The ONLY Liquidity Trading Strategy WORTH Learning (3 Steps) — backtested on Indian market data | FakeTrades
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The ONLY Liquidity Trading Strategy WORTH Learning (3 Steps)

Trade with Pat · watch on YouTube ↗
Analysed 01 Aug 2026, 03:12 PM IST
★☆☆☆☆ 1.0 / 5
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Heads up: this strategy was originally created for the US stock market. We applied the exact same logic to Indian stocks & indices and the backtest completed successfully — every result below is on Indian market data.

Why 1.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)

  • Negative expectancy: -0.24R per trade across 28,458 trades
  • Payoff 0.60 — the average winner is SMALLER than the average loser
  • 9 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2019, 2020, 2021) — the edge is regime-dependent

Detected components (auto-read from transcript)

Intraday Opening rangeLiquidity/ICT

Verdict

Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: Liquidity-sweep + ORB (9:30–9:45) + demand-zone retest with bullish engulfing on 5-min intraday; core mechanic is prior-level revisit (sweep then revert) on hourly, confirmed by ORB break+close on 5-m We isolated the one mechanical claim — a day-of-week bias where a prior session's level is expected to be 'revisited'/swept — and traded it short across 159 large/mid-caps with real costs: 28,458 trades, win 49%, expectancy -0.24R/trade (avg -0.24%/trade).

The result is a high win-rate that still loses money after costs — a negative-skew mirage: small targets, larger adverse moves. A directional lean can be statistically real yet still fail to pay once you attach a target, a stop and costs.

Mechanically decoded and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review.

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🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)

Tracking since 2026-07-07 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.

Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)

Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)

YearTradesWin %ExpectancyAvg return / trade
2018171547% -0.21R -0.26%
2019346750% -0.22R -0.21%
2020322748% -0.05R -0.11%
2021338049% -0.30R -0.33%
2022384258% -0.06R -0.10%
2023364241% -0.41R -0.34%
2024352142% -0.37R -0.34%
2025403349% -0.30R -0.26%
2026163156% -0.15R -0.17%

Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)

#StockTradesWin%Avg/tradeBestTotal2026
1 ████████ 18852% -0.1% +6% -16% +6%
2 ████████ 17949% -0.3% +7% -47% +5%
3 ████████ 19253% -0.1% +6% -13% +4%
4 ████████ 5657% -0.3% +2% -15% +4%
5 ████████ 18948% -0.2% +10% -46% +4%
6 ████████ 19242% -0.3% +9% -59% +4%
7 ████████ 15043% -0.5% +4% -76% +4%
8 IDFCFIRSTB free peek 17953% -0.0% +11% -8% +3%
9 ████████ 18252% -0.1% +9% -10% +3%
10 ████████ 17854% -0.1% +3% -9% +2%
11 ████████ 19251% -0.1% +7% -14% +2%
12 ████████ 10551% -0.2% +5% -22% +2%
13 ████████ 18750% -0.2% +3% -39% +2%
14 ████████ 17549% -0.2% +3% -40% +2%
15 ████████ 18849% -0.2% +4% -44% +2%
16 ████████ 17050% -0.3% +3% -46% +2%
17 ████████ 17951% -0.3% +5% -46% +2%
18 ████████ 18350% -0.3% +6% -47% +2%
19 ████████ 16545% -0.3% +2% -49% +2%
20 ████████ 18849% -0.3% +3% -51% +2%
21 ████████ 19050% -0.4% +3% -70% -13%
22 ████████ 18642% -0.3% +10% -60% -9%
23 ████████ 18847% -0.3% +3% -56% -9%
24 ████████ 18653% -0.1% +13% -25% -9%
25 ████████ 18843% -0.3% +8% -48% -8%
26 ████████ 18350% -0.2% +11% -37% -8%
27 ████████ 18048% -0.2% +7% -32% -8%
28 ████████ 18543% -0.4% +3% -73% -7%
29 ████████ 15148% -0.3% +3% -48% -7%
30 ████████ 20644% -0.2% +6% -43% -7%
You can see the numbers — see the names. Unlock every stock in this breakdown and download it as Excel. The worst stock in this table returned -76% under these exact rules — one wrong pick costs many times the unlock.

Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)

IndexTradesWin%Expectancy (R/trade)Avg return/trade
NIFTY24235% -0.55R -0.19%
BANKNIFTY25445% -0.41R -0.18%
Full transcript (1456 words)
Price doesn't move randomly. It gets pulled towards liquidity. And once I understood where that liquidity is, I became a lot more profitable. But most traders still struggle with liquidity because the way it's taught is just way too complicated. So today, I'm breaking down the only liquidity trading strategy worth learning. Three simple steps, and we'll go through live trade examples to show you exactly how this plays out on the charts. Just smash that like button, subscribe to the channel, watch the disclaimer, and let's dive in. Step one is identifying liquidity. But before we can, we have to know where it actually sits in the markets. And the truth is liquidity sits in very, very obvious places because liquidity is simply where traders put their stop- losses. So where do traders put their stop- losses? Well, in this example, we have a very obvious level of support and all the stop losses are going to be below this level. Traders see this level being respected on multiple occasions and expect that level to be respected again. So, they set up their buy trade on that position and then they get knocked out before the trade inevitably goes in their position and hits their takerit. This obvious liquidity sweep knocked them out of the trade. And the same thing goes for sells. There's an obvious level of resistance. Traders put their stops above this level, set up their short positions, get ready for a big win, and then boom, look at that. The liquidity sweep knocks them out for a loss again before the trade went perfectly in their direction. So, by knowing where liquidity is, I avoid stupid losses and get high probability trades. And this happens every day in the markets. We get an obvious level. Liquidity is below that level. It gets swept out of the markets. Then the price reverses all the way up hopefully to take profit. Let me show you some examples. We have the obvious level. We get the liquidity sweep and then the price reversal. The obvious level, the liquidity sweep, and that price reversal. The obvious level, the liquidity sweep, and then the price reversal. The obvious level, the liquidity sweep, then the price reversal. Obvious level, liquidity sweep, price reversal. Obvious level, liquidity below, liquidity sweep, price reversal. Obvious level, liquidity sweep, price reversal. And the last time, baby, the obvious level, the liquidity sweep, and the price reversal all the way up. Now, before we get into step two and I show you exactly how I determine a trade after a sweep, I want to explain why this works. I call this a simple institutional trade ladder. Retail traders like you and I don't have large enough trades to move the market up, but institutions do. So, let's say an institution wants to get into a buy order right here. There simply won't be enough liquidity to get all their orders at this price. So, they have to buy here and they buy here and they buy here because they're pushing the price up with their big orders, creating an institutional trade ladder where they're getting a worse price. but they don't want a worse price. They want all their orders at the original price. So instead, we have our obvious level of support here. And then you have all of the retail stop-losses down here. And the institutions will push the price into those stop- losses, absorb all of these sell transactions, and then they could actually build a large position at the original price they actually wanted. And that's where the real move really begins. So that's how it works. Now, I'm going to show you how I use it. And make sure to smash the like button if this has helped you at all. And leave a comment for your chance to win five free VIP spots. And let's get into step two, sweep or run. Once liquidity is taken, you'll either get a liquidity sweep or a liquidity run. For this strategy, we want to focus on the sweep. We've got the support level right there. We get the sweep and we get the reversal. We want to avoid the [music] run. In this example, obvious level of resistance. Looks like we're getting a sweep here, but instead we get continuation in the form of a run. I find the sweep gives way more consistent trading results, which is why I focus on that in my liquidity trading strategy. So, let me show you how to avoid a run with two examples. So, let's say we're looking at this gold chart. We have our obvious level of resistance. If a run is going to happen, it's going to be because of an impulsive break. So really, we're always waiting for the candle closure. Don't have the short position ready right here because if the candle breaks out impulsively and closes, it's very likely we're going to see a run. Here's another example. We have our obvious level of support and then we play out the chart. What happens? We get the impulsive break and close. That means we're very likely to get the run on liquidity. So, as I play this out, get the run on liquidity. it pushes down. So to avoid the run, just make sure there is no impulsive break. We just want to see a candle come down and wick down here. Just a wick. Okay? Right? We've got our body like that. We want to see the wick and then we're going up. Now is the most important part. Step three, execution. Let's get into some actual trades. For this part of the strategy, I'm on the hourly time frame. That's where I'm looking for the liquidity sweep. Once I get the sweep, I'm looking for the reversal, so I'm only looking for buy trades. Then I come down to the 5-minut time frame. We just had the sweep occur right here. So again, I'm looking to place buy trades. And as you probably know, right now I'm an orb trader, so I'm looking at the first 15 minutes from 9:30 to 9:45, and I'm marking out the candle high and the candle low. This creates my trading range for the trading session. And all I want to see next is a candle break and close outside of the range with displacement, which is exactly what I get right here. This is another indication that I'm looking for buys and that I have positive momentum. [music] After that, I'm looking for my point of interest. And the candle printed a level of demand right here. This is the red candle before the big push up with big green candles giving us [music] displacement. A price push this aggressive tells me that smart money is likely going to be resting at this demand level looking to get in on buy positions. So now I am simply waiting for the price to come back to that level of demand test that level and give me some sort of indication that I can get into a trade which it just did. It gave me a bullish engulfing pattern. The red candle right here is engulfed completely by the green candle right here, which is the next step of momentum telling me I want to place a buy position. So, on that candle closure, I'm going to get into the trade. I'll have my stop loss below this recent level here, and I'll put my takerit all the way up here because we have a strong level of supply that I may get a reaction off of. So, this trade is ready to go. Liquidity was swept. We had the displacement push and candle closure outside of the orb. We respected the level of demand and got our bullish engulfing pattern. So, the only thing left to do is play the position out. And you could see it started to go in my direction with some big candles. There clearly were some buyers at that level of demand. And then I smashed the takerit perfectly. Now, obviously after a liquidity sweep, you can enter a trade on support and resistance, supply and demand. It doesn't always have to be an open range breakout, but if you like that trade, I have a trading robot that does the exact same thing every single day in the markets and a VIP trading room. Check the links in the description to both of those right now. Smash a like button, comment, consider watching this video right here or watch this video right here. And I'll be back next week. Much love.

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