This SIMPLE strategy has made me most amount of MONEY in 2022! — backtested on Indian market data | FakeTrades
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This SIMPLE strategy has made me most amount of MONEY in 2022!

Kay Capitals · watch on YouTube ↗
Analysed 01 Aug 2026, 03:13 PM IST
★½☆☆☆ 1.5 / 5
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Heads up: this strategy was originally created for the US stock market. We applied the exact same logic to Indian stocks & indices and the backtest completed successfully — every result below is on Indian market data.

Why 1.5/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)

  • Roughly ZERO per-trade edge (+0.01R) — real costs eat whatever is there
  • Only 35% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
  • 5 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2019, 2022, 2025) — the edge is regime-dependent
  • Max drawdown -84% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way

Detected components (auto-read from transcript)

Intraday EMADemand/Supply zonesGapVolume

Verdict

Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: Daily hammer pullback to EMA/whole number + intraday breakout above pre-market high on 5-min chart; executed on US stocks (AAPL, COIN, CRWD). Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 46,731 trades, win 35%, payoff 1.86, expectancy +0.01R/trade (avg -0.18%/trade).

This is essentially breakeven. Regime-dependent — positive in only 33% of years.

Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.

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🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)

Tracking since 2026-07-07 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.

Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)

₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)

Return-82.6%
CAGR-19.8%
Max drawdown-84.0%
Trades1514 · 398 won
₹200,000 → ₹34,795  ·  2018-07-09 → 2026-06-08
201820192020202120222023202420252026
-13%-36%-14%+22%-21%-7%-11%-28%-37%

Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.

Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)

YearTradesWin %ExpectancyAvg return / trade
2018259731% -0.08R -0.74%
2019525634% -0.06R -0.56%
2020576140% +0.14R +0.76%
2021584937% +0.08R +0.22%
2022596634% -0.04R -0.53%
2023622038% +0.07R +0.06%
2024609935% -0.00R -0.22%
2025618334% -0.06R -0.57%
2026280029% -0.10R -0.63%

Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)

#StockTradesWin%Avg/tradeBestTotal2026
1 ████████ 9831% +0.3% +36% +26% +143%
2 ████████ 30244% +2.4% +66% +718% +127%
3 ████████ 29130% -0.1% +41% -36% +118%
4 ████████ 25040% +2.6% +78% +651% +109%
5 ████████ 29735% +0.3% +28% +91% +59%
6 ████████ 24637% -0.1% +29% -13% +55%
7 ████████ 32636% +0.5% +26% +176% +46%
8 DEEPAKNTR free peek 28833% +0.3% +47% +86% +46%
9 ████████ 28542% +3.4% +178% +962% +41%
10 ████████ 26043% +5.0% +119% +1299% +40%
11 ████████ 27034% +1.0% +81% +269% +36%
12 ████████ 31634% -0.4% +19% -135% +33%
13 ████████ 32536% +0.4% +31% +123% +27%
14 ████████ 32535% -0.3% +25% -100% +26%
15 ████████ 28636% +0.0% +27% +6% +25%
16 ████████ 30636% +0.3% +35% +96% +24%
17 ████████ 31835% +0.2% +49% +52% +17%
18 ████████ 29229% -0.7% +16% -198% +17%
19 ████████ 30436% -0.4% +19% -120% +16%
20 ████████ 31238% +0.5% +34% +158% +14%
21 ████████ 32134% -0.5% +40% -157% -53%
22 ████████ 30227% -0.8% +19% -235% -52%
23 ████████ 28340% +1.4% +55% +406% -48%
24 ████████ 30027% -0.8% +12% -248% -47%
25 ████████ 33535% -0.0% +22% -1% -47%
26 ████████ 23327% -0.7% +19% -155% -45%
27 ████████ 30738% -0.1% +25% -18% -44%
28 ████████ 31833% -0.3% +36% -85% -43%
29 ████████ 31926% -0.7% +13% -211% -42%
30 ████████ 32834% -0.2% +25% -51% -42%
You can see the numbers — see the names. Unlock every stock in this breakdown and download it as Excel. The worst stock in this table returned -248% under these exact rules — one wrong pick costs many times the unlock.

Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)

IndexTradesWin%Expectancy (R/trade)Avg return/trade
NIFTY48034% -0.07R -0.46%
BANKNIFTY45436% +0.01R -0.25%
Full transcript (3326 words)
Welcome to Kay capitals, so my most profitable  strategy i like to call it daily hammer strategy first things first disclaimer i'm not an investment financial  tax or legal advisor nothing nobody in kay capitals will actually tell you when to buy  or sell, please understand there's some   risks involved. These strategies worked for me  it it doesn't mean that it will work for you   uh i have enough practice with me uh you know  i know when they work when they don't work   i'll try to try to be as transparent as as i can  be with you guys so you guys can learn from it so please read the disclaimer we'll i'll  leave this for one minute and then get to it all right i think pretty much it sweet okay first thing to remember no  strategy doesn't matter what strategy is it   no strategy is hundred percent all right there's risks involved in every strategy you have  to know the risks okay so that which that means is   if you're taking a break out you're gonna  know okay that's my stop-loss if the price   came down i'm gonna get stopped out  and that's my profit target that's   my profit target you gotta know this stuff  there's always risk in everything okay um i've spent hours and hours this is  one of the strategies that i have   over all like well over a thousand trades  back tested in my in my onenote and uh my um excel sheets okay so there's   i will type for the strategy and after a while  after seeing the charts for a while i started   i started being very consistent at it and uh  now it's at a stage where i feel like you know i can i can teach you guys and you can make  some money as well because it works in a way so   there's enough food on the table i can only eat  so much there's still plenty left all right so   i can eat my food i can i'll  be able to catch my moves   which that means is if you even if you  guys catch your moves and make some money   it wouldn't bother me you know what i mean i  won't be affected by it at all so that's why   i'm always very transparent with everybody uh  i'll still catch my moves i'll still still eat   if you guys can eat just by my little  bit help i'll try my best okay um please don't go out there don't go out there  and straight away start using these strategies   good go to your excel sheets write down okay this  is the time i saw this stuff happening and it   worked this was my risk okay this is my risk and  reward the risk reward is like one two then oh i   love it okay next time i took it and at least back  test like at least 20 to 50 trades so you know   you know when they work is the market  aligning with them when it works   is pi falling and display is still working  so you gotta know these factors okay we only   have so much time i can't go over everything  so the best bit you can do is one big secret   statistics is your [ __ ] key no [ __ ] will  tell you this because they want to sell you   their [ __ ] uh courses and [ __ ] one thing that  i learned in this little business it's more about   a big business for everybody all right it's not  about helping you bro it's it's about it's just   about a big business and you just a little  part of it okay so that's why i started my   this free discord because i'm i'm kind of  done with how [ __ ] people can you know   just use people and try to make money um all right  let's get right into it man please do some real   back testing and then you can go out with  with real money but okay let's get to it bang apple this is apple's daily chart three things  that we need to look out on so these three things   should happen and that's when this strategy works  there should be a strong move on daily job when i   say strong move stronger than this okay the move  should last for over over over a period of week   it should be strong for over a week okay like this  from 14th of march to literally second or third of   april we were so strong we went from 150 to 180  right this strategy is to trade the this as well   but we are here to talk about the pullback that  we get and okay a strong move the first point is   we see a strong move on a daily chart second is  we see a pullback to atma this is atma right here   atman 90mah right here we see a pullback after a  huge move one thing that i've learned over time   with this is if the price is below ems and it  pushes above the ema for over a week and stays   above there the strategy works wonders okay now it  pushed above the emas uh pushed to the ema's and   made a hammer candle if you guys have read my book  you know hamel is his second most bullish candle   it's really really bullish okay so we  want to see a hammer candle on the emas   so these three things if they are there  the chances that we can we can find a play   all right so let's see now how this  looked on hourly chart the next day all right this was avalija so  this is next day in the pre-market   okay so this was the day the hammer candle day  you see we saw a lot of weakness then it picked up   and it closed pretty strong closed above  the opening price of the day okay then   in the next pre-market we gapped up or even if we  didn't gap up we were actually holding that levels   pretty strong now after this after you see a move  like this this thing's happening you want to see what you want to do is pre-market high  mark the pre-market high corn hourly chart   launch your next supply in demand zones so this is  the next supply right here 176 if you can see this   all right it was support then it became resistance  that's a huge level 176 and then this is 177.   can you guys see how many times we tried to break  it we couldn't break it that means this it's a   strong resistance up until here everything clear  guys i want to ask questions a lot as as we go okay so now we have levels plotted 175 176 177 okay   now let's get to five minute chart at 9 25. this  was at 9 25 5 minutes before the market open   this is what the chart looked like  so this is pre-market high 175.15 then we have 176 level and 177. so one simple way  to trade this is it's a breakout move so if you   see these things happening one okay this this is  where we plot supply and demand jones we all know   our resistance levels and then when the price is  when the price is breaking out on this 175 move what i normally do i get in gold okay and you can  hold the move up until your next resistance points   you can sell some here you can sell some at the  next point okay now let's see how this plan worked boom it broke went straight to the next  level and straight to the next point   and now people get greedy all the time they  will hold these plays for longer thinking   they're gonna make a million [ __ ] dollars of  this okay but it doesn't work this way all right   you make a plan in the pre-market you check  your daily charts you saw this play happening   you've got to get out of your position as  well this is a big move man this is a huge   move 175 to 177 that's two dollar  move on apple will pay you like 40   on your money okay it's one of the biggest  strategy that i use and it [ __ ] gives a lot of   money if you put ten thousand dollars in there you  get four grand [ __ ] return all right so this is   the basic strategy i like to cut the [ __ ] you  know cut the shot cut the crap very very short so one pull back to the daily job second you make your levels on an hourly chart third make sure the level  doesn't break in the pre-market   make sure the levels don't break in the  pre-market and then is the execution all right all right now let me give you guys another example so you know  it just forms up your concept um here we are   coin daily chart what happened here strong move on a daily chart you guys can see  this very very strong move for like a week   three four five days strong move up yeah then we saw a pullback a pullback cab  now there's a question now it can be ema   or it can be a huge level like three like 300  level here or on amazon 3300 level or 32.50 level   on tesla a thousand level you know something  like a big whole number and there's a huge   level like this like the hill 300 level is huge  okay it's just like we all know 300 is huge   price went above for like five [ __ ] straight  days then we had a pullback then we saw this   so these are the trades that i took okay i took  these trades i made a lot of money of them so i'm   like okay i'll i'll help you guys and uh why  not now we saw uh first first thing is there   strong move on a daily then we saw a  pullback there was a pullback pretty   pretty close to ema's we went to 293 the  emas would like 290 but that doesn't matter   hamill candle on daily on stronghold  number we saw price closed above the stronghold number all right now let's see how  this looked on a hourly level so that we can plot   how the price open next day this is how the  price opens next day we saw this this is a   this is what i'm talking about the uh hourly uh  the hammer candle thing on hourly and then the   price opened very very strong now it was holding  this level pretty good now we we plotted this 305   when i was doing this applauded this  level 303 or eight point five and then   i saw next one i'm like next supply is sitting  at 315. there's no [ __ ] supply in the middle   so i applauded my 315 and then i saw  another supply sitting at right here 317.37 uploaded these all levels okay now i'm fully ready  for it applauded my levels   everything looks good this is what the  chart looked like on a five minute chart   up until here everything clear with  you guys no questions everything good all right i like to keep it very very simple  man because i i understand when it's simple   so i guess everyone understands you know i don't  like [ __ ] showing ten thousand indicators and so right we saw this move we saw then we  went on hourly and we drew our whole numbers then on a five-minute chart we saw  that those levels are not breaking   at all and now there's a huge move 305  8.5 to 315 it's a huge move and i know   i remember i knew for a fact if i'm able to  catch this move even on shares if the options   don't have that much volume that's a huge [  __ ] move if i can get into thousand shares   and i'm risking like literally if the breakout  didn't happen i'm risking like a dollar or half   a dollar i know that i can catch [ __ ] eight  dollar move and then ten dollar basically move   and it was a huge risk to reward and i think  i entered with a thousand shares i made like   eight grand or ten grand of it um and this is  what happened price went broke stayed above it   we started forming this little pen and thing  a little pattern another lesson that can be   for another day how to trade these okay i'll i  reckon we'll do it next week if you guys aren't   ready for it we were forming this bullish  thing we broke with a lot of volume we broke   we went to our 315 kept holding the levels  then we broke again with a lot of volume we   went to three [ __ ] 24 bro can you guys see  how simple it is to catch these [ __ ] moves right is everything clear up until here when you learn this stuff spending hours  and hours and hours or or you know other   people be selling their courses and this  one lesson can go to like 25 [ __ ] hours   and you'd be paying [ __ ] grant for it and we  basically did in like 20 [ __ ] minutes we are   done with this [ __ ] normal session you guys  have learned the strategy but no [ __ ] [ __ ] um it's a day trade right it's a day trade man   you adjust your stop losses the  stock price goes in your favor yes all right now let me give you guys another example   so you know like you know everything's  like ready for ready for you guys you know   there we go crowd daily chat strong move up on a  daily chart you guys can see this here for like   five five six days straight we went up strong  move we went from literally well 180 to 26. right a huge move and then we saw a little okay  there's a little uh resistance on top 226 price   is not moving higher and i was watching this  i saw this this day and i'm like nah there's   no huge level i'm not [ __ ] getting into this  there's no level i saw this little hammer candle   but there's no huge level now there should be all  three things should [ __ ] align to it first is   a strong move on daily second is a pullback third  is there should be hammer candle on a whole number   or an ema and the third third thing was not  happening so i passed and and then i saw this   after this days closed after every day price  closes i check over like 300 400 charts every day   daily charts of every single day okay why because  i know for a fact if i can find a play like this   man they're gonna be [ __ ] 10  grand five grand straight up   you know so you're gonna put in dime a little bit  you know so you can find these setups i can show   you these setups you know in discord every day  um if i find them i'll share with you guys if you   want but you know keep your eyes up sometimes you  got to put in work as well right okay now we saw   this huge boo pullback and then price went down  let's see how this looked like on an hourly chart this was it price came down big pull pull  up and now we have this strong level of 226.   now you guys be wondering why do i have  227 228 229 and 230 level plotted out so   one thing if we can't find anywhere close don't  go [ __ ] three years back and see oh man what the   price did back in the day you're gonna understand  psychology of other traders changes over time   okay maybe the market conditions at that time  were different to now maybe spy was ripping   that time inspired now is [ __ ] uh can't  even move so you can't go back five years   before the day and uh you can plot  the levels doesn't work that way okay   check the recent data if you can't see  recent data just plot one dollar moves   because now i can't see recent stuff all  right i can't see recent what's going on   so what what i did i plotted every one dollar  because i'm i'm a day trader i don't care about   [ __ ] it goes to do 90 to 80. i want to catch  my piece i want to [ __ ] off okay as long as   you can catch a piece that's all that matters  now i plotted my 226 to 27 to 28 to 29 to 30.   okay let's see how this looked on a farm in a  chart before the market opened so this was it we   were trading at 220 and i have level at 226. i had  my alert set and i was pretty happy i'm like okay   there's still some time for the move to happen  let's see how we go and this is what happened boom we went up okay when it broke out you can get in  you can manage your positions here it's just a   little uh we want to say a little rectangle  forming we broke up with some volume again   and we went to all our levels guy is  is this stuff clear for you guys man three things just remember first is a huge level where it pulls back and becomes a hammer second  is there should be a huge move on a daily chart   and third is it should make a  hammer candle it shouldn't be   it shouldn't be any sort of other candles  it should be a strong hammer candle   all right that these three  things we look we love okay now it's just 25 [ __ ] minutes all right and  we have [ __ ] finished one strategy that   that have made me like um you know maybe  like i kind of [ __ ] tell you guys the   money because i'm kind of a little bit i'm not a  very very money person guy you know what i mean   um i'm just like you catch your move don't even  look at money you catch a movie you did your job   let's see like i went to the barber he's trying  to learn how to trade uh he told me like he was   so happy that he got a move and he made whatever  money i told him when you finish your when you   finish your cut what do you do do you [ __ ]  you know jump all over and you [ __ ] excited   like no like that's your job you know that's  why you don't get happy in trading finding a   setup and executing it and making money is your  [ __ ] job it should not trigger any sort of   happiness or any sort of sadness if you catch if  if you take a loss does that make sense man that's   pretty much it guys and no no one got in cautions  and if you still have had any questions when   you're back testing stuff out please feel free  to reach me out on my discord i'm always there   i'm ready to help um and just like all i need is  like just [ __ ] just blessings right you know   so that's it thank you guys thank you everybody

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