TRADING JUMP 10 INDEX MADE EASY

Hello guys, this is Aubai FX Trading Academy and welcome once again to my YouTube channel where we do the top down analysis of different financial assets and today I'm going to be looking at the derivatic index jump 10 index and as you all know I do my top down analysis using pure price action trading strategy and I'm currently on the monthly ly time frame of this particular index. So um for those that have been following me, what we basically try to do on the monthly time frame is to get our directional bias. And how do we get to do this? Mainly looking at this chart, we can see that the market has been making a series of lower lows and lower highs. However, we look at this section of the chart, we can see that something interesting happened. So, if I go to the line graph for us to see it properly, we can see that the market made a low. So, I'm only looking at a significant low and high. So the market made a low, made a lower high, lower low, lower high, lower low, then played a bit here, but still ended up giving us a lower high, but couldn't go down further down to give us what? A lower low. So in other words, we had like the market changing structure here to give us what? Like a higher low. In other words, this lower high was taken out. This lower high was taken out and the market gave us a new high. But instead of coming down to give us it gave us a new high then give us a give us a higher low. But instead of going upwards to give us a higher high, the market broke down to give us lower low and then a lower high, a lower low. So by so doing, the market continued in its downtrend until most recently where the market took out this lower high to give us a new high. So if I'm to go back to the candlestick I'm to go back to the candlestick chart I can go through this again. So we had like a low a lower lower high a lower low high a lower low. Then the market made a lower high but failed to give us a lower low. So instead it gave us a higher low a higher high. It gave us a higher low here. Instead of giving us a new higher high, it ended up breaking down to give us what? A lower high. A lower low. A lower high. Lower low. And now the market has just given us a new higher high by taking out this what? Higher low or rather this lower high to give us what? A new higher high. So I wouldn't want us for those that are not conversant with all that I've been saying. [clears throat] I wouldn't want us to confuse ourself with all I've just said. I'll be dropping a new video this week on explanation of market structure. But just to go to what we try to achieve on those monthly charts is a directional bias. Now market structure most recently is we had a lower high lower low. Now the market had taken out this lower high because supposed to give us like a new lower high then a new lower low but now we have like a higher high and this month of um November had shown that price is doing a retracement. So to answer our question, directional bias is currently bearish because not because the market is in a downtrend, but because sellers are currently trying to push price downwards. So the question is where do we think price is retracing to? That's a question that we cannot answer or that we hope to answer as we go on with our analysis. So the next thing I get to do, having gotten my directional bias to be downwards because of the presence of this big bearish candle forming since the beginning of this month, then we go to the weekly time frame. On the weekly time frame, we try to first of all confirm our directional bias and then we try to see if there's an immediate um chart pattern that we can work with. Now, how do we confirm our directional bias? Come to zoom out. You can see that there's um there's a candlestick pattern here. Now, what I just mapped out is what we call an evening star is a strong bearish reversal chart pattern. So, this is a combination of these three candles where you have like a bullish candle, a dogey candle, and a bearish a big bearish candle. And of course we can see that even after the formation of this candlestick pattern then you can see um the followup candle is bearish. So confirming our directional bias that price is currently retracing. So another thing I can quickly do here is where do I think price is retracing to the most immediate um support level would be this point and so I can use this opportunity to add other levels that could act as both immediate and future key zones. So and do this and place this here. So remember from the monthly time frame we saw that the market has made a new high. So if this market were to continue were to continue upwards then we can be um looking to target this resistance zone and then but for now where do we think price is retracing to? I would say the most immediate level would be this zone. Then another thing that I can do here would be to zoom in and include my trend line. Of course, for those that have been following my analysis, I use a trend line support and resistance as well as a Fibonacci retracement to mostly for my analysis. So, this would also be like a good guide this trend line. And now I have a support um zone draw all mapped out. So the next thing will be for me to go to the much lower time frame. So if I even to look at this, you can see the downward movement of price. This is the lower high that was taken out and of course this is the price doing its retracement like we predicted. So if we go to the daily time frame on the daily time frame I can make an adjustment of this and then I can now add my Fibonacci retracement to from this swing low to where price is currently retracing from. And we can see the accuracy of this in the sense that without drawing my fib zone, there's what I call the Fibonacci retracement coding zone, which is the zone between the 50% and 61.8%. So even before I draw this fib zone, we can see that this particular um golden zone as I have tagged it is correlating or coinciding with the support zone that I had drawn from the weekly time frame. So things like this gives me confidence that price is going to retrace into the zone and would likely be rejected. Now let me quickly explain something here. Why do I feel like this zone is going to be very important? First of all, for those who depend on only trend line, when they get like a little hint here that price wants to go up, when it gets to this trend line, they can start like likely start pumping in buys and then would push back below beneath this um trend line. So a lot of people would close their of course because their stop losses will be be would be beyond this trend line they will be taking likely to be they're likely to be taken out of the trade and then a lot of people start pumping in trades. So when the trade when price gets into this zone there will be possible a strong probability that price is going to continue in it direction. Remember that we saw that the direction of price it's bullish in the on the right from the monthly time frame but that price is only doing a retracement. So this just as I predicted from the weekly time frame would be the destination where price is likely going to retrace into. So but because each candlestick here on this daily chart takes a whole day to form. So we still have like a good space if we were to engage in the selling of this asset because we said our immediate directional bias is what bearish. So that means we'll be looking for sales until price gets into the zone because it's all about possible destinations. Now having that in mind the question would now arise how do we take advantage of this setup. Now we have our trend line with two touches. we have our Fibonacci retracement um to showing us a possible um destination or the most likely destination of this price retracing downwards. So what do we now do to this particular setup? So if I go to the line graph, there's another thing I would like to draw attention to and that's the fact that we have what a head and shoulder pattern on this daily time frame. So if you're asking me how I'll be taking this area as the head. This would be the left shoulder and then this would be what the right shoulder and then of course this would be what the neckline. So if we go back to the candlestick chart we can see that it all makes sense. So this would be what the neckline and we can see that price has already taken out what neckline. We saw something different from the weekly time frame. So this is another chart pattern that we can work with. So candlestick pattern from the weekly time frame. So we can see a clear chart pattern that I can work with. So if I'm to take advantage of this setup, I can say okay because this is the daily time frame. If there's a pull little pull back back to this neckline, then I can start looking for what selling opportunities because I know that there's still space for price to come down into this area. So let's go to the H4 time frame to see the setup more. So I believe it is much clearer now. So if I'm even if I were able to take this out for us to concentrate on what was happening on the H4, it is even clear that price on the H4 already did like a little pull back into this neckline. So price broke beneath this neckline did a little pull back and have start coming down. So what do we do? The um setup is still very very viable in the sense that all we need to do would be to wait for price to pull up. For those of us that um use other blocks, you can even take this zone as your order block. So once price does like a retracement into the zone then you can place your sell trades. So let's try to refine this trade on the 1 hour time frame. So if I go to the 1 hour time frame, let's see what this particular setup is. So now I'm using like an H4 um order block. If price pulls into this place, I can start looking for sell opportunities with my stop loss just above this place. So let's refine this trade on the H1 time frame. So even on the H1 time frame, we are seeing head and shoulder pattern. So everything is pointing that price is going to go downward. So this is left shoulder, the head and the right shoulder. So if I go back to the candlestick chart, so somebody might decide to just wait here at this rejection zone. Another person might choose to use this order block, this H1 order block. So whichever one whatever whichever one the decision would be that price would should retrace into this zone for us to get the best possible um opportunity to sell this trade. And like I said, this trend line would likely give a reaction to pull people into the market to start buying. But there's going to be a strong pos there's a strong probability that this will be used as a liquidity zone for price to come down to this um strong support zone all the way from the monthly time frame before the market would embark on its what bullish journey. So for those of us that are into the trading of deriv synthetic indices I haven't dropped a video on um the synthetic indices for a while now. So I decided to do this. I'm going to be dropping another video for forex currency pair. So for weekly outlook on one or two forex currency pair as a follow up um to this particular video but because I haven't done this for the synthetic indices for a while. So I decided to drop this even at this late hour on Sunday evening. So if you're into the trading of this for this um you can you can compare this with your analysis and drop your thoughts in the comment section. Also don't forget to like and share this video. And if you're coming across the channel for the first time and you believe you've gotten anything of value of watching this video, do hit on the subscribe button for sub so you'll be notified when subsequent videos like this are dropped on the channel. So thank you for watching this video to the end and thank you for always supporting this channel. Do have a fruitful trading week and cheers.