I Simplified NQ Trading To One Setup and Made $191K (Just Copy Me) — backtested on Indian market data | FakeTrades
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I Simplified NQ Trading To One Setup and Made $191K (Just Copy Me)

Daxton Trades · watch on YouTube ↗
Analysed 11 Oct 2026, 11:03 PM IST
★☆☆☆☆ 1.0 / 5
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Heads up: this strategy was originally created for the US stock market. We applied the exact same logic to Indian stocks & indices and the backtest completed successfully — every result below is on Indian market data.

Why 1.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)

  • ✕ Negative expectancy: -0.24R per trade across 28,458 trades
  • ✕ Payoff 0.60 — the average winner is SMALLER than the average loser
  • ✕ 9 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2019, 2020, 2021) — the edge is regime-dependent

Detected components (auto-read from transcript)

IntradaySwing EMA

Claims it makes (quotes pulled from the transcript)

  • “I don't want you to think that this strategy is 100% win or something.”
  • “It's 73% win rate.”

Verdict

Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: Intraday NQ (Nasdaq) strategy: define bias via stacked EMAs (50/30/1-hr on 5-min chart), wait for counter-trend pullback, enter on fair-value-gap inversion with swing-high/low stops and liquidity targ We isolated the one mechanical claim — a day-of-week bias where a prior session's level is expected to be 'revisited'/swept — and traded it short across 159 large/mid-caps with real costs: 28,458 trades, win 49%, expectancy -0.24R/trade (avg -0.24%/trade).

The result is a high win-rate that still loses money after costs — a negative-skew mirage: small targets, larger adverse moves. A directional lean can be statistically real yet still fail to pay once you attach a target, a stop and costs.

Mechanically decoded and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review.

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🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)

Tracking since 2026-10-12 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.

Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)

Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)

YearTradesWin %ExpectancyAvg return / trade
2018171547% -0.21R -0.26%
2019346750% -0.22R -0.21%
2020322748% -0.05R -0.11%
2021338049% -0.30R -0.33%
2022384258% -0.06R -0.10%
2023364241% -0.41R -0.34%
2024352142% -0.37R -0.34%
2025403349% -0.30R -0.26%
2026163156% -0.15R -0.17%

Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)

#StockTradesWin%Avg/tradeBestTotal2026
1 ████████ 18852% -0.1% +6% -16% +6%
2 ████████ 17949% -0.3% +7% -47% +5%
3 ████████ 19253% -0.1% +6% -13% +4%
4 ████████ 5657% -0.3% +2% -15% +4%
5 ████████ 18948% -0.2% +10% -46% +4%
6 ████████ 19242% -0.3% +9% -59% +4%
7 ████████ 15043% -0.5% +4% -76% +4%
8 IDFCFIRSTB free peek 17953% -0.0% +11% -8% +3%
9 ████████ 18252% -0.1% +9% -10% +3%
10 ████████ 17854% -0.1% +3% -9% +2%
11 ████████ 19251% -0.1% +7% -14% +2%
12 ████████ 10551% -0.2% +5% -22% +2%
13 ████████ 18750% -0.2% +3% -39% +2%
14 ████████ 17549% -0.2% +3% -40% +2%
15 ████████ 18849% -0.2% +4% -44% +2%
16 ████████ 17050% -0.3% +3% -46% +2%
17 ████████ 17951% -0.3% +5% -46% +2%
18 ████████ 18350% -0.3% +6% -47% +2%
19 ████████ 16545% -0.3% +2% -49% +2%
20 ████████ 18849% -0.3% +3% -51% +2%
21 ████████ 19050% -0.4% +3% -70% -13%
22 ████████ 18642% -0.3% +10% -60% -9%
23 ████████ 18847% -0.3% +3% -56% -9%
24 ████████ 18653% -0.1% +13% -25% -9%
25 ████████ 18843% -0.3% +8% -48% -8%
26 ████████ 18350% -0.2% +11% -37% -8%
27 ████████ 18048% -0.2% +7% -32% -8%
28 ████████ 18543% -0.4% +3% -73% -7%
29 ████████ 15148% -0.3% +3% -48% -7%
30 ████████ 20644% -0.2% +6% -43% -7%
You can see the numbers — see the names. Unlock every stock in this breakdown and download it as Excel. The worst stock in this table returned -76% under these exact rules — one wrong pick costs many times the unlock.

Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)

IndexTradesWin%Expectancy (R/trade)Avg return/trade
NIFTY24836% -0.50R -0.19%
BANKNIFTY26045% -0.42R -0.18%
Full transcript (1994 words)
$191,000 in the last 3 months taking only one trade per day spending roughly 30 minutes on the charts and I am done for the entire day. You can see here we had four trading days in April so far. I made $13,000 in March $54,000 in February $64,000 and in January $60,000. And I have all the trades here that I took. No complex analysis, no multiple time frames, 10 time frames. I see people looking into the monthly time frames to define their bias. No, it's not the case. This is so simple and mechanical that even my grandma can execute it. You don't need 2 years to master it. Most people get it within 1 week. By the end of this video, you will know exactly how to implement my strategy and get results like this without watching dozens of videos that cherry picks trades, without learning discretionary strategies that take years to master, and if they are even profitable at all. So, let's get straight into it. First, let me show you my setup. I trade the NQ only on the 5-minute time frame. I don't use other time frames. I have here two indicators. This is the Lux Algo Sessions indicator. It's simply showing me the London AM session and also the New York Stock Exchange session. This session is where I trade. And the other one is the Daxon Trend indicator. This is my custom indicator and it's simply showing me higher time frame data into my 5-minute chart. So, the white one is the 50 15-minutes EMA, the green one is the 30-minutes EMA, and the red one is the 1-hour EMA. Unlike other traders that I see online teaching this, they are checking 10 other time frames, switching between them, trying to figure out what the market is doing. I don't do any of that. My EMAs are built from higher time frame data, but displayed on my 5-minute chart. This means that I see the full picture, what institutions are seeing, what the big players are watching, all in one single chart without switching any time frame. When they are stacked and pointing down, the markets want to go down. I'm only looking for shorts. When they're stacked and pointing up, the markets want to go up. I'm only looking for long like you see here. That's my entire bias under 10 seconds. No weekly analysis, no drone levels on six different time frame, just this. This is the first part of my strategy. Let me quickly clear this chart up and give you the second part. I will also write all the parts of my strategy right here. So now we defined our bias for the day. The second part is I want to see a counter trend. That means if we have a bearish days like this, we need to see a small upper trend like this. Let's take this day as an example. So, you can see clearly that the day is bearish and also before the New York open, we had a counter trend. That means we are clearly going down, but yeah, here we have an upper trend. You can call it a pullback, you can call it a correction, you can call it a counter trend. So, this is the second part. I always wait for a counter trend. So, let me quickly get rid of this and do the replay tool quickly explain to you the next part. This is the third and the most important part of the strategy is I wait for fair value gap to get inversed in the counter trend in this correction after the markets are open. Now, we have 5 minutes left for the market is open. The closest FVG that we can see that the price didn't break. That means if we have this fair value gap right here, the price didn't broke this fair value gap. So, this is the last fair value gap that we have before the market is open. So, let's quickly do this. You can see that the first candle after market is open broke this fair value gap. After breaking the fair value gap, we go in for a short position. We put the stop loss above the candle that broke the fair value gap and we target the closest liquidity. You can see here we have a liquidity. So, let's say we entered right here. We have this liquidity right here. We we need always to target something before we arrive to this liquidity because sometimes price doesn't want to touch this liquidity and reverse. Let's see how this trade will do. You can see clearly that we made 4% if we risk 1%. This is from the 30th of March. Let's go to the Yeah, you can see here I was risking $2,000 and made 8.8k, almost 9k. Like you saw, this was the first example. Let's go to the previous day and give you another example. Let's do the bar replay right here before market open. Let's get the strategy right here. Now, we have also 5 minutes until the market is open and we can see clearly that we have a fair value gap right here in the counter trend because we are clearly bearish for the day like you see here. All the EMAs are pointing downwards. So, we have here a counter trend, a pullback, a correction, you can call it whatever you want. So, let's see the first candle. We have a break of this fair value gap. We enter, the stop loss above this swing high. Let's check for the last liquidity that we have to the downside. As you can see, we have no liquidity here. So, we will be targeting a two RR for our TP. Let's see how this trade will play. You can see clearly that we did go straight to the TP of two Rs. To This day was Friday, the 27th of March. You can see here that I made a little bit under 2% risking $2,000. And let's go to the other previous day. Let's bar right here. So, like you see, this is the first candle of the New York Stock Exchange in this counter trend that you see here right before market is open, we have absolutely no fair value gap. So, we wait. Let's play the candles. We can see that we have a counter trend because we are clearly moving to the downside. If you can uh check the EMAs. So, we are going up for now. We have actually a fair value gap that forms between these three candles. We have this pullback going to the upside between this first candle, the second candle, and this third candle, we have a clear fair value gap. So, we keep an eye on it. Let's check what the market will do. You can see here clearly that we broke this fair value gap. So, as always, we go in right here. The stop loss is above the candle that broke the fair value gap. Let's look for a liquidity to the left. We can see here that we have this liquidity right here in this area right here. So, this is a liquidity that we have. Let's target it. And like always, don't put your TP right here. Move it slightly before we get to this liquidity. Let's see how it will play out. So, like I told you, never put the TP right here at the liquidity because sometimes price will simply will not get to that liquidity. So, we have another win right here. It's from the 26th of March. You can see here that I made 3.2% I believe or something like that. Exactly like the trade you see here. Now, let me show you the losses. I don't want you to think that this strategy is 100% win or something. It's 73% win rate. It prints to be honest, but you will have losing days. As you can see right here. So, let me check the 25th of March. It's that day. In the morning, I saw that these EMAs are starting to point to the upside. So, I waited for the New York session to open. Like always, we are above the EMAs and the EMAs are pointing up. So, we always waiting for a counter trend to the opposite side of the trend. So, that means we want to see a fair value gap forms in the opposite trend of where the price is going and wait for the price to inverse that fair value gap. That means if we have a fair value gap like this. So, it's clearly a bearish fair value gap. The price broke this fair value gap right here with this candle. I did go in here, put my stop loss here, and targeted this liquidity that we have right here. I targeted this liquidity, but I ended up losing this trade. This is completely normal. This is a textbook setup and I ended up losing this trade. No problem. We move to the next day. And as you can see, we had three winning days after each other. Now, let me give you the last example before we wrap this video up. Like you see, we came up to our setup before New York open and we saw that the EMAs are stacked up. This is a trade from the 1st of April. And like I said, so the EMAs are pointing up. The price is above the EMAs. We will only be looking into longs. So, we have 5 minutes until market is open. That means we will be looking into a fair value gap inside a bearish counter trend. Let's see what the price will do. We can see here that New York open started with a bullish candle and we are waiting for a bearish fair value gap to form. So, we can see here that the start of this candle and the end of this candle formed a bearish counter trend. And we can clearly see that we have here a small fair value gap right here. Now, we simply waiting for the price to break this fair value gap. If you can see here, we broke it. We entered a long. The stop loss is slightly here and let's look for a liquidity. So, I can see no liquidity to target. That's why I did target a 2 hours. And let's see what the price will do. So, straight into TP. This is also a textbook setup. We have here an upper trend. A mini downtrend, a fair value gap formed into this counter trend. Price broke right here. This fair value gap and inverse that fair value gap and we end up winning 2 hours. As you can see here, almost 2 hours risking $2,000. So, let's rewind this strategy from the get-go. First, before doing anything, you need to define your bias every single day before New York is open. So, that's why I have these EMAs who help me define my bias. Second, I always wait for the counter trend. So, if we have the price moving like this, I always wait for these parts and a fair value gap to be inversed in these parts. Then, I target either a previous liquidity or 2 hours if I can't see a clear liquidity that I will be targeting. The stop loss goes always above or under the swing high or the swing low. And I trade only NQ on the 5-minute time frame. If you want to see my next videos, make sure to subscribe and like the video. Also, if you have any questions, make sure to put your comments below. Thank you so much for watching my first video and let's meet for new ones.

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