The Only RSI Strategy You Need for Swing Trading | ft. Harneet Singh
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Why 1.5/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✕ Roughly ZERO per-trade edge (-0.05R) — real costs eat whatever is there
- ✕ Payoff 0.38 — the average winner is SMALLER than the average loser
- ✕ 7 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2019, 2021, 2022) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -82% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Detected components (auto-read from transcript)
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: RSI Highway Strategy: multi-timeframe swing trading using RSI 50 crossover/bounce on daily charts as entry/exit trigger, after confirming monthly RSI >60 and weekly RSI >60 as trend filters. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 16,264 trades, win 68%, payoff 0.38, expectancy -0.05R/trade (avg -0.50%/trade).
This is essentially breakeven. The payoff ratio is thin. Regime-dependent — positive in only 11% of years.
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)
Tracking since 2026-07-06 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5% | -30% | -25% | +2% | -19% | +19% | -21% | -33% | -26% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 936 | 69% | -0.06R | -0.74% |
| 2019 | 2108 | 68% | -0.04R | -0.46% |
| 2020 | 1807 | 73% | +0.01R | -0.06% |
| 2021 | 2057 | 71% | -0.01R | -0.25% |
| 2022 | 2121 | 64% | -0.10R | -0.89% |
| 2023 | 1850 | 71% | -0.00R | -0.30% |
| 2024 | 2137 | 68% | -0.04R | -0.37% |
| 2025 | 2285 | 66% | -0.06R | -0.60% |
| 2026 | 963 | 58% | -0.18R | -1.22% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 112 | 66% | +0.1% | +9% | +12% | +30% |
| 2 | ████████ | 113 | 70% | +0.4% | +26% | +46% | +20% |
| 3 | ████████ | 120 | 67% | +0.1% | +13% | +11% | +18% |
| 4 | ████████ | 87 | 66% | -0.3% | +21% | -26% | +9% |
| 5 | ████████ | 102 | 56% | -0.7% | +6% | -76% | +9% |
| 6 | ████████ | 112 | 67% | -0.2% | +13% | -26% | +8% |
| 7 | ████████ | 104 | 49% | -1.3% | +5% | -132% | +7% |
| 8 | ONGC free peek | 102 | 59% | -0.3% | +15% | -31% | +6% |
| 9 | ████████ | 65 | 58% | -0.7% | +12% | -43% | +6% |
| 10 | ████████ | 110 | 66% | +0.0% | +16% | +3% | +5% |
| 11 | ████████ | 86 | 67% | -0.1% | +8% | -8% | +5% |
| 12 | ████████ | 132 | 60% | -0.6% | +8% | -74% | +5% |
| 13 | ████████ | 98 | 55% | -1.4% | +6% | -138% | +5% |
| 14 | ████████ | 103 | 71% | +0.4% | +9% | +40% | +4% |
| 15 | ████████ | 111 | 63% | -0.1% | +12% | -16% | +4% |
| 16 | ████████ | 116 | 73% | +0.1% | +10% | +8% | +3% |
| 17 | ████████ | 95 | 64% | -0.5% | +5% | -43% | +3% |
| 18 | ████████ | 82 | 56% | -1.3% | +8% | -103% | +3% |
| 19 | ████████ | 125 | 64% | -0.3% | +8% | -34% | +2% |
| 20 | ████████ | 99 | 68% | -0.7% | +19% | -69% | +2% |
| 21 | ████████ | 102 | 51% | -0.9% | +11% | -87% | -26% |
| 22 | ████████ | 115 | 47% | -1.1% | +7% | -127% | -24% |
| 23 | ████████ | 129 | 71% | +0.4% | +16% | +50% | -23% |
| 24 | ████████ | 107 | 62% | -0.4% | +14% | -46% | -21% |
| 25 | ████████ | 112 | 61% | -0.4% | +16% | -42% | -21% |
| 26 | ████████ | 100 | 63% | -0.9% | +8% | -89% | -20% |
| 27 | ████████ | 69 | 52% | -1.3% | +4% | -87% | -19% |
| 28 | ████████ | 103 | 54% | -0.7% | +8% | -71% | -19% |
| 29 | ████████ | 86 | 66% | -0.2% | +9% | -13% | -19% |
| 30 | ████████ | 96 | 57% | -1.0% | +7% | -94% | -18% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 132 | 58% | -0.18R | -0.61% |
| BANKNIFTY | 119 | 50% | -0.20R | -0.93% |
Full transcript (9292 words)
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