The ONLY Day Trading Strategy I'll use ALL 2026 (Backtested 1000 Times) — backtested on Indian market data | FakeTrades
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The ONLY Day Trading Strategy I'll use ALL 2026 (Backtested 1000 Times)

Trade with Pat · watch on YouTube ↗
Analysed 01 Aug 2026, 03:16 PM IST
★★★★☆ 4.0 / 5

Why 4.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)

  • Strong per-trade edge: +0.36R expectancy across 13,425 trades
  • Convex payoff 3.3 — winners far bigger than losers
  • Only 32% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
  • 5 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2019, 2022, 2025) — the edge is regime-dependent
  • Max drawdown -32% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way

Detected components (auto-read from transcript)

FuturesSwing Demand/Supply zonesOpening rangeVolume

Claims it makes (quotes pulled from the transcript)

  • “I live trade this strategy every day and I even back tested it 1,000 times to a win rate of 79.45%.”
  • “But in order to get a win rate anywhere close to 79%, this is where step two session analysis is so important.”

Verdict

Auto-backtested. Detected: breakout of a recent high. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 13,425 trades, win 32%, payoff 3.25, expectancy +0.36R/trade (avg +1.84%/trade).

This is a real edge. The payoff is convex (winners run well past the average loser). Regime-dependent — positive in only 44% of years.

Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.

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🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)

Tracking since 2026-07-06 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.

Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)

₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)

Return+49.8%
CAGR+5.2%
Max drawdown-32.2%
Trades361 · 99 won
₹200,000 → ₹299,657  ·  2018-07-10 → 2026-06-08
201820192020202120222023202420252026
+1%+1%+33%+29%-9%+16%+3%-11%-11%

Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.

Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)

YearTradesWin %ExpectancyAvg return / trade
201865716% -0.59R -3.78%
2019131427% -0.02R -0.01%
2020181744% +0.99R +7.31%
2021180135% +0.44R +2.56%
2022166426% -0.07R -0.74%
2023211944% +1.32R +5.57%
2024183527% +0.13R +0.34%
2025150429% -0.02R -0.39%
202671422% -0.36R -1.72%

Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)

#StockTradesWin%Avg/tradeBestTotal2026
1 ████████ 8251% +25.3% +181% +2077% +198%
2 ████████ 9951% +19.0% +124% +1880% +159%
3 ████████ 7633% +3.6% +52% +277% +143%
4 ████████ 7842% +6.4% +85% +500% +137%
5 ████████ 7541% +9.0% +125% +672% +75%
6 ████████ 6936% +3.6% +101% +246% +71%
7 ████████ 9534% +2.6% +68% +246% +64%
8 CUMMINSIND free peek 10643% +6.8% +61% +717% +51%
9 ████████ 9440% +4.1% +66% +383% +40%
10 ████████ 4838% +4.1% +55% +198% +29%
11 ████████ 10234% +4.0% +65% +406% +27%
12 ████████ 9846% +7.5% +59% +738% +23%
13 ████████ 11134% +0.8% +32% +86% +19%
14 ████████ 10337% +3.2% +61% +332% +3%
15 ████████ 8136% -0.6% +15% -46% +1%
16 ████████ 9331% +3.1% +61% +293% +0%
17 ████████ 9239% +2.1% +32% +194% +0%
18 ████████ 8333% +2.0% +46% +170% +0%
19 ████████ 10031% +1.7% +50% +170% +0%
20 ████████ 8034% +0.2% +36% +19% +0%
21 ████████ 7027% +2.1% +60% +150% -46%
22 ████████ 9731% +2.8% +106% +269% -45%
23 ████████ 8921% -1.1% +34% -96% -40%
24 ████████ 8528% -0.0% +32% -3% -40%
25 ████████ 10830% +1.4% +69% +151% -37%
26 ████████ 7023% +0.1% +107% +7% -36%
27 ████████ 9520% -1.6% +33% -149% -35%
28 ████████ 9339% +1.2% +29% +115% -34%
29 ████████ 9033% +2.3% +69% +205% -34%
30 ████████ 10431% +2.2% +81% +232% -34%
You can see the numbers — see the names. Unlock every stock in this breakdown and download it as Excel. The worst stock in this table returned -149% under these exact rules — one wrong pick costs many times the unlock.

Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)

IndexTradesWin%Expectancy (R/trade)Avg return/trade
NIFTY17432% +0.04R -0.09%
BANKNIFTY16032% +0.20R +0.54%
Full transcript (2319 words)
I pray for many things. I prayed for this $5 mansion. I prayed for a family that I love and a day trading strategy that wins trades. All these things are similar in that they require constant attention, but when I put the work in and follow the two steps of the strategy, I'm rewarded. So today, I'm going to teach you the one day trading strategy I'll use for the entire year with live trade examples. Now, I never promise future trading results or $5 million mansions, but if this helps you at all, please smash that like button, subscribe to the channel, and let's dive in. I live trade this strategy every day and I even back tested it 1,000 times to a win rate of 79.45%. My community trades the exact same strategy manually and using my trading robot, and here is some of their results from the past week including some prop firm passes. And this really all comes down to two steps. Step one, displacement orbs, and step two, session analysis, which is how I avoid dumb losses. And every open range breakout trader should already know this. But let's start with step one. I'm trading the New York session only looking at the first 15-minute candle of the New York Stock Exchange open. That candle goes down, it goes up, and then it's done. Then all I'm doing is marking out that candle high, marking out that candle low, and this is the trading range for my trading session. To get the time right, come to the bottom right here. Make sure you're on New York time. Then I'm changing time frames to the five-minute time frame, and I'm looking for an impulsive move out the top or the bottom of the range with some big candles that create some actual displacement in the market. You could see we're getting that push up right here, and I want to see a candle closure. You could see the candle closes right here. If a candle just wicks out and doesn't close, it doesn't count. And if the move doesn't have these big strong candles like this, it doesn't count because it's not going to create the displacement we need. Now, in that aggressive push up, I want to see the creation of a level of demand or even a fair value gap because those are my entry models. I'll show you the fair value gap after. And this makes a displacement orb. So in order to have a valid demand, we've got one, two, three, four green candles in a row. You want to have three or four big green candles in a row. You want to see recent structure get broken. See, this price took out this high. Ideally, have a couple of these fair value gaps, and I draw the demand zone on the red candle here before the big push up just like an order block. At this point, I'm simply waiting for price to come back to that level of demand and give me some sort of a reaction. Right here, we have two wicks. It's respecting demand. That's a good sign. But I really like it when price prints an engulfing candle pattern. So you could see this candle right here is engulfed by this candle right here. It has the bigger body. We're not looking at the wicks. And so when that candle closes with the engulfing, that's where I'm going to enter my trading position. Generally, I'm putting my stop loss below the level of demand, even if it's a big demand. And then I've got to figure out my target. You know, 1.5, 1.6. Try to get a good risk-reward ratio. Now, just a note before I play out the trade. You see that bullish engulfing candle pattern right there. This is rare. It doesn't always happen. A lot of the time, I'm just entering when I see the demand zone holding. So if you're doing some back testing, don't get frustrating if you don't see this get printed every single time. Now, let's play out the trading position. You can see we got a good reaction off of that level of demand. Wicket into it one more time and then price started to push up. As I expand the trade right there, you could see we keep getting green candles and do smash that take profit efficiently. Now, before I get into the second entry model, comment anything below for your chance to win one of five free slots to my VIP room. Last week, I gave out six. Now, let's get into that second example and then I'll teach you how I avoid dumb losses using session analysis along with a live trade. So we're still in step one here, but I'm going to show you the second entry model, and I'm going to introduce you to an indicator. So come click on indicators right here. I want you to type opening range, and you're going to select breakouts with targets. Then come up here to settings. Tick this off. Make sure this is at UTC-5, 9:30 to 9:45, and you'll see it's going to mark out the range for you. So this is our range for the day, and I'm already on the five-minute time frame. And then what do we want? We want that big impulsive move. We want that candle closure. And on this one, we have a level of demand right here, but we also have a fair value gap right here. So we had that nice displacement right there, and now I'm waiting for price to come back to my level. It comes back to the level. It looks like it's respecting that fair value gap, right? So we're just taking a look at that. And then what do we get? The bullish engulfing pattern gets printed right there. So at this point, my level held. We're not coming down to demand. I could get into a long position right here. On a trade like this, I'll have my stop loss around the midline. You could put it below the fair value gap. I'll have it around the midline here. And on this one, I'm going to target around 2%, maybe 2.2%, something like this because the market structure has been very, very strong. So I'm expecting that push up. Let's go ahead and play that trade out. See what happens. Respected the fair value gap. Smashed the take profit. Went even higher than I expected. Very solid. But in order to get a win rate anywhere close to 79%, this is where step two session analysis is so important. Let me teach it to you now. Now, the market moves in very predictable ways depending on the time of day. The Asian session ranges. The London session pushes. And the New York session reverses. And I'm always looking for this exact same pattern every single day to make sure that I'm placing my trades in the right direction. Let's break down why this happens. The Asian session simply doesn't have a lot of volume because there's no real market makers trading within the Asian range. But then we come into the London session and the big players are starting to make moves which creates our London session push down. This is generally a swing in one direction or the other. And then the final session of the day, the New York session where I do most of my trading. This is where I see the best trading opportunities. A ton of volume comes into the markets and that's where we frequently see this reversal. So if the London session is bearish, I'm looking for the New York session to be bullish. Now, this doesn't happen every single day, but it does give us an edge especially as orb traders. Now, before I take us into the chart examples, let me explain why this really happens. It's all about liquidity. You see right here the Asian session is ranging creating liquidity above and below this level. So I expect price to be pulled above and below this level as price attempts to seek out and sweep this liquidity in the markets. Now, in this case, you could see the London session starts, sweeps the Asian session high, and uses the momentum for the London session push. It then sweeps out the low and uses that momentum for the New York reversal. And I'm often using these levels for targets as well. They're very simple targets. So if we sweep the high, I could target this level right here. And then if we come and sweep the low, I could target this level right here and start scaling out of my positions. Now, I'm going to make this even easier. Let's jump to the charts. Now, I'm on the charts. I'm doing this on the 15-minute time frame. Let me show you with real examples. You could see we have our Asian session right here. That's our Asian session range. Then price takes liquidity. We get the London session push. Then we sweep the Asia highs right here, and we get the New York session reversal with a fair value gap right there and an easy trade right here. All right, let's move to the next day, okay? Let's take a look. What does the next day look like? We have our Asian session range. Price comes below in the London session, right? We get that London session push right there sweeping liquidity. Then we get the New York session reversal. It doesn't come to the top of the Asian range because hey, that was a pretty big move. It's not going to make a huge move like that every single day. And I'm not even cherry-picking. Let's just move to the next day. What does it look like? Let's take a look. We've got a bigger Asian session range this time. We had a pretty big move, but we do still get the London session push coming into the New York session. Sweep liquidity below this level, and then we get the New York session reversal. And the New York session reversal does take liquidity out at the top. So at this level right here, we have again another obvious level of entry. And do that with the orb, and we're absolutely cooking, right? But sometimes you don't get the reversal. Let's take a look at this example right here. Asian session range. Liquidity gets taken out at the top in the London session. We get the London session push, and it also sweeps the liquidity out the bottom of that Asian range. And in those cases where London takes out the top and the bottom, I frequently see continuation. So instead of the New York session reversal here, we got a little bit of a pullback, and we had continuation. Now, how do I combine step one and step two? I'll show you in a live orb trade example right now. We're at the end here. Let's go through a live trade. We have the Asian session range right here. We get the London session push. I'm on the 5-minute time frame right now, and then I'm looking for the New York session reversal. So, based on this pattern, I'm looking for buys right now. So, let's zoom in a little bit right here and see what's going on. Well, what do we have? We have the top of the range and the bottom of the range, right? Now, we're looking kind of at that step one, the early part of the lesson. And so, what are we looking for from this range? Well, we're looking for something like that. We're looking for an impulsive move like this one, creating a level of demand, right? The red candle before the big push up, and then I'm waiting for price to come back to that level, right? What am I doing? I'm waiting for price to come back to that level. I've got to get myself into a trade. Now, we didn't really get the bullish engulfing right there, but our level is clearly being respected, and you're almost never going to have every single one of these confluences line up. So, as price breaks out of the demand, that's something I'll use as well to get into a trading position. I'll put my stop loss below the demand right here, and then I'll let my trade play out, targeting the previous level that price just reached. Will we be able to get there? I hope so, and there it is, smashing the take profit right there. We could play this out a little bit further to see how we would have done. We would have done even better. So, let's zoom back out here. Let's put this on the 15-minute time frame. We had the Asian session range. We had the London session push, sweeping the liquidity below the bottom of the range, and then we had the New York session reversal right there as price continued to push up. Now, it didn't come all the way to the top of the range again. That was a big distance, but it's very possible price will still seek out the liquidity above that Asian range as it frequently does. Now, again, you're not always going to get the perfect supply and demand or fair value gap setup. There's tons of ways to enter ORB trades, as I've shown in all my ORB videos on my channel, so make sure to watch those. Consider joining my VIP trading room or picking up a copy of my Trade with Pat Robot that trades this exact strategy automatically. Leave a comment, smash the like button. I'll be back next week. Much love.

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