PRO TRADERS- Renko की Secret Strategy #tradingstrategy #cryptotrading
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Why 3.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✓ A real but modest per-trade edge: +0.27R across 3,947 trades
- ✕ Only 35% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 4 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2022, 2025, 2026) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -34% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
- ✕ Most of the big total return is compounding in a rising market (beta) — the per-trade edge above is what would survive a different regime
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: Renko candlestick trend-following strategy using EMA-20 as entry trigger (two red boxes below EMA-20 = short, two green boxes above = long) with 1:3 risk-reward exit, demonstrated on Bitcoin, Ethereum Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 3,947 trades, win 35%, payoff 2.67, expectancy +0.27R/trade (avg +1.49%/trade).
This is a real edge. The payoff is convex (winners run well past the average loser). Reasonably consistent (56% of years positive).
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +13% | -9% | +36% | +2% | -1% | +11% | +6% | -5% | +4% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 248 | 35% | -0.18R | -1.15% |
| 2019 | 437 | 34% | +0.04R | +0.19% |
| 2020 | 425 | 50% | +0.91R | +8.25% |
| 2021 | 434 | 38% | +0.33R | +2.01% |
| 2022 | 570 | 29% | -0.05R | -0.63% |
| 2023 | 509 | 46% | +1.26R | +5.39% |
| 2024 | 515 | 27% | +0.08R | +0.06% |
| 2025 | 510 | 30% | -0.06R | -0.66% |
| 2026 | 299 | 28% | -0.22R | -1.21% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 26 | 35% | +3.5% | +56% | +91% | +44% |
| 2 | ████████ | 22 | 32% | +3.3% | +44% | +72% | +44% |
| 3 | ████████ | 23 | 30% | +2.1% | +46% | +48% | +43% |
| 4 | ████████ | 31 | 39% | +10.0% | +77% | +309% | +42% |
| 5 | ████████ | 26 | 38% | +3.7% | +68% | +96% | +39% |
| 6 | ████████ | 28 | 50% | +22.1% | +182% | +620% | +37% |
| 7 | ████████ | 24 | 42% | +4.6% | +53% | +110% | +36% |
| 8 | BANDHANBNK free peek | 10 | 30% | -0.1% | +24% | -1% | +29% |
| 9 | ████████ | 26 | 58% | +9.6% | +122% | +249% | +26% |
| 10 | ████████ | 22 | 55% | +8.0% | +55% | +175% | +26% |
| 11 | ████████ | 14 | 36% | +5.4% | +53% | +76% | +18% |
| 12 | ████████ | 28 | 36% | -0.3% | +18% | -9% | +17% |
| 13 | ████████ | 28 | 50% | +2.9% | +30% | +81% | +14% |
| 14 | ████████ | 28 | 32% | +2.3% | +56% | +64% | +14% |
| 15 | ████████ | 27 | 26% | +1.5% | +65% | +41% | +14% |
| 16 | ████████ | 27 | 41% | +3.7% | +58% | +99% | +13% |
| 17 | ████████ | 23 | 48% | +1.1% | +15% | +25% | +12% |
| 18 | ████████ | 29 | 45% | +2.2% | +33% | +64% | +11% |
| 19 | ████████ | 26 | 35% | +6.6% | +115% | +171% | +10% |
| 20 | ████████ | 26 | 46% | +3.0% | +40% | +79% | +10% |
| 21 | ████████ | 8 | 50% | +4.8% | +50% | +39% | -24% |
| 22 | ████████ | 30 | 33% | +2.6% | +50% | +78% | -24% |
| 23 | ████████ | 28 | 36% | +3.2% | +56% | +91% | -22% |
| 24 | ████████ | 30 | 23% | -0.9% | +56% | -27% | -18% |
| 25 | ████████ | 24 | 29% | +2.4% | +60% | +57% | -17% |
| 26 | ████████ | 29 | 34% | +3.0% | +55% | +87% | -16% |
| 27 | ████████ | 26 | 31% | -0.2% | +27% | -4% | -15% |
| 28 | ████████ | 29 | 21% | -0.1% | +36% | -4% | -15% |
| 29 | ████████ | 26 | 35% | -0.1% | +49% | -3% | -15% |
| 30 | ████████ | 26 | 46% | +3.9% | +42% | +100% | -15% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 41 | 44% | +0.57R | +1.59% |
| BANKNIFTY | 39 | 44% | +0.47R | +1.58% |
Full transcript (2229 words)
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