This Order Flow Pattern + Supply Zone Made $13,650 (LIVE TRADING) — backtested on Indian market data | FakeTrades
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This Order Flow Pattern + Supply Zone Made $13,650 (LIVE TRADING)

Carmine Rosato · watch on YouTube ↗
Analysed 01 Aug 2026, 03:16 PM IST
★★★★☆ 4.0 / 5

Why 4.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)

  • Strong per-trade edge: +0.36R expectancy across 13,425 trades
  • Convex payoff 3.3 — winners far bigger than losers
  • Only 32% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
  • 5 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2019, 2022, 2025) — the edge is regime-dependent
  • Max drawdown -32% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way

Detected components (auto-read from transcript)

IntradaySwing VWAPDemand/Supply zonesVolume

Verdict

Auto-backtested. Detected: breakout of a recent high. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 13,425 trades, win 32%, payoff 3.25, expectancy +0.36R/trade (avg +1.84%/trade).

This is a real edge. The payoff is convex (winners run well past the average loser). Regime-dependent — positive in only 44% of years.

Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.

See strategies that scored 4★+ →
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🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)

Tracking since 2026-07-06 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.

Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)

₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)

Return+49.8%
CAGR+5.2%
Max drawdown-32.2%
Trades361 · 99 won
₹200,000 → ₹299,657  ·  2018-07-10 → 2026-06-08
201820192020202120222023202420252026
+1%+1%+33%+29%-9%+16%+3%-11%-11%

Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.

Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)

YearTradesWin %ExpectancyAvg return / trade
201865716% -0.59R -3.78%
2019131427% -0.02R -0.01%
2020181744% +0.99R +7.31%
2021180135% +0.44R +2.56%
2022166426% -0.07R -0.74%
2023211944% +1.32R +5.57%
2024183527% +0.13R +0.34%
2025150429% -0.02R -0.39%
202671422% -0.36R -1.72%

Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)

#StockTradesWin%Avg/tradeBestTotal2026
1 ████████ 8251% +25.3% +181% +2077% +198%
2 ████████ 9951% +19.0% +124% +1880% +159%
3 ████████ 7633% +3.6% +52% +277% +143%
4 ████████ 7842% +6.4% +85% +500% +137%
5 ████████ 7541% +9.0% +125% +672% +75%
6 ████████ 6936% +3.6% +101% +246% +71%
7 ████████ 9534% +2.6% +68% +246% +64%
8 CUMMINSIND free peek 10643% +6.8% +61% +717% +51%
9 ████████ 9440% +4.1% +66% +383% +40%
10 ████████ 4838% +4.1% +55% +198% +29%
11 ████████ 10234% +4.0% +65% +406% +27%
12 ████████ 9846% +7.5% +59% +738% +23%
13 ████████ 11134% +0.8% +32% +86% +19%
14 ████████ 10337% +3.2% +61% +332% +3%
15 ████████ 8136% -0.6% +15% -46% +1%
16 ████████ 9331% +3.1% +61% +293% +0%
17 ████████ 9239% +2.1% +32% +194% +0%
18 ████████ 8333% +2.0% +46% +170% +0%
19 ████████ 10031% +1.7% +50% +170% +0%
20 ████████ 8034% +0.2% +36% +19% +0%
21 ████████ 7027% +2.1% +60% +150% -46%
22 ████████ 9731% +2.8% +106% +269% -45%
23 ████████ 8921% -1.1% +34% -96% -40%
24 ████████ 8528% -0.0% +32% -3% -40%
25 ████████ 10830% +1.4% +69% +151% -37%
26 ████████ 7023% +0.1% +107% +7% -36%
27 ████████ 9520% -1.6% +33% -149% -35%
28 ████████ 9339% +1.2% +29% +115% -34%
29 ████████ 9033% +2.3% +69% +205% -34%
30 ████████ 10431% +2.2% +81% +232% -34%
You can see the numbers — see the names. Unlock every stock in this breakdown and download it as Excel. The worst stock in this table returned -149% under these exact rules — one wrong pick costs many times the unlock.

Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)

IndexTradesWin%Expectancy (R/trade)Avg return/trade
NIFTY17432% +0.04R -0.09%
BANKNIFTY16032% +0.20R +0.54%
Full transcript (4588 words)
In this video, I want to share the live trading session today that I hosted in the investor trade community. I want you all to hear my thought process. I want you all to see my analysis, my entries, my exits, my stop losses, and the overall trading setups and thesis. I ended today with a $13,000 profit. And in this live session, you're going to see me break down each of the setups. I'm going to go over the setup that I call a zero print. And briefly, what we're going to see the market rallying up into a level of resistance. We form what I call zero prints, which are denoted by these blue lines, and my overall thought process is looking for setups into these blue lines, which I call zero prints. I ended the day with a $13,000 profit, and you're going to see all four of the trades in a live setting. Before we begin, I recommend all of you to follow me on my Instagram. I'll post a link in the description below for this. I have a very important announcement coming up soon. On here, I post daily trading recaps along with really good trading tips and tricks that I guarantee you're just not going to find anywhere else on the internet. Again, the link for this is in the description below. Without further ado, let's get right into this video. All right, I think we're live. Good morning, everybody. Hopefully, everybody had a good weekend, extended weekend. How's everybody doing? Where plus when and why equals a trade. Where is my level of interest? When and why is my confirmation? And the context. Where plus when and why equals a trade. Sometimes, we'll have a good where level. We'll have a good where component. Where is the left market at? It's at a level of supply. It's at a level of demand. Market's going to open here in 2 seconds. Okay, we're open. Sometimes, we'll have, hey, we're at a good demand zone, or hey, we're at a good supply zone. And then we just have the where component. We don't have the when and why. Sometimes, we'll have a good when and why, and we won't have a good level of interest. When those two factors are in conjunction with one another, that's when a high probability setup comes for me. Okay, two levels to mark on your charts right now. 74 74, we have zero prints that formed here. 74 7 or 7 This is a tongue twister here. 75 74.75 zero print. 75 74.75 valid zero print. What's Thursday's high here? Hold on a second. Or when Yeah, when No, Wednesday's high. All right, so we did break Wednesday's high. Another zero print. 75 75. Looking for a rejection or some type of sellers to come in playing short targeting these two levels. Okay, tons of volume at the high. The high of day needs to break. Let me Let me fix this up here. Hold on a second. Okay, so the top of this FOMC prior to this range is 75 93. Okay, if we can break under If we can break under 75 84, which is this little swing low right here, I'm going to be looking for a short targeting the 75 75 75 74s. Needs to break under the 75 84 a little area of high volume that start There's also another zero print at the 84 and a and a quarters. And then more zero prints at the 82.75s. Okay, so we have a lot of zero prints that are forming here. 84 and a quarter. Okay, I'm watching it for under these 84s. I'm short at these 84s going for a 75 74 target. My stop loss is above the 87 and a halves. I'm in this thing short at the 84s going for a 74 target. Stop is break even. 74 74 7 75 74.75 is the last zero print. Just looking for 75 74.75. Okay, I like this pop here. So, when the market pops like this and it fails, this is also a good sign that sellers are reloading on the offer side as we're selling off. This quick little pop here at 9:34 as the market popped there, it's a good sign that sellers are reloading and selling on the on the way down. All I need is 74s 75 74 and and 3/4. We didn't even fill the 75 one yet. Okay, so we want to see this pop here fail. A not so good sign would be Hold on. A move back up into this area of high volume at like the 86s 84s. Uh it's my tag me out at break even. Let's see here. 84s is my stop. I exited at break even. Wow. All right, watching for a re-entry. Looking for a re-entry because we did not tag those zero prints. That was crazy. All right, so now I need to see a high day sweep. Looking for a high day sweep. So, we have just broken out above this FOMC swing high, 75.93. I can't long this with the with the zero prints on the price right there. I'm going to have the same plan and same scenario now. So, you see here how on the volume profile, this will also help me prevent shorting into randomly into this move. What I would need to see here now is a break back under this 75.85, 75.86 to 75.84 level. Um the reason for this is that this now market is breaking above this FOMC level of supply. Technically above that swing high. What I would need to see to for me to act upon a short would be a break down under the 75.86 level as this now is where the market has distributed the most amount of volume. This also is where the market formed this low at in the first 2-3 minutes. Uh so, I would need to see a break down of that like 75.86 to 75.84 for me to even consider a short uh with the current information. And I would still would target those zero prints. Um on that trade, do you see So, the real reason why I adjusted my stop to break even on that setup was once the market dumped from my 84 entry all the way down to the 76's and we missed the target by two points, for me it would not be a smart decision if the market rallies back up, especially back above this consolidation range here on Bookmap, to have my original stop loss. How I manage the trade once I'm in the trade is that if it moves in my favor like this and we stalled out and we missed my target by about a point. Hold on a second. We missed my target by about a point, there's no reason for me to continue to hold my trade to my originally planned stop loss if the market's disagreeing with my original analysis. And also waiting for the market to sell off here would help me from avoiding just shorting into the strength if I'm just completely wrong on the analysis. But I do have confidence that we will fill those zero prints at some point. Do I want them the market to fill out this low volume node? No, I really wouldn't even consider this a low volume node just because the market had traded through it to the downside. Here we go, hold on a second. I need to see the selling coming in under the 86's. Okay, on the footprint chart we do see a significant amount of selling volume coming in here on the current footprint bar. We see a pretty significant amount of selling, actually the most amount of selling that we've seen all session here. I'm short 86's. I'm short on the 86's, my stop's at the 89 and 1/2's. It's this previous swing high here targeting the 75 zero print. Short 86's, three point stop loss, 12 point reward. It's about a four to one R. The only thing that could stop this move down is we need these guys right here to go under water. We need to see the market break through these guys. Some selling is coming in, we could start seeing the selling really starting to step in here. 74 70 75 74 and 3/4's is my target on this. I'm looking to sell 90% there and hold 10% of it for a new low of day at the 71's for an extra about three points. But I need to see the 74 and 3/4 hit. Stop is now adjusted to break even. Yeah, I'm going to adjust it to break even my stop. We just took out this low right here and we have yet to fill both of those zero prints. They're still unfilled. Selling is building on the footprint chart. Most amount of selling at the high of the day there. Look at the high and look at the delta here. Most amount of selling at the high of the day. Selling is also now starting to really build and accumulate even more. We're right near target. I mean, it's a point or two away. All right, so if this break even hits again, I will look for another re-entry because now we're forming a significant low down here that we will have a ton of liquidity sitting right under it. It's right there, break even. Break even hit. All out. Damn, a point away from target, too. 3R to break even, not a good feeling. Looking for another re-entry though. This this low now becomes even more significant that we are forming a low here with the zero prints under the price. We're from another entry here. There's even another zero print, too. 75 and a quarters, three of them stacked down there with a with the low that formed right there. Break the 93s. Yeah, some more selling's even coming in here. I'm short the 89s again. I'm short the 89s. Stop's above the 94, 93 and a halves. Same plan. About four points of risk for about a 15-point reward. Lower high, we see the selling trying to come in. Ideally now need to see a break. I mean, in terms of step-by-step process, I now need to see a break back under that 86 level that we were watching for earlier. That probably is a little bit of a better confirmation with the selling that we're seeing here. Necessarily doesn't really validate the setup until that is broken. So, we could say this is a pretty premature entry, but I'm still going to get about a 4R on it. This this this trade This one feels a little different than the first two, to be honest. Not a not a huge fan of it. Think a better entry is under those 86s again. If we could get those 86s, it'll be nice. Can't lie, I'm not a huge fan of this setup until those 86's are taken out. 86's to 84's. This low that I have marked out right here, until that is taken out, which we're being it's being tested right now. 86's to 84's. Until that's taken out, I'm not the biggest fan of this setup. The inflection point here. Reason why do you favor a setup like this is now just because we're we're forming this clear low here. So, there's going to be traders that look to short that breakdown and put stop losses under this low here. So, the market recognizing this is going to make this an important reference point whether it hits today or tomorrow or later in the week. This low right here at the 76's, right above the zero prints, is just an important inflection point now. We're bouncing off the 86's. I don't like this. I may cover this at the 89's. All right, I'm going to take this off at the 90's. It's a three-tick loss right here just because the market is bouncing off these 85's. My new game plan is another test of this and a break of this, I'm I'm shorting it. The just because we supported this on this pullback here and I wasn't the biggest fan of my entry, I'm not going to hold this to my original stop loss. I'm going to adjust and adapt to this. If we can break under the 86's now, the 84's again, and if it is tested and it is broken with aggressive selling, I will look to short it and I'll get about a 10-12 point reward to the downside on it. Just think it's a little premature. I'm not too comfortable with my entry point that I had. If we did not have the zero prints here, I would not be shorting this, truthfully. If we did not have the zero prints at the 75's and 74's, I honestly would not be shorting this right now. But, what I really like about the structure that we're seeing right now is that when the market forms a clear level of support like this, let's even remove the zero prints. Let's just say they're not in the picture. When the market forms a clear level of support like this, where just for some odd reason it looks like somebody's buying it up directly above that. This now becomes an important reference point and most of the time, I wish I could say all the time, the market likes to test and or break these levels to pick up liquidity. And the problem that I have with longing this right now, and maybe I'm wrong on it, is that I find it difficult to long with zero prints about 20 points away right now. So, that's the problem that I have with longing it. But, that is just me. Can't believe that. Two Two ticks away from my target. My lower target was about a point and a half away. I just have a little bit of trust issues longing Longing this right now, to be honest with you guys. With how the market's trading, you could make money on both ends. I just have a little bit of trust issues longing the market. Still going to stick with my guns. Break under those 86s to 84s will trigger a move down into the zero prints. For me, again, I need to see an 86 break. It'll help me avoid shorting the strength. Guys, I just have trust issues with it. Look at this. Another high of day break that's kind of struggling for a potential entry here. It's another high of day fake out. Also see on the footprint what I like to see is if the market is at a level of interest, I like to see this where we move up, we pop, we fail, we see the positive delta. Market then builds some aggressive selling to the downside and now these pops should fail. So, let's see it if the market can remain under these seven These 96s where this delta is right here. I like this for a potential entry. I need to again see the 86s break, but I would not mind this for a potential entry if we remain under these 96s. I get a fill short here. For an entry short, I'm short the 90s, stops above the 95s, going for a 74 target. It's about a three to one R. Short the 90s, 95 stop loss, 74 target. Need to see a break under the 86s. I wish my entry was at the 93s, 94s, 95s because it would give me a little bit more room to breathe on this trade, but I like the confirmation at the high of the day. I like the selling that's coming in. I like the unfilled zero prints. The only piece to the puzzle that is missing is a break under the 86's to 84's. Let me look at this on the footprint. The high of the day rejection. It's a breakout above the high, positive delta breaking out. Market then builds aggressive selling as it's moving down. We tried to pop, we failed, we maintained under the 96's, and now the market's moving down. Again, an essential rule in this move is that 86's 84's need to be broken. That's an essential rule in this in this trade right now. Now, the reason why I'm not waiting for the 84's to 86's is because we're seeing this action at the high of the day. And if it does break the 86's to 84's, I have a much better entry. So, I'm speculating that it'll validate the trade even more as further confirmation or confluence once these 86's 84's break. Here we go. So, we're testing these 86's again. It's got to be broken. Got to break these guys. Okay, here we go. We're testing them. There's 83's. Aggressive selling's coming in. Offers are reoffering as the market's moving down. You see this offer appearing here. We like to see sellers selling as the market's moving down. It's triggering stops. I love to see that. 80's. Just going for the 74's. I'll sell 90% of it at the 74's. I'll hold 10% for a lower day at the 70's. Stop is now getting back adjusted to break even. Still going for the 74's. Okay, look at this. Let's see it maintain under these 84's. 86's. Let's see if it could fail under it. It's so damn close to the target, man. Guys, so we're failing. 84's. Needs to resist. 81's. I like this pop that's failing here. Let's take out this swing low here that just formed on the 1-minute at 10:18. If this pop that rejected these 84's, now that we're under it, could break under these 79's. I mean, it's it's got to fill the target. If we can break under this most recent swing low here on the 1-minute, this validates that the market is rejecting the pops and sellers are selling as the market's moving up. So, here we go. 79s. Just looking for a 74 target. It's right there, guys. It could do it, man. Here we go. Here we go. 74 and a quarter still has not filled. 74 and a quarter is filled. Out 90% here at the 74s. Out 90% here 74s. 75s. 90% is out. I'm holding 10% for a new low of day. Holding small size for an extra four points onto the low of the day into the 70s. Only 10% super small. All right, so all the zero prints have officially filled. No more zero prints intraday. I'm going to remove all of them. I'll I'll keep it for now so I can explain this straight after. Here we go. We got these lows. That's all I want to see. The lows. You do it. You do it, man. Here we go. 75s again. Come on, runners. Do it for me this time. 73s. Here we go. New low of day. Looking to get all out of this trade on a on a strong break under the low of the day. V-wops also at the 70s, too. So, it is a good target for these runners. Strong snap under the low of the day. My finger's on the sell button here. Fingers on the sell button here. On the buy button. Here we go. New low of day. 70s. 70s. First sign of strength, I'm getting out of this thing. 70s. Here we go. Can I get a few extra points without being greedy? Here's the 69s. Come on. I got out at the 70s. I'm out at the 70s. I'm all out of this trade 70s. All out. >> [applause] >> If If If If the result of that trade took those break-evens that I took earlier, I don't mind it at all. If the cost of admission to the party was those break-evens, I don't mind it at all. This thing might keep running, but the whole plan was the zero prints to fill. And that's pretty it. It's pretty much it. It's pretty straightforward. So, all that I saw here I mean, we could just recap all the setups. Every confirmation was the same. All the confirmations were So, the first trade was basically market rallied up, formed this consolidation range. What I did here was I shorted a strong break under those 86's, targeting the 75 74 zero prints. Every trade was based off of the zero prints at the 74's and 75's, all the trades today. Market sells off, I'm in profit, it misses my target by about a point, point and a half. Rallies up, continues to move up. Same thing over here now, the market goes, it breaks above the high of the day, it breaks above the 93's. The 93's represented the FOMC swing high. Broke above the 93's. As we broke above those 93's there, if I pull up the footprint chart, as we break here 93, broke above the previous intraday high, we could see here the cumulative delta was the most amount of delta there, meaning as the market was breaking above the high of the day, there was a significant amount of selling volume that came in, in fact, the most amount of selling volume. Took a short there, targeting the zero prints. Market dumps, misses my target by literally a tick or two. Rallies up, stops me out at break even. Market same thing now, puts in a lower high. Oh this is dumping. All right, not looking at the runners, I'm not looking at what I could have sold at. I followed my plan, I'm not doing it. That's where it it it'll kill you. Uh market then puts in a higher low here or lower high here. I get short again. Problem was is that the market kept bouncing off those 86's. And if you were listening live, those 86's 84's was just a significant level that we had to break under. Bounced off of it, sold this basically for break even. I mean, it on paper was considered red. Um goes, continues to break out, breaks the high of the day again. As we break above the high of the day, what I really loved here was at the high of the day, oh my god, this thing is selling off. Can't look at it. Um as we broke above the high of the day here, I'm matching up the footprint chart with the candle chart. Uh we broke above the high of the day. We see the volume tail. We see the positive delta. We see the aggressive selling coming in right here. So, right here confirms the weakness. And right here at any price level is a good confirmation. Putting the stop loss above that like the 95s, 96s. Putting it above like this little delta right there. As long as the market remains under those 96s, it's a safe trade that sellers have control at the high. Uh so, what I did was is I waited for any short quick little pop. I was trying to get a fill at the 93s, 94s. That would have been a beautiful entry. Uh unfortunately or fortunately, I got a fill. But, it was at the 90s when the market was popping here. Put my stop above that delta or when the market was popping here. Sorry, I thought I was showing Bookmap. Pop fail, pop fail, pop fail. Pop fail. Put my stop above the 95s. Broke above the 80s Broke below the 86s, this key level that I was mentioning. And as we broke under it, we resisted it perfectly. And then game over from there. Zero prints filled. That's a beautiful trade. Uh unfortunately, it took three attempts before that. Uh look at this thing go. And that's the setup. And again, like I had conviction in this. I had conviction in that I just could not take the market long here. In a structure like this, this to me is not a breakout market. And this to me is not a long a pullback market knowing that we have the zero prints under price here. Now, I know that a lot of you took the market long here. Took it long here. It worked. It was a beautiful setup. And the difference is is that you targeted the high of the day. You weren't targeting a bigger move. For me, I had a lack of confidence in buyers because of the unfilled zero prints under price. Oh my goodness. Look at this thing go. Oh my gosh. Tell you what, this is where the market will eat you up. I should have kept holding. I I should have had a tur- a target out lower. I followed my plan. As much as I could sit here and and be angry that I'm not in runners. I followed my plan and I made a significant amount of profits in a very little amount of time. I can't look at what I could have done if I kept holding. What if the market bounced off my target here? What if this thing bounced off VWAP and is now at high of day? I wouldn't be sitting here saying, "Oh, I should keep you keep holding this thing." Right? You got to have a plan to follow the plan. It's a winning trade cuz I followed that plan regardless of a win or loss. So, good trades. I'm calling it a day an hour in. If you guys have any questions, let me know before I hop off this. Uh but I mean today was just a beautiful session and I hope I could display the the confidence in following your system and the conviction in your analysis. Like, yeah, this thing looks bullish here, 100% and maybe I would have been sitting here like an idiot if this thing rallied 200 points. But I have conviction in my system. Am I right all the time? No. In fact, I'm wrong more than I Yeah, I'm I'm wrong more than I am right. I am. I am right less than I am wrong, but I have conviction and confidence in my system and I hope I could display that to you guys on these live sessions. I may lose and may be wrong a lot of the times, but having confidence and the patience and the conviction in your system is essential to long-term success. It is essential. I had conviction in this. I had confidence in it. Maybe I would have been wrong and this thing could have rallied 200 points. Okay, I'm wrong on it, but you got to have the conviction to follow your own system. Look at this thing go. All right, any questions, let me know before I hop off this, but I'm going to call it a session there. I hope everybody enjoys the rest of their day. Uh if you have any questions, too, you can always DM me. Not a big deal. But Look at this thing go. All right, I'm hopping off charts. Enjoy the rest of your day, all right? Peace out.

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