Renko Trading Strategy Masterclass | Trading for Beginners | Trading Strategy | Candlestick Pattern
One-time — gone on refresh. Copy it and paste as a YouTube comment.
Why 4.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✓ Strong per-trade edge: +0.49R expectancy across 345 trades
- ✓ Convex payoff 3.2 — winners far bigger than losers
- ✕ Only 35% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 3 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2021, 2025) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -31% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: Renko chart trend-following with ATR-based brick size; buy/sell on colored brick reversals (one-back bullish/bearish, two-back bullish/bearish, zigzag patterns) — primarily demonstrated on Bitcoin/Eth Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 345 trades, win 35%, payoff 3.21, expectancy +0.49R/trade (avg +3.35%/trade).
This is a real edge. The payoff is convex (winners run well past the average loser). Reasonably consistent (67% of years positive).
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)
Tracking since 2026-10-19 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -12% | -1% | +47% | +12% | +7% | +5% | +16% | -4% | -2% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 19 | 0% | -1.05R | -6.70% |
| 2019 | 65 | 31% | +0.16R | +1.04% |
| 2020 | 111 | 45% | +1.29R | +9.08% |
| 2021 | 28 | 25% | -0.09R | +0.18% |
| 2022 | 8 | 50% | +1.20R | +7.27% |
| 2023 | 58 | 29% | +0.32R | +1.29% |
| 2024 | 14 | 57% | +1.10R | +6.06% |
| 2025 | 22 | 27% | -0.34R | -1.97% |
| 2026 | 20 | 45% | +0.12R | +1.46% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 2 | 50% | +6.8% | +21% | +14% | +21% |
| 2 | ████████ | 2 | 100% | +31.4% | +43% | +63% | +20% |
| 3 | ████████ | 3 | 67% | +15.5% | +40% | +46% | +20% |
| 4 | ████████ | 3 | 67% | +12.2% | +34% | +37% | +9% |
| 5 | ████████ | 2 | 50% | -0.2% | +8% | +0% | +8% |
| 6 | ████████ | 3 | 100% | +11.3% | +18% | +34% | +6% |
| 7 | ████████ | 4 | 75% | +14.6% | +30% | +58% | +5% |
| 8 | ADANIENT free peek | 4 | 50% | +9.1% | +52% | +36% | +3% |
| 9 | ████████ | 1 | 100% | +2.9% | +3% | +3% | +3% |
| 10 | ████████ | 1 | 100% | +87.7% | +88% | +88% | +0% |
| 11 | ████████ | 2 | 100% | +40.6% | +47% | +81% | +0% |
| 12 | ████████ | 4 | 50% | +19.4% | +67% | +77% | +0% |
| 13 | ████████ | 1 | 100% | +54.1% | +54% | +54% | +0% |
| 14 | ████████ | 2 | 100% | +23.9% | +25% | +48% | +0% |
| 15 | ████████ | 1 | 100% | +46.5% | +47% | +47% | +0% |
| 16 | ████████ | 3 | 33% | +14.2% | +52% | +43% | +0% |
| 17 | ████████ | 1 | 100% | +43.2% | +43% | +43% | +0% |
| 18 | ████████ | 2 | 50% | +21.4% | +49% | +43% | +0% |
| 19 | ████████ | 3 | 67% | +13.6% | +29% | +41% | +0% |
| 20 | ████████ | 1 | 100% | +34.5% | +35% | +35% | +0% |
| 21 | ████████ | 3 | 0% | -7.2% | +-6% | -22% | -8% |
| 22 | ████████ | 3 | 0% | -6.2% | +-5% | -18% | -7% |
| 23 | ████████ | 3 | 67% | +19.5% | +62% | +59% | -7% |
| 24 | ████████ | 3 | 67% | +26.8% | +58% | +80% | -7% |
| 25 | ████████ | 3 | 0% | -6.6% | +-6% | -20% | -6% |
| 26 | ████████ | 2 | 0% | -6.0% | +-6% | -12% | -6% |
| 27 | ████████ | 3 | 0% | -5.2% | +-4% | -16% | -5% |
| 28 | ████████ | 3 | 33% | -1.2% | +10% | -4% | -5% |
| 29 | ████████ | 2 | 50% | -0.7% | +3% | -1% | -5% |
| 30 | ████████ | 3 | 67% | +6.2% | +15% | +19% | -5% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 5 | 20% | +0.44R | +1.81% |
Full transcript (5770 words)
💬 Trader reviews (traded this? tell others what really happened)
No reviews yet — be the first. Real experiences help other traders more than any backtest.
User opinions, not investment advice. Reviews are moderated before publishing.