Trading में इस फॉर्मला से 6 महीने में profitable? कैसे? | @TanishaGarg101 | Josh Talks Hindi
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Why 2.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✕ Roughly ZERO per-trade edge (+0.03R) — real costs eat whatever is there
- ✕ Payoff 0.98 — the average winner is SMALLER than the average loser
- ✕ 4 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2020, 2022, 2026) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -52% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: RSI-based mean reversion strategy using Camarilla pivot points (S2/S4 buy levels, R2/R4 sell levels) on 15-min NIFTY with RSI direction filter (40 lower band for buys, 60 upper band for sells). Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 6,881 trades, win 52%, payoff 0.98, expectancy +0.03R/trade (avg +0.17%/trade).
This is essentially breakeven. The payoff ratio is thin. Reasonably consistent (56% of years positive).
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)
Tracking since 2026-08-21 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -14% | -2% | -3% | +2% | +4% | +3% | +4% | -9% | -17% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 476 | 51% | -0.02R | +0.04% |
| 2019 | 858 | 54% | +0.08R | +0.45% |
| 2020 | 721 | 48% | -0.05R | +0.21% |
| 2021 | 586 | 66% | +0.26R | +1.76% |
| 2022 | 1058 | 50% | -0.01R | -0.15% |
| 2023 | 697 | 56% | +0.11R | +0.21% |
| 2024 | 806 | 51% | +0.01R | -0.08% |
| 2025 | 1105 | 51% | +0.01R | -0.36% |
| 2026 | 574 | 47% | -0.02R | +0.05% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 50 | 68% | +2.9% | +16% | +144% | +58% |
| 2 | ████████ | 32 | 56% | +0.2% | +12% | +7% | +49% |
| 3 | ████████ | 51 | 41% | -1.5% | +14% | -77% | +45% |
| 4 | ████████ | 32 | 53% | +0.6% | +26% | +18% | +38% |
| 5 | ████████ | 21 | 48% | +0.4% | +16% | +9% | +33% |
| 6 | ████████ | 39 | 64% | +2.1% | +26% | +82% | +32% |
| 7 | ████████ | 32 | 66% | +3.6% | +21% | +114% | +30% |
| 8 | KEI free peek | 31 | 65% | +2.5% | +16% | +77% | +30% |
| 9 | ████████ | 53 | 68% | +1.6% | +13% | +82% | +27% |
| 10 | ████████ | 40 | 57% | +1.4% | +19% | +55% | +27% |
| 11 | ████████ | 47 | 51% | +0.1% | +11% | +4% | +26% |
| 12 | ████████ | 41 | 46% | -1.5% | +26% | -63% | +26% |
| 13 | ████████ | 51 | 53% | +0.7% | +12% | +37% | +22% |
| 14 | ████████ | 44 | 64% | +2.3% | +20% | +99% | +20% |
| 15 | ████████ | 47 | 55% | +1.0% | +15% | +47% | +19% |
| 16 | ████████ | 43 | 37% | -2.7% | +8% | -116% | +19% |
| 17 | ████████ | 42 | 62% | +2.3% | +19% | +95% | +18% |
| 18 | ████████ | 42 | 55% | +0.3% | +15% | +11% | +18% |
| 19 | ████████ | 39 | 67% | +1.3% | +9% | +51% | +17% |
| 20 | ████████ | 34 | 62% | +0.2% | +9% | +8% | +16% |
| 21 | ████████ | 60 | 40% | -0.6% | +15% | -37% | -46% |
| 22 | ████████ | 36 | 42% | -2.0% | +15% | -71% | -42% |
| 23 | ████████ | 43 | 51% | +1.2% | +16% | +52% | -42% |
| 24 | ████████ | 42 | 29% | -2.8% | +10% | -116% | -40% |
| 25 | ████████ | 57 | 44% | -1.0% | +9% | -55% | -36% |
| 26 | ████████ | 52 | 40% | -1.7% | +17% | -88% | -31% |
| 27 | ████████ | 43 | 58% | +1.9% | +29% | +82% | -31% |
| 28 | ████████ | 56 | 38% | -1.0% | +14% | -58% | -30% |
| 29 | ████████ | 61 | 54% | -0.4% | +13% | -24% | -26% |
| 30 | ████████ | 53 | 42% | -1.2% | +9% | -61% | -24% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 55 | 60% | +0.19R | +0.25% |
| BANKNIFTY | 47 | 57% | +0.17R | +0.60% |
Full transcript (4451 words)
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