No Loss Pair Trading Strategy For Nifty & Sensex 📊| With Low Risk & High Reward | No Loss Strategy |
Why 1.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✕ Net -204.4% on capital over the tested window (2015-01-19 → 2026-06-08, 345 trades)
- ✓ Wins 29% with the average win (₹4,315) bigger than the average loss (₹2,567)
- ✕ Worst single trade ₹-13,050 — one bad move erases ~3 average wins
- ✕ Max drawdown -227% along the way — deep for a 'low-risk' pitch
- ✕ Short sample (345 trades over 11 months) with no true market crash in the window — the tail event that hurts option sellers most is untested
Verdict
Real option backtest. Reconstructed on actual NIFTY option premiums (2015-01-19 → 2026-06-08, 345 weekly trades) — legs: buy 1x CE+50 + sell 2x CE+250 + buy 1x CE+350 + buy 1x PE-200 + sell 2x PE-600 + buy 1x PE-800, with real multi-leg costs.
Net -204.4% on ₹1L (-18.0%/yr over 11.4 years) (loses money), win 29%, avg win ₹4,315 / avg loss ₹-2,567 (wins ≥ losses), max drawdown -227% (worst week ₹-13,050). High win-rate is the normal face of short options; the drawdown and the negative skew are the real risk that a short 'backtest' window hides.
Real premiums: minute-level history resampled to daily closes (2015–2026; monthly contracts before 2019 — weeklies didn't exist).
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
Month by month (real NIFTY option premiums · net P/L after costs, on ₹1,00,000)
| Month | Trades | Win % | Net P/L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 20 | 10% | ₹-29,276 |
| 2016 | 16 | 31% | ₹+3,324 |
| 2018 | 12 | 25% | ₹+804 |
| 2019 | 10 | 20% | ₹-4,322 |
| 2020 | 32 | 31% | ₹-41,561 |
| 2021 | 49 | 33% | ₹-18,297 |
| 2022 | 47 | 19% | ₹-75,145 |
| 2023 | 47 | 38% | ₹+7,615 |
| 2024 | 46 | 26% | ₹-42,239 |
| 2025 | 45 | 31% | ₹-17,982 |
| 2026 | 21 | 38% | ₹+12,668 |
Full transcript (4253 words)
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