My New York Session Gold Strategy: 80% Win Rate Setup — backtested on Indian market data | FakeTrades
FakeTrades.in
← all strategies

My New York Session Gold Strategy: 80% Win Rate Setup

Samuel Tochi · watch on YouTube ↗
Analysed 01 Aug 2026, 03:10 PM IST
★★★☆☆ 3.0 / 5
🌐
Heads up: this strategy was originally created for commodities, not Indian equities. We applied the exact same logic to Indian stocks & indices and the backtest completed successfully — every result below is on Indian market data.

Why 3.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)

  • A real but modest per-trade edge: +0.22R across 240 trades

Detected components (auto-read from transcript)

Futures Volume

Verdict

Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: Multi-timeframe liquidity-hunt setup: identify 4H trend, locate 1H extension zone (where stops are swept), wait for 5M candle rejection confirmation, then enter with target at next zone and stop below Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 240 trades, win 47%, payoff 1.52, expectancy +0.22R/trade (avg +0.29%/trade).

This is a real edge. Reasonably consistent (88% of years positive).

Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.

See strategies that scored 4★+ →
Know someone trading this?

🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)

Tracking since 2026-07-07 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.

Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)

₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)

Return+18.3%
CAGR+2.4%
Max drawdown-6.4%
Trades233 · 110 won
₹200,000 → ₹236,516  ·  2019-04-18 → 2026-06-08
20192020202120222023202420252026
+1%+5%+4%+2%+3%+1%+1%+1%

Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.

Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)

YearTradesWin %ExpectancyAvg return / trade
20191953% +0.45R +0.51%
20204448% +0.31R +0.66%
20214146% +0.25R +0.35%
20223546% -0.06R +0.11%
20233057% +0.53R +0.40%
20243139% +0.02R -0.01%
20252544% +0.14R +0.02%
20261540% +0.09R +0.08%

Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 117 stocks, incl. 2026)

#StockTradesWin%Avg/tradeBestTotal2026
1 ████████ 425% +0.0% +6% +0% +6%
2 ████████ 450% +1.2% +6% +5% +5%
3 ████████ 1100% +2.6% +3% +3% +3%
4 ████████ 1100% +3.0% +3% +3% +3%
5 ████████ 475% +0.9% +2% +3% +2%
6 ████████ 425% -0.7% +2% -3% +1%
7 ████████ 3100% +4.5% +5% +13% +0%
8 JINDALSTEL free peek 475% +1.9% +5% +8% +0%
9 ████████ 2100% +3.8% +4% +8% +0%
10 ████████ 2100% +3.9% +4% +8% +0%
11 ████████ 2100% +3.7% +4% +7% +0%
12 ████████ 2100% +3.0% +3% +6% +0%
13 ████████ 2100% +2.9% +3% +6% +0%
14 ████████ 1100% +6.2% +6% +6% +0%
15 ████████ 450% +1.2% +7% +5% +0%
16 ████████ 560% +1.0% +3% +5% +0%
17 ████████ 250% +2.3% +6% +5% +0%
18 ████████ 560% +1.0% +3% +5% +0%
19 ████████ 450% +1.1% +7% +5% +0%
20 ████████ 250% +2.7% +8% +5% +0%
21 ████████ 20% -3.0% +-3% -6% -3%
22 ████████ 520% -1.0% +3% -5% -2%
23 ████████ 10% -2.1% +-2% -2% -2%
24 ████████ 425% +0.0% +5% +0% -2%
25 ████████ 250% -0.1% +2% +0% -2%
26 ████████ 250% +0.4% +3% +1% -2%
27 ████████ 250% +2.0% +6% +4% -2%
28 ████████ 540% +0.3% +5% +1% -1%
29 ████████ 30% -2.9% +-3% -9% +0%
30 ████████ 10% -5.6% +-6% -6% +0%
You can see the numbers — see the names. Unlock every stock in this breakdown and download it as Excel. The worst stock in this table returned -9% under these exact rules — one wrong pick costs many times the unlock.

Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Full transcript (1042 words)
I'm going to make this video short, because I've seen a lot of traders out there who trade New York session make this mistake repeatedly every time they try to trade gold. So, in today's video, I'm going to show you the exact framework and strategy I use to trade the New York session. It's the same concept I use in passing prop firms and all. So, do also watch this video from start to end. And if you're new to this channel, do well to hit the subscribe button and turn on post notification to get notified when I'll be dropping my next video. Now, before we get into the strategy, you need to understand what the New York session actually represents. [music] All right, because there's a lot of people out there who don't even know. So, the New York session runs from 1:00 p.m. down to 10:00 p.m. at GMT. And the most important part for us, right, that trades gold, right, during New York session is from 1:30 down to 4:00 p.m. And the reason is because that's when London session and New York session overlaps, right? Market tends to become very volatile. And also, that's when the big volume hits market. I'm going to take this strategy in steps. Number one, I want to know the market bias. More like trend of the market, right? I want to see what gold is doing. I want to see where gold is headed to. So, how do I do this? I go straight to the 4-hour time frame to see the current trend. Is gold trending up or it's trending down? So, that's one thing I want to see on 4-hour time frame. And the next step is to go down to 1-hour time frame to look for an extension zone, because you know, one thing with gold is that gold tends to want to hunt liquidity majorly where most people are putting their stop loss. So, sometimes you might mark out a particular support zone especially a lot of people expecting gold to do double bottom, double top, you understand? They jump in and start buying at the support area because it's created a double bottom or depending on how you call it, maybe a W pattern, and they start buying. But, most of the time, I don't buy at those particular level. I wait for gold to do what? Clear most of their stop loss off that particular point, then I step in. Now, how to identify this zone is that I go down to 1-hour time frame and look for an extension level off that particular point. If this is a 4-hour time frame, most of the time it is off often just few pips below the main 4-hour time frame. Then, once I've gotten that my entry point, which is off the extension zone, the next thing I need to do, that is if I don't want to pick an entry immediately like sniper entry, I just want to get a confirmation, I zoom into 5-minute time frame to look for my entry confirmation. Now, what's the entry confirmation am I looking out for? I want to see a candle reject off that particular zone. Right? So, most of the time gold might just come to that 4-hour and fake a lot of people out. Do as if it wants to leave you. That's where a lot of traders fall victim to. They feel like, "Ah, gold is leaving." You understand? And they jump in on that particular trade, then boom, see a crazy drop. And sometimes, based on emotions, they might now switch their bias and start trying to say, "Oh, it's breaking this 4-hour time frame. Let me trade this immediate breakout." And before you know it, it pushes up again, right? So, that's where I step in. I want to see a weak rejection off that particular extension zone. And once I see that candle closes, it needs to close. Once it closes, that's where I step in, pick my trade, [music] put my target based on the next frequency zone, like the next zone for those that trade my strategy F and R, that's where I'll keep keep my target and put my stop loss below the week of that extension zone, and boom, that's just it. Straightforward. One, the bias of the market. Two, I identify my entry zone, right, which is a recent zone on 4-hour. Three, also try to locate the extension zone where most of the time gold will go to clear a lot of people out, where people stop loss, where most people stop loss would be. Then, four, wait for an entry confirmation, and then, five, set and forget. Once I get that confirmation. So, guys, this is a step-by-step process. So, you don't need to skip number one because I see a lot of people skipping number one, jumping to the other ones. They just want to pick trade. No. I spent almost six months making this mistake, you understand? And I paid dearly for it. Now, I'm giving that information for free. So, the least you could do is what? Hit the subscribe button, share this video to those future traders. If you really want to understand gold better, right, do also go straight to the description box, click the Telegram link there to join my Telegram. I host two live sessions every week, Monday and Wednesday. Monday is majorly for gold breakdown for the week to see what we're expecting for the week. Then, um, Wednesday is for our live trading session. This particular setup I just explained was what we analyzed together live here on YouTube, you understand? All right, that was yesterday, and it played out perfectly. So, it's not something I just came up and just looking at the chart. No. We did it together. We analyzed. We set our entry off that particular point, and it played out perfectly. All right, so if you really want to learn and improve your trading skill, right, especially for gold, then do also subscribe to this channel, share this video, join my Telegram, and I'll see you in the next video.

💬 Trader reviews (traded this? tell others what really happened)

No reviews yet — be the first. Real experiences help other traders more than any backtest.

User opinions, not investment advice. Reviews are moderated before publishing.