BEST Market Structure SMC Trading Strategy (Become Profitable in 2026)
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Why 4.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✓ Strong per-trade edge: +0.36R expectancy across 13,425 trades
- ✓ Convex payoff 3.3 — winners far bigger than losers
- ✕ Only 32% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 5 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2019, 2022, 2025) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -32% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Detected components (auto-read from transcript)
Claims it makes (quotes pulled from the transcript)
- “in this video I'm going to share with you my very own Market structure strategy this strategy is the entire reason that I am profitable and it's also the exact ”
- “5 and a lot of the times we got this golden region right here right which is called the 618 and 786 a lot of times if you want to add more Confluence when price”
- “1 which is a bonus Confluence which is an inducement right if we look again at the reality of Market structure like we did recently you will see that the actual”
- “1 where you get some kind of area of price before your interest area where you have you know equal highs or old high or some sort of liquidity right because wha”
Verdict
Auto-backtested. Detected: breakout of a recent high. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 13,425 trades, win 32%, payoff 3.25, expectancy +0.36R/trade (avg +1.84%/trade).
This is a real edge. The payoff is convex (winners run well past the average loser). Regime-dependent — positive in only 44% of years.
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1% | +1% | +33% | +29% | -9% | +16% | +3% | -11% | -11% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 657 | 16% | -0.59R | -3.78% |
| 2019 | 1314 | 27% | -0.02R | -0.01% |
| 2020 | 1817 | 44% | +0.99R | +7.31% |
| 2021 | 1801 | 35% | +0.44R | +2.56% |
| 2022 | 1664 | 26% | -0.07R | -0.74% |
| 2023 | 2119 | 44% | +1.32R | +5.57% |
| 2024 | 1835 | 27% | +0.13R | +0.34% |
| 2025 | 1504 | 29% | -0.02R | -0.39% |
| 2026 | 714 | 22% | -0.36R | -1.72% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 82 | 51% | +25.3% | +181% | +2077% | +198% |
| 2 | ████████ | 99 | 51% | +19.0% | +124% | +1880% | +159% |
| 3 | ████████ | 76 | 33% | +3.6% | +52% | +277% | +143% |
| 4 | ████████ | 78 | 42% | +6.4% | +85% | +500% | +137% |
| 5 | ████████ | 75 | 41% | +9.0% | +125% | +672% | +75% |
| 6 | ████████ | 69 | 36% | +3.6% | +101% | +246% | +71% |
| 7 | ████████ | 95 | 34% | +2.6% | +68% | +246% | +64% |
| 8 | CUMMINSIND free peek | 106 | 43% | +6.8% | +61% | +717% | +51% |
| 9 | ████████ | 94 | 40% | +4.1% | +66% | +383% | +40% |
| 10 | ████████ | 48 | 38% | +4.1% | +55% | +198% | +29% |
| 11 | ████████ | 102 | 34% | +4.0% | +65% | +406% | +27% |
| 12 | ████████ | 98 | 46% | +7.5% | +59% | +738% | +23% |
| 13 | ████████ | 111 | 34% | +0.8% | +32% | +86% | +19% |
| 14 | ████████ | 103 | 37% | +3.2% | +61% | +332% | +3% |
| 15 | ████████ | 81 | 36% | -0.6% | +15% | -46% | +1% |
| 16 | ████████ | 93 | 31% | +3.1% | +61% | +293% | +0% |
| 17 | ████████ | 92 | 39% | +2.1% | +32% | +194% | +0% |
| 18 | ████████ | 83 | 33% | +2.0% | +46% | +170% | +0% |
| 19 | ████████ | 100 | 31% | +1.7% | +50% | +170% | +0% |
| 20 | ████████ | 80 | 34% | +0.2% | +36% | +19% | +0% |
| 21 | ████████ | 70 | 27% | +2.1% | +60% | +150% | -46% |
| 22 | ████████ | 97 | 31% | +2.8% | +106% | +269% | -45% |
| 23 | ████████ | 89 | 21% | -1.1% | +34% | -96% | -40% |
| 24 | ████████ | 85 | 28% | -0.0% | +32% | -3% | -40% |
| 25 | ████████ | 108 | 30% | +1.4% | +69% | +151% | -37% |
| 26 | ████████ | 70 | 23% | +0.1% | +107% | +7% | -36% |
| 27 | ████████ | 95 | 20% | -1.6% | +33% | -149% | -35% |
| 28 | ████████ | 93 | 39% | +1.2% | +29% | +115% | -34% |
| 29 | ████████ | 90 | 33% | +2.3% | +69% | +205% | -34% |
| 30 | ████████ | 104 | 31% | +2.2% | +81% | +232% | -34% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 175 | 32% | +0.03R | -0.10% |
| BANKNIFTY | 160 | 32% | +0.20R | +0.54% |
Full transcript (12878 words)
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