Full transcript (3985 words)
If the market reaches my break-even, I only face a 1%loss, and if it hits my downside break-even, it's 1.5%. Imagine you have a range from 23,350 to 24,790. You get a range of almost 1,450 points in Nifty, where even if it hits your break-evens, you only face a 1%or 1.5% loss. There is no greater loss than that. The market fell straight from 24,400 to 23,900—500 points in one day—and still, there wasn't much difference in your MTM. You were at six here, and you are at three here. That's it. In the last 7 months, there is only one month of loss. That too with a 2% stop loss. As an option seller, how do we make money? By selling option premiums. And when do we get good option premiums? When the India VIX is good, when India VIX is high. Currently , for the last month or so, the India VIX has been at its lowest, between 10 and 12. Because of this, there are no premiums available. And all option sellers, whether positional or intraday , are struggling, and the cash effect is there too. But don't worry, in this video, I will discuss a strategy until the end which is a monthly calendar strategy. Again, you all know that I use zero-adjustment strategies. So friends, despite being a monthly calendar, it is going to be a zero-adjustment strategy. We won't do any chart analysis, any data analysis, nor will we use any indicators. And by the end of the video, I will also show you the backtest report of this strategy to see how it has performed this entire year. Hello everyone, my name is Gunjan Prajapati and welcome to my YouTube channel. Sit with a pen and paper so that you can understand the rules of the strategy. If you don't have them right now, or if you are out somewhere, then pause the video. Watch it when you get home. But if you understand it well, the strategy is extremely simple. You can learn it today, practice tomorrow, and implement it the day after. But you will have to watch the video carefully and watch it until the end. Where we will also do a simulation of how it has performed in the last few months. Okay? So let's go straight to the screen and understand it. So before moving forward in the video, I have a complaint. I was looking at my YouTube analytics. 60%of the people who watch my videos haven't subscribed yet. I have given you guys such great strategies. Option selling, and I always try my best to provide you with the best content. And you guys are watching the videos but not subscribing . What do you lose by doing that? What really goes into clicking the subscribe button? Nothing, right? Just subscribe. It will keep me motivated. For the last 5-6 years, I’ve been thinking about doing YouTube. This is the first time it’s actually happening. I guess this is the fifth video in the last month. Just subscribe, please. Do it now. Did you? Alright. Good. Thank you. Let’s move on. Before discussing the strategy , there’s a small announcement. A lot of people want to meet me. I get many messages and DMs. Emails come in saying , "Sir, we want to meet you." But I have a shortage of time, so I’m unable to meet. So finally, there is a Traders Conclave event happening in Goa . India’s biggest residential conclave, basically a three-day event. From the 2nd to the 4th, a total of three days in October 2026 at the Sheraton Grand Bengaluru Whitefield Hotel, where I am coming as a speaker to show my strategy, along with many other speakers who will show their concepts and strategies. So, if you want to attend this event, the link is in the description box. You can go and register right now. If you click the link I provided, you will get an extra 10%discount as well. Do check it out and register now. So, let's head straight into the strategy; what is it? So, the name of the strategy is the Volcano Calendar. Now, why did I name it "Volcano"? Because, as I’ll show you later, looking at the payoff graph will make it clear. The script we are going to trade is Nifty. The duration will be a maximum of 15 to 20 days. We won’t hold the strategy for more than 15 to 20 days. Expiry is monthly and bi-monthly. Because I said it’s a calendar. Calendar means we will be trading across two expiries. And the entry date is again the last Friday of the month. Whichever is the last Friday of the month, we will choose that day and trade for the next month's expiry. Entry time is 3:30 to 3:35; because of the cost effect, we will deploy between 3:30 and 3:35. But the backtest I perform will be at 3:06 because the market used to close at 3:30 earlier. If you want, you can even deploy by 3:15. But I don't want to spoil the trade during those last few moments. You can deploy it after 3:30. The target will be 2%of the deployed capital, the stop loss will also be 2% of the deployed capital, and the max credit is also 2%. Now, what is max credit? I will show you that when I create the payoff graph. Don't worry, don't stress about where to look for the credit. These are the rules. Now, let's talk about strike selection. If you look closely at the strike selection. So let's say our spot is at 24,000. Okay? Our spot is trading at 24,000. So what do we create first? We will first create a put butterfly. So whatever the spot is, you have to buy one lot of ATM. Let's say, what will you do for 24,000? You will buy one lot of PE. Okay? You shouldn't do the 50 strikes that are at the money. We will use the 100 strike that is one below the 50 strike. Then 400 points OTM from there, look, we did at the money here. 400 points OTM 2x, which means we have to sell. That means we will do what with the 23600 put? What will we do with the PE? We will sell two lots. Okay? Then 400 points further, which is 800 points away from at the money, what do we have to do? Buy one lot. This green means buy and red means sell. So that means 23200 PE, sorry PE. Buy one lot. Now what did this create? It was 24,000. Buy 24,000, sell two lots of 23600, and then again buy 23200; its payoff graph will look like a butterfly , meaning we have created a bearish butterfly; if the market goes down, our bearish butterfly will give us profit. Okay? This is our simple one, and it must be done in the monthly expiry. All of this must be selected only in the monthly expiry. Okay? After that, we have to go to the call side. What to do on the call side? 200 points away from the spot, meaning we have to sell one lot of 24200 call. And the same strike that we sold, we have to buy that same strike; but for next month, same sold strike next month expiry. So what will we do? We will buy one lot of 24200 call, but for the next month's expiry, that is next month. That's it. Now a question might be coming to your mind, sir, there are three legs here, five legs there, meaning five legs for execution and five legs for exiting. If we calculate brokerage at ₹ 20, then 20*5 equals ₹ 100 on the execution side and ₹ 100 on the exit side, so a total of ₹ 200 is gone. Right? So initially, when we are doing option selling, this is a bit of a problem because the brokerage adds up to a lot. The charges become very high. I will give you a simple solution for this, through which you can save at least more than 50%on your brokerage. You can do that through InCred Money Broking. Basically, their brokerage plan is ₹ 9 per order. Whereas how much do all other brokers charge you? ₹ 20 per order. You can execute your orders at this ₹ 9 per order rate. Suppose you are at a very beginner level. And if you are a pro trader and place 100, 200 , or 500 orders a day, your brokerage goes up significantly. In that case, you can choose their monthly plan of ₹ 599 per month, where you pay ₹ 1000 and place unlimited orders. You can place as many as you want. So this is how you can save on your brokerage. For example, if a normal broker is charging you ₹ 200. Against that, if you were trading with this, then 10*9 would be a total of just ₹ 90. Whether you execute or exit this Volcanol Calendar, the strategy remains the same everywhere. But in brokerage, you can save more than 50%. So, if you want to open an InCred Money Broking demat account, you will find my referral link in the description box. You can click there to open an account. And if you punch an F&O order in it, you will find our Google form right below it. If you fill that out after punching an order and opening an account through my referral link, you will get free access to my 20-hour course, a basic course where I have discussed everything from basics to many option selling strategies. You don't have to pay any cost. Meaning you can get 20 hours of access from me for free by opening an account and save on your brokerage. Okay? So for those who feel that the brokerage will be too high and all, I have provided this solution for them as well. Now let's talk about the payoff graph. We have already seen what the rules are here. The payoff graph will look something like this here. Now look, I will tell you the good things about this strategy . First of all, it is covering more than one standard deviation. Right? Now , even after covering one standard deviation, you will see what its R: R is. 1: 1.4. When you try to cover one standard deviation and build a strategy like an Iron Condor, the risk-reward ratio is so poor! You have a tiny profit and such a large loss. Here you are covering one standard deviation and yet, what is your R: R? Max profit is 19,000, max loss is 13,000, so that is very good. Besides that, if I talk about the break-even here, it is from 23,350 to 24,700, meaning a range of about 1,500 points. The blue line. You can see how smooth it is. There is no problem with the blue line. And it has formed a volcano-like shape. So that is why I have named it the Volcano Calendar. Even if I talk about its max loss, that is just 8.3%, meaning you would be completely ruined. I mean, if the market crashes entirely. Upper circuit opens, or lower circuit opens. Still, you are not going to lose more than 8%. Think about it, that 8%will only happen on the expiry day. It will be even less than that. We will look at that too. What could be discussed regarding the worst-case scenario? And whenever I declare any strategy, I always say that you should discuss its worst-case scenario and only place a trade if you are comfortable with that worst-case scenario. Otherwise, selling a straddle means you are just one day away from losing your capital. So, this is our basic payoff graph. Now let's create some trades and see how it turns out. For example, let's see, not much has happened in the month of August yet , just two or three things. So, let's say if we were creating a trade in July , how would it look? So, what did I say ? The last Friday of the month. After the last Friday, what to do? 316, because our class starts from August 3rd. Before that, whatever practice we do, we will do it according to 36. And I will select the 25th of August, which is the monthly expiry. I said to buy at the money, and sell two lots 400 points away from at the money. I sold that and bought a hedge 400 points further away. So, this is simply a bearish put butterfly. You can check the risk-reward; if it goes down, you will make money, and if it goes up, you won't lose much compared to other strategies. All right? This is our put butterfly. Now, we will go 200 points away from the current spot price and do what? We will sell a call. I sold the 24,600 call here. And the same strike that I sold, we need to buy that same strike for next month. Buy 24,600 here. This is the payoff graph we have created. Right, where the max loss is 12.2%; premiums are a bit low, but the payoff graph is still there. It's actually quite good. It’s not bad at all. I will simulate this for you on a 10 lakh base price to show you how it looks. Many people will ask, "Sir, what if a circuit hits?" Look, if an upper circuit hits here. Suppose the market opens at an upper circuit of 5%tomorrow , you will lose 4.3%, just 4.3%. Think about which other trade gives you this much freedom, where even if an upper circuit hits, you only lose 4%. And even if I talk about the downside, where there is a higher probability of a 5%gap down, the downside loss I see is 6.7%, just 6%on a lower circuit and 4%on an upper circuit. This is the maximum loss you can bear. Now, let me tell you an interesting thing; whenever an upper or lower circuit opens, IV will crash in an upper circuit, but what happens if a lower circuit opens? VIX will rise. If I increase the VIX a bit, if I increase India VIX by 20%or 30%, and then if you look at my 5%lower circuit loss, it was hardly 4.2%, at most 4.5%. In most scenarios, you are not going to lose, which means it is scalable, right? That if it is making 2 %a month, and once every two to four or five years, an upper or lower circuit hits. Even if that happens, I will earn 4%. That's fine. This is something that I can afford to lose. Whereas there are strangles, iron condors. You can understand and imagine how much of a disaster it would have been. Now, if I talk about the Greeks, and we look at the strategy in a bit more detail, Theta is positive and Vega is also positive. Both Theta and Vega are positive. Right? Now, if we look here, the Vega is positive and the Theta is also positive. What does that mean? It means that if IV increases, it will favor the trade, and if IV decreases, the trade will work against us. So, we deploy this only in low IV situations. When the IV is in the 10 to 12 range, because what is the expectation? India VIX is unlikely to go below 10. There is a very rare chance. If it does, it will be very little. But the chances of it bouncing from there are very high. So, let me also show you what happens if the IV increases from here. Overall, what is happening? My trade is being favored. Look at the blue line, it's shifting upward. The R: R is improving. Everything is improving. And if I drop the IV, I am facing losses here. My payoff graph is looking bad. So, this is very sensitive to India VIX; I am telling you all the pros and cons. That is why when India VIX is 10 to 12, that is the time you should deploy. If you deploy when it's higher, be careful not to take on too much Vega positivity. Okay? Now that we have created this, let's simulate it to see how it performs. Note that when we start simulating, our spot is at 24388. Okay? Our spot is around 388. Now let's see how it has moved upward. From 388 to 573, how much did it move in just one day? 573, which is almost 200 points, and despite a 200-point movement, I am facing a loss of only 2%. So just look at the MTM as well to see how much my MTM is fluctuating, and if I had deployed an Iron Condor or Iron Fly and a 200-point move occurred, how much loss would I have incurred? Then it came back down the next day to 463, right? See, it came down again by almost 150 points and then went back up . The loss is just 3, and then it goes higher, hitting 628. In about four days , it moved almost 300 points, but there is no problem. Our MTM is currently at 7 in profit. Back to 1%profit, 1.4% profit, 1.5%profit, 1.7%profit, and I guess the next one is again 1.9, right? What is it at the start of the day? Look, at the start of the day, we can easily see 2%profit here. The market came from here all the way to here and then closed. Meaning, there was complete volatility. But still, you can see how good the blue line looks and it's quite smooth up to the break-evens . I mean, how many points was this range? If you look closely, initially when we made the trade, this range was 23,793, meaning from 23,800 up to 24,881. Do you understand? Almost, almost how much...1100 points of Nifty range is available. Where even at your break-evens, it is not showing any major loss. So this is something you can do. Okay? We will quietly exit here . And that's it. Right? Apart from this , if we look at one more month, like we just looked at July. If I go to June, look at June's last Friday, this was it , but there's a holiday. So we will deploy it on the 25th itself. And take the same 316 trade. We took the 316 trade. And 24,000 will be our at-the-money buy. After 24,000, 23,600 will be our sell. And below that, 400 points below, 23,200 is our put butterfly created. An RR of around 1: 7 is formed. Meaning if it goes down, it will favor me. If it goes up, it won't cause me much loss. I sold 200 points away from at-the-money and bought the same thing for the next month at 24,300 . And that's it. This is my payoff graph. The max loss is 8.3%. If the market goes to my break-even, I only have a 1%loss. And if it goes to my downside break-even, it is 1.5%. Think about it, you have a range from 23,350 to 24,790. Almost 1450 points of range in Nifty where even if it goes to your break-evens, you only have a 1%or 1.5% loss. It's not a loss higher than that. Think, if it goes up 1500 points, I only have a 1%loss. If it goes down, I have a 1.45%loss. Whereas my target in the trade is 2%. So the risk-reward ratio is also in your favor. And if there is volatility of 400, 500, or 800 points in the market, you will have no problem. So this is the beauty of this strategy. We will simply take a base of 10 lakhs and see how many days it took to make money for us. The previous one, I guess, made money in 17 days or 15 days. Let's see this time. Again, we will mark the spot around 24050, that 24050 is our spot. When we initiated the trade, the next day it was 935, okay, a 100-point fall, no problem. 872 , more fall, no problem. You can see that your MTM, if I go back to the previous day when it first came, was only a 0.1%loss. Then the day after that, it was only a 1%loss. Then back to a 2%profit, and then once Theta kicks in, it manages very smoothly. Think about it, it came from 24050 to 24400. First, the market came down, and after going down, it is going up. Now just imagine a case where you were trading an Iron Condor or an Iron Fly. How many adjustments would you have made by now and how troubled and frustrated would you have been? But still, in this case, we don't have to do anything. Think about it, the market fell straight from 24400 to 23900, 500 points in one day, yet there wasn't much difference in your MTM. You were at 6 here, you are at 3 here. That's it . Only a 3%loss while the fall is of 500 points. The market came down from here, from here. It came down. It came all the way here and came back here. Now understand it like this, it came down slightly. Okay? Then it went up and then came back down. Now in such a scenario, think about it, if you were holding any other trade, how bad your situation would be and how frustrated you would have been! One, sorry, we have reached up to 8%profit. The market is going up again from here, yet we still don't have to do anything. If you look here, we got around 1.8 to 2%in 14 days. In the next 14 days, our 2%profit is done, that's it! Nothing to do, just sit on it, and make your exit from the trade. What to do? Think, there was so much volatility but we didn't do anything. And we quietly made money. Now let me talk to you about its backtest report. Among all these strategies, this is its backtest report . In the last 7 months, in the last 7 months, there is only 1 month of loss. That too with a 2 percent stop loss. Otherwise, if you look at the rest, the average profit and average loss is almost 1: 1. It is a simple strategy. It is a monthly strategy. And the best part is that, like how India VIX is running low right now. Even in that situation, you can easily trade it, execute it, and comfortably take profits up to 2%. So, a lot of traders were worried about what to trade when the VIX is low. So, I have provided a strategy for that. Go and backtest it now. After backtesting, you should gradually forward test it. And if you haven't subscribed to the channel yet, then subscribe now. Let me know in the comment section how you liked this video. And if you have watched the video, do comment and say so, so that I can know you are my true follower and I will definitely reply to your comment. If you have any doubts related to the strategy, you can ask in the comment section. I will answer them. And also tell me what other topics you want videos on by commenting. And this strategy, you must do this. Send it to all your trading community, friends, and those who are currently learning option selling. And we will meet in the next video with a new strategy, a new concept, and new learning. Till then, keep trading, keep learning, and keep growing.