Liquidity + FVGs = Money — backtested on Indian market data | FakeTrades
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Liquidity + FVGs = Money

Analysed 24 Aug 2026, 02:09 PM IST
★★★★☆ 4.0 / 5

Why 4.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)

  • Strong per-trade edge: +0.36R expectancy across 13,425 trades
  • Convex payoff 3.3 — winners far bigger than losers
  • Only 32% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
  • 5 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2019, 2022, 2025) — the edge is regime-dependent
  • Max drawdown -32% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way

Detected components (auto-read from transcript)

IntradaySwing Liquidity/ICT

Claims it makes (quotes pulled from the transcript)

  • “you have probably been told before something along the lines of if you can't see the liquidity then you are the liquidity well here comes Ario again what do you”

Verdict

Auto-backtested. Detected: breakout of a recent high. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 13,425 trades, win 32%, payoff 3.25, expectancy +0.36R/trade (avg +1.84%/trade).

This is a real edge. The payoff is convex (winners run well past the average loser). Regime-dependent — positive in only 44% of years.

Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.

See strategies that scored 4★+ →
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🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)

Tracking since 2026-08-24 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.

Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)

₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)

Return+49.8%
CAGR+5.2%
Max drawdown-32.2%
Trades361 · 99 won
₹200,000 → ₹299,657  ·  2018-07-10 → 2026-06-08
201820192020202120222023202420252026
+1%+1%+33%+29%-9%+16%+3%-11%-11%

Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.

Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)

YearTradesWin %ExpectancyAvg return / trade
201865716% -0.59R -3.78%
2019131427% -0.02R -0.01%
2020181744% +0.99R +7.31%
2021180135% +0.44R +2.56%
2022166426% -0.07R -0.74%
2023211944% +1.32R +5.57%
2024183527% +0.13R +0.34%
2025150429% -0.02R -0.39%
202671422% -0.36R -1.72%

Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)

#StockTradesWin%Avg/tradeBestTotal2026
1 ████████ 8251% +25.3% +181% +2077% +198%
2 ████████ 9951% +19.0% +124% +1880% +159%
3 ████████ 7633% +3.6% +52% +277% +143%
4 ████████ 7842% +6.4% +85% +500% +137%
5 ████████ 7541% +9.0% +125% +672% +75%
6 ████████ 6936% +3.6% +101% +246% +71%
7 ████████ 9534% +2.6% +68% +246% +64%
8 CUMMINSIND free peek 10643% +6.8% +61% +717% +51%
9 ████████ 9440% +4.1% +66% +383% +40%
10 ████████ 4838% +4.1% +55% +198% +29%
11 ████████ 10234% +4.0% +65% +406% +27%
12 ████████ 9846% +7.5% +59% +738% +23%
13 ████████ 11134% +0.8% +32% +86% +19%
14 ████████ 10337% +3.2% +61% +332% +3%
15 ████████ 8136% -0.6% +15% -46% +1%
16 ████████ 9331% +3.1% +61% +293% +0%
17 ████████ 9239% +2.1% +32% +194% +0%
18 ████████ 8333% +2.0% +46% +170% +0%
19 ████████ 10031% +1.7% +50% +170% +0%
20 ████████ 8034% +0.2% +36% +19% +0%
21 ████████ 7027% +2.1% +60% +150% -46%
22 ████████ 9731% +2.8% +106% +269% -45%
23 ████████ 8921% -1.1% +34% -96% -40%
24 ████████ 8528% -0.0% +32% -3% -40%
25 ████████ 10830% +1.4% +69% +151% -37%
26 ████████ 7023% +0.1% +107% +7% -36%
27 ████████ 9520% -1.6% +33% -149% -35%
28 ████████ 9339% +1.2% +29% +115% -34%
29 ████████ 9033% +2.3% +69% +205% -34%
30 ████████ 10431% +2.2% +81% +232% -34%
You can see the numbers — see the names. Unlock every stock in this breakdown and download it as Excel. The worst stock in this table returned -149% under these exact rules — one wrong pick costs many times the unlock.

Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)

IndexTradesWin%Expectancy (R/trade)Avg return/trade
NIFTY17532% +0.03R -0.10%
BANKNIFTY16032% +0.21R +0.54%
Full transcript (3188 words)
you have probably been told before something along the lines of if you can't see the liquidity then you are the liquidity well here comes Ario again what do you mean with that liquidity Define it if you can understand liquidity in combination with the fair value gaps you understand the whole market and making money becomes quite simple once you understand the market just ah heads up we have a holidays deal for the money-making team that is announced at the end of this video we need to understand that the theory we use is based around liquidity and rebalancing so the market is either doing one of two things it's either seeking liquidity or it's rebalancing something in other words it's seeking fair value or it's seeking liquidity again that is based on the theory that we use that theory is just there to make me comfortable do I know 100% that that theory is true no because who am I to tell you that nobody knows but it makes me money so I want to use it then if we Define that liquidity liquidity is again defined by having buy orders and sell orders in the market those are the only two orders then for someone to be a buyer so someone that wants to actually buy price there needs to be an opposite seller of course when you want to buy a car someone needs to sell you that car right you can't just buy it out of thin air and it's the same for when you want to sell something someone else needs to buy it from you so understanding that and understanding that there are huge players in this game with huge players I don't mean the gurus you are seeing on Instagram Twitter Youtube whatever it is because the true Wills are the financial institutions they are trading with an unfathomable amount of money and they are not taking out your average Joe that is in his basement trying to trade the next 90minut cycle oh what would happen if he figures out the algorithm with his two lots no that's not relevant we are talking about financial institutions about the actual big boys so let's see how that actually goes to work well if we look at Price action right here and we see this low right there that low got taken out right there got swept and then we moved higher aggressively what is the story behind that how can we dissect this well first of all we need to understand there were likely stop losses below that low so someone was buying here were just helding it to the moon right there and when I say someone again I refer to financial institutions they had their stop- loss somewhere below those recent swing lows understanding that is that right there this low was a Target why was that exact low a Target that will make a lot of sense if you keep on watching the video then that stop loss that they had is a sell order because of course they are selling at a loss so a buy stop loss is a sell stop meaning that if price comes below the stop- loss number right there and stings below it they are selling at a loss but what did I just tell you about the car analogy if they are selling who are they selling to they are selling to someone that doesn't want to see them win or they just don't simply understand what I'm about to say but I doubt that financial institutions are watching my videos they are selling to someone that is above them that sell stop is getting bought up by an even bigger will an even bigger financial institution So Below this low there are sell stops sell stops in the form of stop- losses but not only that because there are also breakout Trad ERS in the market breakout traders that have a sell stop in the form of an actual sell order and not a stop- loss of a buy order that want to sell below that low why is that because they're selling on weakness and this is where it gets very important to understand because these people are selling on weakness so again they will have their stop- loss somewhere above recent swing highs can be even the highest swing high that is sitting right there in their mind since price is coming below below that low it should be weak right so we should continue lower so we want to place a sell stop right there and we want to capitalize on the potential move even lower so this sell stop again needs to have a buyer that sell stop is getting bought up again now the important part here is is that this sell stop right there the person that is trying to sell that is what is now trapped it's experiencing draw down this person wants to get out of this position if you're in that kind of draw down with an unfathomable amount of money on the line you want to at least mitigate that position right at least get back to break even so if we understand the theory right there and we understand there's a bigger player in the game that wants to suffocate this person's position to their own benefit then this person in that s stop position should not get released why to that order the bigger player to their benefit because they are just switching positions they are doing the opposite of what this cell stop this breakout Trader was doing because with the cell stop right there the other person got filled on a buy with this stop loss right there that is what that is a buy stop which means the person that was in the buy position right there their take profit is above that high and that is a sell order so there they are again exchanging each other the person that has taken the loss is buying to position back from the person that just one with their takeprofit being hit right there so let's take a look at a few more so if we build on to this exact ID then on the 5 minute time frame what can we see we can see that we are taking swing lows right there and specifically I've marked out this swing low we take that swing low before we do what before we move higher and if we look a bit higher we are taking this swing low right there before we have a major move higher again and then what we see even higher we are taking out this specific swing low right there before again we are moving higher that is very interesting right well what if I tell you a secret right now that all these swing lows that I have marked out right there and the whole liquidity story that I just told you are just part of my rebalancing story because if we zoom out back to the 1 hour time frame that right here the low that I marked out on the 5 minute is what this is a fair value Gap that is a fair value Gap that small tiny trend line right there is also part of the fair value Gap right there and let me tell you even more because the low I had marked out to the left right there why that specific low because if we go into the weekly time frame then what is that low on the weekly time frame it's a fair value Gap so what have we just gone over the market either does one of two things taking liquidity or rebalancing something so offering fair value or taking liquidity what if I tell you that these two things are the exact same thing take notes on what I'm about to say if we are rebalancing something on the higher time frame that means that on the lower time frame we are taking liquidity so AR you're basically telling me that it's almost the same thing yes correct which leads me again to the same point that I made in the previous video one of them is irrelevant and which one do you think is easier to recognize as in do you think it's easier to spot out this weekly F Gap right there or do you think it's easier if we go back into the 1 hour and think ah this exact low right there is going to get swept yes but it has equal lows so we knew it was going to get swept all right well why did these equal lows right there then not get swept so the differentiator is again the fair value Gap now again this is not a video where I'm just trying to prove you oh Fair gaps are everything I need to get my right no no no I'm trying to learn you something here because we have now marked out this weekly fair value Gap right there in the form of that line then if we look at the daily time frame on The Daily time frame we can see that we have this fair value Gap sitting right there that daily FV gap on the 1 hour time frame gets traded into right there so that daily fair value Gap and now the liquidity plus the fair value gaps which arguably could be the same thing are now telling us a story remember what we had because right there in that F valap we can tell the exact same thing first of all we can tell that we again have buy stop orders right there above that high we also have sellers right there we have sellers potentially getting in on this move lower already so the liquidity story we can use the exact same thing as in this buy stop right there if we want to continue lower and we know buy stops have their stop- loss below recent swing lows right there and we tried to push lower and then we come back above that entry after that first fair value Gap lower right there that doesn't make a lot of sense right because what are we doing we are releasing orders right there we are allowing people to go break even to mitigate that position note we want to suffocate their position and not allow them to go break even to mitigate that position so that is the first sign liquidity wise that that is very suspicious but what do I say that the F gaps are telling you everything you need to know right there why is that because the fair value Gap that daily FAL Gap we are getting a new 1 hour for Val Gap lower off of that what is the market doing it's either rebalancing or taking liquidity like we mentioned right so what is that rebalancing that rebalancing is offering fair value the daily fair value Gap is where we didn't have fair value just yet so we only had sell site right there now we need to offer some buy side right there to then potentially continue lower so there we can see that price is trying to push lower and off of this fair value Gap right there the 1our value Gap we are now doing what we are not creating a new Fair Val lower so the lack of that new Fair Vala being created tells us something which means that now we are coming into this fair value gap for the second time right there remember the fair value Gap hidden secrets video If a fair value Gap is being traded into twice in other words there's a lack of displacement of new displacement there's a lack of intention it's not strong enough to push price lower what do I mean by that and what is the why behind that the why behind that is because the first time it already offered fair value and you can see that through the lens of again that liquidity and that fair value perspective that rebalancing perspective so since we already rebalanced that why should it come into it a second time if it's already rebalanced right now why are we releasing those trapped Traders so that right there is what it's a sign that right there is the sign that we do want to continue See You Higher and this daily for Gap is also the last daily for Gap that we need to overcome to then push price higher towards this high right there because that is the only premium array on The Daily time frame that we are encountering to potentially push price lower so again the no Resistance video is that if we overcome this fair value Gap then we have an easy PA towards that high which means that again if the market is rebalancing or or taking liquidity it's either doing one of two things and it didn't rebalance this and there's nothing to rebalance above that so if we go into the daily time frame then we can see that on the daily time frame we had this daily fi Gap there's nothing to rebalance above it then what is it doing it's taking liquidity what is the liquidity That Swing high so if we then go back into the 1hour time frame then the 1our time frame is first of all telling us okay we have some bearish for Value gaps now at that moment in time this is almost during Asia so that's not something you would trade right you wait for the Kill Zone you wait for the kill zone right there fair value Gap that fair value Gap with the same premise we can go into the 1 minute time frame and or the 5 minute time frame so here we are on the 5 minute time frame and this was that 1our F Val Gap this was the daily F Val Gap right there then this 1our F Val Gap is now doing what based on the fair value Theory and based on liquidity Theory and then this very simple your STD right there that is your entry and what can we also see on the one hour again it's reading those F gaps because on the 1 hour we saw this 1 hour F Val Gap right there filed to do what failed to push price lower but the deeper rooted reason is that it already offered fair value in that 1 hour fair value Gap and it did not push price lower creating a new fair value Gap off of that so there's no reason to come back above here other than to continue higher overall following through on the overall weekly for Value Gap that we had which created this weekly context from that discount array to that premium array so understanding where we are offering fair value why we are offering fair value right there why are we coming back into a certain fair value Gap why are we releasing trapped traders that in itself helps you a lot to get to your bias and again it can be done everywhere why are we sweeping this low right there very simple zoom out if you zoom out is just a 4-Hour fair value Gap offering fair value rebalancing on the higher time frame is a liquidity sweep on the lower time frame so the fair value gaps here we're again responsible for our bias narrative entry pattern everything and then the liquidity Theory that we had and the fair value theory that we also had is a Confluence is what we can build on is how we can use those arguments all right we are releasing bullish trapped Traders hm okay that's a bullish argument right because that should not happen if we are overall bearish we have already offered fair value on this bearish daily fair value Gap and we are coming back into it again hey all right that is another bullish argument that we can add to the overall argument cuz if we're bearish that should not happen this is how you create a logical story from it there's no secrets in this sometimes all it takes is logic and understanding the system to hack a system you first need to fully understand the system so understanding fair value gaps here will allow you to understand which liquidity will be targeted because this weekly forap that we had at the bottom right there is not just something you can trade off of all this price action in the F gaps lower right there 1 2 3 four that got traded into and pushed price lower and if you were able to capitalize on one of those vag sorry five five actually before we delivered into the weekly for Gap if you are able to capitalize on even the last one then you are doing a fantastic job and you knew exactly which low which liquidity was the target and this is again how you use liquidity plus fair value gaps to make your money so now since we are approaching the holidays season and a new enrollment is currently starting for the money-making team I think it's the right time to present the deal next enrollment so this enrollment that is currently going on will consist of more videos than previous enrollments which means more value for the same exact amount of money since you are of course receiving more videos more value it means you are probably going to need some more time right you're probably going to need a few extra days to process it all so everyone that is a member of the moneymaking team and that is the essentials plus the masterclass monthly options will'll get a whole week 7 days for free added onto your subscription meaning that your first month or if you were already member will be five weeks in instead of four and it's the last enrollment that we will have the same prices afterwards due to demand and due to the amount of hours of content and the amount of value inside the mhip the price will simply increase and that will happen in the beginning of 2024 now the best way you can thank me and again that can all be done through my free YouTube here is by getting funded and making more money than you invested having a great Roi that's our goal here and that is very doable again Link in the description to sign up for the moneymaking team it's on wap.com and then I want to thank you and I'll see you tomorrow on Sunday at the weekly forecast of course 8:30 a.m. New York local time all right perfect love you thank you

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