The Ultimate 3-Indicator Swing Trading Strategy on Chartink
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Why 1.5/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✕ Roughly ZERO per-trade edge (-0.04R) — real costs eat whatever is there
- ✕ Payoff 0.53 — the average winner is SMALLER than the average loser
- ✕ 7 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2019, 2020, 2022) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -79% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: Swing trading strategy using RSI(5) oversold bounces above moving average support (50-MA or 200-MA) with trend filter; mean reversion on short-term dips within longer-term uptrends. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 16,854 trades, win 62%, payoff 0.53, expectancy -0.04R/trade (avg -0.40%/trade).
This is essentially breakeven. The payoff ratio is thin. Regime-dependent — positive in only 11% of years.
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)
Tracking since 2026-08-14 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5% | -8% | -16% | -29% | -47% | +15% | +10% | -8% | -32% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 1012 | 61% | -0.06R | -0.68% |
| 2019 | 2116 | 62% | -0.04R | -0.39% |
| 2020 | 1842 | 65% | -0.03R | -0.33% |
| 2021 | 2004 | 68% | +0.04R | +0.16% |
| 2022 | 2296 | 57% | -0.12R | -0.95% |
| 2023 | 1798 | 64% | -0.00R | -0.28% |
| 2024 | 2207 | 63% | -0.01R | -0.17% |
| 2025 | 2426 | 63% | -0.03R | -0.39% |
| 2026 | 1153 | 54% | -0.14R | -0.85% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 108 | 63% | -0.5% | +10% | -49% | +23% |
| 2 | ████████ | 117 | 69% | +0.6% | +16% | +73% | +22% |
| 3 | ████████ | 111 | 62% | -0.3% | +19% | -35% | +22% |
| 4 | ████████ | 121 | 59% | -0.4% | +5% | -52% | +22% |
| 5 | ████████ | 96 | 60% | -0.7% | +16% | -63% | +19% |
| 6 | ████████ | 106 | 62% | +0.3% | +16% | +28% | +18% |
| 7 | ████████ | 109 | 57% | -0.5% | +27% | -51% | +18% |
| 8 | VEDL free peek | 95 | 74% | +1.1% | +18% | +100% | +17% |
| 9 | ████████ | 104 | 62% | -0.4% | +20% | -42% | +15% |
| 10 | ████████ | 99 | 62% | -0.7% | +8% | -65% | +15% |
| 11 | ████████ | 109 | 61% | -0.5% | +18% | -60% | +14% |
| 12 | ████████ | 85 | 64% | +0.5% | +12% | +39% | +13% |
| 13 | ████████ | 121 | 55% | -1.1% | +11% | -129% | +13% |
| 14 | ████████ | 106 | 70% | +0.0% | +14% | +0% | +12% |
| 15 | ████████ | 97 | 63% | -0.0% | +13% | -1% | +11% |
| 16 | ████████ | 115 | 68% | +0.2% | +9% | +21% | +10% |
| 17 | ████████ | 116 | 54% | -1.1% | +15% | -125% | +10% |
| 18 | ████████ | 119 | 56% | -0.6% | +13% | -71% | +9% |
| 19 | ████████ | 97 | 56% | -0.9% | +10% | -92% | +9% |
| 20 | ████████ | 109 | 67% | +0.1% | +11% | +13% | +8% |
| 21 | ████████ | 99 | 54% | -1.4% | +8% | -136% | -55% |
| 22 | ████████ | 124 | 52% | -0.9% | +11% | -106% | -45% |
| 23 | ████████ | 109 | 58% | -0.7% | +14% | -76% | -44% |
| 24 | ████████ | 115 | 55% | -1.0% | +10% | -117% | -37% |
| 25 | ████████ | 114 | 52% | -1.2% | +11% | -135% | -35% |
| 26 | ████████ | 122 | 56% | -0.8% | +19% | -100% | -33% |
| 27 | ████████ | 75 | 68% | +0.0% | +8% | +1% | -29% |
| 28 | ████████ | 106 | 51% | -0.3% | +10% | -31% | -26% |
| 29 | ████████ | 110 | 55% | -0.7% | +6% | -81% | -25% |
| 30 | ████████ | 120 | 62% | -0.3% | +16% | -40% | -25% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 133 | 62% | -0.08R | -0.30% |
| BANKNIFTY | 138 | 62% | -0.06R | -0.34% |
Full transcript (6221 words)
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