Full transcript (4614 words)
I am not the smartest trader you will ever meet, but I am the most successful trader you will ever meet. While most traders are trying to trade like they're performing astrophysics while being thrown around in a rocket, I am consistently and confidently making trades that look like this, trades that look like this, and even trades that look like this using nothing but one simple strategy called the silent flip strategy. This is the easiest, fastest way for any trader of any skill level with any account size to start taking a lot better trades because all you need to do to be able to master this strategy is to use one time frame, one chart, and give up 10 minutes of your time. And I think for most of you, this is a deal that you will take. My name is Carl, and I've been a professional trader for close to two decades now. One of the hardest lessons that took me forever to learn was that every damn time that I tried to get smarter with the market, cuter with the market, or even more clever with the market, every goddamn time I did that, it just made me look stupider. And I know that for a lot of you watching, this is exactly what's happening to you, too. You are putting in hours. You are working as hard as you can, but the results are getting worse. And what you need right now is what I needed back then. You don't need to get smarter. You need to get simpler and possibly even a little dumber. So, in today's video, I'm going to show you exactly how to trade this silent flip strategy. But before we get into that, let me assure you that I'm not going to sit here and waste your time by just talking about it or showing you hypothetical hindsight examples because talk is cheap in this industry. I'm instead going to show you exactly how this strategy works by trading it live when the market opens in exactly 2 hours from now with real money, with real pressure, and with real consequences. That way, by the end of the video, you will be able to make your own decision if you think this silent flip strategy is as simple as I say it is, or you will just watch me lose money trying to trade it. Okay, so we don't have uh too much time, so let's uh get started. I'm going to give you the basics now and then I'll trade the opening and then let's see afterwards if I need to clarify anything. So, first things first, in order for you to get the most out of today's video and for you to get the most out of this silent flip strategy, we need to get the first step right. And the first step is to identify what we call the flip levels and the range levels. Now, like I mentioned in the introduction, the reason that so many people get along with this strategy and love it is because there aren't very many moving parts. It's only one time frame, one chart, and 10 minutes of your time. Starting with the time frame, most other strategies are having you look at multiple different time frames, multiple different charts, splitting your focus between multiple screens, but the silent flip strategy only needs one time frame, and that one time frame is the 15minut time frame. So, let's go ahead and set that up. It's uh pretty easy to do. So, in today's opening, I'm going to trade Nvidia. It doesn't matter what we're trading. Just move your short over to the 15minut time frame. Just click the 15-minut time frame. And uh once we have done that, we can do our very first step. We are going to identify the range high and we are going to identify the range low. But we are also going to identify the flip high and we are going to identify the flip low. Let me show you what I'm talking about. Starting with the range high. The range high is simply the uh previous days high of the asset that you're trading. So this is yesterday's price movements of Nvidia on the 15-minute chart. And as you can see here, the highest price we had on Nvidia yesterday was here. So what we're looking for here is the highest price that we see printed and we are looking for the lowest price that we see printed. And these are our range high and range low levels. So what we want to do here is to take any horizontal drawing tool and draw a line of these two levels. The range high was at around 228 bucks and the range low was around 28 bucks here at the opening. Let's go ahead and uh write those numbers down. Range high 228 bucks, range low 218 bucks. So the range low is simply the previous day's low and the range high is simply the previous day's high. Now the next part of step one is the flip high and the flip low. Now in layman's terms, the flip high is simply the next level above the range high and the flip low is the next level below the range low. Now, if you look at this uh Nvidia chart that we have pulled up here, it's only yesterday's range. We have the uh range high and we have the range low. So, what you need to do is to zoom out from your chart and go back to the left until you find the next price that was lower than the range low. And that is our flip low. It could have been the day before that. It could have been a week ago. Just find the previous low before your range low. And uh actually in this case we already have the flip low here in the previous day. So let's go ahead. We lay a horizontal line on that one too. So the flip low is around 216 bucks. Let's write that down. And we're going to do the same thing with the uh flip high. So, we're going to go back in time and we're going to look for the next high that printed higher than our range high. I go back. I zoom out a bit. And uh here I have a higher high. It's uh a couple of days earlier here on August 27th. Let's go ahead and put a horizontal line on that one too. So, the flip high is around 230 bucks. Let's write that down. And uh that's uh all for step one. We identify the range high, the range low, the flip high, and the flip low. And that's all we need to do. Now, these uh four lines might be recognizable for a lot of people watching because these are the ProR algor resistance and support lines. And uh let me show you a trick here. If you happen to be using Pro Realtime or Trading View, I have coded an indicator that draws these lines automatically every morning so that you don't have to. Just go to the description of the video. Don't forget to hit the subscribe button on the way down there, click the link, download the indicator, import it into your Pro timer Trading View and let it print these levels automatically for you. Now, on to the second step of this strategy and the only two rules of this strategy. So once we have drawn these lines, what do they mean and how do we trade them? We are going to follow two rules. So this is your flip high. This is your range high. This is your range low. And this is your flip low. And the only rule of this step is simple but it is crucial. We are only, and I mean only going to enter a trade and exit a trade at one of these four levels. I told you it was going to be simple, right? We have one chart. We have one time frame and we have four lines and you only buy and sell at those four levels. If the price is anywhere else, then we stay out of the market. Now the question that you should be asking is which of these four lines is our sell lines and which of these four lines are our buy lines. And uh it's h very simple. The upper two lines are our sell side lines. And in layman's terms these two lines are where the biggest shorters has placed their short trades. And every time that the asset you are trading has moved into that level, it has been met with nothing but sellers where the price usually bounces off of and are likely to again. And until those sellers leave the asset, the price will not go higher. The bottom two lines are the opposite. They are the strongest buyside force. So these are our buy side levels. This is where the big buyers has placed their long trades. Every time the price goes down to one of those levels, it gets bought and bounces back up. So, we want to uh sell at the upper two lines and we want to buy at the lower two lines. Now, if we use these levels specifically in the first 60 minutes of the market open, the edge is even stronger. Most of you have experienced how the price behaves around the open. that in the first 15 minutes of each day, the asset that you're trading are swaying up and down between this first range high and the range low, trying to test both the sell side force and the buy side force. Now, shortly after that 15minute candle, something usually happens which is important to you and me trading this. We usually see that the range low eventually gets broken and immediately visits the flip low or the range high gets broken and it visits the flip high. And uh this usually happens sometime after 15 minutes up until an hour after the market open. So, what you and I are looking to do and what the silent flip takes advantage of is to either take a short position here at the flip high and trade it back into the flip low or the range low or we are looking to buy at the flip low and trade it back to the flip high or the range high. Okay, that's uh the two rules. Buy at the bottom, sell at the top. Now, let me show you the actual execution, the actual uh trade execution. So, we're going to take the trade after a specific three candlestick formation. So, these are the last candlesticks of yesterday. And the next candle is the opening. And we're looking for a candle that looks something like this. We call it the bullish opening range candle. And this is the first 15minut candlestick in our formation. The next candle is even more important. That is the silent candle. Hence the silent flip strategy. This silent candle, it tells us two things. Number one, it tells us the legitimacy of the first candle, like basically confirming or denying what actually happened there. And number two, and more importantly, it lets us know what the third and last 15-minute candle means. this third 50-minute candle which in most cases is going to happen at the 45 minute mark. This right here is going to be our entry candle. Now this three candlestick framework is simple but the most important part is not just those candles but how they look and more importantly where they appear. And that is why we started with step one to identify the flip and range levels. So now uh let's go back to Nvidia so I can show you how to exactly dial down on this entry. Now the lines are here. We have the range high, we have the flip high, we have the range low, and we have the uh flip low. So what are the rules, people? You sell up here, you buy down here, and what do you do in all of this mess in the middle? You twiddle your thumbs, you check your email, or you sign up for my brand new copy trading service starting on January 1st, where you and 49 other people can automatically copy all the trades that I make every single day, including the trades by this silent flip strategy. And this right here, this video is where I'm breaking the news. So, go sign up. Link in the description of the video. So, we're not doing anything in the middle. What we're going to do is to wait for that first 15 minute bar and it will tell us which of these levels it picks. We don't have to choose. We don't have to make any decisions. We just wait for that 15-minute bar because that is going to tell us if we're going to be bearish or bullish. Now, it's still a long time until the market opens. So, I'm just going to draw a scenario here so that you understand what I'm doing when I'm trading it live. So, let's say that this happens. We get a big bearish red candle plowing all the way down to the lower parts of the range around the flip low. Let me ask you a question. What would you do in this situation? Someone is forcing you to make a decision. Do you buy or do you sell? I mean, you uh you know the rules. You are obviously a buyer. But here's the thing. We can't just randomly buy here because maybe today is the day where it actually implodes. where we get another black Monday, where we get another layman crash or another COVID crisis. So what do we need? We need the second candle in our candle formation which is the silent candle. And in the scenario I'm drawing now, we do get a silent candle here. Next, we get this green candle. So what is a silent candle? Well, a silent candle is a candle that goes in the opposite direction of a strong bullish or a strong bearish 15minute opening candle. And we call it silent because it's silently indicating that the price is about to turn. So the opening candle needs to be strong. Up or down doesn't matter. And it needs to test and respect our level. If we then get a second candle in the opposite direction of that opening range candle, then it's a confirmed silent candle. And that candle again tells us two things. It tells us that the previous candle indeed respected the levels and it tells us that the next 15minut candle is likely to go lower in this case or if we look at the chart it's likely to go higher in this case. Now at this point we have the confirmation that we need to place a trade and we place the entry at the high of the silent candle. So look at this. We first had this opening range candle. It printed all the way down to the low, slightly below the flip low. And then we had our second candle, a green candle. So that is our silent candle, which means that the market is intending on being bought back up. But again, this might be a sucker candle. Maybe the next one just implodes. And that is why we get the final confirmation when this third and last candle of the formation again goes up to this high level. And that is where we enter the trade. Now this is a little bit late on the entry. We enter exactly when the price moves to that high before price moves all the way up here. We place the stop loss underneath our low here under the big buyer. Now I mentioned this in so many videos before. This is where I want new people to uh listen carefully because this is what most traders struggle to understand. The reason that you are getting stopped out is because you never did these levels in the first place. You're placing your stop losses randomly. But if you make these levels, if you identify these levels, then you have proper levels to place your stop- loss and a proper level to place your target profit. So this is a pretty simple format, right? We have one, two, and three candles. We got the entry, we got the stop- loss, and now to the target profit. So, because this silent flip strategy is range oriented, and we already identify the levels, we know exactly where to take the profit. And you guessed it, we want to place the target profit at the range high or at the flip high. And this is our full trade. This is all there is to the silent flip strategy. Let's do a quick rehearsal. Step one, we identify the flip and range levels. So this is the low and high of yesterday and the next low and high before that. Step two, we follow two rules. The rules being that we sell at the top and we buy at the bottom and we don't ddle around in the middle. Step three is that we trade the three candlestick formation. The first candlestick has to be a strong range testing candle. In this example, it's a green bullish one. The second candlestick is our silent candle and it has to be moving in the opposite direction like this. And the third candlestick is where we enter the trade. And when it looks like this, we enter the short trade at the low of this candle. We place the stop loss up here and we place the target profit down here. And uh what's likely to happen is that the price will continue down from here and that is a win. Now this is a very simple strategy and you should all understand the three steps by now. You should understand the lines. So there's no reason for us to do anything else but to start live trading. It's now around 70 minutes until the market opens and uh I want to get a short run done. So, I will see you again in about an hour. >> Guys, I just realized that if you want to if you don't want to run this strategy manually every morning, I've coded a trading algorithm that trades this exact strategy automatically and uh it's available for Pro Time, Ninja Trader and uh Trading View. So, yeah, it's all free. It's in the description of the video. In return, I'm going to ask you to please give this video a thumbs up and uh yeah, you should do your own due diligence, of course. Uh don't just run it, but make sure that it works on the asset that you want to trade. And uh yeah, I'll see you guys in 45 minutes. Okay, guys. Uh sorry for the way I look. It was a slowing jog today and uh I had no time to shower. The market opens in 15 minutes. So uh let's go. I really want to make this trade today. So I'm actually going to pull up a few more charts to make sure that we get the trading opportunity. This strategy doesn't happen every day on every stock. So to make sure that we actually get a trade today, I'm going to pull up a few other stocks. Let's do Bank of America. Let's do Fiser. And let's do Uber. So, we have bank, we have medical, and we have tech. Actually, let's pull up another one. Let's do energy, too, or gas. Let's do uh let's do Exxon. So, I kind of quickly need to draw all the lines here. Okay, I'm about to finish drawing the lines. I'm on the last chart here which is Exxon. So this is what I did for the four other stocks as well. So first the range high which again means yesterday's high. So I draw a horizontal level here at 164.94 bucks. And then I draw a level here at yesterday's low which is our range low here at 162.7 bucks. And I need to scroll back to find the flip low and the flip high. So, we have a flip low here at around 162.5 bucks and we have a flip high all the way back here at 165.55 bucks. And so, that's that. That's the four levels of the chart. So, there's not much more to do to prepare. Now, I have drawn these four levels on the five different charts. All of the charts are on the 15-minut time frame. And I hope you remember the rules. We are going to be buy side focused at the bottom two lines and we are going to be sell side focused at the um at the top two lines. And after that we are looking for a candlestick formation where the first candle needs to be a strong bearish or a strong bullish candle that tests one of these levels and the second candle needs to be a silent candle meaning that it goes in the opposite direction of that opening range candle. Okay, we are at the open. Let's see what happens. I'm going to let the first 15-minute candle close. Okay, so the first 15-minute candle just closed. Remember, we're looking for a big green opening candle or a big red opening candle that tests one of our levels. We got that on Fiser. We have this big red candle here testing the range low of yesterday. We got it on Nvidia 2. We got this big green candle here testing the range of yesterday's high. And we got it on Uber, too, testing this flip high. On Exxon, we got this candle. It's uh not strong in either direction, which means that I can close down this chart because we didn't get the silent flip uh setup on this chart today. But, you know, you never know, maybe tomorrow. On Bank of America, we got this candle pretty big, but it's not actually testing any of our levels. So, I can close down this chart, too. So, that means that we now have three potential setups. We have Uber, we have Fiser, and we have Nvidia. And now I'm going to wait for this next candle to close. So the silent candle needs to be a candle that moves in the opposite direction of the opening range candle. I just need to wait until it closes. Okay guys, it uh just closed and this is what we got on Fizer. This second candle broke through the range low, which means that it's not a silent candle. So I'm going to close down Fiser. On Nvidia, we have the same thing. The second candle broke through the range high. So, we don't have this setup here either. So, I will close down Nvidia, too. But here, look on Uber, we actually get this setup. We had this green opening range candle here that was testing our flip high and it respected it. And our second candle here, respected that level, too. Price didn't break through this level. And although just with only a few points, it actually moved in the opposite direction of this green opening range candle. I would have preferred a little bit lower close here to be totally sure, but this is still a great setup. So, this is a confirmed silent candle and remember a silent candle tells us two things. It tells us that this resistance level is strong, that we can trust it, and it tells us the direction of the next candle. So, what I'm going to do here is to place a limit order to go short here at the low of the silent candle at 77.78 bucks. If the price would move down to this level again, I would be very surprised if it didn't push even lower. So, I'm placing a limit order to go short here at 77.78 bucks. I will buy 100 stocks. I will place the stop loss here slightly above the high at 78.5 bucks. So that's going to make a 72 bucks stop loss. And then I'm going to place the target profit at the range low at 75.36 bucks which is 242 bucks. So that's a riskreward ratio of somewhere between 1 to four or 1 to three. So let's see what happens. Okay guys, the price just reached our level. We are in our short trade. It's now 10:07. So, it's 37 minutes since the market open. I kind of like the look of this trade. Um, let's see how it plays out. Okay, guys. This looks uh really good. It's now 10:22. We've been in our trade for about 15 minutes and uh we have already reached like half or one/ird of the target profit. And at this point, I would personally like to secure a part of the win. So, I'm actually going to move the stop loss to secure a part of that win. I'm going to move the stop loss down here to 77.1 where we opened today. So, that means that at a minimum, we have made 66 bucks today. But, let's see if we can go even lower. Okay guys, it's looking good. I'm now on the 1 minute time frame. It's now 10:40. So, it's uh 70 minutes since the market open. And this is looking even better. And you know what? Again, I want to move the stop loss a little bit. So, I will move it from 77.1 bucks down to 76.5, just slightly above this low here. So, that means that we have secured a 126 bucks win today. Okay guys, here we go. It's looking even better. I'm going to actually move the stop loss a third time. I'm going to move it to the local high here at 76.07, meaning that we have secured a 169 bucks win. We are actually really, really close to reaching the target profit here. I mean, this looks really bearish. Let's see what happens. There we go. We hit our target profit. This is a great win. So, that's that. I'm happy we got a trade today. This is a strategy that doesn't set up every morning, so you need to run it on a few different stocks. I would say on average it sets up weekly, bi-weekly, something like that. So, in order to trade it every day, you need to run it on a few different stocks. Again, you need to do some research on the stock that you want to trade. It's no certainty that this specific strategy works on your specific stock. So, do your research, draw those lines, follow the two rules, and trade the three stick candle formation. Anyway, I'm going to wrap up this video now. Thank you for watching and uh as always good luck with your trading and I will see you in the next video. By the way guys um please follow me on X. You will find me posting some really interesting statistics there that I use myself in my day trading. It might give you some ideas as