A powerful Pivot Point trading strategy — backtested on Indian market data | FakeTrades
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A powerful Pivot Point trading strategy

Tradeciety.com · watch on YouTube ↗
Analysed 01 Aug 2026, 03:16 PM IST
★☆☆☆☆ 1.0 / 5

Why 1.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)

  • Negative expectancy: -0.24R per trade across 28,458 trades
  • Payoff 0.60 — the average winner is SMALLER than the average loser
  • 9 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2019, 2020, 2021) — the edge is regime-dependent

Detected components (auto-read from transcript)

SMA/MAPivot pointsStochastic

Verdict

Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: Pivot-point rejection & breakout strategy: trade rejections at daily/intraday central pivot points and trend-line breaks; mechanical level-revisit rule testable on daily/intraday bars. We isolated the one mechanical claim — a day-of-week bias where a prior session's level is expected to be 'revisited'/swept — and traded it short across 159 large/mid-caps with real costs: 28,458 trades, win 49%, expectancy -0.24R/trade (avg -0.24%/trade).

The result is a high win-rate that still loses money after costs — a negative-skew mirage: small targets, larger adverse moves. A directional lean can be statistically real yet still fail to pay once you attach a target, a stop and costs.

Mechanically decoded and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review.

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🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)

Tracking since 2026-07-06 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.

Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)

Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)

YearTradesWin %ExpectancyAvg return / trade
2018171547% -0.21R -0.26%
2019346750% -0.22R -0.21%
2020322748% -0.05R -0.11%
2021338049% -0.30R -0.33%
2022384258% -0.06R -0.10%
2023364241% -0.41R -0.34%
2024352142% -0.37R -0.34%
2025403349% -0.30R -0.26%
2026163156% -0.15R -0.17%

Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)

#StockTradesWin%Avg/tradeBestTotal2026
1 ████████ 18852% -0.1% +6% -16% +6%
2 ████████ 17949% -0.3% +7% -47% +5%
3 ████████ 19253% -0.1% +6% -13% +4%
4 ████████ 5657% -0.3% +2% -15% +4%
5 ████████ 18948% -0.2% +10% -46% +4%
6 ████████ 19242% -0.3% +9% -59% +4%
7 ████████ 15043% -0.5% +4% -76% +4%
8 IDFCFIRSTB free peek 17953% -0.0% +11% -8% +3%
9 ████████ 18252% -0.1% +9% -10% +3%
10 ████████ 17854% -0.1% +3% -9% +2%
11 ████████ 19251% -0.1% +7% -14% +2%
12 ████████ 10551% -0.2% +5% -22% +2%
13 ████████ 18750% -0.2% +3% -39% +2%
14 ████████ 17549% -0.2% +3% -40% +2%
15 ████████ 18849% -0.2% +4% -44% +2%
16 ████████ 17050% -0.3% +3% -46% +2%
17 ████████ 17951% -0.3% +5% -46% +2%
18 ████████ 18350% -0.3% +6% -47% +2%
19 ████████ 16545% -0.3% +2% -49% +2%
20 ████████ 18849% -0.3% +3% -51% +2%
21 ████████ 19050% -0.4% +3% -70% -13%
22 ████████ 18642% -0.3% +10% -60% -9%
23 ████████ 18847% -0.3% +3% -56% -9%
24 ████████ 18653% -0.1% +13% -25% -9%
25 ████████ 18843% -0.3% +8% -48% -8%
26 ████████ 18350% -0.2% +11% -37% -8%
27 ████████ 18048% -0.2% +7% -32% -8%
28 ████████ 18543% -0.4% +3% -73% -7%
29 ████████ 15148% -0.3% +3% -48% -7%
30 ████████ 20644% -0.2% +6% -43% -7%
You can see the numbers — see the names. Unlock every stock in this breakdown and download it as Excel. The worst stock in this table returned -76% under these exact rules — one wrong pick costs many times the unlock.

Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)

IndexTradesWin%Expectancy (R/trade)Avg return/trade
NIFTY24235% -0.55R -0.19%
BANKNIFTY25445% -0.41R -0.18%
Full transcript (2075 words)
in this video I will share pivot point trading strategies and how to use pivot points in your trading so allah welcome back and let's talk about pivot points today i got asked a lot and moritz is using a day trading strategy where he uses pivot points and ever since we are doing the master class together and i get more exposure towards his trading approach I started looking into pivot points more so let's take a look at how to use pivot points in your trading so what our pivot points pivot points are used often as support resistance level and for other purposes but we need to look one step earlier at what our pivot points and how are they calculated so pivot points are very very simple to calculate and there's always a central pivot point it could be your daily your weekly or monthly depending on the time frame and it always follows the same calculation you take the low you add the high and you take the close of the period you sum them up and then you divide them by three so you have an average of the high the close and the low the the pivot point does not automatically fall in the middle between the high and the low obviously because the close can be higher to the high it can be closer to the low and the pivot point is just an average all of those three points when you look at the pivot points you will see that above and below the central pivot point which is the one here in red you have pivot point levels such as the s1 s2 it goes all the way until s4 or s5 and above the central pivot points you have resistance pivot points such as R 1 and R 2 R 3 R 4 and so on and the way they are used is that you add the high and the low and the distances towards from them to the central pivot point in this video I'm going to share only central pivot point trading strategies so we are not going to take a look at the R and the s pivot points so I'm not going to take a very deep look at how to calculate them and what they are so we are going to take a look at central pivot point strategies you can use them obviously in many many different ways and what we are going to do is we're going to use them as support and resistance and we're going to use them as breakout pivot points and rejection areas so we're going to look at where is the central pivot point for the day or for the week depending on which time frame you choose and then we're going to use them to make trading decisions and to find trading opportunities so for example here on the left hand side and put at point 1 & 2 the central pivot point here in red acted as a support level then it was a rejection level at 2 it was the same after the market traded away from the pivot points from the central pivot point as but specifically it was rejected here it moved to the next pivot point and here it was rejected twice again and then it entered a range after it also found resistance at the r1 pivot point so you can see pivot points the daily and r1 r2 and the s levels are often used as resistance and support at point four we are going to look at the rejection first you can't see the market rejected the central pivot point first and then a breakout was initiated away from the pivot point this is something that we're going to lake a look at in a bit this is a very popular trading strategy that can be applied right away but first of all the first trading approach to daily pivot points and central pivot points specifically are rejections rejections or pivot points are very very common so here for example we are using it on the 15-minute time frame but you can just as well use it on one hour on the 4 hour and go even up to the higher time frame such as the daily or even higher so what you are going to look for is the market move into the central pivot point and then you look for rejection here in this case you have a double failed breakout attempt above the central pivot point the market was rejected twice and then after rejection was confirmed the market traded lower so you could use this as an indication to look for better setups maybe even on the lower timeframes or you add other tools such as moving average maybe or a stochastic - time your traits here as well after this town training lag the market makes a little bit of consolidation try to initiate a rally was rejected again on the next day at the central pivot point you can't see on a downtrend the central pivot points will move lower obviously because the high the low and the close are lower compared to the day before and again the market tried to break above the highs was rejected again at the pivot point and then continued its downfall here as well you have rejection of a central pivot point with a candlestick bar so here in this example you can't see the market here was the previous day's pivot point then the market tried to sell in - it was rejected try to pull away try to break out with a very strong breakout attempt but was rejected and then the new Uptrend started so sometimes you can see an immediate rejection with a pin bar of a or around a central pivot point and if you can't see that with the pin bar and then the next candle was a very very strong momentum bar then you can have a very good idea that the market doesn't have enough power to stay below the pivot point and then the rally started afterwards here again very very similar at point one you can't see that in this case the the central pivot point before that was higher so the market was in a downtrend and then the market sold back into the or rallied back into the central pivot point it was resistance here and then here the market tried to break out was rejected and the next candle here was super strong so again a very high momentum bar was indicating that not only was the market rejecting the pivot point but the market was also selling off at the same time so very very strong selling signal and then the market plunged into the s2 level where it then found support on the next day I tried to rally back into the pivot point again very similar to what has happened here a rejection first as a normal normal resistance and then a fake breakout attempt the market also gave you in this case a trendline and you can often add trend lines very very nicely around pivot point structures as we will see in next few slides so he can't see very nice resistance or the pivot point held as resistance here very nicely at the lows you can draw a trend line the trend wave was broken and then retested and then the market went lower very sharply he again a few more pivot point rejection examples the market rallied into the central pivot point got rejected and then traded back into the lower s1 and then into the s2 level on the next day the market try to break out again above the highs and above the central pivot point but was rejected came back into the level and it held again as resistance and then again it sold off into the s2 level so in a downtrend and you can see previously the market was also in a downtrend because the central point is higher than this one so the market was already coming down in a downtrend you will often see that the market is coming back to retest the pivot point and if you see that the retest is holding and you see such a failed rejection or a real rejection of failed breakout then you can often have an attempt for another bullish or bearish run in this case so trend continuation here in this example we can draw very nice trend lines and the market was in a downtrend you can see that here and here and here the central pivot point was always moving down and you can see the market comes into the central pivot points a few times tested at resistance the central pivot point is holding the trend line here is established very nicely and then on the break out the up through the down training leg is starting on the next day the same happens again the market is coming back into the pivot point it never is able to break above it very strong resistance here at the central pivot point and then on the trend line break the market sells off into s2 and on the next day the trend was even stronger to the downside the market was not able to pull into the pivot point and stay below it we have an eye another trend line and the market completely sort of again so seeing that the market keeps running back into a pivot point in a trending market as a pullback this could be your product strategy as well look for a trend line break out sometimes you will be able to draw a horizontal level of support resistance or you just simply wait for rejection with a strong pin bar or another a candlestick entry here as well very nice rejection you can't see the market is coming into the central pivot point very very good rejection here very strong candlestick and then the market rallies above it breaks above the trend line comes back into the trendline retest the trend line and then rallies and again here on the next day very early on in the next session the market tried to break the trendline to the downside who was rejected immediately and then the uptrend continued and the final example and you can see that all very very similar so this is something that you will find time and time again the market is coming he or is in a downtrend here comes back into the central pivot point is not able to break it establishes this very nice well-defined trendline breaks the trendline and sells off and on the next day again the market comes back into the central pivot point rejects it rejects it very very nicely it's not able to close close to the pivot point not able to break above it and then in this case you have a horizontal line the breakout happens very precisely and the market keeps selling off so pivot points are a true that you can use during trending phases for pullback strategies as well wait until the market gets to a central pivot point and then look for rejections maybe draw trend lines maybe see if you can find a horizontal support and resistance level and then once the market breaks such a structure then look for entries into the direction of the trend and use pivot points as your as your entry trigger or as your confirmation you could then use the s1 or s2 as targets as well if that is something that you would like to explore so I hope you like this video if you did make sure to give me a thumbs up on the video and you maybe have noticed that I disabled new advertising on this channel so I'm not annoying you anymore with advertising on this YouTube channel and if you want to keep it this way make sure to like and comment and share this channel as much as possible and if I see that there is a lot of positive feedback I will keep the ads disabled so until the next time happy trading

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