Full transcript (1510 words)
Hello friends, my name is Sahil Romitra . I am a SEBI-registered research analyst and a professional futures trader. I have always believed that Indian brokers, financial service providers, traders, and research analysts have the same control over the market as perhaps Germany has on the automobile industry or Brazil has on football. The point is that our brokers , traders, and service providers in the financial domain are at world-class standards. And we see an example of this in the integration of our broking tools today. In this Sahicoin application, we are learning how to create our own set of custom indicators , where we can backtest the technical analysis concepts we've learned on real-time charts to give our trading a long-term edge. So friends, without wasting any further time, we will go straight to the concept. In the 1970s, Richard Dennis, the creator of the Turtle Trader program, ran an experiment where he believed that if we taught simple rules to untrained individuals and they followed those rules blindly, in the long term, they would capture an edge in the market. And the results of the Turtle Traders are known to all. Where Richard Dennis had non-market professionals trade in the market and generated very interesting returns. Which I would encourage you to check on your own time . Richard Dennis's system was very simple. And that system was designed to catch long-term trending moves in a market. And what was that system? Whenever a security breaches its 50- candle high, Richard Dennis would go long. And if, after going long, the security breached its 20-candle low, Richard Dennis would exit. The point is : long above the 50-period high, and after initiating the long, the 20- period low becomes the SL (Stop Loss). A very simple concept. Where will this concept work? If a security gives a trending move after a 50-candle breakout, then Richard Dennis wanted to capture this move. Whereas, as we know from real-time examples, if a security reverts after breaking the 50-candle high, meaning it gives a ranging move, then in that case, Richard Dennis was willing to take a loss. So, let's study through chart examples what kind of moves we would capture after applying this indicator to Sahicoin's charts when we are in profit, and what kind of whipsaws we have to endure before arriving at profit. Because we know that whenever we apply a trending system to a security, that system will only make money when the security is trending. But in reality, every security goes through phases of trending and non-trending. So, whenever that security enters a non-trending or range-bound phase, it will take money from us. Let's study this rule by Richard Dennis, which he created in the 1970s, to see if it is applicable in the 2020 market. So friends, I have converted Richard Dennis's rules into Pine Script, created an indicator out of them, and applied it in real-time to the charts. Which will look like this on our screen. If some of you are interested in knowing more about this indicator, I encourage you to check the link in the description. Now, let's move towards the charts. As I said, every security goes through trending and non-trending phases. If we have deployed trending systems on that security, then whenever that security is in a non-trending phase, it will give us a loss. And whenever that security is in a trending phase, it will give us a gain. The question is, are our gains greater than our losses or not? So, as we can see, we have applied this indicator to Welspun Corp on a weekly chart, so our viewers who do positional trading, want to capture long-term directional moves, and want to apply this indicator to their preferred fundamental stocks, will benefit the most. An indicator continuously assesses a security. For example, let's focus on this cursor where we are currently. "Buy" is written here. This is the green candle whose high was around ₹ 295, which you will see on the top left of the screen. A buy was initiated on this green candle. When the buy was initiated, the question is, what would be the SL? And as we described in the rule, when the 50-day high is breached, a buy will be initiated, and the 20- candle low will become your SL. So, following the rules, the red line below is giving us our SL, and the green line above indicates that Richard Dennis would have bought here. Logically, he would buy this security at nearly the 300 level, and its 20-period low is around the 200 level. By planning this trade, Richard Dennis would have initiated the trade. After entering at 300, we see that its exit finally happened at the 830 level. Where this exit was triggered. Meaning, Richard Dennis took an entry at 300. Captured a move of almost 850. That is, a 500- point move was captured and the initial SL was approximately 100 points. Meaning, when a security on which we deployed a trending system has trended, our risk-reward came in our favor and in this case, it is 5: 1. After providing an exit, we will see again that this security generated another buy signal when the 50-period high was breached, which we will see in technical indicators. A double top formed here, and when the security decisively breached this double top at these levels (nearly ₹ 990 or ₹ 1000 levels), we see Richard Dennis going long once again near ₹ 1000. His SL, marked by this red line, is around ₹ 700, and as of today, this security is trading at ₹ 2670. That is, after taking a risk of ₹ 300, currently he would have been in a notional gain of around ₹ 1600, but he would not have booked these gains. Richard Dennis would have continued to hold this position, and until when would he hold it and where would his SL be? When this red line marks that SL, which will keep trailing the 20-period low. Does it work only on this security ? The answer is certainly no. It will work on every security. And the proof of this is that this has already been in existence since the 1970s. Let us try applying this system to a couple of other securities. So, here I have put up the Cupid chart, set to a weekly timeframe. And here we will see that Cupid gave us an entry somewhere earlier, the exit for which was traded here. But in recent history, in May 2025, Cupid once again gave us an entry at nearly ₹ 22. Whenever the security's entry was triggered above our buy candle at around ₹ 22, this red line is our exit. And here we will see that the value of this red line is around ₹ 10. Cupid is obviously a high-beta stock and we are trading it on a long timeframe. So logically, SLs will be formed accordingly. So, by taking an SL of ₹ 10, Richard Dennis would obviously initiate this trade. And after initiating, as of today, this same cost which he took with a risk of ₹ 10. Taking it at ₹ 20-₹ 22, today this stock is trading at ₹ 324. And his initial SL has now moved from ₹ 10 to ₹ 10. So here we will see that if we deploy a trending system on a trending security, and that security takes a trend, then the money is yours. And obviously, in some choppy environment or another, you will also lose money. But if we control our risk and control our position sizing, we can control our losses in the market. But as we see, by leaving our positions open, the market itself will give us the gains. So we will control our losses. The market will give us gains, and this is how our system—whether it is Richard Dennis's system or this simple 50-candle breakout buy and 20- candle low exit—can be followed mechanically, or you can continuously develop your trading edge by customizing and refining it through your own research. Friends, I believe that our brokers are reaching next levels. When I started trading, the possibility of creating our own indicators was simply not there. We used to work with the default indicators and default settings that were provided to us. Today, we have the ability to create our own indicators and apply them to our own charts. I encourage you to make use of this platform to its fullest. If you want to know more about this specific indicator , do check the link in the description below. You, too, can develop your own indicators by using these custom indicators. You can fine-tune this given indicator further through your own research. And yes, friends, if you are interested in the information provided in this video, do share it with your trader friends and community, and like and subscribe to this channel. Thank you for your valuable time.