How I make 30 Lakhs from this SIMPLE Trading Strategy
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Why 1.5/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✕ Negative expectancy: -0.08R per trade across 1,080 trades
- ✕ Payoff 0.82 — the average winner is SMALLER than the average loser
- ✕ Only 41% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 9 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2019, 2020, 2021) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -85% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: RSI overbought/oversold (80/20) mean-reversion strategy with MA crossover confirmation on multiple timeframes; primarily swing and scalp trading on NIFTY/equities. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 1,080 trades, win 41%, payoff 0.82, expectancy -0.08R/trade (avg -0.82%/trade).
This is a losing edge. The payoff ratio is thin. Regime-dependent — positive in only 0% of years.
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)
Tracking since 2026-07-06 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -7% | -8% | -25% | -33% | -12% | -21% | -28% | -20% | -15% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 44 | 34% | -0.14R | -0.97% |
| 2019 | 53 | 43% | -0.08R | -0.87% |
| 2020 | 190 | 42% | -0.09R | -1.03% |
| 2021 | 254 | 39% | -0.06R | -0.86% |
| 2022 | 82 | 38% | -0.11R | -0.78% |
| 2023 | 209 | 45% | -0.07R | -0.72% |
| 2024 | 155 | 43% | -0.06R | -0.62% |
| 2025 | 58 | 43% | -0.09R | -0.84% |
| 2026 | 35 | 37% | -0.10R | -0.70% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 157 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 23 | 39% | -0.7% | +9% | -17% | +8% |
| 2 | ████████ | 6 | 50% | -0.1% | +6% | -1% | +6% |
| 3 | ████████ | 13 | 46% | -1.8% | +2% | -24% | +6% |
| 4 | ████████ | 19 | 32% | -1.6% | +3% | -31% | +3% |
| 5 | ████████ | 6 | 83% | +0.8% | +2% | +5% | +1% |
| 6 | ████████ | 6 | 67% | +1.7% | +9% | +10% | +0% |
| 7 | ████████ | 9 | 56% | +1.1% | +9% | +10% | +0% |
| 8 | BEL free peek | 11 | 64% | +0.8% | +6% | +9% | +0% |
| 9 | ████████ | 6 | 67% | +1.0% | +3% | +6% | +0% |
| 10 | ████████ | 4 | 75% | +1.3% | +5% | +5% | +0% |
| 11 | ████████ | 3 | 33% | +1.2% | +9% | +4% | +0% |
| 12 | ████████ | 12 | 50% | +0.3% | +5% | +4% | +0% |
| 13 | ████████ | 8 | 50% | +0.3% | +3% | +3% | +0% |
| 14 | ████████ | 8 | 50% | +0.4% | +4% | +3% | +0% |
| 15 | ████████ | 9 | 33% | +0.3% | +6% | +3% | +0% |
| 16 | ████████ | 5 | 60% | +0.6% | +3% | +3% | +0% |
| 17 | ████████ | 8 | 38% | +0.2% | +2% | +2% | +0% |
| 18 | ████████ | 8 | 50% | +0.2% | +3% | +1% | +0% |
| 19 | ████████ | 13 | 38% | +0.1% | +4% | +1% | +0% |
| 20 | ████████ | 3 | 67% | +0.5% | +2% | +1% | +0% |
| 21 | ████████ | 9 | 44% | -1.0% | +4% | -9% | -9% |
| 22 | ████████ | 7 | 29% | -2.4% | +5% | -17% | -5% |
| 23 | ████████ | 8 | 38% | -1.5% | +1% | -12% | -5% |
| 24 | ████████ | 6 | 17% | -0.7% | +0% | -4% | -3% |
| 25 | ████████ | 17 | 24% | -2.5% | +7% | -42% | -2% |
| 26 | ████████ | 10 | 30% | -1.8% | +1% | -18% | -2% |
| 27 | ████████ | 7 | 14% | -1.8% | +1% | -12% | -2% |
| 28 | ████████ | 10 | 30% | -1.0% | +0% | -10% | -2% |
| 29 | ████████ | 7 | 14% | -1.4% | +1% | -10% | -2% |
| 30 | ████████ | 6 | 0% | -1.5% | +0% | -9% | -2% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 9 | 44% | -0.18R | -0.66% |
| BANKNIFTY | 9 | 33% | -0.37R | -1.24% |
Full transcript (5999 words)
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