Options Buying made easy for retail traders | Ft. Dr. Devendra Pratap Singh
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Verdict
Real option-buying backtest. Decoded entry: price crossing its EMA on NIFTY 10-min bars → buy the ATM weekly CE (long) / PE (short), stop 30% / target 60% of premium, square-off by 15:15. Priced on real 1-minute NIFTY option premiums (GFDL, 2015–2026 — every tick of theta, IV crush and gamma is inside these prices), real charges and spread. The video trades BANKNIFTY; NIFTY weeklies are the closest instrument we have real premiums for, so the same rules were run on NIFTY.
17,715 trades on ₹1L: net -1852.2% over 12 years (-154.3%/yr, loses money), win 40%, payoff 1.37 (avg win ₹2,181 / avg loss ₹-1,598), max drawdown -1888%, worst trade ₹-11,518. 2015: ₹-73,730. 2016: ₹-165,541. 2017: ₹-116,052. 2018: ₹-66,570. 2019: ₹-160,019. 2020: ₹-207,183. 2021: ₹-187,701. 2022: ₹-164,159. 2023: ₹-116,993. 2024: ₹-200,365. 2025: ₹-387,225. 2026: ₹-6,625.
Option buying is convex — low win-rates are normal; the question is whether winners outrun the premium bleed. Backtested on 12 years of minute-level premium data (2015–2026; monthly contracts before 2019 — weeklies didn't exist; constant 65-unit lot); entries tested intraday as taught. Flagged for human review.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, on real NIFTY option premiums — 1 lot, ₹1L)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Net P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 652 | 40% | ₹-73,730 |
| 2016 | 1146 | 39% | ₹-165,541 |
| 2017 | 1438 | 42% | ₹-116,052 |
| 2018 | 1290 | 42% | ₹-66,570 |
| 2019 | 1387 | 37% | ₹-160,019 |
| 2020 | 1450 | 39% | ₹-207,183 |
| 2021 | 2165 | 39% | ₹-187,701 |
| 2022 | 1703 | 40% | ₹-164,159 |
| 2023 | 1740 | 38% | ₹-116,993 |
| 2024 | 1516 | 39% | ₹-200,365 |
| 2025 | 2279 | 38% | ₹-387,225 |
| 2026 | 949 | 43% | ₹-6,625 |
Full transcript (6872 words)
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