Titan Condor: Small SL, Big Reward — 1% Every Week
Why 2.5/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✓ Net +3219.2% on capital over the tested window (2015-01-09 → 2026-06-08, 393 trades)
- ✕ Wins 87% of the time — but the average loss (₹39,337) is 2.5× the average win (₹15,439). Classic short-premium shape: many small wins, rare big hits
- ✕ Worst single trade ₹-537,037 — one bad move erases ~35 average wins
- ✕ Max drawdown -537% along the way — deep for a 'low-risk' pitch
- ✕ Short sample (393 trades over 12 months) with no true market crash in the window — the tail event that hurts option sellers most is untested
Verdict
Real option backtest. Reconstructed on actual NIFTY option premiums (2015-01-09 → 2026-06-08, 393 weekly trades) — legs: sell 10x CE+400 + sell 10x PE-400 + buy 1x CE+500 + buy 1x PE-500, with real multi-leg costs.
Net +3219.2% on ₹1L (+282.1%/yr over 11.4 years) (positive), win 87%, avg win ₹15,439 / avg loss ₹-39,337 (avg loss BIGGER than avg win), max drawdown -537% (worst week ₹-537,037). High win-rate is the normal face of short options; the drawdown and the negative skew are the real risk that a short 'backtest' window hides.
Real premiums: minute-level history resampled to daily closes (2015–2026; monthly contracts before 2019 — weeklies didn't exist).
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
Month by month (real NIFTY option premiums · net P/L after costs, on ₹1,00,000)
| Month | Trades | Win % | Net P/L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 38 | 87% | ₹+418,320 |
| 2016 | 21 | 76% | ₹-144,660 |
| 2017 | 3 | 100% | ₹+17,322 |
| 2018 | 18 | 94% | ₹+93,219 |
| 2019 | 9 | 89% | ₹+32,748 |
| 2020 | 33 | 91% | ₹+388,009 |
| 2021 | 51 | 90% | ₹+505,095 |
| 2022 | 50 | 84% | ₹+492,735 |
| 2023 | 51 | 90% | ₹+184,459 |
| 2024 | 47 | 85% | ₹-17,677 |
| 2025 | 51 | 82% | ₹+608,206 |
| 2026 | 21 | 86% | ₹+641,421 |
Full transcript (3410 words)
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