Trading Strategy with 1:10X Risk Reward — backtested on Indian market data | FakeTrades
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Trading Strategy with 1:10X Risk Reward

Kirubakaran Rajendran · watch on YouTube ↗
Analysed 01 Aug 2026, 02:43 PM IST
★★☆☆☆ 2.0 / 5

Why 2.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)

  • Roughly ZERO per-trade edge (+0.02R) — real costs eat whatever is there
  • Max drawdown -40% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way

Detected components (auto-read from transcript)

IntradaySwing EMASMA/MARSIGap

Claims it makes (quotes pulled from the transcript)

  • “Recent Vivek Bajaj order analyst trading strategy and remember we easy to implement strategy and number easy explain video detail trading strategy the video the”
  • “67 extremely oversold I think I come from next day and the gap up I see gap up I don't I don't know open price the enter 2103 the open I did intraday trader on ”

Verdict

Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: Gap-up/down mean-reversion trade on oversold RSI (RSI <30) with 21-day EMA exit; emphasis on risk-reward ratio and position sizing. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 3,280 trades, win 50%, payoff 1.02, expectancy +0.02R/trade (avg -0.06%/trade).

This is essentially breakeven. The payoff ratio is thin. Reasonably consistent (78% of years positive).

Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.

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🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)

Tracking since 2026-07-23 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.

Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)

₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)

Return-20.3%
CAGR-2.8%
Max drawdown-39.6%
Trades592 · 286 won
₹200,000 → ₹159,448  ·  2018-07-10 → 2026-06-08
201820192020202120222023202420252026
-8%+4%-15%+18%-10%+7%+2%-9%-8%

Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.

Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)

YearTradesWin %ExpectancyAvg return / trade
201824752% +0.00R +0.14%
201943354% +0.08R +0.53%
202046534% -0.31R -2.17%
202119066% +0.32R +1.86%
202248250% +0.01R -0.16%
202329059% +0.18R +0.44%
202437350% -0.00R -0.27%
202549254% +0.09R +0.35%
202630847% +0.01R +0.24%

Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)

#StockTradesWin%Avg/tradeBestTotal2026
1 ████████ 2756% +0.8% +25% +21% +38%
2 ████████ 2157% -0.4% +18% -8% +27%
3 ████████ 2255% +1.5% +26% +34% +26%
4 ████████ 1650% +0.4% +12% +7% +18%
5 ████████ 1974% +3.9% +20% +73% +17%
6 ████████ 1856% +1.8% +15% +33% +15%
7 ████████ 2264% +0.8% +8% +17% +15%
8 INFY free peek 3142% -0.5% +23% -16% +15%
9 ████████ 3161% +2.5% +16% +76% +14%
10 ████████ 2552% +0.3% +14% +9% +14%
11 ████████ 2544% -1.2% +8% -31% +14%
12 ████████ 1921% -4.7% +20% -90% +14%
13 ████████ 2065% +2.0% +13% +39% +13%
14 ████████ 1464% +2.7% +17% +38% +13%
15 ████████ 2060% -0.0% +7% +0% +13%
16 ████████ 2152% -1.5% +19% -31% +13%
17 ████████ 1560% +2.6% +16% +38% +12%
18 ████████ 2065% +1.1% +11% +22% +12%
19 ████████ 1765% +1.9% +15% +32% +11%
20 ████████ 2756% +0.9% +18% +25% +11%
21 ████████ 3043% -1.3% +7% -40% -31%
22 ████████ 2446% -0.6% +15% -15% -27%
23 ████████ 2119% -4.5% +12% -94% -25%
24 ████████ 1729% -1.6% +10% -27% -18%
25 ████████ 2255% +0.4% +11% +8% -18%
26 ████████ 2532% -2.6% +7% -66% -17%
27 ████████ 2934% -1.8% +15% -52% -17%
28 ████████ 2133% -2.2% +8% -45% -16%
29 ████████ 1547% +0.1% +7% +1% -16%
30 ████████ 1258% +1.0% +23% +12% -16%
You can see the numbers — see the names. Unlock every stock in this breakdown and download it as Excel. The worst stock in this table returned -94% under these exact rules — one wrong pick costs many times the unlock.

Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)

IndexTradesWin%Expectancy (R/trade)Avg return/trade
NIFTY2245% -0.10R -0.35%
BANKNIFTY2759% +0.18R +1.60%
Full transcript (1393 words)
Recent Vivek Bajaj order analyst trading strategy and remember we easy to implement strategy and number easy explain video detail trading strategy the video the video explanation strategy overall trading strategy trading the trade trade the breakdown Imagine trade trade trade loss money the profit normal trading strategy winning trade I'm going thought process the CNBC Mitesh when 30% winning accuracy everyone trading risk reward ratio remember particular trade profit so one next 10 next what do you call the risk reward ratio focus dinner dinner back to back the dinner the entire the entire the entire so now and the war focus trading so you put the report trading the base so everyone trading the setup formation the matter the way to trading in case the person in case stop loss the number but now favorable the risk the number the returns the setup the order overall the setup >> All the retail traders so high winning accuracy focus professional traders have high risk reward ratio So if they don't want to waste the I believe losses when they matter but the other losses profits are focus All the traders or the professional traders are focused winning accuracy risk reward ratio So I believe All trading setup core logic fundamental So in the trading core reason So gaps Gaps that fill the gaps gaps that run away from the gaps any market open not you know close it not like you open it in the new yesterday's close price today's open general I might just look at the and the gap open market But in the setup in [clears throat] the setup in the new gap gap gap the gap further take away gap gap further market chance to go What is the setup the gap I think turn around down trend stock I think you want to further I think you are down trend stock gap down I think you want to further So in the new turn around stocks I identify trade under turn around in the setup I identify setup I think you are in the >> 21-day moving average moving average and now number focus direct price a good I think but direct on the EMA line. So, number of the price chart of the first EMA apply apply on top of that RSI price chart EMA way first of all overall prices smooth and money though. Other than the number RSI apply even more double smooth outcome. So, easy and that it will all over bought it all over sold So, first trading Other than the indicators that we put it just a moving average and then we put it. So, moving average and I apply money. So, moving average 21-day moving average 21-day moving and the moving normal chart like 21-day either I put RSI So RSI and money to relative strength index of the and money to the default of the money to the in the 14 period RSI price basis So, other than EMA basis of the money to the So, settings of the money to the direct inputs of the money to the source close of the money to the other than the money to the EMA money to the EMA money to the money to the direct of the only the clear than you do. So, price of the money to the money to the other than the money to the RSI money to the EMA money to the money to the in the EMA money to the money to the settings of the money to the so overall of the money to the money to the 70 50 30 and money So, and again 10 10 the lower band upper band of the money Upper band over 90. So, extreme over bought and extreme over sold. So, other one extremely over sold. It is extremely over bought zone. So, in the range of and if a long gap up and gap over sold So, stock RSI over sold region gap market over sold So, bullish bullish RSI Next day market gap gap based current previous close previous high price previous close price gap previous previous previous gap risk open open risk risk overbought region of the call. Market close next day So, market previous day 100 rupees close price. Current day 95 and the further 100 points on the number stop loss hit I don't know. I don't know 95 or short for a month. 85 In case reverse So, in the basis of the in the overall setup open eye breakaway gaps are there. And the breakaway gaps in the market already oversold region So extreme gap up and down reversal I further mail for one So, many of the intraday trader will consider a intraday market in the positional I think open price the entire day. I think stop loss done. But, under particular stock 21 day moving average killer at the pool close out. I forgot I exit the burner. So, either one of the swing trading setup I mean the day in the overall setup So, either in the intraday close money club in the name of bullish in the stock under stock price on the 21 day moving average killer close out. I think consistent in the whole money to put it on. >> So that So this is the particular period. Close I ended. Close I had it next day but you know 2103 difference that gap up gap up the open edge So overall almost previous day but you know 1.67 overall 1.67 extremely oversold I think I come from next day and the gap up I see gap up I don't I don't know open price the enter 2103 the open I did intraday trader on that you know I need a 2217 the close when you begin almost you know more no profit and but you know I don't know the risk more than the profit intraday the close when you begin now I don't know I would say money I know the position that convert money to I don't know swing trading a whole when do 21 day moving average close I don't know I don't know I don't know what I don't know what you doing you know complete I don't know that the 655 and the BSC I don't know 31% profit I don't know what you do I don't know the risk reward ratio difference that you do I don't know that you want to know the risk for now in case stop loss hit I don't know that you want to know the but I I don't know that you do I don't know what you 21 day I don't know what you doing but you know what you doing but you know what you doing I don't know the risk I don't know what you So I don't know So I don't know what you doing but you know what I don't know what you doing I don't know what you doing I don't know what you doing but you know what I don't know what you doing I don't know what you doing I don't know what you doing but you know So I don't know what you doing but you know what overall money management and risk management overall overall trade overall risk and the risk per trade 1% of the capital and other stop loss capital 1% risk 50,000 rupees So, you buy BSC So, stop loss 5% So, apple 5% no 10,000 in the way 10% another risk No, I will just you know complete 21 but returns overall in order no risk reward ratio So, 1 x 10 x 20 easier money So, in order risk capital money position sizing detailed trading set complex simplified and all set up positional and direct trading view Yeah, I don't want to execute stocks open position open position manage money to customer I don't know So, overall accuracy manual trading I'm going trading and everything I'm going to risk per trade 1% capital to manage your position size they were number of size calculate money number of trade consistent execution I'm going to go So, hope you found this video helpful. I don't in the comments mention next some other again see you Bye.

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