This MACD + Bollinger Bands Rule Changes Everything — backtested on Indian market data | FakeTrades
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This MACD + Bollinger Bands Rule Changes Everything

TradeGenius · watch on YouTube ↗
Analysed 01 Aug 2026, 03:27 PM IST
★★★★☆ 4.0 / 5
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Heads up: this strategy was originally created for a non-Indian market. We applied the exact same logic to Indian stocks & indices and the backtest completed successfully — every result below is on Indian market data.

Why 4.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)

  • Strong per-trade edge: +0.44R expectancy across 9,273 trades
  • Convex payoff 3.5 — winners far bigger than losers
  • Only 32% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
  • 3 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2022, 2026) — the edge is regime-dependent
  • Max drawdown -30% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way

Detected components (auto-read from transcript)

Swing SMA/MABollinger

Verdict

Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: Bollinger Bands breakout with Squeeze Momentum confirmation; price above/below bands, pullback to midline, candle close outside band + green/red momentum histogram. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 9,273 trades, win 32%, payoff 3.52, expectancy +0.44R/trade (avg +2.30%/trade).

This is a real edge. The payoff is convex (winners run well past the average loser). Reasonably consistent (67% of years positive).

Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.

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🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)

Tracking since 2026-07-06 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.

Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)

₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)

Return+80.8%
CAGR+7.9%
Max drawdown-30.4%
Trades308 · 88 won
₹200,000 → ₹361,595  ·  2018-08-14 → 2026-06-08
201820192020202120222023202420252026
-2%+7%+21%+33%-13%+19%+6%-5%+3%

Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.

Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)

YearTradesWin %ExpectancyAvg return / trade
20182649% -0.79R -4.85%
201985627% +0.05R +0.51%
2020135240% +0.98R +7.04%
2021139833% +0.44R +2.74%
2022102124% -0.01R -0.40%
2023156944% +1.37R +5.86%
2024140227% +0.19R +0.65%
2025100128% +0.02R -0.25%
202641021% -0.35R -1.56%

Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)

#StockTradesWin%Avg/tradeBestTotal2026
1 ████████ 6053% +31.0% +181% +1859% +146%
2 ████████ 4342% +7.5% +52% +324% +106%
3 ████████ 4648% +7.2% +72% +331% +97%
4 ████████ 7752% +22.4% +124% +1725% +93%
5 ████████ 5334% +8.8% +125% +468% +89%
6 ████████ 7739% +3.1% +54% +237% +84%
7 ████████ 6636% +4.2% +57% +278% +48%
8 OFSS free peek 4933% +3.7% +101% +181% +34%
9 ████████ 6835% +0.7% +32% +44% +23%
10 ████████ 6532% +4.0% +52% +260% +17%
11 ████████ 6134% +3.4% +59% +207% +17%
12 ████████ 6834% +5.2% +65% +353% +9%
13 ████████ 7333% +0.3% +32% +19% +9%
14 ████████ 2928% -1.8% +35% -51% +9%
15 ████████ 6642% +10.8% +176% +716% +4%
16 ████████ 8237% +3.0% +39% +243% +3%
17 ████████ 8249% +11.2% +95% +915% +0%
18 ████████ 4749% +9.1% +51% +427% +0%
19 ████████ 6936% +6.1% +68% +419% +0%
20 ████████ 5645% +3.5% +38% +197% +0%
21 ████████ 5315% -3.5% +22% -188% -44%
22 ████████ 1612% -5.0% +10% -80% -42%
23 ████████ 6733% +4.1% +69% +275% -42%
24 ████████ 3921% +1.5% +100% +58% -37%
25 ████████ 7528% +2.2% +69% +168% -35%
26 ████████ 6525% -0.8% +41% -51% -32%
27 ████████ 7323% +1.0% +53% +71% -32%
28 ████████ 6540% +4.8% +106% +310% -32%
29 ████████ 6423% +1.1% +60% +68% -29%
30 ████████ 3642% +3.8% +40% +137% -29%
You can see the numbers — see the names. Unlock every stock in this breakdown and download it as Excel. The worst stock in this table returned -188% under these exact rules — one wrong pick costs many times the unlock.

Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)

IndexTradesWin%Expectancy (R/trade)Avg return/trade
NIFTY15232% +0.27R +0.48%
BANKNIFTY11829% +0.12R +0.19%
Full transcript (802 words)
Your problem isn't really an indicator itself. One of the most popular breakout tools on TradingView causes a lot of traders problems, not because the tool is bad, but because most people use it without a real sense of market structure, momentum, or how to protect their capital. Watch out the gold 15-minute chart. Price pulls back cleanly into the mid band, then break above the upper band with a conviction and kept running. That was a clean two-hour winner. But if you had just followed the plain default Bollinger Bands breakout signals on the same chart, you would have been chopped up multiple times before this a stop even appeared. Today, I'll show you how I turn this popular tool into system that waits for real trend conditions, waits for genuine momentum, and keeps you out of the noise. This isn't about taking more trades. It's about taking better ones. Let's take a run. Wait. In the end, you'll have the full process. Here's why most breakout traders are still lose money. They treat every band expansion as an opportunity. The basic logic sounds simple. Price closes outside the band, you jump in. But in real market, that approach gets destroyed by fake outs, a stop hunts, and low convention chop. >> [music] >> Look at this section here. Bands expands, price breaks out, but there's no follow through. Another break, another reversal. The small losses kept a stacking up. The indicator can't tell the difference between random noise and a move back sustained directional momentum. That's the core problem. These are the setups that quietly frustrate traders. Price might take above the upper band, but the move lacks conviction. No real participation behind it. You enter, it reverses, and stops get hit over time. It bleeds the account. Most traders think their edge comes from finding more setups. In reality, a big part of edge comes from waiting for the right ones. Now, let's look at what a good setup actually looks like. Same gold chart, but this time everything lines up. Price is trading above the Bollinger Bands overall. Clear uptrend control. We get a pullback to the middle band, giving a better entry price where the market already showed support. Then a candle closes above the upper band, and the momentum histogram turns green, confirming persistent buying pressure. That combination, a structure, pullback, band break, and momentum confirmation is what makes a setup worth your capital. You're not guessing, you're selecting. To make this work cleanly, we adjust the Bollinger Bands. Set that to SMA, then set the length to 45. And layer on the Squeeze Momentum Indicator by LazyBear with these settings. BB length 100. >> If I'm going >> [singing] >> with you, I know I'll get through. >> Multiplier two. >> [singing] >> Keltner length 100. Multiplier 2.5. And has a front colors green, white, red, and white. This is it for the tools. And here's exactly how the system operates. For long trades, price trading above the Bollinger Bands, bigger trend is up. Pullback to the mid band. Then candle closes above the upper band. >> [singing] >> And after that, check out the Squeeze Momentum, which should be green. Only then all four conditions line up, we do enter. On the short side, it's the mirror image. Price trading below the bands, downtrend confirmed. Pullback up to the middle line. Candle closes below the lower band. And the squeeze momentum turns red. Again, everything has to align. No forcing entries. Now compare that to this one. Band expands. >> [music and singing] >> Price breaks it. >> [music] >> But the squeeze momentum stays white in a chop range. No real momentum. This is exactly the kind of setup we pass on. Watching it play out without participation is one of the hardest, but most important of skills. Patience here protects your capital more than any single winner. A stop loss goes below the recent swing low or lower band area, whichever respects the structure better. Targets are one and a half or two times your risk. That keeps the math working in your favor over series of trades. You're not looking for home runs. You're letting real momentum do the work. Markets moves on participation, liquidity, and momentum. Most of the time, those things aren't aligned. This system simply waits until they are. You get fewer trades, but the ones you take have a structure and conviction behind them. That's how you turn a frustrating breakout tool into something that actually makes sense in live conditions. This framework works across any market, forex, stocks, indices, crypto, and can be adapted to multiple time frames. Just get your position size so the risk stays consistent with the volatility you're trading. >> Show me.

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