Modified Short strangle
Why 2.5/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✓ Net +446.7% on capital over the tested window (2015-01-09 → 2026-06-08, 458 trades)
- ✕ Wins 91% of the time — but the average loss (₹10,041) is 4.8× the average win (₹2,088). Classic short-premium shape: many small wins, rare big hits
- ✕ Worst single trade ₹-57,917 — one bad move erases ~28 average wins
- ✕ Max drawdown -79% along the way — deep for a 'low-risk' pitch
- ✕ Short sample (458 trades over 12 months) with no true market crash in the window — the tail event that hurts option sellers most is untested
Verdict
Real option backtest. Reconstructed on actual NIFTY option premiums (2015-01-09 → 2026-06-08, 458 weekly trades) — legs: sell 1x CE+375 + sell 1x PE-375, with real multi-leg costs.
Net +446.7% on ₹1L (+39.1%/yr over 11.4 years) (positive), win 91%, avg win ₹2,088 / avg loss ₹-10,041 (avg loss BIGGER than avg win), max drawdown -79% (worst week ₹-57,917). High win-rate is the normal face of short options; the drawdown and the negative skew are the real risk that a short 'backtest' window hides.
Real premiums: minute-level history resampled to daily closes (2015–2026; monthly contracts before 2019 — weeklies didn't exist).
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
Month by month (real NIFTY option premiums · net P/L after costs, on ₹1,00,000)
| Month | Trades | Win % | Net P/L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 47 | 91% | ₹+24,860 |
| 2016 | 33 | 94% | ₹+14,415 |
| 2017 | 12 | 92% | ₹+3,947 |
| 2018 | 33 | 91% | ₹+12,421 |
| 2019 | 23 | 100% | ₹+19,977 |
| 2020 | 33 | 94% | ₹+40,000 |
| 2021 | 51 | 88% | ₹+48,306 |
| 2022 | 52 | 88% | ₹+79,168 |
| 2023 | 51 | 90% | ₹+19,550 |
| 2024 | 50 | 84% | ₹-3,925 |
| 2025 | 51 | 92% | ₹+96,197 |
| 2026 | 22 | 95% | ₹+91,809 |
Full transcript (3231 words)
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