I Tested This VWAP + MACD Strategy for 6 Years: 3,856% Gains? — backtested on Indian market data | FakeTrades
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I Tested This VWAP + MACD Strategy for 6 Years: 3,856% Gains?

Quant Tactics · watch on YouTube ↗
Analysed 01 Aug 2026, 02:44 PM IST
★★½☆☆ 2.5 / 5
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Heads up: this strategy was originally created for the crypto market. We applied the exact same logic to Indian stocks & indices and the backtest completed successfully — every result below is on Indian market data.

Why 2.5/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)

  • A real but modest per-trade edge: +0.08R across 7,678 trades
  • Only 35% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
  • 4 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2024, 2025, 2026) — the edge is regime-dependent
  • Max drawdown -24% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
  • Most of the big total return is compounding in a rising market (beta) — the per-trade edge above is what would survive a different regime

Detected components (auto-read from transcript)

Futures EMAVWAPRSIMACDATRVolume

Claims it makes (quotes pulled from the transcript)

  • “Win rate, 25.6%.”
  • “Total return, 3,856%.”
  • “Buy and hold across the same eight pairs returned 1,099% over the same period.”
  • “324 long trades produced roughly 2,607% profit.”

Verdict

Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: VWAP + MACD momentum breakout strategy on crypto futures with 200-EMA trend filter, tested on BTC/ETH and 6 major alts over 6 years on 4H candles. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 7,678 trades, win 35%, payoff 2.26, expectancy +0.08R/trade (avg +0.26%/trade).

This is a marginal edge. Reasonably consistent (56% of years positive).

Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.

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🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)

Tracking since 2026-07-22 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.

Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)

₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)

Return+74.6%
CAGR+7.3%
Max drawdown-24.0%
Trades845 · 274 won
₹200,000 → ₹349,227  ·  2018-07-23 → 2026-06-08
201820192020202120222023202420252026
-6%+8%+59%+16%-5%+18%-5%-10%-4%

Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.

Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)

YearTradesWin %ExpectancyAvg return / trade
201823630% -0.15R -1.21%
201977834% +0.02R -0.05%
202079240% +0.30R +1.94%
2021142938% +0.19R +0.88%
202277334% +0.03R +0.16%
2023114240% +0.29R +1.02%
2024134231% -0.03R -0.44%
202588428% -0.14R -1.07%
202630231% -0.14R -0.75%

Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)

#StockTradesWin%Avg/tradeBestTotal2026
1 ████████ 5036% +6.4% +104% +319% +40%
2 ████████ 5740% +1.9% +27% +109% +26%
3 ████████ 5233% +3.5% +71% +183% +25%
4 ████████ 3126% -0.4% +22% -11% +22%
5 ████████ 6627% +0.3% +28% +21% +20%
6 ████████ 4831% +1.7% +52% +83% +19%
7 ████████ 4633% +0.5% +27% +23% +19%
8 BANDHANBNK free peek 1010% -1.9% +19% -19% +18%
9 ████████ 4139% +2.3% +52% +96% +15%
10 ████████ 6138% +0.7% +24% +40% +15%
11 ████████ 6826% -0.2% +29% -14% +12%
12 ████████ 4749% +5.6% +44% +263% +11%
13 ████████ 5629% -1.3% +9% -71% +11%
14 ████████ 5733% +0.3% +23% +17% +10%
15 ████████ 4628% +1.7% +67% +79% +9%
16 ████████ 3845% +1.4% +26% +52% +8%
17 ████████ 5038% +1.0% +19% +51% +8%
18 ████████ 1937% -0.5% +9% -9% +8%
19 ████████ 5942% +1.1% +24% +68% +7%
20 ████████ 6542% +0.7% +20% +47% +7%
21 ████████ 2832% -1.6% +11% -44% -29%
22 ████████ 5433% -0.7% +16% -37% -23%
23 ████████ 4736% -0.6% +19% -27% -23%
24 ████████ 5133% +0.6% +39% +33% -22%
25 ████████ 7131% +0.2% +25% +12% -21%
26 ████████ 3941% -0.0% +16% -2% -19%
27 ████████ 5125% -1.8% +10% -90% -17%
28 ████████ 4637% -0.3% +21% -15% -17%
29 ████████ 5030% -0.2% +20% -11% -17%
30 ████████ 5034% +0.4% +29% +19% -15%
You can see the numbers — see the names. Unlock every stock in this breakdown and download it as Excel. The worst stock in this table returned -90% under these exact rules — one wrong pick costs many times the unlock.

Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)

IndexTradesWin%Expectancy (R/trade)Avg return/trade
NIFTY8432% +0.00R -0.22%
BANKNIFTY7937% +0.01R -0.09%
Full transcript (507 words)
In this video, I'm testing a VWAP and MACD momentum breakout strategy on Binance Futures, both long and short across 6 years of data. The strategy doesn't react to every signal it sees. Instead, it waits for multiple conditions to line up at the same time. Here's how the entry works. The trigger is price crossing above the rolling VWAP, the volume weighted average price. VWAP represents where most volume has been traded. When price breaks above it, that's an early sign that buyers are stepping in. But a VWAP cross alone is not enough. We also check MACD. It has to have crossed above its signal line within the last five candles, and it still has to be above it right now. That tells us the momentum isn't just starting, it's holding. Then we add three quality filters. The MACD histogram has to be rising, meaning momentum is accelerating. RSI has to be above 50, confirming price is in bullish territory. And volume has to be above its 20-period average, because a breakout without volume behind it is just noise. The final check is the big picture. We only take long trades when price is above the 200-period EMA. That one filter keeps us from fighting the broader trend. Now, the exit. There's no fixed take profit. Trades ride until price closes below the VWAP for two consecutive candles. That requirement stopped the strategy from getting shaken out on temporary dips, and it's what allowed winning trades to hold. The only other exit is a safety net, an ATR-based stop loss at three times the average true range from entry. It's there for the cases where price moves hard before VWAP can confirm a reversal. I tested this on Freqtrade with the following setup. Exchange, Binance Futures. Pairs, eight of the largest market cap cryptocurrencies. Time frame, 4-hour candles. Time range, May 2020 to July 2026, just over 6 years. Max open trades, eight, one slot per pair. Here's what 6 years of data produced. 640 trades total. Win rate, 25.6%. Only one in four trades closes as a winner. But the average winner held for over a month, while the average loser was cut in under 4 days. Total return, 3,856%. Buy and hold across the same eight pairs returned 1,099% over the same period. 324 long trades produced roughly 2,607% profit. 316 short trades added another 1,249%. Neither side was just along for the ride. The full strategy code is available in the description below. You can download it and run the back test yourself. And if you want to learn how to build your own strategies with Freqtrade from scratch, from environment setup all the way to backtesting and running a live system, I have a full course that covers everything step-by-step. Link is also in the description. If you enjoyed this video, make sure to like it, subscribe to the channel, and turn on the notification bell so you don't miss the next strategy breakdown. I'll see you in the next one.

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