MUST WATCH This Renko Trading Strategy | 50 EMA + ATR (LIVE Results) — backtested on Indian market data | FakeTrades
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MUST WATCH This Renko Trading Strategy | 50 EMA + ATR (LIVE Results)

AlgoTrade Pro · watch on YouTube ↗
Analysed 19 Oct 2026, 12:55 PM IST
★★★☆☆ 3.0 / 5
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Heads up: this strategy was originally created for the crypto market. We applied the exact same logic to Indian stocks & indices and the backtest completed successfully — every result below is on Indian market data.

Why 3.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)

  • ✓ A real but modest per-trade edge: +0.13R across 11,888 trades
  • ✓ Convex payoff 5.0 — winners far bigger than losers
  • ✕ Only 22% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
  • ✕ 3 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2025, 2026) — the edge is regime-dependent
  • ✕ Max drawdown -53% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way

Detected components (auto-read from transcript)

Intraday EMASMA/MAATR

Claims it makes (quotes pulled from the transcript)

  • “Since January 2025, the system produced a net profit of 132% with a max draw down of only 10.”
  • “With the exact same rules and the same commission per trade, the system delivered a net profit of 425% over the full period.”

Verdict

Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: Renko chart trend-following strategy using 50-EMA crossover with ATR-based trailing stop-loss for risk management; backtested on Bitcoin. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 11,888 trades, win 22%, payoff 5.01, expectancy +0.13R/trade (avg +0.57%/trade).

This is a marginal edge. The payoff is convex (winners run well past the average loser). Reasonably consistent (67% of years positive).

Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.

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🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)

Tracking since 2026-10-19 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.

Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)

₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)

Return-38.4%
CAGR-5.9%
Max drawdown-53.3%
Trades774 · 129 won
₹200,000 → ₹123,131  ·  2018-07-09 → 2026-06-08
201820192020202120222023202420252026
-18%-24%+14%+22%-10%+9%-14%+4%-19%

Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.

Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)

YearTradesWin %ExpectancyAvg return / trade
201877819% -0.16R -1.35%
2019160520% +0.02R -0.12%
2020128628% +0.48R +3.65%
2021138124% +0.18R +0.94%
2022159521% +0.00R -0.20%
2023143028% +0.59R +2.40%
2024142221% +0.09R +0.31%
2025168419% -0.03R -0.49%
202670717% -0.17R -0.97%

Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)

#StockTradesWin%Avg/tradeBestTotal2026
1 ████████ 6624% +8.0% +173% +531% +51%
2 ████████ 6624% +3.7% +74% +243% +47%
3 ████████ 7219% +0.8% +44% +56% +42%
4 ████████ 7616% +0.7% +92% +54% +37%
5 ████████ 6829% +6.4% +164% +434% +36%
6 ████████ 7225% +2.6% +94% +187% +31%
7 ████████ 8624% +2.1% +68% +177% +31%
8 BHEL free peek 7027% +2.8% +81% +199% +30%
9 ████████ 6023% +8.2% +274% +490% +28%
10 ████████ 2218% -0.8% +24% -19% +27%
11 ████████ 4641% +4.5% +55% +206% +26%
12 ████████ 7923% +0.7% +66% +55% +20%
13 ████████ 4615% +1.2% +51% +54% +16%
14 ████████ 5932% +1.5% +56% +86% +12%
15 ████████ 6620% +0.4% +25% +26% +12%
16 ████████ 6834% +2.5% +43% +170% +11%
17 ████████ 7321% +0.6% +51% +46% +10%
18 ████████ 7420% +1.0% +41% +75% +9%
19 ████████ 6825% +1.7% +62% +117% +8%
20 ████████ 7524% +0.9% +34% +70% +7%
21 ████████ 7420% +0.2% +30% +17% -32%
22 ████████ 7121% +2.0% +48% +141% -26%
23 ████████ 7618% -0.2% +40% -18% -25%
24 ████████ 8119% -0.1% +38% -5% -25%
25 ████████ 8421% +0.5% +44% +44% -25%
26 ████████ 3628% +2.5% +60% +89% -24%
27 ████████ 6517% -0.4% +37% -24% -23%
28 ████████ 9020% -0.2% +50% -16% -23%
29 ████████ 9316% +0.0% +84% +3% -23%
30 ████████ 2425% +2.4% +44% +57% -23%
You can see the numbers — see the names. Unlock every stock in this breakdown and download it as Excel. The worst stock in this table returned -24% under these exact rules — one wrong pick costs many times the unlock.

Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)

IndexTradesWin%Expectancy (R/trade)Avg return/trade
NIFTY8825% +0.21R +0.41%
BANKNIFTY10623% +0.08R +0.13%
Full transcript (1199 words)
Reno shards, one of the cleanest and most attractive ways to look at price action. But here's the real question. Can a simple rank strategy actually deliver above average results? In this video, I will show you exactly that. A system with just two indicators, clear rules, and real back tested performance. And the results might surprise you. I'm ATP, and let's get started. Before [Music] we dive into the strategy, let's first understand what Reno charts actually are. Unlike traditional candlestick charts which are based on time, Reno charts are built only from price movement. That means time is unrelated. New bricks or boxes appear only when the price is moved by a certain amount which we call the box size. On trading view, you can easily open a Reno chart by clicking on the chart type menu and selecting Reno. Instantly, you will notice how different it looks. Instead of candlesticks with wicks and bodies, you will see a series of clean boxes that either step upward or downward. They are never side by side, always one above or below the other. And this makes the overall trend very easy to read. Now, how are these boxes created? We have several methods. The most common is the traditional method where you choose a fixed value for the box size. for example, $10. That means each new brick forms only when the price moves $10 in one direction. But there is also a clever method by using the ATR or average to range. In this case, the box size automatically adapts to volatility in the market. This creates a chart that is smoother, more dynamic, and often more reliable. In this video, we will use the ATR with a length of 14, which is one of the most standard and widely used settings. For example, if the 14 period ATR is $400, each brick represents a $400 move up or down, no matter if it takes minutes or days. And so the big advantage of the Reno chart is that it removes noise, trends are much cleaner and support and resistance levels stand out clearly. The downside is that it can lag in fast markets and it hides the time factor. But overall it's a fantastic tool for trend following. Now that we understand what Reno charts are, let's move on to the strategy. The good news is that this is one of the simplest strategies you will ever see. It only uses two indicators. The first one is the 50 period exponential moving average which acts as our trigger. The rule is simple. When the price crosses and closes above the EMA, we take a long position. When the price closes below this line, we take a short. This keep us aligned with the main trend of the market. The second indicator is the ATR bands which we'll use for the risk management. Here's how it works. For the stop-loss, we'll use the ATR bands with a multiplier of three. That means the bands will automatically adjust to the current volatility. For a long position, the lower band is our stop. For a short position, the upper band is used. And we also use these ATR bands as a trailing stop. So, as the market moves in our favor, the stop-loss automatically follows, locking in profits along the way. Let me give you an example of how this works in practice. At this moment here, a new green brick crossed and closed above the 50 EMA. That's our buy signal. So, we open a long trade right there. At the moment of the entry, the ATR bands are automatically calculated three times the ATR value. The lower band becomes our stop-loss. So, if the trade goes against us, we are protected. Now, here's the interesting part. As the trend continues higher and new Reno breaks are formed, the ATR bands also move upward. And because we are using them as a trailing stop, our stop loss moves up as well. But it only moves in one direction. If the ATR bands climb, we move our stop up. If they fall, we do nothing. The trailing stop never moves back down. This way, we keep locking in profits as the trend continues while never giving back the ground we have already secured. And for short positions, the rules are exactly the same, but in reverse. But of course, we need to test this system with real data to see if it actually works. And to make sure the test is accurate and realistic, I will be using the premium indicators testing bot. It applies the rules automatically, runs every trade, and give us the full stats, win rate, profit, draw down, and equity curve. If you would like to know more about this tool, you can download the free user guide on the homepage of my website. So now let's run the back test. We'll start with Bitcoin on the 15minut Reno chart. Our testing window will cover 2025. Here I insert the risk management rules we talked about and also a 2% risk per trade. And then I just need to activate the trigger function from the baseline option. Select EMA from the list of indicators and then insert the length of 50. Lastly, I will go to the properties section and insert a commission per trade of 0.05. After clicking on okay, here are the results on Bitcoin. Since January 2025, the system produced a net profit of 132% with a max draw down of only 10.84% and the equity curve showed steady growth. As you can see, the results are well above the buy and hold equity. Although the win rate is not very high, we have a profit factor above two, which means that the strategy catches a lot of good trends. But of course you can say that one year of testing is not enough. To make sure these results are not just luck, I will expand the latest sample and start a back test all the way from 2022. And the numbers are even stronger. With the exact same rules and the same commission per trade, the system delivered a net profit of 425% over the full period. The max draw down remained extremely low and once again the equity curve showed a clean steady uptrend and well above the buy and old equity line proving that this is not just random results but a robust system that can outperform the market while keeping risk under control. So here's the bottom line. Reno charts are not just visually clean. They can also be the base for profitable trading strategies. And if you'd like to test other Reno systems, or even strategies on candlesticks, line charts, or any asset, you can do it in seconds with the premium indicators testing bot. Just head over to my website and you will find all the information. And that's it. If you have ideas for the next strategy you'd like me to test, drop them in the comments. Don't forget to like and subscribe and I will see you in the next one. Bye-bye. [Music] [Music]

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