Nifty Options Masterclass #8 || Reversal Strategy #scalping #nifty #learntrading #strategy — backtested on Indian market data | FakeTrades
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Nifty Options Masterclass #8 || Reversal Strategy #scalping #nifty #learntrading #strategy

Learn With Mishan · watch on YouTube ↗
Analysed 04 Oct 2026, 12:33 AM IST
★★☆☆☆ 2.0 / 5

Why 2.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)

  • ✕ Roughly ZERO per-trade edge (-0.01R) — real costs eat whatever is there
  • ✕ Payoff 0.69 — the average winner is SMALLER than the average loser
  • ✕ 5 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2020, 2022, 2025) — the edge is regime-dependent
  • ✕ Max drawdown -47% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way

Detected components (auto-read from transcript)

Swing RSIFibonacci

Claims it makes (quotes pulled from the transcript)

  • “This strategy easily gives you 70 to 80%accuracy in Nifty.”

Verdict

Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: RSI-based pinpoint reversal strategy using 20-point momentum distance (RSI 40–60 band), Fibonacci retracement (0.5/0.7 levels), and psychological levels to identify exact reversal zones on NIFTY intra Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 10,801 trades, win 59%, payoff 0.69, expectancy -0.01R/trade (avg -0.20%/trade).

This is essentially breakeven. The payoff ratio is thin. Regime-dependent — positive in only 44% of years.

Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.

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Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)

₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)

Return-33.2%
CAGR-5.0%
Max drawdown-47.3%
Trades1007 · 586 won
₹200,000 → ₹133,624  ·  2018-07-09 → 2026-06-08
201820192020202120222023202420252026
-10%+18%-16%-2%-4%+11%-6%-12%-12%

Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.

Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)

YearTradesWin %ExpectancyAvg return / trade
201866855% -0.07R -0.44%
2019135361% +0.02R -0.04%
2020107257% -0.05R -0.18%
2021117767% +0.11R +0.64%
2022158553% -0.10R -0.85%
2023116564% +0.06R +0.05%
2024139560% +0.03R +0.05%
2025161958% -0.01R -0.43%
202676748% -0.10R -0.55%

Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)

#StockTradesWin%Avg/tradeBestTotal2026
1 ████████ 8064% +0.2% +19% +19% +38%
2 ████████ 8165% +1.5% +16% +120% +35%
3 ████████ 8463% +1.0% +15% +82% +33%
4 ████████ 5463% +1.6% +26% +84% +32%
5 ████████ 7951% -0.3% +20% -21% +32%
6 ████████ 6253% -1.1% +17% -70% +29%
7 ████████ 6458% +0.2% +31% +11% +26%
8 METROPOLIS free peek 6467% +0.2% +9% +16% +23%
9 ████████ 5966% +0.7% +10% +44% +20%
10 ████████ 6865% +0.4% +16% +27% +20%
11 ████████ 7453% -0.7% +12% -48% +20%
12 ████████ 5958% +0.4% +15% +24% +18%
13 ████████ 7256% +0.1% +16% +9% +18%
14 ████████ 7070% +0.0% +11% +1% +17%
15 ████████ 6063% -0.1% +9% -4% +17%
16 ████████ 5157% -0.5% +15% -25% +17%
17 ████████ 8973% +0.0% +17% +4% +16%
18 ████████ 6650% -0.9% +13% -60% +15%
19 ████████ 7264% +0.9% +23% +65% +14%
20 ████████ 5969% +0.7% +10% +43% +14%
21 ████████ 8851% -1.0% +8% -91% -48%
22 ████████ 7757% +0.0% +9% +0% -45%
23 ████████ 6655% -1.0% +14% -66% -42%
24 ████████ 8136% -2.0% +8% -162% -40%
25 ████████ 6552% -1.2% +11% -79% -37%
26 ████████ 7057% +0.1% +23% +9% -35%
27 ████████ 8246% -1.4% +9% -117% -32%
28 ████████ 4141% -2.7% +15% -110% -30%
29 ████████ 4747% -1.0% +12% -47% -27%
30 ████████ 8257% -0.2% +9% -16% -24%
You can see the numbers — see the names. Unlock every stock in this breakdown and download it as Excel. The worst stock in this table returned -162% under these exact rules — one wrong pick costs many times the unlock.

Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)

IndexTradesWin%Expectancy (R/trade)Avg return/trade
NIFTY8360% -0.00R -0.22%
BANKNIFTY8452% -0.09R -0.36%
Full transcript (2469 words)
Welcome everyone to a new video. This is video number eight of our Nifty Masterclass, and today's video is on the pinpoint reversal strategy. Where you can pinpoint a reversal, saying that a reversal is about to happen from here. This strategy will be focused on that. This strategy video will be our final strategy video. The next two videos will be about psychology and how to backtest all the strategies we have learned so far. This strategy easily gives you 70 to 80%accuracy in Nifty. However, you will need to practice a lot for this. But, once you learn this strategy, you will be able to pinpoint every day where Nifty is going to take a reversal or give a fall. Okay? So, we will talk about that strategy. Before starting this video, please like the video. Leave a heart emoji in the comments so I know you liked the video, and after that, we will talk about this strategy. I will explain this strategy to you twice. After that, it depends on your backtesting. How much you backtest it, and our next video will be on backtesting. In that, we will revise all the strategies. Plus, we will see how these strategies are backtested. Okay? Let's start talking about our strategy now. You all know that we have kept three things very important in this course. First, psychological levels like 20,800. Right? We have focused a lot on these psychological levels, on which I trade daily, and we even made the entire 30k to 1 lakh series based on this strategy, which you can go and watch in the playlist. Right? You all know that we have focused heavily on psychological levels . The second thing we learned was RSI, which we keep between 40 and 60; for now, you can keep it at 70-30 as well. But specifically for this strategy, I keep it at 40-60. And the third thing we learned for taking confirmation was our Fibonacci. Okay? Now, how to apply Fibonacci and what to do, we will learn all that here. Now let's come to the strategy. See, the RSI, first we will talk about the RSI. RSI will play a very important role in this. First of all, what is RSI? So, RSI is in a way, according to me and what I have learned to date. In my opinion, RSI is a speedometer. Okay? Speed RSI tells you how much and at what speed your index is moving. Right? And since we have speed, we also have a distance that is traveled. Right? Distance is also traveled. So, in my opinion, RSI tells you the speed and distance. Right? Now, if you look at the RSI here, it is starting from 67. Right? You will see it on the right side. If you look on this side, you will be able to see it here. Okay? Look, if I move it over, see, it started at 67 and kept falling, falling, falling, falling, and reached 42. Correct? Did you understand how it came from 67 to 42? So, what is this thing that is traveling from 67 or 70 down to 40? In my opinion. Right? Now, I don't want comments below saying RSI isn't this or that. I am sharing my own method. This is a distance. Okay? Distance and on an average day. Okay? On any average day, the momentum that stays, the momentum that starts is of 20 points. Once this momentum hits 20 points, there is a reversal after that. Now, let me tell you how I define momentum. Look, you don't know, for now , let's remove these levels from here. After that, we will talk about the strategy too. You don't know how far the market is going to go. Right? Now, as the market started moving from this spot here. Right? It started moving up to here. After this, it started showing a fall from here. Now you don't know how long this fall will last. Okay? But you can figure it out, look at how. First of all, a fall has started from here, so you know a fall has begun. So, you need to open your RSI. Right? You need to open your RSI here. Okay? A fall has started from here. So you need to check the distance of the fall. Look , you will see it below on the RSI. So, this is the starting distance of this fall. If I place my arrow here, look, it started from 66. So, what did I say? Momentum continues until it reaches 20 points. Meaning, when 66 starts to fall , it will go to 46. Right? So here, you see, as it keeps falling, when it hits 46, we have to mark that candle. For example, look here, where did it hit 46 ? At this spot. Right? At this exact point, 46 was hit. So, you can also see the candle; the low of this candle hit 46. Right? So, I will mark this level because its momentum has ended at this spot. At this spot, so we will keep it green. At this place, the momentum of this level has finished. So, from here, from this point, a reversal can come in the market at any time now. Right? From this point, a reversal can come in the market at any time, from this point. Right? Because it has traveled. After that, it went a little bit lower. As you see, it went from a maximum of 66 to 43. Three points lower, so you have found a reversal point from where a reversal can come back in the market. The pullback that was supposed to happen has occurred. Now, from here, the market will start moving back in its direction. At this point, you have to use your strategy. Now, this is the first confirmation. This is confirmation number one. What is confirmation number one? RSI () Confirmation number two, which will be our Fibonacci. Right? So you don't have to do anything, where the momentum started, for example, the whole day's momentum started from here, from here to the next swing, what was formed? This one. Right? So we have applied it. Now you have to see, are you getting any level around this point? Well, look , which level do we always look at? 0.5 or 0.7, so let's remove six from here. So you see, this level around here, so let's make it fully black and bold so we know which level this is. So we have to see if we are getting any level around this level that formed on our RSI. So I will mark this. First of all, this is the RSI level. RSI level. Learn very patiently and watch this video repeatedly. This is the RSI level. Now you have to see if there is any level around this on Fibonacci too? In Fibonacci, there are two levels, 0.5 and 0.7, so yes, there is a 0.7 level around here. So we will mark it here. Here is a 0.7 level. Okay? So we will mark this green. Right? Now let's remove Fibonacci. Now we have two levels. One RSI level and one Fibonacci level. Right? We have two levels with us now. So let's write "Fib Level" on it. See how a reversal level is drawn. This is our Fib level. We have got our two levels. Now let's move on to our third thing, which is our psychological level. So is a psychological level forming here? Yes, if you look, a psychological level of 22700 is forming here, which we will mark in blue, and what is forming below? 24650. Of 24650. So can I extract a level here? Yes. We know that if you haven't watched the retracement video, then watch it; there is a retracement coming in between this . So this also became our retracement level. The three things we learned, we applied all three. We know that from this zone, a very good reversal is going to come from this zone. You ask how I find out exactly where the reversal will come, right? Look at this . A reversal zone has been created for you from here. Now you all know where we trade. Right? We trade at the retracement of our psychological level. So you will have this zone on which you have RSI confirmation, Fib confirmation , and also your retracement confirmation. So, your exact entry can be at two places. Either at your Fib level, right here. Okay? Or at this level of yours, which we also took a trade on. A 10-point stop, a 15-point stop loss on Nifty, and a target; in this way, you can capture a very great reversal here. Okay? Let's do it once more right here. For example, I want to see if the market started from here, so it totally started from here. Let's set our old RSI level once. Okay? So remove the Fib level. Remove this too. Remove this too. Remove this psychological level as well. Remove this too, and remove this one as well. So if a momentum started from the RSI level. Now I want to see how far it is going. Right? So how will I look at it? I will open my RSI again. This momentum started from 42. As you can see, the momentum started from here. So, this momentum started from 42. Where will it go? 62. So, I need to see here when 62 is coming. There is 62. Right? On this exact candle. So, this is our 62. Right ? So, there is a very strong chance of a reversal from here. So, this becomes our RSI black level. Okay? We can spot a reversal from here. RSI level. Right? Isn't it? We have found the RSI level. Now we need more confirmations. So, simply apply your Fib just like you normally do. From the day low, because the day low to day high was our last swing, so we will apply it there. Okay? So here, you can also mark the day high level, the simple Fib level you apply for RSI. Right? So this is our Fibonacci level, which we keep green. So we have already got two levels. Now we will look by applying our psychological level. So, which psychological levels are forming here? Although we have already found these two zones. So, let's see where the reversal will come from. So, which two levels are forming here? One is forming at 22,800. Right, and below that, 22,750 is forming. Yes, we have two levels; let's mark them blue and apply retracement between them; this is your retracement and this is your retracement level, and this is your exact zone from where the reversal will come. Okay? Now, the thing here is that you won't get that much accuracy. It fell immediately after touching the 800 level. What can you rely on that? We didn't take this trade either. Right? But you know that as soon as the market breaks from this zone, a reversal will come. And look how great the reversal was here. Right? In this way, you can find a reversal zone. This strategy works only once a day. Guys, when this strategy worked so beautifully here, but at this place, it gave you a small SL, because your main entry will be on its retest, because I have taught the entry criteria, right, cross and retest , always remember that. So here you didn't get an entry because it broke directly and then gave a straight fall. You have been taught the entry criteria : cross, retest, entry, right? So this was our pin-point reversal strategy, from where you can figure out a level where the market might reverse. How do you figure out that pin-point? I also figure it out in this very way. And we have started a whole series on this strategy, the 50k to 1.5 lakh series, the first video of which is already out . And now all its videos will come starting Monday. So, this was our pin-point reversal strategy. Please practice this and see the magic. Just how you will be able to draw levels and find the exact reversal zone. If you master this strategy between 9:45 AM and 10:30 AM, then you will become a good morning trader and you can take your trade and be out within the first half hour. Okay? Otherwise, do practice this. Keep your psychology completely intact. You can apply this same thing to that as well. On price too, it's just that psychological levels won't apply to price. On price, your RSI will simply apply. Let's see this on price once as well. I don't have any issues with time. Like, from here you now need to find a reversal. Right? The market started falling from here. So now you will notice the price on the RSI from here. Isn't it? So here you see, from which price did the market start falling? If we look, it started falling from 54. So where will this go? It will go to 34. So we have to mark the 34 candle. Look here, exactly look here, this candle is around 34, 159, so you have an entry price, you have to enter at 159. Right? But one confirmation is not enough. So we will apply Fibonacci here, simply apply it from the day low, from the low to the high. So no level is forming here. Right? So now what else can you simply do here? If you want more confirmation, although I apply my indicator for confirmation. But you got an exact point. Simply look at the index and make your entry here on cross and retest. And you see, a little bit of variance happens. Here, you were supposed to get an exact pin-point entry. But it touched right from here and zoomed away. But you know when and how much the market will move from where. Now you know that thing. Look here, it simply started from 54 and, sorry, started from 55 and went up to 35, exactly right. And starting from 35, it went up to 55, right. After that , a little bit, look here, it showed some momentum and then it broke through completely to the top, right. So you have to keep that in mind in this strategy, okay. So come on, now practice this strategy. If you liked this video, then definitely let me know in the comments. Like the video so that the new video, which will be the ninth video of this series, can come out soon . I will see you tomorrow.

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