Linear Regression Candles indicators Trading Strategy | एकदम Accurate Buy Sell Signals
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Verdict
Real option-buying backtest. Decoded entry: price crossing its EMA on NIFTY 10-min bars → buy the ATM weekly CE (long) / PE (short), stop 30% / target 60% of premium, square-off by 15:15. Priced on real 1-minute NIFTY option premiums (GFDL, 2015–2026 — every tick of theta, IV crush and gamma is inside these prices), real charges and spread. The video trades BANKNIFTY; NIFTY weeklies are the closest instrument we have real premiums for, so the same rules were run on NIFTY.
2,070 trades on ₹1L: net +25.0% over 12 years (+2.1%/yr, roughly breaks even), win 43%, payoff 1.35 (avg win ₹2,480 / avg loss ₹-1,831), max drawdown -76%, worst trade ₹-9,318. 2015: ₹+1,353. 2016: ₹-15,606. 2017: ₹+16,327. 2018: ₹+23,375. 2019: ₹-824. 2020: ₹+5,890. 2021: ₹+1,948. 2022: ₹-26,159. 2023: ₹-36. 2024: ₹+61,362. 2025: ₹+27,643. 2026: ₹-70,290.
Option buying is convex — low win-rates are normal; the question is whether winners outrun the premium bleed. Backtested on 12 years of minute-level premium data (2015–2026; monthly contracts before 2019 — weeklies didn't exist; constant 65-unit lot); entries tested intraday as taught. Flagged for human review.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, on real NIFTY option premiums — 1 lot, ₹1L)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Net P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 76 | 46% | ₹+1,353 |
| 2016 | 114 | 41% | ₹-15,606 |
| 2017 | 128 | 52% | ₹+16,327 |
| 2018 | 188 | 43% | ₹+23,375 |
| 2019 | 170 | 41% | ₹-824 |
| 2020 | 158 | 41% | ₹+5,890 |
| 2021 | 251 | 43% | ₹+1,948 |
| 2022 | 209 | 44% | ₹-26,159 |
| 2023 | 209 | 41% | ₹-36 |
| 2024 | 146 | 45% | ₹+61,362 |
| 2025 | 270 | 43% | ₹+27,643 |
| 2026 | 151 | 37% | ₹-70,290 |
Full transcript (1450 words)
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