Revealing My Profitable Trading Strategy

Initial capital was almost like 60 lakhs. Uh when I started in 2019 right now ranges from anywhere from 4 to 7 year depending on uh the strategies that I put across. I think overall I would say I have a corpus of let's say about 100 close to about 50 to 60% came from salary or the job. I would say remaining 20% came from stocks and the remaining 20 to 30% came from um trading. So, and trading gave me the confidence that I'll be able to really survive even if I do not have a full-time [music] job. The one of the main um main reason for me to [music] quit the job was when I saw I'm able to make more money in the trading uh especially 2024 that point of time 2020 just after Pongal January 17th or 18th whatever that date from there I'm trading daily I did not miss a single day. So so far after if I remove the initial to do [music] 1 to two years of losses but uh approximate I'm able to make about uh anywhere from 18 to 22%. Sometimes it's more than that. That's the returns I'm able to generate. Typically what I do is I put the money into stocks or the mutual funds. I pledge that money and I [music] use that money for the option selling because you can pretty much use that. So I will um look at two strategies which are my favorite. one is directional, one is the nondirectional which is the probability based [music] model. So let me spend some time on the directional trade. So I built uh one indicator on the trading which is um freely available for everybody to use. So this is called adaptive super trend. This is uh little different than what a normal super trend does. Normal super trend uh I think most of the traders would know this is based on the ATR. there is a multiplier and then the factor ATR stands for average true range depending on the how the stock moves in a >> [music] >> um range of let's say how the stock moves in a range given a time frame like 15 minutes 1 hour so depending on that there is a multiplier and then there is a factor I'm not getting technical [music] details of how the super trend is calculated but the adaptive super trend is markets generally if you take any [music] instrument right they do not behave uh one instrument is always different from the other instrument I think one of the biggest flaw is if you try to use [music] super trend in all the instruments equally then you will not get the right results. So adapt to super trend it got about seven different ways to [music] calculate the super trend. So either you change the let's say factor or you change the multiplier or you change the time frame one of those things you will be able to really change but from the users perspective it's very easy either they would pick up apply the super trend and then pick up let's say 15 minutes or 45 minutes or 1 hour time frame and then you can see [music] in the screen here when you apply for 15 minutes right you got to see a lot of greens [music] here what does this mean let's say if you have taken this trades for let's say 60 days I had put a time frame Here let me show that very quickly. So there is the 60 days um the [music] performance which is actually measured here. So uh one of the super that it picked up is [music] the dynamic. So that gave about uh 2,700 points. So and also [music] this you can see here it also gives what are the points that is giving for an average trade. So average trade [music] is basically uh in a 60 days time frame. This would have probably taken about uh maybe 30 trades or [music] 40 trades. Each trade how many points it is given. So now this is so easy to use. You apply this on 15 minutes or 10 minutes whatever it is. And then if everything is green which means that on this particular instrument [music] this part time frame is working. For instance, if I'm going to I'm going to change this to for instance maybe 1 day and then see what happens. So you can see uh in 1 day time frame you got to see a lot of reds here which [music] means that on nifty for instance 1 day time frame we should not be using it. If you use we will end up losing money. So you can actually take one more for instance reliance and then see whether it's going to work reliance also it is pretty [music] much everything is red. So let me now uh change this to let's say 15 minutes and then see whether it's going to be maybe 20 minutes and then see whether it is going to be anything better. Uh so I think 20 minutes obviously looks better and then um you can go to 15 minutes and then see 15 minutes also definitely good that is the indicator is [music] so easy anybody can take the directional this is I would say longshot trade what I meant is uh for instance if you apply nifty the way which I would do is um I have to do manually for instance if a user if they wanted to use this particular indicator what they have to do is when there is a sell signal for instance they sell the call option and then the signal continued uh till here. When the signal reaches here, this is long short trade, right? So this point of time they'll have to exit the call option and then they need to now sell the put option. That's as simple as it gets. Important thing is somebody would always be on the trade. So and then um whether they are able to make the money or not this particular penal table would directly decide. Uh the important thing is because this I applied on the instrument uh but then if they get into options selling they'll also get an advantage of um time ticket which I did not factor here but that is an addition advantage they're able to get. So one more my favorite strategy which [music] is I would say bread and butter strategy which I've been using from 2021. [music] This is not meant for intraday. You have to either do for weekly or the week plus one [music] or monthly kind of thing. So, but right now I'm going to demonstrate um the weekly strategy, right? So, again, this is um not a prescribed [music] strategy, but this is a concept. So, what I did was in this program, what I did was uh we have expiries [music] until last year September 3rd till Thursday and then after September 3rd, we got into Tuesday. So I got the precise dates of when the expiry starts expiring and then uh look at um how the nifty behaved in those expiries. If you take weekly expiries right so how many times nifty would expire below 2% 3% how many times [music] nifty would expire above 3% 2%. So that's the thing you got to see all the percentages [music] here for instance if you really look at right so let me zoom it for you. If you look at uh 3.4% and 4% here which is basically if you go here this side maybe [music] let's look at this one 96% right so what it says is um from this is the time frame we got here so from 2021 to 20264 which is today um close to 96% of times nifty expired below 3.5% that is the that is what we'll have to look at so and then if you go to bottom uh again the similar number Let's look at let's say - 3.5% right. So - 3.5% [music] it says that close to 96%. So now this gives some confidence saying that if you take this trade 100 times which is basically weekly [music] expiry you go 3.5% up 3.5% down there is a 90% probability that your trade is going to work. But then this rate got to be taken multiple times not just one once but then multiple times. So typically the way which I do is um if you take a strangle uh [music] which is selling the call option 3% above or 3.5% above selling a put option 3.5% at the starting of the expiry. Now if you do this 100 times there is uh 90% of times it is going to work. Now the question is what happens in the remaining 10% times. I think this goes back to my earlier philosophy. When the trade goes against you it is important that we define our risk management. what kind of amount that we would like to lose or we can afford to lose. So again there are a lot of ways to manage this. Sometimes you would probably uh put a let's say you put a hedge probably close to your short option so that you will not actually get into too much of loss. That is one way to do that. The other way to do that is you can do lot of adjustments. So that's how you will actually manage the trade. But then this is my philosophy I'm doing for multiple years. This works well. If somebody got one or two lakhs, trading is not the place for them to really get in. So basic definition of the markets is capital markets. It's capital [music] intensive. I mean generally when people ask me my personal sation would be at least anywhere from 10 to 20 lakhs to start with. Anything below that. One thing is it is not worth their time. The second one is uh they might probably end up losing all the money if it is below that. The reason is they [music] do not have any space to adjust the trades. So it is important for the trader to understand what strategy suits to their uh mindset. That is very important. For instance, uh somebody uh doesn't have lot of patience or somebody wanted to do a a very quick trades and come out right. So for them doing a monthly strategies may not really work. So or somebody wants to really make quick money. Uh for them the scalping would work and vice versa. somebody doesn't have that ability to take the stress or the pressure the scalping doesn't work to them and options buying would not work to them. If somebody has a lot of patience and then um can wait for lot more days to see their trade is going to give money. Those people if they try to do scalping [music] they will be absolute failure. A lot of times what would happen traders would actually speak to [music] somebody who is fairly successful and then they think that if scalping worked for them it will work for me and then if the uh short triangles worked for them it is going to work for me. So that I think are sometimes a lot of people get exited with expiry trades and they'll see some of their friends making money they suddenly think that I can also make money. So that my view would not work. So I think very similar to if you take any sports examples right so you can't expect uh a tendulkar to do a good wicket keeping [music] it doesn't work they need to really find uh what kind of mindset that they have what kind of trading style that they need to adapt to I think once they do that I think it will be a lot more success personally I like uh waiting for the trades there is a lot of patience that I put in and that's the reason I tend to do even the longdated trades like today I run like December trades which is another 6 months from now I'm okay to wait. Sometimes people do not have the patience to wait for a trade. They would have probably waited for long and then uh they think that okay now I must take a trade. So which I think a beginner should uh definitely a wait. So my view uh let's say somebody takes a trade they should be able to explain to let's say if their friend calls saying that why did you take a trade I'm not expecting a 12 years old soul to understand but then if their friend calls one more trader they should be able to explain saying that this is the reason that I took a trade these are the underlying assumptions these are all the this is the data that I analyze to take this trade and this is the reason why my trade I think is going to go in my favor so they should be able to explain the trade to them [music] So my view ups and lows are uh true in any career anybody's career it could be sportsman or even the movie actor right so nobody will have super hits all the times or super success on the ground trading is uh absolutely similar the reason is let's say what are the strategies that worked last year there is no guarantee that they work this year so somebody has to really learn the things and then adapt to the new environment [music] but keeping that aside the way which I would look at is the last making days I will [music] always look at some bit of a retrospection what happened. So usually any trade that I take there is an underlying assumption. Underlying assumption could be either the market will go up or uh go down or stay flat. [music] Any of those things right? So but then that assumption when it comes to reality could be very different. The way which I would look at is what is the basis for my assumption and then why the trade went wrong. That is easiest one to take. But the lot of times including me we tend to do overtrading or we also tend to do a trade based on the greed [snorts] trade based on the fear. So some of these things nobody can uh help some of these things we had to overcome ourselves and we need to go through that phase. [snorts] So even if you read 100 books unless somebody experience the greed fear and then [music] um take some impulsive trade and then get a hit that got to be experienced. Even if I say that do not take impulsive trade to 100 people, I don't think they will listen to that. So I think every trader will go through that phase. They have to experience themselves. Maybe in that experience period or experimental period, they should not lose a lot of money. That's all. Um most of my strategies I look at fixed profit and fixed loss. So generally even when you take a trade, right, you mostly know when to quit the trade or when to stay onto the trade. That's the first important thing. Second uh very important thing is when uh trade is going into losses lot of times it doesn't make sense to average it out. The reason is anyway it's a falling knife. [music] Important thing is to understand why the trade is going against us and then uh if it is a randomness we can't do much but if it is let's say if there is a reason for the trade to fall or the losses to fall then better to stop and then we can always take a fresh trade. So that's very important. From May 1st to May 10th, uh I made money every day and overall each day was like 1 or 2% and uh by the time I reached May 10th, I think it's about close to about 22% or whatever within those days. The reason was I'll tell you that point of the elections were going on in the phases and then I were quite spiked up. So and then May 13, 2024, there was a midcap [music] nifty expiry. So far always took a contra trade. Contrade in the sense if there is a gap up, I would actually sell the call options assuming that it's going to fall down and if it is is a gap down, I would sell the put options. But then that day midcap [music] nifty acted exactly opposite to me. So out of the 22% I pretty much lost about 18% in a single day. That was the biggest uh loss that I had. So generally now what I do is if I'm losing the trades let's say 2 three days continuously I close everything and then I take the fresh [music] trades I do not want to really continue them. Trading is still a profitable venture. Uh suppose if you pick up any startup in Bangalore or even the movie industry or even the restaurant business [music] close to 95% would be failures. So that way trading is still a profitable thing and uh if somebody has the right skill set, right risk management and the right way to really take the trades without losing money, they still can make money and uh lot of times even if you take let's say I'm trying to compare with movie industry now if you take movie industry we do not know what the audience would like but at least in the trading you know what are [music] your strengths what you can do what you can't do and you know when to quit when not to quit. So with that I think there's a lot of control in trading compared to other industries. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing. 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