Trading Trick Is A Money Printer
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Why 1.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✕ Negative expectancy: -0.24R per trade across 28,458 trades
- ✕ Payoff 0.60 — the average winner is SMALLER than the average loser
- ✕ 9 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2019, 2020, 2021) — the edge is regime-dependent
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: Friday-to-Monday prior-level revisit: if Friday's high < Thursday's high, then Friday's low is expected to be hit/swept on Monday. We isolated the one mechanical claim — a day-of-week bias where a prior session's level is expected to be 'revisited'/swept — and traded it short across 159 large/mid-caps with real costs: 28,458 trades, win 49%, expectancy -0.24R/trade (avg -0.24%/trade).
The result is a high win-rate that still loses money after costs — a negative-skew mirage: small targets, larger adverse moves. A directional lean can be statistically real yet still fail to pay once you attach a target, a stop and costs.
Mechanically decoded and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review.
How we tested it
Tested on the 159 large/mid-cap daily universe, 2018-2026. We flagged every Friday that immediately followed a Thursday and whose high was below Thursday's high (28,531 cases), then measured how often the next trading day (Monday) traded at or below Friday's low, against the unconditional base rate. The tradeable read shorts Friday's close targeting Friday's low, exiting at Monday's close otherwise; we ran it with and without a stop at Friday's high, applying ~0.12% round-trip costs and conservative daily-bar fill assumptions (ties resolved against the trade).
🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)
Tracking since 2026-08-03 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 1715 | 47% | -0.21R | -0.26% |
| 2019 | 3467 | 50% | -0.22R | -0.21% |
| 2020 | 3227 | 48% | -0.05R | -0.11% |
| 2021 | 3380 | 49% | -0.30R | -0.33% |
| 2022 | 3842 | 58% | -0.06R | -0.10% |
| 2023 | 3642 | 41% | -0.41R | -0.34% |
| 2024 | 3521 | 42% | -0.37R | -0.34% |
| 2025 | 4033 | 49% | -0.30R | -0.26% |
| 2026 | 1631 | 56% | -0.15R | -0.17% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 188 | 52% | -0.1% | +6% | -16% | +6% |
| 2 | ████████ | 179 | 49% | -0.3% | +7% | -47% | +5% |
| 3 | ████████ | 192 | 53% | -0.1% | +6% | -13% | +4% |
| 4 | ████████ | 56 | 57% | -0.3% | +2% | -15% | +4% |
| 5 | ████████ | 189 | 48% | -0.2% | +10% | -46% | +4% |
| 6 | ████████ | 192 | 42% | -0.3% | +9% | -59% | +4% |
| 7 | ████████ | 150 | 43% | -0.5% | +4% | -76% | +4% |
| 8 | IDFCFIRSTB free peek | 179 | 53% | -0.0% | +11% | -8% | +3% |
| 9 | ████████ | 182 | 52% | -0.1% | +9% | -10% | +3% |
| 10 | ████████ | 178 | 54% | -0.1% | +3% | -9% | +2% |
| 11 | ████████ | 192 | 51% | -0.1% | +7% | -14% | +2% |
| 12 | ████████ | 105 | 51% | -0.2% | +5% | -22% | +2% |
| 13 | ████████ | 187 | 50% | -0.2% | +3% | -39% | +2% |
| 14 | ████████ | 175 | 49% | -0.2% | +3% | -40% | +2% |
| 15 | ████████ | 188 | 49% | -0.2% | +4% | -44% | +2% |
| 16 | ████████ | 170 | 50% | -0.3% | +3% | -46% | +2% |
| 17 | ████████ | 179 | 51% | -0.3% | +5% | -46% | +2% |
| 18 | ████████ | 183 | 50% | -0.3% | +6% | -47% | +2% |
| 19 | ████████ | 165 | 45% | -0.3% | +2% | -49% | +2% |
| 20 | ████████ | 188 | 49% | -0.3% | +3% | -51% | +2% |
| 21 | ████████ | 190 | 50% | -0.4% | +3% | -70% | -13% |
| 22 | ████████ | 186 | 42% | -0.3% | +10% | -60% | -9% |
| 23 | ████████ | 188 | 47% | -0.3% | +3% | -56% | -9% |
| 24 | ████████ | 186 | 53% | -0.1% | +13% | -25% | -9% |
| 25 | ████████ | 188 | 43% | -0.3% | +8% | -48% | -8% |
| 26 | ████████ | 183 | 50% | -0.2% | +11% | -37% | -8% |
| 27 | ████████ | 180 | 48% | -0.2% | +7% | -32% | -8% |
| 28 | ████████ | 185 | 43% | -0.4% | +3% | -73% | -7% |
| 29 | ████████ | 151 | 48% | -0.3% | +3% | -48% | -7% |
| 30 | ████████ | 206 | 44% | -0.2% | +6% | -43% | -7% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 242 | 35% | -0.55R | -0.19% |
| BANKNIFTY | 254 | 45% | -0.41R | -0.18% |
Full transcript (132 words)
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