Full transcript (2160 words)
Most traders lose because they fail at finding a bias for the trading day. If they could just use one indicator which would simplify your bias every single day, that would take the headache out of analysis and help you with consistency. The indicator I'm talking about is the initial balance. So, first of all, in simple terms, let me explain what the initial balance is. Basically, it's the first 60 minutes of the Asia session. So when we have the Asia session consolidate like so but the first hour is down here when we break to either the upside or the downside out of that initial balance that first 60 minutes of the Asia session that's what builds our bias for the day. Yes, it's as simple as that. So, I'm going to be showing you some trade examples on gold using this and we're going to be focusing on a 15minute time frame for entry using the initial balance. And then later on in the video, I'll also show you how to put this strategy on steroids using a 4hour confluence. So, here we have gold on the chart on a 15minute time frame. The Asia session is indicated in the pink. If we go up to Scott Taylor market sessions, which you'll have access to in the description below the video, this outlines the Asia session, the London session, and the New York session. We can choose the times to and from based on area volume, the trading sessions that you want to trade, and the trading sessions based on your time zone that you want to trade. You can choose the history availability. I just choose 100 so we can go back and test or you can just have one for the current trading day. That's up to you. And then we have the initial balance based on 60 the first hour of the day. So if I just play Asia session forwards because the majority of us are asleep during the Asia session. What we're going to do now in the settings is add on the initial balance. Now that drops on this dark red area with the high and the low of that initial range. Now there's two things to look at when using this as a daily bias. First of all, the direction of which prices traveled outside of this range. So, first of all, it broke out. It came back to retest the initial balance. If you do trade Asia, there's your entry right there. If you trade London and New York session, you can see that price broke even further. Now, in this case, it was rather large. It was very impulsive. So, we may not get a full retrace all the way back. Instead what might happen is we might see a continuation during London or New York session taking liquidity to the upside. So the second way of looking at it is if it's more a smaller Asia range more corrective not as expanding then we can then expect price to come back and retest take liquidity inside of this range but retesting the initial balance and then continuing in the intended direction. So let's play this forward and see what plays out with this one. Do we make a new height in London? Yes, we do. And now what we can do utilizing inside again the same indicator, we go down to the bottom and we have session separators. What this does is it separates each time zone into 6h hour segments. So we go midnight to 6:00 a.m. for Asia, 6:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m. for London, and then 12:00 p.m. onwards for New York. And what this allows us to do is to mark on the highest and the lowest points of each crossover. This is now going to be set alert for liquidity. And we wait for price to come back. You can see it has not been taken yet. Now it has. We have a 15-minute entry candle. As soon as that bullish candle has closed, we place our trade with a market execution. 15 point stop on this is good. And a fixed 3:1 risk-to-reward ratio. Let's play this forward. And I would expect price to come and continue to the upside like so. And if you held overnight, this would have hit your takerit. So the very next day, we can see we have bullish trend. We are printing higher highs and higher lows. We had the Asia session the next day which has done the exact same thing. Right? This time what London has done, it's continued to the upside without taking liquidity like the previous day. I share these in reals on my Instagram two, three times, sometimes four times every single week. It happens, right? So when London doesn't take liquidity out of the initial balance, we expect New York to come back and take liquidity and often mitigate the initial balance in the process before continuing. So let's see what happens when we play this forwards. There's your London session. Price sweeps London highs. We can see again using our session breaks indicator. It's taken the highs. Now we expect price to come lower and take out the lowest point of the London session. Bear in mind we have the initial balance down here. There's one other thing we can do with the same indicator and we can extend the initial balance. So we can see later on it's very visible. Now let's play this forwards. You can see it's taken liquidity. Ideally, we want a retest of the initial balance. So, we wait for price to come lower. There we go. It's mitigated. We've now got a second retrace candle after it's taken London lows. We place our entry here. Stop loss below Asia lows. And again, a fixed 3:1 risk-to-reward. Let's play this forwards. And placing your stops below the Asia lows give you added protection. Especially with gold, you don't want small tight stop losses, right? Let's see how that plays out while we cover the very next day. So, we're expecting we're still bullish. And by the way, stick around because in about 5 10 minutes, I will go on to the 4hour time frame, which is the second time frame that I use to help basically give this strategy, which already simple enough, some rocket fuel in terms of giving extra confluence for buyers for the day. Notice I'm not looking for sells here. There's a reason. So again, this is more of a corrective and more compact Asia session, but we still we push above, we retest. Those that trade Asia session, there's your entry. Basically, you're trading anywhere inside of this and stops below the initial balance. You'd already be in, you already would have 2 to1, right? But for the rest of us that trade New York or London session, let's see what happens here. Notice that London has not taken any liquidity yet. Then it comes back to retest the initial balance, but we're not quite ready to trade during New York. We want our New York opening time from 2:30 UK time, which is 9:30 Eastern Standard Time. Price takes away. Now, from the 12:00 p.m. cross, the lowest point is this low. So, we're using these 6-hour timestamps inside the initial balance as well to dictate where the session higher lows liquidity is. We can go with a 10point stop. Let's just widen it slightly. Let's go 1213. and a three to one which gives us a TP around about the same as the previous position. Bit further and we'll play that forward. We have two trades now. Let's see what plays out. Big spike there. Big push and we're into the next trading day which goes and hits take profit on these two. Let's give us one more example. Now, of course, this isn't 100%. You are going to take some losses as well, but this is so powerful and the benefit behind this strategy is it's just so simple. So again, initial balance is the first hour of Asia. We have a large impulse here. So we may continue without a mitigation of the initial balance here. Let's see. Very expansive, but no liquidity has been taken. We have the cross from 6:00 a.m. till 12:00 p.m. for our London session, which has not taken any liquidity. Now, what do we have in here? We do have London lows, but we have so much bullish volume here. We may have some fundamentals. You need to understand macroeconomics as well. Just basically have Forex Factory calendar up and follow Donald Trump on Truth Social. That will give you an indication. But look how much bullish intent there is in the market. Now, if we look at this and understand price may not come down to this level. If it comes to this level, this may be close enough for us to take an entry. Let's play this forward whilst waiting for 230 again to tap in. There we go. We've got one candle too many there, but that's absolutely fine. and just give our stop loss enough room just in case it comes down for this level. But the fact that we've got so much momentum in the markets, we want to get involved and not wait for perfection here. Now, let's play this forwards knowing that we could get a stop loss or price could come back to take London lows. At this point, we've broken the highs. We're almost 2 to1. You'd roll your stops to break even anyway. I know I would. And the next day, we hit profit yet again. 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That's going to give you additional confluences without complicating you of your daily bias. So if we go out to the 4our time frame, what we can see here is this area is where we were taking buys. Right now there's a reason why we start taking buys here because if we zoom out, we can see on gold that price came back to a level of liquidity on the 4 hour. More importantly than just taking it out, we reacted. We pushed. We had a market structure shift above the most recent 4-hour high. If that was a sweep of liquidity to push prices lower, then this bearish move would have broke these lows. But it didn't. It failed to create new lows. And then more importantly, it created a second higher high. I've been going over this for the last two years. two breaks higher on the 4hour time frame is a shift in market structure. Right? Then what is your highest probability thing to do is to wait for a sweep of 4hour liquidity. We've had a market structure shift. We want to wait for 4hour liquidity. So when it comes down, it prints a low. It takes away and then it comes down for that liquidity. And as soon as we've had that run on liquidity on the 15 minute time frame inside this area, you're simply waiting for another market structure shift. But on the 15minut time frame, let's go down to the 15-minut time frame in the circled area and have a look when we get this, which we just so happen to have inside the initial balance right there. We have a lower low which sweeps, creates a higher high and a second higher high which gives us the bias for that trading week. We then take four winners, all 3 to one, all of the 15-minute time frame, all highly mechanical and they are all inside our trading windows. Subscribe and save this video so that you can come back to it later on to test the initial balance indicator for yourself. And if you want this indicator for free, you'll find a link below the video where you can copy and paste it straight into your Trading View completely for free.