Full transcript (3700 words)
In this video I'm going to rank the top 10 strategies that people most commonly trade. So that you do not have to waste time and after watching this video you will understand in which strategy and system you should invest your time and which strategy will be most suitable for you. Especially if you are a beginner and you are trying to learn trading. So let's start without wasting time. Here we will rank the strategies into four categories. a B C D. A means best, B means okay. Meaning it should be done but with a little caution. If you can avoid C then you should do it. D Which should not be done at all. The first strategy we are going to review is Indicator Overload. Now what does indicator overload mean? Usually, when any person starts trading, he is told that brother, do one thing, go to the indicator. Go to indicators and find RSI. RSI it is done. After that people are told, brother, do one thing, find the Binger bands. So we will apply Billinger band. After that people are also told to find Magdi, brother. Magdi arrived. So when you look at people's charts, if you are following any trader, if his chart looks like this then brother, you need to run away a little. These indicators are lagging indicators. Lagging means that the indicator is printed after the price has moved. So let me replay this. Now if I forward this, I will still see which move will come first. Look, this first move comes and after that the indicator is formed. Ok ? So now look at all three indicators. First the move will come and after that the indicator starts moving up and down. So that means this indicator is giving you old information on the chart. And there are very less chances that you will be able to become profitable by using all these indicators. Now of course there might be exceptions, there will be some people who are making profit even after using all these things. But again, congratulations to him for his profitability. But if you are a complete beginner then I would suggest you that the more you stay away from indicator based strategies, the better it is. So the indicator overload strategy which includes RSI, Bolliger Bands, MCD and some other indicators except moving averages. I will put this strategy with all the indicators in the diet. Dieter means the more you stay away from it, the better. Now at number two we are going to have a strategy or system and that is SMC. Now many people ask me that Umar Sir Umar Bhai should I do SMC trade or ICT trade. Today finally we are going to understand it in detail. Now in SMC I have seen people trading two types of things. The full form of SMC is Smart Money Concepts where it is claimed that there is smart money. Smart money means institutional traders and not retail traders. We are retail traders. We are common people, common man who is called dumb money. The institutions which are big banks that move the markets and have billions of dollars are called smart money and this is called so because it is assumed that if a big billion dollar bank is moving something, placing some trade, then there is probably something they are smarter than the normal people, for this they are called smart money and smart money concepts basically mean that such concepts which are used by institutions which are smart money and some basic concepts come in smart money concepts like the order has been blocked, okay order block means whichever level has seen a big move, it will be marked as support and it will be considered as order block. Now the next time the price taps that level, we will buy it. For example, I marked an order block here because a big move came from here. Now here you can see that when the price tapped this order block, the price went up from here. After that there are some more patterns which are called QML which are called late QML. There are many patterns in SMC. Now I will rank the strategies by some basic criteria. The number one criteria is going to be how well a beginner can understand it. Secondly, can a person become profitable by applying this ? How easily it can become profitable. And how much time will it take to learn this, I will rank SMC in B tier. Because I think Anles Antil you have a very good teacher. There is a very good mentor who is profitable himself who is trading this system himself. Till then, if you try to learn CA for free from YouTube, then SMC can do the job. But this is not something that a beginner should start with. Comes. Then after that, the third strategy, the third system that we are going to review is going to be ICT. So the well form of ICT is Inner Circle Trader. Now the concepts of Inner Circle Trader, Inner Circle Trader is a big YouTuber who has introduced these ICT concepts. Now honestly, I have not understood the ICT concept till date. Ok? There is another concept of break of structure in it by choch. CHOH change of character is what it is called perhaps. There are many concepts in ICT. Very similar to smart money concepts. But ICT goes into a little more detail. And I feel that is told by refabricating more of the same things. But I believe ICT also belongs in the B tier. Purely because it can be a bit difficult for a beginner to learn ICT concepts on his own. There are very few people I have seen. It is not that these people are not profitable by doing ICT trading. One of the most profitable traders I know are ICD traders. But it can be very complex for a beginner to learn. And it may take a lot of time for a beginner to learn ICT. So I'll put that on be tare. After that comes breakout trading. What a breakout reading means is that there is a level that the price is repeatedly testing. If the price is trying to break out. If the price finally breaks then you buy. Your stop loss is below the zone and your target is 1:2 or the next resistance level. Initially when I started my journey I used to do breakout trading in Indian stock market. I used to do swing trading. And that is a strategy because of which I saw profitability for the first time in my life. And I started swing trading. Meaning he used to hold trades for a few days and not do it intraday. Even intraday, I sometimes used to do breakout trading in the beginning. But that did not work for me. So, based on my experience, I would rank breakout trading in C tier. It would be better if you stay away from breakout trading. Only if you are purely waiting for breakouts. If you trade solely on the basis of breakouts without using any other factors, there are high chances that you may not be able to become profitable. Because nowadays there is so much liquidity hunt and stop hunt in the market. If you only do breakout trading then there are very less chances that you will be able to become a profitable trader. After that comes the fifth strategy which is Fibonacci and Pullback trading. I've put together Fibonacci and pullback trading. What does Fibonacci pullback trading mean? Now whenever you look at the price, the price does not go in a straight line from one. If the price has to go up, it will go up a little and then come down. It will go up, it will come down, it will go up. This is always how the price goes up. And if the price wants to go down then the price never falls straight down. Unless it's a crash. But if the price has to fall then it falls like this. It falls in waves, downwards and upwards. So if you are a pullback trader then your goal is to buy when the price is going up. And whenever the price pulls back downwards, you will buy here, going up, it pulls back down again, you will buy here. So your goal as a pullback trader is to buy on these pullbacks. Now what usually happens? The best way to judge a pullback is Fibonacci. Fibonacci is a very cool mathematical concept that works brilliantly. And honestly, Fibonacci ratios work not only in trading but in every small thing in the universe. So let me give you an example. Now suppose the price goes up here. Came down here. The price gave a pullback here. Now I will mark Fibonacci from here from low to high point. Here I have marked Fibonacci. I will extend this a little further. So that made me understand how much the price pulled back. Here you will see exactly at 0.618 level, we call it golden pocket. I made a detailed video on Fibonacci many years ago. If you want to see it, you can see it. Where I have explained Fibonacci in detail. There was a pullback here and the price moved upwards from here. Which was a brilliant brilliant brilliant pullback. Again I think Fibonacci is one of the best concepts of trading that has ever existed. So if you just tell me to leave everything. Trade using just one tool. So that would be Fibonacci. So I will put Fibonacci in absolute eight years. Fibonacci is the simplest to understand. And with basic market understanding, you can start using Fibonacci. And if you use Fibonacci there is a very very high chance that you will become a profitable trader. But Fibonacci should be used on the right time frame. If you use it on 1 minute time frame. The smaller the time frame you go to, the lower your accuracy will be. The higher the time frame you go to, the more your accuracy will increase. Coming to the sixth number strategy, I have named it session based strategy. Now session based strategy is a form of strategy that I use myself. What a session based strategy means is that of course there are three major sessions in the Forex market. There is an Asia session, a London session and a New York session. So a strategy that works on the basis of sessions will be called a session based strategy. Now I personally use session based strategies a lot. I've also created a number of free YouTube videos explaining these similar strategies, which are great and work really well for people. Many people have also made huge profits. So let me explain a simple session strategy to you. Suppose London is open. Ok? Whenever the London session opens, your buyers are bullish. Suppose your market structure looks bullish in the long term on the four-hour time frame or the daytime frame. So if the market opens in London and as soon as it gives you a bullish break of the structure. For example, here a bullish break of structure has happened on the 5 minute time frame, so we can buy here. Here I will place a buy trade. I will place a stop loss below and keep a simple target of 1:2. I usually call this London Continuation Strategy where we can enter the market by taking a trade on whichever side trade we get on the London Open. For example, suppose here my bias is bearish, here London opened. Bearish break of structure was found here. This will be my stop loss. I would aim for a simple 1:2. And in this scenario my target has been hit. Now usually this strategy works very well. Why does it work? Because what happens normally? Algorithms, thanks to the large institutions they run their algorithms over a specific time window. Repeat your patterns. Now of course the big players are sitting in London. Those who want to move the market will of course do that in the London session only. And what happens normally? Now these banks, these big institutions, have to execute a lot of orders in very large quantities. Now of course they cannot do this in one go. In fact, it cannot be done even in a day. Sometimes what happens is that it takes them months to build or exit a complete position. Now if you have to enter or exit a huge amount of positions, and it is going to take you months, then what you will do is you will try to place the same orders and at the same time and in the same way, what happens is that a repeated pattern is formed in the market. If you test this simple strategy again and again, you will realize that usually a good move comes in the London session. And to get that good move, if you do basic market structure analysis and trade on London open then you can capture a good session or a good move in that particular session. And again I have created many such strategies which are session based. And of course they work very well. It is working very well for my students too. So I am going to put session based strategies in eight years because it is very easy to understand. It also takes very little time. And you don't have to sit in front of the charts all day. You just have to sit for one session. There is no need to give more than one or two hours. And it is easy to understand. A beginner can implement it immediately. Number seven is liquidity and stop hunt strategies. Now a lot of people these days are doing liquidity liquidity liquidity and trading liquidity strategies. But does it actually work and how practical is it? Now liquidity is a very simple concept which I have again explained in detail in another YouTube video. But if you try to understand liquidity overall, it seems a bit complex. It may be a little hard for a beginner to understand. But does it work 110%? Liquidity is an absolutely amazing concept and you must know it if you are trying to become a trader. It may take some time for you to understand it as a beginner. It definitely works. You will have to apply a little bit of confluence. You will have to understand a little. If you are a beginner, it may take time. But it definitely works and for that reason I think I will put liquidity in BTA. The number at is very interesting which is moving average. Now many traders and many people use moving averages. Moving average is a simple concept where what happens? There are some lines that basically show the average price over a certain period. For example, suppose this line that you see is my 50 day moving average. That means the average price in the last 50 days has been at this level. So if the actual price is 5108 then I see that the 50 day moving average is 5098. Now you will also notice that moving average is also a lagging indicator. Well, but whenever the price moves away from the moving average by a certain percentage. For example, let's take an example here. Ok? Here you can see that usually the price is close to the moving average and keeps moving slowly. But whenever the price moves away from the moving average, what usually happens is the price comes back to the moving average and the market corrects. So the market corrects itself. What usually happens when the end market corrects ? The price either breaks the moving average or comes back to the moving average. As you can see here, the market corrected and came back to the moving average. So we call this mean rivers. Now this is a very realistic and statistical phenomenon. This is a very normal thing in statistics. The price cannot move without mean returns. Basically, the meaning of mean reversion is moving average in simple language. Price will definitely come back and touch it. So now there can be complications in this. You never know how far the price will go before touching the moving average again, how high it will go , how low it will go, your bank balance may fluctuate by that much. So it is better if you stay a little away from the moving average. So I would put the moving average strategy in C tier because just trading the moving average alone is not going to work for you. Number nine is trend lines. Now trend line is a very interesting concept. Honestly, since the beginning of my trading career, I have played the band of trend lines and only trend lines. Because till date I have not understood the concept of trend line. And I don't understand why people trade trend lines. Because my simple argument regarding trend lines is that if people say that price takes support on the trend line. Ok? He must be taking it. But if there is a buyer who is sitting here in this particular area and he has to buy here only, then if he has to buy at 4980, then with what mind will he say that I will buy extra for $10, either he will wait for his price or he will not buy at all, in normal cases why would the buyer increase his feed price, so according to me the supply and demand is not dynamic, it is usually flat, it is linear, where it taps the price and usually by filling the orders the price goes up and down and if suppose the price goes very high then usually the market finds out a new supply and a new demand. But due to this simple logical reasoning, I have not been able to understand the trend line till date. Maybe I am wrong. It is also true that there are many traders who are profitable by using simple trend lines. But will I use it ? No. Would I recommend? Yes, trend line is a very simple concept to understand. But I believe that whatever concept you are trading, whatever strategy you are trading, you should understand the complete logic behind it. Because if you understand the logic, then you are going to be very confident about that thing. And only with confidence your trading psychology will be good. So if someone can explain the concept behind trend lines to you well and you are able to believe it. If you understand it logically then trend line is a good concept to trade as it works in the higher time frames so I would put trend line honestly I am confused between B tier and C tier and because I am confused so I am going to put trend line in C tier. And last but not the least is the most commonly traded strategy which is support and resistance. And when every person learns trading, he is taught basic support and resistance. Now the definition of basic support and resistance is that a level which has been tapped three times on the upward side will be called resistance. A basic level that has been tapped three times on the downside is called support. Now if this support is broken then it becomes resistance. When resistance is broken, it becomes support. So this is called support and resistance. Ok? Simple support and resistance again does not work in today's time. In such a market, if you try to trade simple support and resistance, you will be in trouble. Because the market has started getting very trappy. People have started hunting stop loss. Like I will give you an example here. So you will say brother, okay it has been done once, twice, thrice, we have tested it, so let's take a shot here. The band started playing here. So this is also basic support and resistance. And again basic support and resistance fails in most cases. Does not work in most cases. Until then, you can use either the Confluence of Order Block or some people also use Fair Value Gaps. Some people also use other concepts. Some people also use volume profiles and other concepts. You can also use liquidity. Until and unless you are combining simple support and resistance with some confluence. There is a very high chance that it will not work. Specially for a trading strategy. If you take it to the weekly time frame or higher time frame, then definitely the support and resistance levels work on larger time frames. And that is majorly due to fundamental levels. For example, if I create a level here, then you can see that the level of $1000 for gold was a very strong support. Whenever the price came around $000, it took very strong support here and then went up from here. After that you can see here that this was a level. Gold faced a very strong resistance. This resistance level is almost about to be broken. It took 4 years. And then when it broke, it broke so badly that it seems I will never be able to come back here. So support and resistance works in the long term. It can be used for long term buying and long term investing but for trading I don't think it is a good concept. So I'm going to put this support and resistance into this and stay away from it. But it can be good if you combine it with other concepts. So these were the top ten commonly traded strategies and I hope this might speed up your journey or save you time and I will see you the next one.