Most Accurate Swing Trading Strategy with Ashish Kyal

hello guys this is hansu from ups. club and who have 20 plus years of experience in the market also a SEI registered AR he also authored a book on trading he is a frequent speaker on business Channel and a me uh and a mentor to Trader in Elliot wave theory also tring with the can check it out on ups. swing trading strategy session we hope you guys will enjoy learning with UPS Ashish sir we are now live and you can session thank you everyone and uh fantastic to have you all here I just want to check if you all are able to hear me out very very clearly and uh thanks to obser for giving this opportunity to be speaking uh to all of you and just uh ensuring uh can you please confirm if everyone is able to hear me out and uh it's an excuse ibly on YouTube uh so do not forget to subscribe to up Channel and it's going to be you can post your queries doubts session it's going to be in Hindi and English mix I hope that is fine and do let me know in case there are any difficulty in understanding so the question that comes up is the question is what are the best strategies that I use personally in order to trade the market so I use lot of things but the most most for swing trading of course because majority of the time the most amount of money that you will be able to make in from the market is not just intraday but actually from swing trading you will be able to make a lot more money from swing trading because swing trading trading if you have looked at the trend in a correct way and entered at the right time you will be able to ride in the trend till the end one of the best trend in the fall then in the rise then again uh from October of 2023 October November 2023 simple of wave the and swing means how many days or as per you so swing swing trading when are trading swing the most important thing you have to understand what is your Target and what is your stop loss tet Market so swing trading means usually it is not going to be Beyond a month usually because swing trading is ideally when when I'm trading options actually I trade options when I'm trading swing trading options usually positions one side Direction stocks around I would say one day to five six days is what swing trading is all about and yeah when you're looking at the swing trading it is very important to look at the concept of vaves so let me share across my chart also very quickly with uh I'll open up trading view screen if that is okay for everyone of you so let me just share across my screen here everyone is able to see my screen okay and if you are able to see the screen just give a big thumbs up yeah I'm just going to remove every single indicator uh on the chart I don't want to use anything as of now and maybe later I'll explain it to you when we have to see that when we are seeing this chart uh the most important thing that you have to look at when you are looking at the simple price action B bhagan said you need to look at the price action uh you need to look at the swings and you need to understand which swings have to be captured and which swing have to be let go simple principles or simple concept if you look at the chart let me just draw it properly okay the overall trend will be on the upside as long as you see higher high and higher low formation to higher high higher low so this high is above the prior high and this low is above the prior low we will say this is higher high and higher low formation which means that the current swing high is about the prior swing High current swing low is about the prior swing low so we will say this formation is higher high higher low which means the trend on in this case is positive until and unless I get a lower high and lower low formation this can be applied not only on The Daily time frame you can apply this concept on hourly time frame you can apply this concept on weekly you can apply on 15 minutes you can apply for any kind of option tradings or stock selection stock trading also so when I see this chart the overall trend from the lows here if you look at it has been constantly higher and higher low formation now for the first time if you see this we can see the swing low is broken which means that this low is below the prior low so this will give us the concept of lower low now this high is still above the this th is yet so you once prices move back below the low of this candle I will say the formation now is lower high and lower low so lower high formation or lower low condition satisfied and then we will be able to say with very high conviction that the trend has reversed uh very clearly on the downside so when will the trend reverse on the downside the trend will reverse on the downside when we have both of these conditions satisfied in a very very simple way so nift level which is 21710 that is the level I'll keep a watch on this is on the daily time frame concept B ni apply I'll go on Bank Nifty index and I'll just remove everything bft overall trend from Bank Nifty we got a very clear talk interes comp that Nifty let me just add Nifty also here this is a very different way of looking at the chart if you look at Nifty and I'm going to put Nifty also on the form of candle yeah I'll be looking at the not line shart candles so when I'm looking at these two charts these are two different sectors these are the two different not sectors I would say Bank Nifty is a subset of nifty but Bank Nifty is also very important index I'm sure you might be trading so important information basis of the simple doubt here Bank Nifty actually made a lower high can you see this the high of Bank Nifty this is a lower high compared to Prior high and guys I want this to be an interactive session b nift lower high higher high there is a classic diverg this is a classic Divergence that you see on Nifty and Bank Nifty which means Nifty made a fresh High Bank Nifty did not make a fresh High which means Bank Nifty is leading and it is suggesting a cautious Trend as of now see Ive been I'm the guy who has been bullish all the way from 18838 18838 momentum come and I can clearly see that there is a strong negative diversion between the two different indices and since there is a negative Divergence between two different indices I am now cautious if bft breaks the low that will be a very strong sign that something is changing on the downside in Bank Nifty so that's going to be a very very important information for me are you with me so I'm going to keep a tab as a Trader I'm going to keep a tab on both Nifty Bank Nifty chart daily time frame to identify the swing lows if that is getting broken first in Bank Nifty I know that there is a sign of concern this same concept I can even apply on 1 hour time frame let me do that for you let me close Nifty here so which methods do I use I use the swing trading methods uh theot very very religious Bank nift 1 hour time frame okay if I look at bank Nifty 1 hour time frame can I say this was the first swing okay suppose from W perspective this is the top of Bank only in this time frame chart that we are seeing and it went all the way on the downside so before breaking about the channel so this was the channel that we have before breaking back Above This Channel this is the low which is form which means something started at the top and completed at this point of time this is my one wave completion so just for everyone's understanding this is point0 and this is point a so I started from point zero I completed something at this point because prices have broken above the upper and of the channel which means it has broken on the upside this is the overall movement after the fall we have a retracement retra we can also check the amount of retracement that means there on the chart so I can go to Fe retracement 50 retra so prices went all the way down and then retraced back approximately 50% of the fall this is what I can make by looking at this chart over price swing maybe 61 that is what I can say but if this break the swing low basis of the simple doubt theory that we just looked at okay and uh if you look at the Dow the can I say the daily time frame also will turn on the downside are you with me everyone of you can I say that the daily time frame will also turn bearish once we see break below the low which means that the downtrend will get very very very uh strong on pushing it on the downst so okay let me just delete everything on the screen as of now okay and let me ask you a simple question from the top which formed here okay from the top which formed at this point of time can I say the movement which is there on the downside from this stop the movement on the downside is very quick fast sharp compared to up impulse pattern I'm not getting into the detail of w I'm just showing you how it looks like so if I'm looking at the overall concept of wave theory I think we completed wave one here wave two complete we completed wave three at this point of time we completed fourth wave here and we completed fifth wave here which means the major Trend so five and then we have started moving in the form of some corrective pattern over here corrective head shoulder as so if this also brege then I know that the trend is also reversing on the downside so my view as of now is to bet as a swing Trader I want to bet on the bigger using options on the smaller Trend I can still trade Bing for example1 sorry 50% but when I'm looking for a trend reversal on the downside that's how you have to look at so let me pick up a stock also so you can apply this concept concept explain daily chart is it making lower high lower low yeah higher high and higher low formation then we will come to the hourly chart on the hourly chart we will see whether the fall has stiffness or the rise is sff I'll show you some stocks to get get you some kind of an idea is it interesting what we are looking at right now how we are looking at things simple it is very very important that you slowly steadily know how to manage risk how to play stop loss all of those things so I'll show you some stock examples I'm picking up random stock if I look at SBR okay and if I look at the daily time frame chart of s let me clear off everything from the chart if I'm looking at SBI can I say this stock is in a very strong uptrend Okay the reason the I'm saying that the stock is in a very strong uptrend because it is showing me impulse I'm sure you might not be bored with it I'll show you wave is divided into two parts impulse pattern impulse pattern five there are certain rules also to be Mark so 1 2 3 4 and five is what the impulse patterns consist of five is uh and corrective pattern will consist of three vs corrective pattern consist of three three or more than three which we label as a and C so we say that this ABC is retracing a portion of the impulse rise that is what we can seeall if I try to count from this perspective I can say this can be possibly W one okay we completed wave two here we completed possibly wave three here and right now we might be in wave four so point this I call a GPS of the market GPS it helps you to understand exactly where we are okay so this is the GPS of the market we can say that we completed one two third and this fall so so this fall can be a we are right now in B which is ongoing so I'm not bullish nor bearish I'm waiting maybe I can write wave C on the downside short and then the bigger Trend up will start again in the form of fifth fourth so we are where we are within this Zone exactly at this point so that's the beauty of wave theory it helps you to understand the maturity of trend it tells you how much can we fall it tells you how far we will go all of those things so suppose if I'm looking at the Fe retracement R so I know 23.6 38.2 Target fibon retracement so I can then look for targeting 697 as my level for SBN so on SBI 697 becomes my level where I can possibly aim for from here on are you with me why because we are right now in a and C leg C leg will be three ways so lower high lower low formation as per Dow the we will get so SBI has already broken the low prior low which means something is starting on this side so this is how we look at a stock something like SBI when we are looking at the downside and and this is not double top formation of course because double top is a different way of looking at things this is not no way a double top formation now let me take up another example so you can look at various such examples uh let me take up another stock and uh let me look at say a simple stock which is like ly or so if I'm looking at LC housing F and you can apply this concept even on five minutes okay so if I look at this stock this is a daily time frame show I'll look at on a 1 hour time frame show I'm picking up different different time frames to explain you the strategy here what is the strategy the strategy is first to identify the direction of the okay can I say the strength on the downside is very strong so that is the direction of the trend are you with me are you seeing the direction of the trend is down why why is the direction down because I have a very clear impulse fall impulse fall one 2 three four and five this is five ws down side five years down and we are right now correcting this five years down in LC Housing Finance so we completed 1 2 3 four and five we completed a b b wave is ongoing so we are right now at this Junction we can much go much deeper also so this is fourth and we might be completing wave a we might have wave B down then we might have again wave C up and post that we will complete say this was bigger wave a we'll complete B and then we might have GPS of the market GPS is because this helps me to understand the overall trend how it can go how fast it can go are you with me are you guys understanding how I looking at this chart how we are seeing this this is LC housing pH you can do it even on 15 minutes second step fibon retracement I going to apply it here and then simply going to apply it this way to see the overall retracement so now after seeing this I can see the retracement which is going on the upside so 602 is my very important hurdle for me for for LC housing because what 38.2% fibon retracement of the Fall L 38.2% fibo level then I can aim for 50% or 61.8% of the entire fall Broad 627 what I can do is I can play a little safer I can sell a call option of 615 I can also sell a put option in case of an LC of 571 once I sell the call and the put option I can forming a strategy which is known as short strangle strategy basis of why why I'm forming a short strangle strategy because now I know as for the GPS of the market this is the possible path that Al GPS option also one more thing post completion I know it's going to complete at that point of time once we see a b and c and b wave completing there I know for sure there is a high likelihood for C to St that's when I'm going to buy naked foot option to ride that swing all the way on the downst am I making sense to you how I'm looking at simplest wave this is pure can we short at wave at for b697 if you are scalper then you will definitely be looking forward to sell at that point of time and uh you will be able to then trade extremely well but shortterm scalping means up all of those things or swing Trader then you might want to wait and expect it to go sideways and form option strategy positionally and then when the C is starting you need to ride it on the downside am I making sense okay and this then there are different types of corrective patterns also just a b or c so there can be different corrective patterns that you can see I'm not getting into details there are that you see uh right from Flat zigzag uh triangle there are different patterns impulse also has certain rules okay and there are definitely Fibonacci relationship between each of the legs so when you look at a B and C each legs have certain relationship that you can look at each leg has some or the other relationship so let me pick up another stock I'm just picking up stocks and showing you examples if I look at dlf let me let me ask you to do it let me ask you check where do you think we should start the count tell me think about it I want it to be an interactive session guys can I say that we will be starting it from the top everyone of you from the level of are you likeing if you're liking it then send acrosss okay so where do you start from the top here okay from the top are you seeing five waves down bces of five impulse down simple okay so now can I say this is one this is wave two thir complete possibly this is fourth and this is the fifth L which means falling on the downside so we have 1 2 third fourth and fifth do you agree with me five down after completing the five down okay we are going to get three waves of pull back right five complete three Wes n Trend will so what I'm going to do is after completing this we'll get a a which will be up B and C so right now can I say that we are right now in leg a can I say we are in b it can also form a triangle it can form flat it can form different patterns simple we feed replacement I go here I select this tool and I get a fibo retracement fibo retracement to 61.8 889 889 wait confirmation now what you have to do is if if you practice Candlestick are you practicing Candlestick do you see any kind of pattern on Candlestick doy bullish engulfing perish engulfing uh type of patterns so if you look at that and if you say get a daily chart around this area around 61 then where you will take position to write the shortterm wave B on the downside which will retrace a portion of this in the form of so post completion we will have B wave which can again come down and we will complete approximately as long as this is forming so we are right now in here is for the GPS for DF stock is it clear everyone of you it's just focusing only and only on prices it's very very uh important that you understand that so say for example I'm just picking up randomly some kind of stocks uh let me just delete the uh drawings that I have done 179 so the entire trend of infosis resulted into a fall into five Wes W one 2 3 4 5 which completed wave a we can another triangle patter we got 1 2 3 4 and five in C something got completed here after that completion we have started seeing the upward and short short overall medm bullish because inos a b and c and a impulse C what I'm saying Fe relationship of B and C depend zigzag pattern relationship flat relationship triangle different so different different pattern different different [Music] relationship clear there can be four complete between three and four I'm not sure what the question is you can also apply this concept on weekly time weekly time frame overall pattern a b and this is C that we have marked on 1 hour time frame so I can simply go to fibo retracement come at this point and measure the entire retracement if I measure the entire retracement I can see that it has retraced 50% of the rice and we are now reversed on the down upside so you can apply this concept on any other stock any time frame weekly time frame daily time frame hourly time frame time frames onily time frame and also check just get opportunity to BU bottom and if follow classical technical analysis also you got a classic rounding bottom uh type of pattern you got also got a handle on the right hand side so cup and handle just a pattern we got a super breakout on the up side also and now we after the the initial rally we are now trying to retrace a portion of it post it completion we can expect a resumption of the up that's how you look at it uh all of these stocks and uh you can look at even metals sectors so if you're looking at the metal stocks and metal charts you can uh similarly see this just a second are you able to see my screen everyone okay and you can apply aot even on 5 minute chart you can apply it on 3 minute chart you can apply this concept on any and every time that's the beauty of app can apply this on any and every let me app on 15 minutes and just me a second steel overall after a very strong impulse rise we just mov in corre and we started moving from the upside on 15 minutes for your reference yeah I think shortterm 15 minut we got a very strong impulse fall five with a truncated F trunc because and we are now Rising on the upside I can very very clearly on the Nifty chart this is 15 minutes time frame SH now 15 minutes so let me just mark it for you we got very clear one wave one we got wave two completed here okay we got third wave complete here 15 minutes we got fourth wave complete here fall or we have fifth wave that got completed purely perspective we got wave one here wave two we got W third year we got fourth year and we got fifth W which completed so what we can very very clearly see here is that move one 2 thir third fourth or fifth so it has retraced only a part of it so this entire fall completed a bigger wave a we are right now moving in the form of wave B okay a and this is B the completion of B will again have a c impulse down soal ni B this is 15 minute chart of nifty and we have retraced approximately 61.8k as okay so 61.8 22 214 so that's where so a b c and so B break9 Market 2 1,947 so 21, 940 classic selling opport 21940 selling opportunity 24 is it clear simple B everyone of you why one and two are so close because both Highs are almost same both High 1 hour 15 minute tring okay and 15 minut is it everyone of you how I'm looking at the simple aspect 219 228 becomes my very very important level Nifty needs to break that 2280 level but it did not reach above that 22,8 and It reversed back on the downside as of now TR strategy 228 2280 and ites 21940 level we will get a classic selling opportunity on the index are you with me so right now as for the GPS if I'm looking at this this was wave a here we have B and this is one mon so we are right now at this pH of the market 24 2,940 level if I'm right I will make a lot of money if I'm wrong I will lose so exactly OPP okay exactly opposite this is I actually practice NE also which is little different in advance you might not get confused okay and you can also use for scalping I would suggest you can use 5 minutes time frame chart 10 minutes and 5 minutes 5 minutes you can also apply some indicators like RSI and those I'm open for questions guys is it interesting so examples rules simple simple steps so can help you out uh if you have any question and uh anything that you would like to understand so questions and it's it's a very interesting course simp and I really glad that uh so many of you are liking it and sharing across Simple Pure price TR [Music] simp if you can predict that market go sideways then you can sell call and put both because usually fourth wave Market side so you can definitely basis of that you can take and options strategies basis of the market scenario basis of a that you might have questions please uh Sanu is saying it's very interesting and full of knowledge uh thanks for that I'm checking those comments that you have uh let me see if there are questions that I have missed out let me pick up those uh just a second okay yes swing trading clear options don't clear be stions it is irrespective that apply overall view strongly bullish options May sorry stocks Cas May trade the Sy okay um and you can it's not necessarily it is only for for uh options uh scalping intraday scalping uh intraday stock selection okay any other questions that you might have or do not forget to like the stream stre like share um sometimes I'm confused with wave so then move on from there to a little bigger time frame maybe hourly time frame that then you will get that Clarity or maybe daily usually triangle options um because of the Gap Gap against waves having internal waves second okay any questions please anything else you would like to [Music] know works as support and resistance what is the probability if it is so Gap definitely works as support and resistance so Gap area X is a support or resistance but you need to know third and third WAP down strong making sense okay I would say this course which is onot wave with upar that's the best way to learn uh that's the quickest way that you can learn about the market great guys then I think we have taken up most of the questions question [Music] then up to over to you I hope or swing Trading platforming with the by we hope you liked our session thank you so much Ashish K sir we'll get back with you with the next slide thank you