R
RSI + Stochastics / ADX Oversold Dip
YouTube
Analysed 01 Jul 2026, 11:31 PM IST
Detected components (auto-read from transcript)
Claims it makes (quotes pulled from the transcript)
- “Filter for uptrends with ADX>25 & +DI>−DI, then buy only when RSI(5) drops below 30 (deep oversold). Stop below the signal candle.”
Verdict
A beautifully convex setup — the raw RSI<30 version produced a +105R winner and ~90 trades over 5R. The ADX trend filter is, again, a sensible idea.
How we tested it
Wilder ADX(14) + RSI(5), daily, 159 large/mid + 138 small-caps, 8 years, 0.25% cost. Tested the raw 'buy at RSI<30' (knife) vs waiting for RSI to turn back up (bounce).
But it's net negative: only 16% of falling knives bounce, too few to clear the losers even at 4.5× payoff. Waiting for confirmation lifts the win rate to 40% but collapses the tail to breakeven. And it's bull-beta — positive in 2020/21/23, negative 2024/25/26. The convex tail it does have is the same small-cap fat tail the breakout book already harvests, more efficiently.
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