This Setup Helps You Enter Before the Crowd | Himanshu Arora
One-time — gone on refresh. Copy it and paste as a YouTube comment.
Why 3.5/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✓ A real but modest per-trade edge: +0.18R across 10,332 trades
- ✓ Convex payoff 3.1 — winners far bigger than losers
- ✕ Only 32% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 3 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2025, 2026) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -25% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: Multi-timeframe MACD + EMA crossover intraday scalping strategy: 30-min MACD trend filter + 5-min EMA(5/15/50) entry signal with profit-target exit. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 10,332 trades, win 32%, payoff 3.13, expectancy +0.18R/trade (avg +0.88%/trade).
This is a real edge. The payoff is convex (winners run well past the average loser). Reasonably consistent (67% of years positive).
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)
Tracking since 2026-07-06 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +9% | -7% | +62% | +29% | -1% | +18% | -4% | -3% | -4% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 572 | 33% | -0.07R | -0.64% |
| 2019 | 1323 | 29% | +0.02R | -0.07% |
| 2020 | 1173 | 40% | +0.59R | +4.37% |
| 2021 | 1261 | 34% | +0.31R | +1.75% |
| 2022 | 1337 | 30% | +0.05R | +0.11% |
| 2023 | 1281 | 38% | +0.69R | +2.85% |
| 2024 | 1345 | 28% | +0.02R | -0.05% |
| 2025 | 1498 | 25% | -0.07R | -0.72% |
| 2026 | 542 | 26% | -0.15R | -0.70% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 58 | 36% | +10.2% | +162% | +591% | +55% |
| 2 | ████████ | 72 | 33% | +0.7% | +44% | +53% | +39% |
| 3 | ████████ | 56 | 36% | +2.5% | +92% | +142% | +38% |
| 4 | ████████ | 62 | 40% | +7.9% | +99% | +488% | +37% |
| 5 | ████████ | 60 | 42% | +8.4% | +143% | +504% | +35% |
| 6 | ████████ | 56 | 38% | +6.7% | +133% | +375% | +33% |
| 7 | ████████ | 65 | 34% | +5.3% | +125% | +345% | +27% |
| 8 | BANDHANBNK free peek | 27 | 22% | -2.0% | +15% | -54% | +25% |
| 9 | ████████ | 65 | 31% | +1.6% | +57% | +106% | +24% |
| 10 | ████████ | 62 | 37% | +4.0% | +77% | +249% | +21% |
| 11 | ████████ | 55 | 42% | +4.2% | +61% | +231% | +20% |
| 12 | ████████ | 60 | 42% | +1.1% | +39% | +66% | +17% |
| 13 | ████████ | 76 | 28% | +0.6% | +72% | +46% | +17% |
| 14 | ████████ | 45 | 22% | +1.0% | +65% | +44% | +17% |
| 15 | ████████ | 63 | 37% | +2.1% | +48% | +131% | +16% |
| 16 | ████████ | 67 | 36% | +1.7% | +56% | +113% | +16% |
| 17 | ████████ | 75 | 32% | +1.3% | +40% | +97% | +16% |
| 18 | ████████ | 66 | 23% | +0.1% | +52% | +8% | +14% |
| 19 | ████████ | 77 | 26% | -1.1% | +27% | -81% | +13% |
| 20 | ████████ | 65 | 34% | +2.4% | +103% | +159% | +12% |
| 21 | ████████ | 71 | 24% | +0.4% | +46% | +28% | -30% |
| 22 | ████████ | 67 | 30% | +0.8% | +46% | +55% | -29% |
| 23 | ████████ | 65 | 31% | +0.3% | +46% | +16% | -25% |
| 24 | ████████ | 34 | 32% | +1.1% | +60% | +37% | -24% |
| 25 | ████████ | 73 | 34% | -0.5% | +15% | -36% | -23% |
| 26 | ████████ | 59 | 27% | +0.6% | +31% | +35% | -21% |
| 27 | ████████ | 71 | 28% | +0.2% | +38% | +17% | -20% |
| 28 | ████████ | 72 | 28% | -0.4% | +24% | -31% | -19% |
| 29 | ████████ | 70 | 30% | +0.2% | +33% | +12% | -19% |
| 30 | ████████ | 70 | 23% | +0.5% | +44% | +33% | -18% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 83 | 37% | +0.24R | +0.45% |
| BANKNIFTY | 86 | 38% | +0.27R | +0.51% |
Full transcript (3204 words)
💬 Trader reviews (traded this? tell others what really happened)
No reviews yet — be the first. Real experiences help other traders more than any backtest.
User opinions, not investment advice. Reviews are moderated before publishing.