Only Setup You Need for Swing Trading in 2026 | Ft. Priyank Sharma
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Why 4.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✓ Strong per-trade edge: +0.35R expectancy across 2,335 trades
- ✓ Convex payoff 3.3 — winners far bigger than losers
- ✕ Only 32% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 4 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2022, 2025, 2026) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -40% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: Triple EMA swing trading strategy using 30/50/100 EMAs with price-action breakout confirmation on 1-hour charts; enter when price breaks the first high/low after EMA crossover/re-alignment, targeting Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 2,335 trades, win 32%, payoff 3.27, expectancy +0.35R/trade (avg +1.70%/trade).
This is a real edge. The payoff is convex (winners run well past the average loser). Reasonably consistent (56% of years positive).
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)
Tracking since 2026-08-14 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1% | -13% | +14% | -10% | +12% | +36% | +12% | +0% | -7% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 195 | 13% | -0.64R | -4.43% |
| 2019 | 304 | 30% | +0.05R | -0.15% |
| 2020 | 312 | 47% | +1.04R | +8.13% |
| 2021 | 203 | 32% | +0.16R | +0.86% |
| 2022 | 351 | 25% | -0.06R | -0.66% |
| 2023 | 292 | 50% | +1.87R | +7.69% |
| 2024 | 210 | 28% | +0.43R | +1.96% |
| 2025 | 330 | 30% | -0.02R | -0.30% |
| 2026 | 138 | 20% | -0.25R | -1.19% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 18 | 28% | +2.7% | +45% | +48% | +45% |
| 2 | ████████ | 17 | 18% | +5.3% | +92% | +90% | +35% |
| 3 | ████████ | 15 | 33% | +4.4% | +33% | +66% | +31% |
| 4 | ████████ | 16 | 25% | +0.2% | +46% | +4% | +29% |
| 5 | ████████ | 11 | 36% | +2.3% | +25% | +26% | +25% |
| 6 | ████████ | 15 | 60% | +14.0% | +68% | +210% | +22% |
| 7 | ████████ | 12 | 58% | +8.4% | +37% | +101% | +21% |
| 8 | ONGC free peek | 13 | 46% | +5.1% | +39% | +66% | +19% |
| 9 | ████████ | 8 | 38% | +4.1% | +27% | +33% | +19% |
| 10 | ████████ | 14 | 36% | +2.0% | +30% | +28% | +18% |
| 11 | ████████ | 17 | 35% | +2.0% | +35% | +33% | +13% |
| 12 | ████████ | 5 | 20% | -1.6% | +17% | -8% | +12% |
| 13 | ████████ | 16 | 38% | +3.3% | +42% | +53% | +11% |
| 14 | ████████ | 14 | 36% | +11.8% | +130% | +166% | +9% |
| 15 | ████████ | 11 | 45% | +8.5% | +54% | +94% | +9% |
| 16 | ████████ | 13 | 46% | +5.0% | +25% | +65% | +7% |
| 17 | ████████ | 16 | 44% | +2.1% | +23% | +34% | +7% |
| 18 | ████████ | 23 | 30% | +1.3% | +53% | +29% | +6% |
| 19 | ████████ | 16 | 38% | +1.8% | +19% | +29% | +5% |
| 20 | ████████ | 16 | 31% | -1.2% | +16% | -19% | +5% |
| 21 | ████████ | 25 | 20% | -1.4% | +27% | -35% | -20% |
| 22 | ████████ | 17 | 41% | +3.7% | +40% | +62% | -20% |
| 23 | ████████ | 18 | 22% | +1.2% | +50% | +22% | -17% |
| 24 | ████████ | 13 | 15% | -2.7% | +44% | -36% | -15% |
| 25 | ████████ | 15 | 27% | -1.8% | +15% | -28% | -12% |
| 26 | ████████ | 14 | 29% | +0.3% | +31% | +4% | -12% |
| 27 | ████████ | 16 | 25% | -2.1% | +16% | -34% | -11% |
| 28 | ████████ | 18 | 28% | -0.9% | +21% | -16% | -11% |
| 29 | ████████ | 15 | 33% | +2.3% | +45% | +34% | -11% |
| 30 | ████████ | 8 | 12% | -4.5% | +9% | -36% | -10% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 15 | 40% | +0.90R | +1.75% |
| BANKNIFTY | 19 | 47% | +0.87R | +2.47% |
Full transcript (5584 words)
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