This MACD + Bollinger Bands Rule Changes Everything
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Why 4.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✓ Strong per-trade edge: +0.44R expectancy across 9,273 trades
- ✓ Convex payoff 3.5 — winners far bigger than losers
- ✕ Only 32% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 3 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2022, 2026) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -30% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Detected components (auto-read from transcript)
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: Bollinger Bands breakout with Squeeze Momentum confirmation; price above/below bands, pullback to midline, candle close outside band + green/red momentum histogram. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 9,273 trades, win 32%, payoff 3.52, expectancy +0.44R/trade (avg +2.30%/trade).
This is a real edge. The payoff is convex (winners run well past the average loser). Reasonably consistent (67% of years positive).
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)
Tracking since 2026-07-06 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2% | +7% | +21% | +33% | -13% | +19% | +6% | -5% | +3% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 264 | 9% | -0.79R | -4.85% |
| 2019 | 856 | 27% | +0.05R | +0.51% |
| 2020 | 1352 | 40% | +0.98R | +7.04% |
| 2021 | 1398 | 33% | +0.44R | +2.74% |
| 2022 | 1021 | 24% | -0.01R | -0.40% |
| 2023 | 1569 | 44% | +1.37R | +5.86% |
| 2024 | 1402 | 27% | +0.19R | +0.65% |
| 2025 | 1001 | 28% | +0.02R | -0.25% |
| 2026 | 410 | 21% | -0.35R | -1.56% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 60 | 53% | +31.0% | +181% | +1859% | +146% |
| 2 | ████████ | 43 | 42% | +7.5% | +52% | +324% | +106% |
| 3 | ████████ | 46 | 48% | +7.2% | +72% | +331% | +97% |
| 4 | ████████ | 77 | 52% | +22.4% | +124% | +1725% | +93% |
| 5 | ████████ | 53 | 34% | +8.8% | +125% | +468% | +89% |
| 6 | ████████ | 77 | 39% | +3.1% | +54% | +237% | +84% |
| 7 | ████████ | 66 | 36% | +4.2% | +57% | +278% | +48% |
| 8 | OFSS free peek | 49 | 33% | +3.7% | +101% | +181% | +34% |
| 9 | ████████ | 68 | 35% | +0.7% | +32% | +44% | +23% |
| 10 | ████████ | 65 | 32% | +4.0% | +52% | +260% | +17% |
| 11 | ████████ | 61 | 34% | +3.4% | +59% | +207% | +17% |
| 12 | ████████ | 68 | 34% | +5.2% | +65% | +353% | +9% |
| 13 | ████████ | 73 | 33% | +0.3% | +32% | +19% | +9% |
| 14 | ████████ | 29 | 28% | -1.8% | +35% | -51% | +9% |
| 15 | ████████ | 66 | 42% | +10.8% | +176% | +716% | +4% |
| 16 | ████████ | 82 | 37% | +3.0% | +39% | +243% | +3% |
| 17 | ████████ | 82 | 49% | +11.2% | +95% | +915% | +0% |
| 18 | ████████ | 47 | 49% | +9.1% | +51% | +427% | +0% |
| 19 | ████████ | 69 | 36% | +6.1% | +68% | +419% | +0% |
| 20 | ████████ | 56 | 45% | +3.5% | +38% | +197% | +0% |
| 21 | ████████ | 53 | 15% | -3.5% | +22% | -188% | -44% |
| 22 | ████████ | 16 | 12% | -5.0% | +10% | -80% | -42% |
| 23 | ████████ | 67 | 33% | +4.1% | +69% | +275% | -42% |
| 24 | ████████ | 39 | 21% | +1.5% | +100% | +58% | -37% |
| 25 | ████████ | 75 | 28% | +2.2% | +69% | +168% | -35% |
| 26 | ████████ | 65 | 25% | -0.8% | +41% | -51% | -32% |
| 27 | ████████ | 73 | 23% | +1.0% | +53% | +71% | -32% |
| 28 | ████████ | 65 | 40% | +4.8% | +106% | +310% | -32% |
| 29 | ████████ | 64 | 23% | +1.1% | +60% | +68% | -29% |
| 30 | ████████ | 36 | 42% | +3.8% | +40% | +137% | -29% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 152 | 32% | +0.27R | +0.48% |
| BANKNIFTY | 118 | 29% | +0.12R | +0.19% |
Full transcript (802 words)
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