Strategy I Regret NOT KNOWING SOONER [For Binary Options] — backtested on Indian market data | FakeTrades
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Strategy I Regret NOT KNOWING SOONER [For Binary Options]

Alice | Binary Guides · watch on YouTube ↗
Analysed 31 Oct 2026, 01:59 AM IST
★★★☆☆ 3.0 / 5
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Heads up: this strategy was originally created for a non-Indian market. We applied the exact same logic to Indian stocks & indices and the backtest completed successfully — every result below is on Indian market data.

Why 3.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)

  • ✓ A real but modest per-trade edge: +0.22R across 240 trades

Detected components (auto-read from transcript)

EMASMA/MAStochastic

Verdict

Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: Fractal + Alligator trend-following strategy with Stochastic and 150-EMA filters for binary options (intraday 2-min expiration). Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 240 trades, win 47%, payoff 1.52, expectancy +0.22R/trade (avg +0.29%/trade).

This is a real edge. Reasonably consistent (88% of years positive).

Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.

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Know someone trading this?

Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)

₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)

Return+18.3%
CAGR+2.4%
Max drawdown-6.4%
Trades233 · 110 won
₹200,000 → ₹236,516  ·  2019-04-18 → 2026-06-08
20192020202120222023202420252026
+1%+5%+4%+2%+3%+1%+1%+1%

Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.

Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)

YearTradesWin %ExpectancyAvg return / trade
20191953% +0.45R +0.51%
20204448% +0.31R +0.66%
20214146% +0.25R +0.35%
20223546% -0.06R +0.11%
20233057% +0.53R +0.40%
20243139% +0.02R -0.01%
20252544% +0.14R +0.02%
20261540% +0.09R +0.08%

Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 117 stocks, incl. 2026)

#StockTradesWin%Avg/tradeBestTotal2026
1 ████████ 425% +0.0% +6% +0% +6%
2 ████████ 450% +1.2% +6% +5% +5%
3 ████████ 1100% +2.6% +3% +3% +3%
4 ████████ 1100% +3.0% +3% +3% +3%
5 ████████ 475% +0.9% +2% +3% +2%
6 ████████ 425% -0.7% +2% -3% +1%
7 ████████ 3100% +4.5% +5% +13% +0%
8 JINDALSTEL free peek 475% +1.9% +5% +8% +0%
9 ████████ 2100% +3.8% +4% +8% +0%
10 ████████ 2100% +3.9% +4% +8% +0%
11 ████████ 2100% +3.7% +4% +7% +0%
12 ████████ 2100% +3.0% +3% +6% +0%
13 ████████ 2100% +2.9% +3% +6% +0%
14 ████████ 1100% +6.2% +6% +6% +0%
15 ████████ 450% +1.2% +7% +5% +0%
16 ████████ 560% +1.0% +3% +5% +0%
17 ████████ 250% +2.3% +6% +5% +0%
18 ████████ 560% +1.0% +3% +5% +0%
19 ████████ 450% +1.1% +7% +5% +0%
20 ████████ 250% +2.7% +8% +5% +0%
21 ████████ 20% -3.0% +-3% -6% -3%
22 ████████ 520% -1.0% +3% -5% -2%
23 ████████ 10% -2.1% +-2% -2% -2%
24 ████████ 425% +0.0% +5% +0% -2%
25 ████████ 250% -0.1% +2% +0% -2%
26 ████████ 250% +0.4% +3% +1% -2%
27 ████████ 250% +2.0% +6% +4% -2%
28 ████████ 540% +0.3% +5% +1% -1%
29 ████████ 30% -2.9% +-3% -9% +0%
30 ████████ 10% -5.6% +-6% -6% +0%
You can see the numbers — see the names. Unlock every stock in this breakdown and download it as Excel. The worst stock in this table returned -9% under these exact rules — one wrong pick costs many times the unlock.

Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Full transcript (3189 words)
in this video I will show you the fractal alligator strategy that my subscribers shared with me and I was shocked by its effectiveness so far this is the best strategy that you've sent me and I opened this deal for 2 200 using the modified version of the strategy so let's wait for this deal to close and proceed to the analysis [Music] now hello fellow traders in this video we will analyze a really effective alligator fractional strategy that a subscriber have sent to me and of course I will tell you all about it what it is and show you the strategy that a subscriber have sent me and then I will tell you how I improved it and of course at the end as usual we're holding a trading session with set strategy but before we start the main part of the video I just wanted to say thank you so much to everyone for your activity on this channel because we are growing really really fast and I'm incredibly happy to see your likes and subscriptions and I'm glad that our YouTube videos and our free course on telegram have helped you to achieve success and speaking of subscriptions if you have not subscribed to this Channel watch this video till the end and if you like this kind of content of course subscribe to this channel so that I can continue to make videos for you and now let's get back to business after this video about alligator indicator that I released two weeks ago one of my subscribers texted me and he showed me the strategy with which he has been working for more than a year and a half and it actually gives him a stable and good result basically his strategy is a combination of alligator and fractional indicator but since we have already analyzed alligator we are not talking about it you can watch one of the previous videos on this topic today we are talking about fractional indicator let's talk about it so it was created by this gentleman his name is Bill Williams and by the way interesting fact about him is that alligator indicator as well as many other popular indicators such as awesome escalator were actually created by Him which is amazing and really cool so let's talk about fractual some more and what is a fraction you may ask this is a simple indicator that allows you to determine price minimum and maximum for a certain period of time in standard variation this is five candlesticks now this is how fraction looks in the chart and if we're talking about a price minimum then a red fraction is going to be formed under the Candlestick that is lower than two candlesticks before and after it and of course in case of a price maximum a green fraction is going to be formed over the Candlestick that it's higher than two candlesticks before and of course after it sounds really easy right but at the same time please be careful when you are trading as the fracture appears on the chart at the time of the opening of fifth Candlestick right but if the price maximum is going to be updated in the end the fraction will simply disappear therefore it's really important for you to wait for the closing of the last fifth Candlestick now getting to the settings of the indicator first things first open the platform and now you're choosing indicator for your chart it's going to be fraction number one so if you look at the chart you can see that the fractions are appearing under and above the chart and in the settings of fractal you can choose the period basically the candlesticks that's supposed to be higher or lower of the current Candlestick to form the fraction we are leaving them as two right here and the second indicator of course is going to be alligator and we are not changing anything here don't touch it don't look at it leave it as it is now getting back to our strategy and first thing that we're going to talk about is we need to find places where we're going to open our deals in this strategy we are trading only according to the trend and if you don't know how to find Trends using alligator indicator you can watch the last video but for now let's shortly talk about it so you would understand for example right here we have clearly an uptrend all the lines of alligator are going up they are not intertwining not connecting and the chart is higher than those lines also this is an example of a downtrend again same thing they are not connected they are going down and the chart is under the alligator charge so lines basically and in moments like this you are not allowed to trade when the lines of alligator are intertwining or getting closer to each other now let's talk about how to trade using this strategy so first of all we need to find a trend and right here we can see at the beginning of an uptrend the alligator lines are not connecting they're going to the same direction up now we are waiting for the Candlestick after which the red fractal is going to be left uh basically the red arrow under the chart you can see it right here but right now we are using the replay mode and that means that we're gonna see this red point right away but in real life it's going to appear only after the second candle so the first Candlestick is going to be closed and the second is going to be opened but you can only start trading when the second Candlestick is gonna close so basically based on the strategy of our subscriber this is the point where we are opening the deal after the second Candlestick is going to be closed and at this point right here we are opening our deal for an uptrend and we are going to use two minute interval two minute expiration time we'll open it and as you can see the deal will be closed in Black of course we can use this strategy with working with downtrend right here we can see the downtrend on the lines of alligator are not connected and they are going to the same direction down and our job is to wait for a fractal of green color with an arrow pointing up we can see it right here again it's a replay mode we would see it only after this Candlestick and we will open the deal after the second Candlestick is closed which we are gonna point it right here and we are opening the deal for two minutes and for the downtrend and of course you see that the deal is going to be closed in Black now let's talk about weak points of this strategy so right here you can see the downtrend the alligator lines are going down and they're not connected we are waiting for our opportunity to open the deal we get it right here the green fractal not the point to open the deal but the green fractal and we are opening the deal after this Candlestick is closed right here we are wink opening the deal because this is the second Kindle stick after the fractal and let's see what is gonna happen here after two minutes and as you can see the price is going higher right and it continues to grow and at some point just do is doing like a reversal complete reversal let's see why it happened well the main problem of this strategy is actually because it gives you too many signals all the time and that means you need to filter them out because as you know trend is not the same all the time at some points it's stronger at some points it's weaker and sometimes there might be the complete reversal of the trend or the flat period even and basically for you to filter those signals from the main strategy you need to use additional indicator for technical analysis and I'm going to use a stochastic indicator which as you know one of my favorite indicators and we talked about this indicator in great detail in my free course and if you want to get some more information on them and on many other indicators you just need to text me on my Telegram and there you're gonna get the course completely for free and we're which we talked not only about indicators we talked about risk management technical analysis and many many other different things so text me on my telegram get the course completely for free but now let's get back to our example in this case we were supposed to open the deal for a downtrend right but let's look at stochastic right here if you look at the chart first the Candlestick before the fractal you can see unless the hashtag the price is actually in over a bot area right and that means that might be a reversal of the price and the growth of the price basically is going to go up so in this case if you see different signals from the main strategy and the statistic you need to ignore this sign and just not use it there is also additional indicator that helps you to filter out your strategy and it is 150 EMA this time I said it right in this indicator I actually advise you to use with any other strategy because it automatically hires up your win rate for 20 that it was before and the principle is easy right if the price is lower than EMA that means we can open ideas only for a downtrend if the price slash chart is higher than the line of EMA that means we can open the deals only for a uptrend now let's look at the perfect example right here there you see a beginning of an uptrend let's put our little thing here alligator lines are going up with the price and they are not connected with the fractal uh forming right here that means on the second Candlestick we can open our deal for an uptrend all right here but before you do that look at every other indicator here so first one stochastic everything is perfect right the second one EMA the price is higher than EMA that's great and the last one is again our fractal signal meaning it we have three signals it's a perfect place to open the do for an uptrend and we are opening our deal for two minutes and it's going to be close in Black okay finally we're getting to our trading session and first things first we're getting the platform ready and we're choosing two minute um expiration time amount of money is going to be 800 it's like two percent of my balance candlesticks are gonna be for one minute and let's add all the indicators so fragile alligator moving average and stochastic escalator every fittings are the same except for moving average we're changing it to 150 uh type is going to be EMA and stylus I'm changing it to Yellow just because I like it that way now everything is finally ready and we can get started and let's see and let's look at this uh right here uh we could have gotten like the signal but the fraction unfortunately disappeared and plastic is in over thought area uh let's try to find something else and start Ed finally foreign ly we found the first one and as usual we're gonna start with a risky one right here you can see the fractal two candlesticks below and we're opening the deal for a downtrend the price is lower than 150 moving average but that has the good thing not giving us the signal and it's actually Ian over full area so that means to open the deal right here is really risky but we see that statistic has been in this zone for a while and it's like ignoring the zone and the prices continuously going down that basically means that it has to gives us the signal that it's just basically really really strong downtrend that is not going to do a reversal so uh and now we are just going to wait for the result and see if I was [Music] okay great news I was right we did everything correctly and uh we got our money now the deals goes in Black let's continue to find something new okay so right here you can see the similar situation even though the fractal is giving us the signal we can see that the price is lower than EMA and the stochastic showing us that bad idea bad idea it's going down that's why we have completely different signals here and we are going to skip this one okay so right here we have the situation where there was a signal from fractal static was A-Okay but you can see that right after the closing of the second Candlestick the third one is actually rapidly moving down and even though the alligator just started to show us the beginning of a new trend I think this deal is going to be too too risky and I just advise you to ignore stuff like that because again too risky here thank you all right so right here we are opening our next deal entering it this way it's the hestic it's actually really close to the level of oversold area but it's not there just yet and the last Candlestick actually showed us that everything is fine and we also have the fractional signal and EMA is in the perfect position right now we're opening this deal for a downtrend for two minutes as well and let's see what's gonna happen all right that was a bit scary because it was a bit bit dangerous but again uh this is really great because we got our money and our deal is closed in Black so let's continue with it all right guys and right here for example there was a good place to end her deal but unfortunately we are a little bit too late and right here I don't think that that's a good idea to enter right now we should have opened it right there um from like the beginning of this new Candlestick but unfortunately we lost this one but it's fine we're gonna find another one because as you can see it's easier to find places to enter a deal with this strategy and right here we are opening the deal but a bit late because the chart is higher than 150 fretel gives us the signal but we are open in the deal 30 seconds to wait but again it's still close enough to see what's gonna happen what you need to pay attention right here look at the stochastic and if you see that statistic is for a really long period of time in the area of overbought but you see at the same time the price is still coming up in higher highs and higher lows are updated all the time this is definitely an uptrend right here let's put a little note are right here with a u white color and we're going to make it even bigger and you can understand that statistic is actually in the area of over thought but it doesn't mean that the trend is gonna be reversed the lines are chaotically intertwining but the price is still growing that means this is the signal that the price is still going to continue to raise and if you know how this plastic works it means that you know that it might be in the oversold or overbought area for a long time and of course if you want to know more about it I already told you that in the description box down below there's going to be a link to my telegram so you can simply text me and get the free course in which you can actually get the lesson on statistic how it works and what's going to happen and uh yeah for now we're just going to continue I'm not going to talk about it anymore uh just get the course and you will learn more yep as you can see we got the money deal is closed in but luck because we did everything correctly and used our knowledge greatly and I think we can open one more deal and that's going to be the end for today because we don't need many examples even though we already had white or what at this point okay we didn't even have to wait for a long time we're opening the last deal right here it's a little bit late but we actually caught the moment where the price was really close uh till the opening of the Scandal stick that's why we can open the deal right here and enter it and same logic as on the previous one it's the area of oversold area area of sort of area you get what I'm saying basically that means we're ignoring the stochastic signal and we see every other signal that we need is in place which is basically a good science and we are going to continue to look at what's going to happen and um just basically wait for the trend to still continue go down foreign so we are done with this deal it's closed in Black that's amazing and this is going to be it for today our trading session is done okay guys it was a review of subscribers strategy and so far I can tell you that this is the best one that you have sent me because during the session today we managed to earn two thousand and four hundred dollars and I think that this strategy actually really really worth your attention and of course if you want to learn how to work with binary options and get a stable profit out of it you can simply text me to get my free course on telegram link to which is going to be in the description box down below and by the way speaking of the strategy working with it in process I realized that you can actually combine it with trendline strategy for even higher win rate so you can click right here and watch this video on the trendline strategies and that's actually going to be for this video so don't forget to subscribe to this video if you think that this continent is useful for you like up this video and I will see you in the next one bye bye

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