Best Trader in the World Reveals His Exact Strategy LIVE on Charts! — Patrick Nill

This is Patrick Niel. He's a multiple time world trading champion who ranked among the world's [music] best five years in a row. He's nothing like the average trader, and that's exactly why he's a champion. >> I am a a real counter trader. I like to do always the the opposite from the normal people. I I never risk more than 1% in my own portfolio. So, whatever comes, it's it doesn't crash. >> But, his success doesn't come from risk management alone. Protecting his capital keeps him in the game, but the real weapon is his strategy, and it's far simpler than you'd ever expect [music] from a world trading champion. >> You have a a big impulse up, and then you have a range. >> [music] >> And that's a what I am looking. And if this is good zones, then I trade. Here, I have the market profile volume base from the weekly, [music] and there you you can see on the value value area highs and lows. >> In this episode, Patrick reveals his exact strategy live on the chart, and shares his biggest lessons that shaped his career, and explains the one thing every trader needs in order to make it. >> Also for me, I must start from zero, and the important thing is not give up. Only make it step for step, and that's in trading it's the same. >> I'm sitting down with Patrick Niel, multi-time world trading champion. And if you look closely, I'm shaking a little. Patrick, thank you for allowing me the opportunity to interview you. >> Yeah, you're welcome. I'm happy to be here with you, Brent. >> Thank you. I I it. Now, Patrick, I don't want to waste any time. I'm literally jumping in my seat to hear what you do, how you think, and what makes a world champion trader because I want to be one too. So Patrick naturally, the question on everyone's mind is going to be what does a world champion trader do that most traders would never see or think about? >> It's not so complicated complicated what I am doing. I'm only I work much with many trades the whole year, and I'm I'm serious and I make the same all time. That's all. If you you you need need a edge and be calm and and work. And then in in the end of year, you you will be really good. >> So, you say hard work, right, is really what distinguishes world-class or makes a world-class trader. Now, there's a lot of traders who put in very hard work, but not everyone is successful. Is it possible to work hard but in the wrong direction and learn the wrong things? >> Yeah, sure. Yeah. For me, at in the the first year, I had the same problem. You You learn and learn, but you learn 10 things, and what are you trading? Sometimes at least sometimes this, and then you have no no good good results. Sometimes I you you don't really know what are you doing when you when you begin and work hard and with no direction. >> So, direction can help a lot. Now, obviously, there's order flow trading, there's market structure trading. Do you think any of that stuff can work if you put a rule to it, test it, and trade it? >> Perhaps not all all things, but I think there are so many ways. Here in our office, we are five, six traders, and every trader trades different. And there are so many ways, and they they work all. >> Now, when we look at market structure trading, order flow trading, you had mentioned basically a rule, right? Now, does this mean you lean more into mechanical or systematic trading? Or are you more of a discretionary trader where you look at the chart and you figure out what's going on before you take a trade? >> I am totally a discretionary trader. This is uh yeah. You must feel the market a little bit, and you have you you need your rules and your systematic. >> So, Patrick, you mentioned you're a discretionary trader. You have to feel the market. Now, when you sit down for the trading day, what are you trying to understand first? >> For me, it's I use the PBD models from trade trader traders from Thomas, and so you don't need so much uh before you begin trading. I I am looking to to see where the big big money is and where the the yeah, the big traders are, and then then I search my structures, and then I begin trading. >> Now, Patrick, I'll be honest. I don't know what the PBD model is. >> Yeah, the if you have a big P, we mean I mean it's you have a big impulse up, and then you have a range. And that's what I am looking. And if this is at at good zones, then I trade. And the B is you have impulse down and a range. >> Now, for the impulse up and then the range, impulse down, range, this happens in like every market. What part of that move, that structure, is most important to you? >> The move. And and the and what was it before them before in the last days. And you see what was the last days and then you have an big impulse and then you can interpret many things in it. >> So, you might trade the impulse up or the impulse down as well? >> No, I I trade after the impulse. You have the impulse and and the range and there I wait to if it goes further up or down. That's the things or or I trade the range if if the range is good. You can always play ping pong in the range till it goes out. And there you have you you have been you need your rules but then then you can trade it. >> Awesome. And I'm excited to learn how you do that or basically what you look for when we get to the chart. But, you know what, Patrick, um if you're comfortable going on to the chart, I would love to go on there with you and talk some more trading. >> Yeah. That's like my chart looks. I make for example the the DAX from the last last some days. And yeah, that's it was good days for me because you see here for example you have a big impulse. And if you I look like this, you have here a a range. And after the range goes some days, you have they try to break up break out, come down, and the range is there. And this is my play play grass playroom. And perhaps man, it goes down to to here. I try to find or to find an entry to go another time long. Let's And if you go into the range, I search here a point to go down. That's the the things I I look or or if you if you have here, we have another big impulse. Oh, it was Trump, but it it works also there. I don't I don't like the the way the way to trade at the moment because Trump is the biggest indicator, but it works. Yeah, if you see here, you have another impulse and a range after it. And and here I I search There are my my points where where I am on the on the on the on the screens and I I try to to find some trades because um that's really good. And now at the moment it's nothing. For me, I am waiting till we are up here on the on the old zone or on the as a up up here. No, here I I search for a short trade and here for a long trade. And what I am also looking here I have the market profile volume based from uh the weekly. And there you you can see on the uh on the value value area highs and lows. They are so important. And you can search your trades always on here here and here. It's not always the same way. I'm sure you need the the footprint to search the right entries and so on. But then you have a place where you have to look where you can look it's if it's interesting or not. >> I have a quick question. What does the volume profile tell you? It It help you read the market. What kind of information does this help you figure out? >> There are some things there you you can see on the on the style of the volume profile or market it's market profile. Um you can you can't read the market if if big players are in the market, if it if if it goes fast, if it's you you see a little bit where the market wants to go and where are the the the ways when it goes faster and slower. Here if you are between on the moment if you are if you are here between this this areas, uh wrong chart. He here for example. Now we are here between and here are all in freedom. There is nothing. But if we go down here, it goes faster. And and that can you see really easy and fast with the market profile. It's not exact and it's not the holy grail, but you can you can see where all is in in any freedom, all are satisfied and where where not. And that helps me to to see and in some seconds or minutes if it's good to trade or if I if perhaps I will not. But uh for for the trade I use for sure the I take the 15 minutes chart because I I like it. And when the trade comes uh then I look to the footprint and the the order flow. Not every time, but when I am on the screens I sure I look on it. >> For the audience, Patrick, really we're looking for range impulse range like you mentioned. And this is pretty easy for you to find on the price chart, right? You find big impulse up range or big big impulse down range. And this helps you with your countertrend trading style. >> And if you if the impulse and the range is on the same level, then the market profile it's even better. If we have look here, I don't 25. Yeah, here also. It's all It's here. It's the right level to to the right value area high. And that helps me to interpret all. If I use the signal or not. That's But that's is uh many years of experience then you you you know sometimes if you should take the trade or leave it. >> Right. And then once you've got these levels marked and you have an idea of here's where our key reaction zones, our key entries are, then you dial down into the footprint and order flow to try to get the best entry? >> Not every time because I'm often not in front of the screens. But um you get better bet the trading is better if you do it, yeah. It's more exact in the footprint and in the order book. But I am sometimes I'm too lazy because or I am not so good in reading the the order book then, for example, search. >> Now, Patrick, this style of trading, this is more going to be trades that are held maybe for a longer period of time. Is that right? >> Yes. At least normally I I think one day in the in the middle or 4 hours to 3 days. >> 4 hours to 3 days. And a lot of traders, what they want to do, they want to scalp or do a ton of day trades. Do you think it's important to let the market play out in favor of your idea rather than try to force all this stuff with scalping and things like that? >> Yeah, you can earn more money if you scalp and have 100 trades a day. I have a friend, he makes all day about 100 days and 100 trades and he has his last lost day was 3 day 3 years ago. But for sure, if If 100 trades, it's it's more easy to get in in profit profitable. When I have here five trades a day or three, it's possible all all five day trades are losses. That's normal. And for him, if you have 100 trades, he's most time positive. I think so. Many people wants to scalp because they they are faster in the profit. But it's complicated. >> Yeah. So, would you consider what you do here? It's not rocket science, right? >> That's no, no, it's not at all, yeah. It's it's really only our PVD models. I always say they are in public. You can you can find it in the we made also Tom made learned it in his online coaches. Um it's it's not so complicated. It's a little bit complicated how to use it. There are better ways and and worse ways, but it's that everybody can learn it. Perhaps perhaps not so in perfection, but you don't need it if it's not important if you have some percent more in the year or less. You must be profitable. That's the main thing. >> Now, Patrick, you've got a system here. So, do you think trading psychology plays a role in any of this? >> Sure, it's really important because if you if you don't feel good, it you you don't use your uh your rules then you you you you you use not every trade. It's it's yeah, sure. Traders psy- psychology, it's really important. For me, it's I'm a calm man. It's perhaps it's more easy, but I see it on the students, they have real problems with it, yeah. >> And you mentioned naturally being calm. Is there any time where you do maybe feel some pressure or disappointed? And if you do, how do you overcome that? >> If it's too much, I close the markets and go out. And the way what I'm doing if if it's too too too bad, too strong, I have childrens, I I go out with them. It's it's the best way for me to relax and next day it's a next day and a new begin and then then it goes goes right right. >> Awesome. You know, Patrick, I'm I'm curious now, too. So, it's pretty clear the method you're using to find entries. Now, once you actually take a trade, where are you thinking about profit target and where are you thinking about stop loss? >> They are different things. If you have impulse like that, normally the profit target is under the impulse. Most time it goes back to the to the beginning. And and the stop, yeah, there are different different rules. You can you can do it over the zone or in the middle or you you search something in the back where you can where it's good. There are different points where you can make the stop. But sure, you must do it in the beginning because if you if you have no stop loss, you can you don't know how big the position should be. You you need it. You need You need it clear where you how much risk you give how much points. And it's also in my trading it's not every time the same. >> [snorts] >> Sometimes I do it over the zone or over the top or in the middle or I look where where the volume was in the last last candles. There are different things. But you must be clear. >> And Patrick then you had mentioned the 1% risk rule then. Now the stop loss that is how you figure out how much risk to take on. >> How much positions to you can take that you have you have you can fit your your risk management. >> Right. And is there ever a moment where where you would put your stop loss where the risk when we try to approach risk where we would say no, I'm not taking this trade even though the entry looks good. >> Yeah, sure. Yeah, sometimes. But that's an experience. If you Sometimes there is something in the market and you are you feel well, it's it's perhaps not the way right day something is you don't know exactly what's but it's it's not something is in the market and you you you miss the trade. >> Regarding profit target, is this something you have planned for a specific reward to risk or do you manage the trade and decide when to take profit? >> Not every time because in on my swing the best results I have when I don't manage the trade and and let it like in the beginning of the trade. But perhaps here when we go to the last days Mhm. Let's Let's look here. We go out on the market, make a pullback. Let's Let's say we go here short. And And here is our profit target. Only for example. Then it's I don't want to go into minus if we if we reach so much. And sure, when I'm in front of the screens, I manage the trade and Uh perhaps I don't know if I would be in the trades like like now. I I think I would be out at least here. But it's it's not every time good if you manage the trade. >> Right. And you found success doing this with working with great traders yourself and with experience, right? Now, for a trader who would want to try this same style, this same strategy, and learn from you, what is the best starting point for them? >> It's not me, but Tom me and Thomas, we we make an an academy and then then Then he helps everybody that he he understand the rules behind why he should do it. But on your own, it's it's really difficult to to learn that stuff all. >> And then if I came to you right now and I said Patrick, I want to learn PBD and I want to trade like you. What's the number one mistake you would tell me to avoid? >> I would say learn and learn learn learn it good and and try it and and then it it would works. I hope so. But there's no really number one mistake. It's perhaps you you you understand not all rules. Sure, yeah, then then yes, but it's not so complicated the PPD. >> And Patrick, outside of this strategy and the method that you're using, do you also look for news, fundamentals? Is there anything else that you might bring into your ideas? >> I try to be not in the market and when big news come are coming for sure, yeah. But I don't interpret them because it's too much work to interpret all news. We have one person in our community or in our team, he he makes that all for us and interprets all and and helps us to understand all. But um I I prefer to to be not in the market uh when the when the big big decisions come. >> And you know, Patrick, do you We know there's two main styles of trading. Technicals and fundamentals, right? This is the main two analysis methods. Do you think you can just focus on technicals, ignore the fundamentals, and be successful? >> Sure, you can. Look on the docks. When you when you see that, there are the rules from the last weeks. It's it's crazy, but this value area high comes two weeks ago. And where do we where does the mark stop? On the very value area high. Even it's fundamental it was a the peace peace peace Iran and and Trump. Yeah, but the technical things are they are working, yeah. Sure. Sometimes you don't feel good because I I don't like to work when big decisions are coming. >> Patrick, thank you so much for hopping on chart, showing us what you do, the PBD method. I know it's really inspiring for new traders to see someone who trades at your level and isn't doing Albert Einstein level mathematics to figure it out. >> [laughter] >> So, um I know people are going to appreciate that and thank you. There's a couple more questions I wanted to ask you. What is one thing that beginner traders think is important but that you mostly ignore? >> To know and understand all. The the most almost all beginners I am talking to, they think they must they must knew all about stock exchange change, but it's not it's not every time good to know and understand all things. Because then you don't know what are you doing and you you are lost in the in 20 30 trading strategies. >> Yeah, you mentioned knowing all things and I think we both know all the information in the markets, it's not really possible to know it all, right? So, would you say traders should be focused on finding pieces of information, a strategy that works for them, has an edge, and not try to know and learn as much as possible? >> And for me, you you you must know your we call it trader DNA. And it's it means um I am a a real counter trader. I like to to to do always the the opposite from the normal people. I like it. But there there are so many search in our team. He's a very good uh scalper, and he makes that's too much for me. And I'm a slow trader. And you must find your way what what are you feeling good with? >> Now, Patrick, you trade inside the Robbins World Cup, as well as your own portfolio, right? What is the difference between trading in a high-stakes competition like that and trading your own money? >> Oh, there are many differences. My I'm I'm very serious with my own money, because I have only one time my money. And uh competition, you need at least one or 200% that you are that you are you will be seen. And so, you have to to make more risk in the in the competition. And on my own portfolio, I have risk management, so I have a risk from 0.2% perhaps, like this. Only only very small risk, because yeah, I have um my trading style I have a trading um a win rate, sorry, from 50-60%, and then sometimes I have 10-20 losses after each other. And uh in my own portfolio, I don't want to have so much drawdown. But in the competition, you have risk management, you risk two, three percent per trade sometimes. And so you you want to run very fast there. >> Now, you would never trade like that with your own money. Is basically what you're saying? >> your own money, but it's it's not the big money. >> Now, you mentioned 10, 20 losses in a row. You never want to take that with your own personal capital. So, this begs the question, what risk management rule do you think has saved you the most money throughout your trading career? >> I I never risk more than 1% in my own portfolio. So, whatever comes, it's it doesn't crash you. Sure, I have sometimes uh I am not so that it's not so that I never break the rule. But it was hard days. There were two, three three times in my life, I break the rule and then I always lost. >> Now, was there a lesson that came along the way before you realized "Okay this rule that I have of 1%, I need to start doing this." >> I had one worst trade in my life and after this, I thought, "Okay, I must be I must use the rule every time because it's there are things on you never think. For me, it was in during COVID, there I I'm a I'm a oil trader. And I like to trade oil. And now we are in the war, we were over 120. And during COVID, we were at 40, 30. Then we are falling down to 20. And when we fall down to if to know 15, 13. I We thought, "Hey, um oil is so cheap, we must buy very much." Because yeah, what can happen? We can fall down to seven, eight? But uh they must produce this and we all drive cars and so we need oil. And the same day it falls down to eight. Yeah, then we bought more. We bought more. And thought we are the richest man. And then it falls down to five. And then we closed the trade with real much um loss. And the oil go goes down to minus 42. It goes into minus. They pay you money if you if you buy oil. And that would crash all our accounts. And we didn't know that it's possible that oil can go into minus. We thought the the maximum risk is go go back to zero. And that would be okay, but minus 40 and we have many contracts there. And so I thought, "Hey, the rules are very important." Also when you sometimes think it's better to to do other things. >> Patrick, to be fair, it's not supposed to go below zero. So, I think it's the first time that's ever happened. And I can't believe you were trading it. Now, during that, you know, bad trade that happened, was there any other lesson that you learned about the markets? >> It's really only the risk management because it can happen on the stock exchange things you never thought before and that's so important for me and every time now I think for Yeah, it's good that that I was there. >> What separates or what usually separates your best trading days from your worst ones? >> It's not much. My worst ones are most time if I'm in my inner not really good and then comes two lost trades and then I then one comes to the other. And um yeah, there is not really a difference as a that's the point when I can't trade if I'm nervous or in a in my inner not good. >> Now what would you tell a trader who has some serious skill? They're good but they keep destroying their progress. >> Write it down and make a trading journal and have a real good look what is good and what is not good and then push the good things and learn and make it even a little bit better and forget the the bad things. Only trade the good things. >> And Patrick, do you do any back testing? >> In my old life now when I started sure yeah. It's it's important to know what what you like, what is good. Back back testing is really good and if you have new strategies also as a mine sometimes I test something and without back testing it's you don't know what you're in you're blind. Most time sometimes I also test in the real market with with less money with a little bit money but testing is really important. Without testing you don't know where you are. >> So would you Do you trade a strategy without back testing it first? >> I must be honest. Yes, sure. I would I would do, yeah. But, when when when I do it with with only less money. Yeah, but I need to I love it to to test it with real money because it feels better. If testing without money, it's it's not real. And if you test with a little bit money, yeah, the losses are not so high and the feeling is great. If you have your pizza in the evening with a new strategy, it's it's not bad. >> So, Patrick, when when you did do a lot of back testing, was there anything important? What was most important that you wanted to see in a back test? >> I When I make a back back test, then I want to see if it works 5 years ago because there are so many strategies they work for some months and then they are crushed. And so, the the consistent I want consistency. I want to see when I make back tests. Not the the result if it's better or not so good. I want to see the consistency. >> And is there any specific way that you measure consistency? >> It's only the the No, no, not really. The drawdown, sure. I I don't want so drawdowns who are bigger than 10%. And if if the drawdown is bigger than 20%, it's a that strategy is nothing for me because that's too too much. >> So, then when looking at a strategy and consistency, really really keeping the drawdown in check is probably the most important part. The profitability can come after. >> You must you must every time you must have a look if you have a drawdown from 20% you need profit of 25% to be on zero. And if you have a drawdown from 50% you need 100% to be break even. And so you must find your way where it's okay with a drawdown or not. And we we always say 20% is the maximum you can you can live. >> And Patrick, you've been in a 20% drawdown before, right? You've had a 20% drawdown before? >> Yes, sure. Yeah. In the in the world championship, yes. In the my private account, it's long time ago, yeah. >> And how do you recover from something like like that? >> Trade trade the same way and it was okay. And that's the the main thing you you it's not every time good to change if you are in the trade drawdown. You but that's not that's only possible if you know your strategy really really good. If you are not not sure with all or not then then you change down something and the the drawdown go gets even bigger. >> So for new traders to Patrick who are really going to appreciate this interview, is there any secret advice? One thing that you would tell these guys that they can learn from a world champion. >> There is no holy grail in the in the trading business. You must really find your own way and trust uh almost nobody because there is so so much bull in the markets. And everybody tells you he has he knows all and he is the best. It's not true. Find your own way and be calm and trade. That's all. >> And you know what, Patrick? I I agree even though you have much more experience than I do. Um now, for these new traders, how do they know if they're making progress? >> If the losses are not so big. No, it's it's difficult if you don't know if you make the the trading right or wrong, yeah. It's It comes with the time. You must make reviews, look if you you make you you are you you are in the in the rules, if you make all right. But it comes. >> Patrick, if there's a Before we end this interview, if there's anything else you wanted to share, please feel free. >> One interview from uh what's what's the actor of Mission Impossible? It's the >> Tom Cruise. >> Tom Cruise, yeah. I saw I saw interview from him and I love this interview you because they said, "How it's possible that you are so cool so the [snorts] best man of the world, so and your mindset and all." And then he said, "Ah, you must know, I was when I was born, I I can't cr- scramble. And then I learned uh scramble, and after that I can scramble, I learned walking. And after After I walk, I learned jogging. After I jog, I learned running. And when I can run, I learned sprinting. And after that, sometimes I spring out of a uh airplane or jump over cliffs. And but uh when also for me, I must start from zero and the important thing is not give up. Only make it step for step. And that's in trading, it's the same. All people are thinking you you're the best trader of the world after 2 months and after some videos. And that's not true. You must learn and and every time you must take the next step. And that's important. >> Patrick, thank you so much. Um Tom Cruise interview, I'm going to have to watch it. Uh >> Yeah, please. It's so so so cool. This big man says, "Hey, I can't nothing and I must learn all one after the other." >> Everyone is human, right? >> Yeah. >> And we all got to learn and make mistakes, even though people some people don't want to admit it. Right? Well, Patrick, it's been an absolute pleasure. Uh thank you so much for taking the time to come on here. Show us what you look at on the chart and explain how you see markets, what you ignore, what you try to focus on, and the really just the approach that you used to get to where you are now, which is just stay focused and committed. Thank you for being on the podcast. I really appreciate it. IQ Capital you can start your first challenge for as little as $1. Check the link in the description below. Terms and conditions do apply. And I hope you enjoyed watching evidence and lessons from a world champion. See you later, IQ community.