Smart Money Concepts Trading Course (COMPLETE Beginner to Advanced Guide) — backtested on Indian market data | FakeTrades
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Smart Money Concepts Trading Course (COMPLETE Beginner to Advanced Guide)

The Trading Geek · watch on YouTube ↗
Analysed 01 Aug 2026, 03:17 PM IST
★☆☆☆☆ 1.0 / 5

Why 1.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)

  • Negative expectancy: -0.53R per trade across 462 trades
  • Payoff 0.92 — the average winner is SMALLER than the average loser
  • Only 20% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
  • 8 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2019, 2020, 2021) — the edge is regime-dependent
  • Max drawdown -97% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way

Detected components (auto-read from transcript)

Demand/Supply zonesGapLiquidity/ICT

Verdict

Auto-backtested. Detected: gap-up momentum (intraday open->close). Ran on 138 small-caps, real costs. 462 trades, win 20%, payoff 0.92, expectancy -0.53R/trade (avg -2.67%/trade).

This is a losing edge. The payoff ratio is thin. Regime-dependent — positive in only 11% of years.

Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.

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🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)

Tracking since 2026-07-06 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.

Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)

₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)

Return-97.0%
CAGR-36.1%
Max drawdown-97.3%
Trades287 · 58 won
₹200,000 → ₹6,058  ·  2018-08-06 → 2026-05-27
201820192020202120222023202420252026
-5%-12%-77%-47%-0%-35%-51%-13%+7%

Simulated on the 138 small-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.

Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)

YearTradesWin %ExpectancyAvg return / trade
20181020% -0.48R -2.41%
20193129% -0.38R -1.92%
202023414% -0.69R -3.44%
20215328% -0.38R -1.89%
20223225% -0.31R -1.56%
20232524% -0.34R -1.68%
20243913% -0.68R -3.39%
20252025% -0.29R -1.43%
20261850% +0.09R +0.43%

Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 115 stocks, incl. 2026)

#StockTradesWin%Avg/tradeBestTotal2026
1 ████████ 1429% -2.8% +5% -39% +8%
2 ████████ 250% +0.2% +6% +0% +6%
3 ████████ 1217% -2.2% +10% -26% +6%
4 ████████ 1030% -1.1% +7% -11% +5%
5 ████████ 425% -3.5% +2% -14% +2%
6 ████████ 2421% -3.0% +5% -72% +2%
7 ████████ 1100% +1.3% +1% +1% +1%
8 FINPIPE free peek 367% -0.5% +1% -1% +1%
9 ████████ 540% +3.0% +12% +15% +0%
10 ████████ 333% +3.0% +10% +9% +0%
11 ████████ 250% +4.3% +9% +9% +0%
12 ████████ 2100% +2.6% +4% +5% +0%
13 ████████ 250% +2.1% +7% +4% +0%
14 ████████ 1100% +1.8% +2% +2% +0%
15 ████████ 838% +0.1% +7% +1% +0%
16 ████████ 10% -0.2% +0% +0% +0%
17 ████████ 10% -0.2% +0% +0% +0%
18 ████████ 333% +0.1% +11% +0% +0%
19 ████████ 333% -0.1% +3% +0% +0%
20 ████████ 10% -0.7% +-1% -1% +0%
21 ████████ 20% -4.3% +-3% -9% -6%
22 ████████ 450% -2.1% +2% -8% -6%
23 ████████ 10% -4.0% +-4% -4% -4%
24 ████████ 20% -4.4% +-3% -9% -3%
25 ████████ 10% -2.2% +-2% -2% -2%
26 ████████ 450% +3.3% +12% +13% -2%
27 ████████ 425% -2.2% +1% -9% -1%
28 ████████ 2623% -2.7% +14% -70% +0%
29 ████████ 812% -4.7% +1% -38% +0%
30 ████████ 812% -4.6% +2% -37% +0%
You can see the numbers — see the names. Unlock every stock in this breakdown and download it as Excel. The worst stock in this table returned -72% under these exact rules — one wrong pick costs many times the unlock.

Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Full transcript (3137 words)
you have finally understood smart money Concepts after watching this video so in this video I want to simplify smart money Concepts in a way that even a 5-year-old kid can understand most of the information that you can find online is all about retail trading oh buy and support level if you search for how smart money and the big Banks trade you won't find much information about it and today smart money trading is probably one of the best kept secrets in in the world of trading and today I want to review those secrets with you I mean to you once you learn how smart money trades you can implement this Concepts into your style of trading and make even more money so let me explain to you some smart money Concepts that you must follow so that you can finally become a profitable Trader so firstly let's talk about boss or break off structure so in an uptrend price will be looking like this you'll be making your higher highs and higher lows every time price breaks through a new high this is what we call a bullish break of structure or B boss so there's a break of structure here there's another break of structure right here and another break of structure right here whenever price breaks the previous high so at some point of time price will eventually lose momentum and start reversing in the other direction and for this reversal to be valid price has to break the pre previous higher low so this is the previous higher low and price has to break below it for it to be valid so once this move has happened this is what we call the chalk or rather a change of character Chalk in order for this chalk to work we want this previous High to be an area of Interest like either a supply or demand zone or an order block so the stronger the Zone the better it is right the better this chalk will works once we have a change of character the chalk and an area of Interest your supply Zone we can expect price to reverse and start going down and then as it starts to go down it will create your lower highs and lower lows and lower highs and lower lows and as price creates your lower highs and lower lows it will also create your bearish break of structure whenever price break through a lower low so when price break to a low low it creates another break of structure right here so this is our bullish break of structure and this is our bearish break of structure and this is our change of character and at some point of time this downtrend will start losing momentum like this uptrend right here and it will start reversing back up and this will create your change of character right here so this is pretty much the whole concept of this smart money Concepts break of structure and change of character for this strategy to work we want the area of Interest interest this zone right here this supply and demand Zone to be as strong as possible because the stronger it is the more likely the price will move in the direction that you want it to now what do I mean by strong area of interest there are two methods that you can use the first method is what we call the liquidity grap at a supply or demand Zone firstly you need to identify a strong Supply or demand Zone on the higher time frame like the 1 hour time frame or above so the higher the time frame the stronger the area will be and what you want price to do is your liquidity grab so what is a liquidity grab a liquidity grab is basically a FSE breakout right in this case where price breaks through a recent high or low does a fake out like this and then reverses in the opposite direction so the psychology behind this liquidity grab is that people will be entering for a sell when price breaks through the recent low because this is the recent low and when price breaks through the recent low the sellers will be selling down because they think that this is a downtrend right so when they enter for a sell right here they're going to be placing their stop loss above the last lower high which is right here so if price end up doing a force breakout and price actually comes up it will hit all their stop losses adding fuel to the fire and increasing the momentum causing price to shoot up so we can take advantage of this by entering for a buy position somewhere right around here and make money as price goes to the moon the second method to find a key area of interest is by using order blocks so an order block is basically an area where the smart money and Big Bangs likes to enter and exit so how do you spot order blocks you spot order blocks by looking for strong reversals like this and this and this you can see whenever price goes up here here it reverse down strongly and when price come back down here it reverse back up strongly so this level right here and this level right here is what we call the order blocks now let's combine whatever that we just learned and I'm going to show you a high win rate smart money trading strategy so for this strategy make sure that you are using a higher time frame like the 1 hour time frame the first thing before you do anything is that you want to mark up your key levels or supply and demand zones by finding where price is reversing or respecting right here whenever price goes up here it always collapse one time two time three times four times so this is a very strong Supply Zone and I can draw another demand Zone at this key support era right here so now I'm going to show you this strategy on gbpusd the Great British pound against the US dollar we can see that there's a support area right around this area here because whenever price come back down here it always reversal come back down reverses so you can see price has just been respecting this support level or demand Zone whatever you like to call it and over here price gave us a liquidity GP so the first thing you want to look for is for price to give us a liquidity grap or a fce breakout at a supply or demand Zone which is exactly what price gave us here price broke through the support level and then it just went back up so this was a very clear Force breakout or what I like to call liquidity grap now you can mark up your break of structure here and the next thing you want to look for is a change of corrector price must make a change of character after the liquidity grap do not take that trade if there is no change of character so it's very very important they will look out for a change of character after the liquidity grab so I can spot a change of character right here because this is the last lower high before price collaps and then at this point of time this is when price has broken the last lower high breaking structure causing a change of character now next when do we actually enter for the trade we enter when there is a fair value Gap now what is a fair value Gap a fair value Gap is when price goes up or down so fast that it doesn't give buyers or sellers enough time to enter the market therefore it creates an imbalance in the market so price will usually come back up or come back down to this fair value Gap and reject it and that is when you can enter for the trade so you can Mark a fair value Gap by using a rectangular tool to Mark the previous candles week before the big move and then taking the next candle week after the big move so right here this would be your fair value Gap so there are bullish fair value gap which is basically a big fat green candle and there is also bearish fair value Gap like this big red candle right here so back to the example you want to enter for a buy when price has came back down to our fair value Gap so in this example I can spot a fair value Gap right here you can see right here there's a fair value Gap and right now what we want to do is to wait for price to come back down to retest this fair value Gap then that is when we can enter for a buy and the reason why I mark this as the fair value Gap is that if you look towards right here at this candle here price went up super fast right went up super fast gave us a big fat green candle this Candlestick week the next Candlestick week and the Candlestick week before it I marked up the entire box giving us the fair value Gap so I want you to know that price can come to the midle of the fair value Gap reject it and then continue going up but at the same time remember price can do anything it wants so price can also touches the fair value gap which is like this area here just touches it and just reverse and head back up so if you were waiting for the price to go to the midle you have missed out on the trade so ultimately it's really up to you on which way you want to do it right there is no right or wrong answer so in this trade I have entered for a buy right here when price has came to the middle of this fair value Gap and it's showing me some sort of signs that it's going to reject it and hit back up and I'll place my stop loss below the fair value Gap and I'll place my thck profit at where price last stop at if you look towards the left there a little resistance area being formed right around this area here so that is where I should place my take profit and as you can see this was a one is three R to the ratio trade very very beautiful trade and the thing about trading fair value gaps is that you are able to get those nice sniper entries which will give you a high risk to reward ratio this trade smash our take profit right here very very beautiful trade and the next thing I'm looking for is another trade so to show you this strategy works I'm just going to be continue using this strategy on this chart so let's wait wait and you can see at this point of time price created another resistance area or that's rather a supply Zone and it gave us a liquidity grap right here when price broke through the resistance and then it came back down so this was a fce breakout so this is a liquidity grab and the next thing you want to look for is a change of character this is a change of character right here because this is the last higher low before price goes up and like fa the break pass right so this was a little change of corrector right here price came back down broke through the last higher low giving us a change of corre so next thing I want to do is to mark up my fair value Gap and I can mark up a fair value Gap right here because I saw there's a huge push down and there's a big break candle here so I'll mark my fair value Gap right here and you can see price has went back up to retest the fair value Gap so this is where I will enter for a sell position and price is came back up to retest this fair value Gap enter in the middle of this fair value Gap place your stop loss Above This fair value Gap and take profit all the way down at the next key level and I can see there's a support level right here I place my take profit right there and once again this was a very very beautiful trade we end up smashing our take profit on this trade it's really really as simple as that guys I know that a lot of YouTubers a lot of people on YouTube have been trying to make smart money Concepts very complicated very very hard to understand so that you guys can buy the cost and I'm telling you it's complicated but it's not that complicated it's still doable all right it's still doable and I'm here to help to simplify this entire process because I understand how you feel when I first started learning about smart money Concepts all these boss chalks BOS fair value Gap all these foreign terms I have no idea what the hell are those and then I went to do my research and I end up being even more confused than I already am I hope that like this video was able to like help to simplify it but do not exit this video yet I'm going to show you more examples because I understand a lot of you guys still probably do not understand this strategy yet and you have to understand this strategy if you want to trade smart money Concepts so right here after we close this trade once again price is at this support area right here consolidating around this area and there's a breakout structure over here when price broke through the last high right here and at this point of time price went back up to the same resistance area that we have drawn and it gave us a liquidity grab once again gave us a liquidity grab and then this is the last lower low or last higher low and right now price has broken this last higher low so once price has broken this last higher low it gave us a change of corrector when price gave us a change of corrector next step is to look for a fair value Gap and I can see a fair value Gap right here this big red candle here and you can see but price went up to retest it and if you notice price did not go to the middle of this fair value Gap and then go down it literally just went up touched the fair value Gap and go down so this is exactly what I mean by what I said just now sometimes price can just touch the fa Gap and then just collapse so in this case if you were waiting for price to go to the middle of this fair value Gap and then go down you would have missed out on this trade but like I said ultimately it's still up to you so I'm going to show you one last example and you can see I've drawn some break of structure and honestly break of structure you can draw it on your charts but Le strategy is more about change of character so right now price has been collapsing coming down to our beautiful support area right here this beautiful strong demand Zone price literally gave us a huge liquidity GB right here Force breakout huge liquidity grab so next thing I to look for is a change of character and I get a change of character right here because this is like the last high and price has broken the last high right here so this was a little change of corre and actually within this move I can actually spot another change of character somewhere right around here because if you look closely right this price was trying to create a new like lower high and lower low and lower high and lower low and if fail to do that so price actually gave us a l lower high high right here so the moment price break through this last lower high that would be your change of character this thing is so damn long let me just shorten this thing right here put it right here the moment price start breaking through this last lower high this is the last lower high and price broke through it this is a change of character so right now I can spot a fair value Gap right here and I'm waiting for price to come back down to retest this fair value gap which it did right here so the moment price start coming down here to back to this fair value Gap I'm going to be entering for a buy right here place my stop loss below this fair value Gap place my take profit at the next key level which is right here there's a key level being form right here right there's a resistance area so you can see once again this was a very very beautiful trade and really is all about wins and repeating the same thing right I have shown you that this strategy works this chalk boss boss and this strategy work all right I'm going to call it boss and Cox strategy from now on it's a very beautiful name very easy to remember so make sure that you go apply whatever you just learned on the charts and integrate whatever you just learned into practice because that's the only way you can Master smart money concepts by practicing endlessly like this video If this video has helped you guys out I really try my best to simplify smart money Concepts which is a super complicated concept to into a way where like a 5-year-old can understand so smash that like button and hit on that subscribe button for more weekly trading videos and if you want to learn about how I trade using price action check out this video right here trust me this strategy is 10 times simpler than the freaking smart money Trading strategy all right click on this video right here to find out more and remember you're just one trade away

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