traded. Siyaram silk. This was one of the stock. Again dead phase. No movement is there here. We will not trade. Again earnings come here. Good reaction of the stock. Again where we will know it is a big player, in the volumes, again How did it move? The stock has given fast move. Strong move Then What's the pullback it's giving? - It is slow. - It's slow. How much has the stock fallen? - It's coming in the range of 12%. - Correct. Here what happened to the stock? - It has become tight. - Correct. - Now my entry triggered at this point, in the morning. - Yes. Now I won't leave. I know that my SL (Stop Loss) is here, in this stock. It doesn't matter to me now. Since I have already given it so much time, I could give one or two more days. Observe this stock and it's movement. - Oh! - I had ride this completely. I exited it on this day. We will also check the reason why I did so, in time management. Ok alright! Panacea Bio - The one I traded. Now let's head to trade management. Because I hope the setup is now clear. Again the same thing.. it is lying dead, there is no movement in the stock. See such volumes comes in the strong leg stock. What else do I need? Low volume pull back. - Here a mother candle has formed. - Yes, a mother candle has formed. What did I do? I bought it on this particular day. What did I see? More inside bar is being formed. The set up has ripened even more. The volume has contracted more. So what I have done is added more stock here in te gap up. And where did I shift the SL? I did it entirely to the -Same in previous day low. Now I only have to give a certain space to the stock. It needs to move from here strongly. It moved. Yes strongly. I hope the set up is clear. Yes, I have understood your set up until now. I have even understood your buying style. Now you tell me, how do you book profits and what's your criteria for the same? Let's undersrtand that in a while. Are you clear about the others? Let's head to trade management and understand how do I manage trades. So the first rule is.. As the stock moves to 2R. What does it mean? My SL is 5%. If that stock moves 10% in my direction. So I will try to bring the stock upto break even. Presume I've bought it. - Meaning at your buying price? Yes. Presume I bought it at 100 and SL is at 95. If the price comes at 110. I will keep break even at 100 my Stop Loss.. There is a quote by Dan Zanger's on Horses Winning horses don't come back to the gates. If the stock has already proved it's strength, by moving 10% to 15% or 20%. So If it's coming back again after the pull back.. It doesn't mean you will take the entire SL in the stock. So, the simple step is to.. If it moves to 2R, bring it to break even and make the stock risk free. You don't have to do profit booking. I am only making it risk free, that I am shifting the stop loss at break even. So you have psychologically settled yourself.. that I can trade If I want to trade on a new one. I can take a new risk. I can add a new risk to my portfolio. So this is one rule. This at 2R bring the stop loss at break even. It also depends in which market do you belong to. I won't book quickly, If I am in the bull market. I know the stock has potential to rise quickly. What will I do If I am in the bear market.. For instance, what I want to share about the bear market is.. If I am in the initial phase of the bear market, here.. If I am trading in this rally By bear market, you mean.. The index that you are currently following.. If that's below the 10 simple exponential moving average.. then that is considered as a bear market. What I have to see, that a lot of stocks are coming below 200 here all together. There is a lot of selling pressure.. And after that a rally appears, for example I buy a stock here. So I won't plan to do a long ride, why? Because this market has just started. And I know more 'legs' could appear from here, there are higher chances in this stock. So I won't say that I will ride with similar intensity as I do in bull market. - Can we also find such setups in the bear market? - Yes. I will give one more example. This here.. There is a stock named AWL (Agri Business) .. IPO Oh! That IPO stock. Oh, yes base could also be formed in IPO as well. There was a fall and a strong recovery in this stock. Now the stock is turning tight at 10-20 range. - If you look at the volume, it has turned completely dry. - Yes. The stock has turned tight completely. The stock is at the tight range, the volume has contracted entirely. Now people say, that you should not ride in bear market Leave at 10 to 15%. If you do this too, you will miss this. You will wonder when the move happened. I will show you that. 20th March. It's breakout happened on the 17th March If on 17th March.. Let's see here, initial phase of the bear market.. After that, the rally that's occured. If I look at the index around 17th March. Correct. The rally that happend prior the tariff war. When am I buying it? - I am talking about 2022. - Oh! you are talking about 2022. - in this phase.. - Ok. Since you know the bear market just started. You were riding the secondary trend of bear market. I know that I don't have to touch any stocks here. I will come when I know that my stocks are working fine. Bear market also performs well in rallies. The rally of bear market are also tradable. But what matters is here how you sell. I can't be defensive here while selling. I will be aggressive. I will book 1/2 at 4R. Bring the stock to 2R after break even already. As soon as it moves to 4R, it rose to 15-20%. The stock rose to 20%, what will I do? I booked it half. My next step would be.. Trail rest half with 10 EMA (Exponential Moving Average). Understood. But how are you supposed to do with 10 EMA, let's understand that. Let's talk about any normal condition. I will pick up any stock. Inox In was my biggest winner. I caught 120% move in this stock on an average. I bought on this day. Now let's understand the trade management rule in this. What are we supposed to at 4R? What did we do at 2R? We placed our SL at breakeven at 2R. As we know the 2R has moved here. we brought it at break even here, the trade is risk free now. Now, I received 4R here. What did I do? What will I do If it's a bear market? I will book a 1/2. This was a bull market, then how much will I book? 1/3rd I will book 1/3rd in the bull market here. I have booked 1/3rd at 4R. What am I supposed to do now? What is the next condition? Trail rest 1/3rd with 10 EMA. Now we will understand how to do it. Settle it at 10. What is the first rule? Closing below 10. This is the first condition. If I go up to here, it hasn't closed at 10 on any day. I will keep the stock. I don't have a problem. It closed for the first time below 10 here. Our first condition has been fulfilled. Condition 1: Closing below 10 EMA. Exit the trade on the breach of candle. Until the point where the candle has closed under 10 EMA. you will mark it's low. And when it's low, comes in the second day trade, you will exit. I will add SL here in the broker's account already. When the stock price drops below this, I will leave the stock. I shifted my SL under this on the same day. What happened now? It didn't break. People panic and leave when they see it's dropped down. Now since this didn't break, I will keep this stock. Now, there is one condition. Until this moves slowly, how? You mark it's trend. It went up.. and slowly drops down in a day or two. I can manage it for a long ride. Why? Because I would have to become aggressive, if it went the other way. Because the pull back will be equally fast in the stock. If it has moved 40 to 50% or 70%, in the past 3-4 days. The pull backs will be fast too. I don't want to stay in this. Because a move of 40% to 50% is quite normal in swing trading. If you are able to get it. If I am able to get it fast, then well and good. How is it going here? It's slow. It moves gradually here, and pauses at some point. This leg isn't functional either. I will keep it even If it goes too slow, I don't have any problem. See, how it's going slow everyday. What happened, then? It came at 10 and bounced. I still kept despite it being slow. - Then, first here. - Here.. It went but didn't close so I will keep it. When am I supposed to watch it.. at 3:30.. When was the closing. I don't want to execute anything in the live market. I don't do it with fear. - I came down here. - You will mark the low. I will shift my SL here. But at what size? We have booked 1/3rd and we will book 1/3rd here. This went off. What's the next rule? Closing below 20. The last size. See, it closed here below 20. It was here before. The next day, again it closed below this.. I shifted the SL here. Ok, the same rule applies here.. closing below 20.. and you'll mark the candle's low and exit when it breaks. And this was my exit. How much profit was earned of this stock on the portfolio? 101%. What's the rule base? I don't want to bring my emotions into the stock. Why did I decide on Moving Averages? The one thing I studied is.. Strong stock works. Respects 10-20 properly. Then I will align my selling criteria as per that. Another thing I decided, considering I don't want to decide emotionally. What happens is.. Investors who make mistakes. Presume there was a move here. There will be a question everyday, what do to do? Should I leave or not from the stock? So If I have a rule to leave, then I won't have any confusion. I know If 4R, book 1/2. If it went to 2R, bring it to break even. You have to trail 1/3rd with 10. You have to trail 1/3rd by 20. So I have all the rules. If I have the rules, then I won't have any confusion. And how much would the stock move, we don't know. What is the rule I would use? I would trail the stock. If there is no trailing.. I need home run trades, what does home run mean? A stock that could give my portfolio a move by 10 to 15%. in the same trade. Similar to how R-Power did I rode the entire 66% leg, and made it to 12%. What is this? It's a home run trade for me. You will be able to make more money, If you get it. If I exited the stock at 3R or 4R here. then I wouldn't have been able to make so much money. You wouldn't have been able to find these stocks everyday. So, If you have found it, then you ride the stock without being emotionally attached. Hence, the trade management rule I applied here is.. If we are talking about a normal condition.. I will keep the stock, until it slowly progresses. Now it's time to talk about agressive profit booking. It's not that a stock has moved upto 80% to 90% in a given day, And I would tell that I'll remove the stock when it comes below 10%. What is the rule here? I will keep you an example Akums I bought this stock as an IPO. This IPO appeard, I bought it.. Look at this.. All those conditons won't come in the IPO stock, right? For example, If there is no 10 here. then I won't be able to trail the stock with 10 here. If there is a breakout here, and the stock is running continuously. Now If I say, I'll remove it when it comes below 10. Presume it comes to 10 here. How much has it moved? The SL was 2.5%. It has moved to 40% within 5 days. And you want 40% only. -Yes - So, you will exit anyway. I will move out aggressively. If it reflects buying everyday, then it doesn't mean I am greedy. That I would ride it until multi month. You can't act the same here. What would happen If you did. It could have given back completely. You also must be aware when to be aggressive, for example.. We just saw an example of Siayaram Silk. I have done the ride fully and I have shown you.. Why was I able to ride this stock? Because it matters what the stock does. I bought it here. Took it for a day.. It's still the same. But there is no issue, I can still drag it long. There was a strong leg again, let's see what happens. The stock didn't come below 10. It didn't come even once. What is the stock doing? It operates and then pauses. I can drag it even further. There was a leg again here. Now I will think to book profit aggressively, yes. Because, what was the trend until now? If there was a base breakout, after giving one leg. Which moved slowly, has now rose up quickly like this. So I will either remove 80% to 90%.. If it goes too fast like this, then I will book the stock entirely. You must know when to be aggressive. I bought a IREDA stock once. My move was very fast in this stock. Again I had bought an IPO flag in this. The IPO flag was formed. The volume contraction, price contraction occurred. How much is the SL? Only 2.3%. How is the stock performing now? - Now it's pretty aggressive. I know that I have gained 60% move in the same stock. I removed 90% entirely on this day in this stock. So what would this be? If I would have kept it on time pass under this.. So now we spoke about trade management. How to manage? It's different for bull market and for bear market. How do you understand what's bear market? Suppose I use market breadth. You will understand one thing here. If you understand with a scanner. What can you see here. It started after August and September.. there is a percentage of stocks above 200 SMA Any stocks above 200. Here, you can find number of stocks as 70%. 77% of the stocks were above 200. If I were to talk about the entire market or liquid stocks. There is data of around 2000 stocks, and the decided the number here based on that. What can I see now, it went great until December. How much were the numbers? They were 60% still. Observe the fall afterwards, these are the signs of bear market. There is selling in the entire market simultaneously. More stocks started performing under 200. If you look here, were at the dead phase in the market/ bear market. We were at the dead phase, after August. The index goes up still. We managed a high in December, index wise. But look at the numbers here. Where did we top? In August. The selling had started in the market already. And the intensity increased here even more. It gave us an idea, that we need to become defensive in the bear market. - What did you retrieve? - This is the market breadth indicator. - Is this paid? - No, this is free. Anyone can use it. I will share it with you. You can view the numbers here. How many stocks are there in 20 DMA or below How much is the new high? What we can see here? This number has topped in May itself. 20 SMA stocks. This market is not able to move easily. Why so? What is happening with the numbers? It's reducing. The market states to buy everyday. This false phase is known as 'choppy phase'. How many breakouts are you trying here? The stocks operate very selectively. If you have something else, for example, my breakouts aren't working. You saw the breakouts aren't working and there are diversions here too. You will become a bit defensive to try the breakouts. As a swing trader, this is more important. Yes, the market timing is very important. I will show you how I do it. We saw everything until now. How to do trade management and aggressive profit booking. Now let's come to one more thing. If you want to make huge money in the market. For that you will need high performing months. How will you ride those months? By riding the winner. This is a living example. June 2023 was my best month. I gained around 38% profit. I will even show you the index. June 2023. Which phase was it? This phase.. until here. The rally of one month in the market. I got hold of a lot of big winners. And this month I gained a return of 38% to 39% in a month. Yes, only swing trade, nothing else. I had only timed the stock. This is the snapshot of my trading journal. These are the trades of that particular month. My total trades were 17. Understand one thing here. My losses.. And my SLs hit too. I am not saying there is 100% accuracy. Nobody can achieve it. Accuracy will stay between 50 to 60%. No matter how good of a technical analyst you are, and no matter how hard you try. But I need to make good money with the winners present. I have 3 trades on 10 R. Can you see? -Yes. These numbers have reached 13R to 12R. If you can see the big movers they are near 8R. These 5R or 6R. But the one's which are losses. How is the structure? Quite small. - 1 R. - Yes, almost same. Yes, if it's within -1R, I am out, simple. But what do I do when I find winners? I ride it completely. So this is the reality of trading. If you understand this, then you won't run behind accuracy. My total trades were 17. Your accuracy is only 47%. That too I'm talking about bull market. The accuracy of bull market is around 60%, if we consider a high performing month. It could be 60% to 65%. I haven't achieved above this yet. You will find 6 winners and 4 losers among 10. If it's bear market, then you will find 4 winners and 6 losers out of 10. The ratio will be the same. It means our accuracy will revolve around 30% to 60%. How many winners were there? 8.. How many Losers? 9 Accuracy? 47% Now see The winners that I have made How much have I made overall in it? 58.45R If I am taking 0.8% risk Then how much will it be of my account? 1R If for example I go very less on risk in bull market I am talking about account I am taking 0.8% risk If this stock hits my stop loss How much will I lose? 0.8% How much will it be? 1R If my SL hits below this How much will I lose? 0.8% of the portfolio Correct. So if my SL hits, how much will I lose? Minus 1R. Simple. If I profit, how much will it be? 12R, 13R it has gone this much. So here you can see Total R of winners is 58 Total Loss? 8 Some stocks even without stop loss meaning I did break out but that follow through is not coming So I have exited in 0.5% loss also of my account. So how much is it? 8 R I have lost. How much was I profitable? 58 How much is the final R? 50 If as per the risk of my per trade in bull market. Until I am profitable I don't change the R I don't change my risk. What do people do? If confidence is coming, they do 0.4% of account as risk. If it is very less They do it 0.1% If it is very high, they take a risk of 1% of the account Which I don't do My rule is same That I keep my risk same per trade in bull market Until I am profiting till then my risk is same in per trade. How much is it? 0.8% of the portfolio How much did I make here? 40% If I cut the brokerage My brokerage say was of 2% of 1.5% Still profit is around 39-38% in a month in swing trade. So whatever they say, money is not there This is a game of timing If you know the market is good You time the stock Buy with small SL Ride big move, simple If the market is bad, for example which is of now. Can you go aggressive here? You can't No matter how much you try What will the stock do. One day's breakout Then it will come down or keep consolidating. It is of no use. Why did I make money here? Because it was trending in the market Correct Whatever you buy, there are moves in the stock It was such a trending market I made money. Now see how the market runs Market Runs from hard money environment to easy money environment Again hard money comes The market never runs on one line It kept moving. There is no correction for 1-2 years If I look at a bull market It ran for 6-8 months There was a good move After that what happened. There was a choppy phase. There was a correction Again the market gave a good leg Then there comes a correction in between Correct The market is not like You will make good money every month Or you will be aggressive every month which you are being, I was aggressive here Then I saw this thing, then I came in drawdown Then what will I do? I will stop trading What I will do reduce my size I can do it We will also see how to do market timing How to time market Then another good month came here Then how month came? Choppy Now, this month of june was very good for me. Here I caught some stocks of defence So how does the market run? From hard to First it stays in easy money environment After that hard Again easy then hard Market moves in this way. The market is seasonal The money will not be the same for 12 months So the time comes When you become aggressive. Times comes when you become defensive Now you will have question When to be aggressive, how will we know? When to be defensive. See in the market How to do timing. I do timing with stock. What are my stocks doing And how do they run How to stock time. For example I bought a stock It started running I bought another new trade Again it started running Then I am seeing 6 out of 10 stocks are moving Rest are going to go late in some stocks. But There comes a time in the market Where you buy a stock It takes a day It does like this. You buy something again Again it gave a leg and it came down. So this is hard money environment Here what you have to do? Step back from the market Here I don't have any edge Edge means what I do From where I am making money From where I'm making money. From breakouts They are not working here Correct. So where they are not working What will I do? I will take a step back from the market. See, what happens here is that we come into FOMO because 1-2 stocks are running. Some stocks are there, some move randomly whatever the market is. That I have JP power. Now I am seeing that this stock has missed. Now I am focusing on only one stock. I am not seeing that 9 out of 10 stocks are failing, only one is working. So which is a good market for me from where 8 out of 10 stocks are working at least. Why is the current market choppy? See what I do. As soon as my SL is cutting in the market, I will stop trading. I don't trade daily. Then I make a breakout list daily. For example, let's see what is happening in the breakouts. Now let's say HPL has done a breakout here. Now ideally what should happen? Breakouts follow through should come. Strong legs should come. But it is not doing it. See, if I bought it SL could have been hit. Now again I am seeing another stock. Let's go to Wockhardt Here it did a pullback setup or whatever setup it was. It did a breakout here. Strong volume has also come. But it is not following through. See, it has come back again. If I see that many stocks are doing this. It also had a strong leg here. It got tight, volume got dry, tried breakout. But see how big a spot it has done. If I see that many stocks are doing this at the same time. What they are doing here. Then what time is this. To get defensive. For example, Waaree did a breakout here. Then this also could not work. Now I am seeing this in many stocks. It did a breakout here. It didn't work. I am seeing many breakouts are failing. What did it do here? It gave a strong leg, made a flag. Strong candle also came. But what did not come? Follow through didn't come. See, if I go ahead. No follow through. So I will keep making this list every day. When will I come to the market to be aggressive? When something starts working here. It will start to follow through. See, my breakout is not working. Then I am seeing that the index is also choppy. What does choppy mean? See, no rule can be made here. Above 10 bullish, below 10 bearish. Because in the choppy market, the index keeps doing this. One day it will go up, one day it will go down. So what is the first criteria? To be aggressive and defensive. Setups. What are my setups doing? I have seen that such a clean leg comes in the stock. Then this pull back also comes. But what does not come after that? Strong momentum does not come. So my setup is not working. Whatever index is doing after that. It does not matter to me here. So what do people do in the choppy phase? They get stuck. They keep trading every day. Breakout is not working. They know it's not working. But see how they get stuck. See, I have put any scanner here. Of combined winner. Whatever data is coming. There are 500 stocks. What do this people do now? See, it was missed. This stock went up. Data matics is going up. Now what they are not able to understand that. 5 or 6 stocks is only performing. Now out of that. Only 5 or 6 stocks is only moving What is the condition in the rest of the market? That I showed you. Breakout failure. What is the guarantee you can catch it here from the whole market? There is no guarantee for that. See the setups first. What do setups do? After that the index comes, everything comes after that. Market breadth. What do I do? How do I go selective that my setup is not working? What is the index? Choppy. It is another negative thing is that the index is choppy, my setup is not working. What do you see in market breadth? Divergence. I sitting outside market That is right. First I don't see this thing. If the index is above 10, then I will buy. If the index is below 20, then I will sell. I will not do anything. I first go to the setups. After that comes the index. After that comes the market breadth, what it is doing. If all three are running together, then I am aggressive in the market. Simple. But this setup rule you said. It can also happen that you will know only after taking some trades. Yes. So you will have some problem in the starting. Your stop loss will be hit. Yes. Suppose this thing is happening here. Suppose I have traded for 4-6 days. But nothing is working in the market. Then what will I do? I am taking 8-10 trades in a week. What will I do then? I'll take 1-2. You will reduce your number of trades. Yes. Which I did. I have taken 6 trades in 22-23 days. Only 6 trades. I am defensive here. Okay. What do I do? First I decide on the setups that what I have to do ahead. Then let's come on the timing. This is what I do. How will I know from the setup? How to time that? First let's understand that cricket and swing is same. What I have written here. What the batsman does. Adjusts his swings. If he knows that the pitch condition is very bad. Then the full force setter meaning the shots they hit, they don't do it here. they don't do it here, they know that there is a lot of swing in the ball, or it is very hard, the bounce is more, so what will it do, they will play defensively in that pitch. Same thing happens in swing, that you can't be aggressive all the time in swing, which I said is seasonal. The market trends 3-4 times a year properly, there you have to make money. If you make money for 5-6 months, then it will be in a dead phase for 5-6 months, or you will be in a drawdown. This is the whole nature of the stock market. Okay. The market never runs together or in one rise, that it keeps running for a year without giving any pullback. This does not happen, the market takes time in between. So what do we do, when it takes time, we have to adjust our swing. How? That I will sit outside the market, I will reduce the trend. If you compare, we learn everything, we learn watching we see that the aggressiveness of a batsman in T20 is not in the test. Why? Because the condition is different there and here. Same thing happens in swing trading, that you are going to a good market with full force, I am taking a risk of 0.8%, I can't take it here. Here I will run at 0.4-0.5%, what I am doing it now. My risk has not gone to 0.8% in this 15-20 days, in this month. Why? Because my breakouts are not working, which should be done firstly. So according to the condition, what am I doing, I am putting my stance in the market. So see, the game is all about timing. Okay. How do you time the market? If you know to time the market. If you know that there is a choppy phase, I have to sit outside. If you know that a good market is going on, you have to be aggressive. If you know that there is a down trending market, you have to sit outside. So if you know how to time all three phases of the market, then you can make a lot of money. See, it is a seasonal business, you have to make money for 3-4 months, rest of the time there will be a downtrending or choppy market. So timing is everything in the market. Okay, so thank you Mr. Hiren. And your setup is very good, but I have noticed one thing here that it is more important to practice in your setups. Yes. And the more you practice, the better you can execute it. Yes. So it was a lot of fun, sir, in your case. And whatever indicators you have told me, you give them to me. I will put it in the description below for our viewers. And if you have any questions, you can also ask them in the comments below. And I will also give you Mr. Hiren's Twitter ID in the description below. So you can also ask him questions there too. And you tell me in the comments below which was your best part in this video and why. And Mr. Hiren, how was your experience here? It was a lot of fun. Because this is my second time doing a podcast. So much flow didn't work till now. But it was fun. Correct. So thank you Mr. Hiren. And I wish that you do well in life. And keep teaching us and a lot of people like this. Thank you Vijay Bhai. Thank you. [Music]